Download - Profu
Profu
Profu
EUs energi- och klimatpaket och dess inverkan på de nordiska energisystemen
- Resultat från NEP-projektet
Thomas Unger, Profu
Profu är ett oberoende konsult- och forskningsföretag inom energi, miljö och avfall (med kontor i Göteborg och Stockholm)
The EU energy- and climate-policy targets (”20-20-20 until 2020”)
For the EU as a whole:
Reduce GHG emissions by 20% until 2020 compared to 1990 CO2 in ETS-sector 21% by 2020 rel. 2005, CO2 in non-ETS-sector 10% by 2020 rel. 2005
Increase the share of renewables from 8,5% to 20% of total final energy use in 2020
Reduce total energy use by 20% until 2020 compared to a baseline projection for 2020
Significant impact on the Nordic energy systems that will affect most of the energy markets and sectors !
The NEP (Nordic Energy Perspectives) projectwww.nordicenergyperspectives.org
An interdisciplinary Nordic research project
Nordic focus in a European and global context
Four main research areas: Markets and structures within the energy area Development towards lower CO2 emissions and more renewables Security of supply and energy resources (e.g. potentials for renewables) Energy efficiency and resource management
Researchers from all four Nordic countries: e.g. VTT, VATT, EME Analys, ECON, Göteborgs Universitet, XRGIA, Profu, CHALMERS ..
Financiers from all four Nordic countries
Phase II : 2007-2010 (Phase I: 2005-2006)
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
Den Fin Swe Nor
%
Reduction by non-ETS sectors
-20%-16% -17%
The EU CO2-reduction target for the Nordic countries(the ETS-sector and the non-ETS sector)
The ETS sector(supply of elec+DH, industry,)
No specific Nordictarget but an all-European commitmentof reducing CO2 emissions by 21% by2020 comprd. to 2005
CO2-price assumptions (e.g. 20-40 EUR/t)
CO2-reduction by 2020 comprd. to 2005
The non-ETS sector (transports,res&comm, certain industries)
The renewable Directive and its target levelsfor the Nordic countries
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Den Fin Swe Nor Nordiccountries
%
Existing share Additional share towards 2020
+13%
+9%
+9%
+10%
+10%
In the base case, we assume:+130 TWh in the stationary system+ 30 TWh in transports (= biof.-Dir)until 2020 (comprd. to 2005) for the Nordic countries as a whole
Norway included through the EEAagreement
The scenarios of the ”EU 20-20-20” analysis
Reference scenario Existing policy instruments (incl 25 EUR/t, which we assume fulfills the CO2 target for the EU in 2020)
How far do we reach towards our ”Nordic goals” with existing policy measures?
”Green Package” scenario Existing policy instruments+Renewable target according to EU Directive (+160 TWh renewable energy (final) including transports in the Nordic countries as a whole; Biofuel Directive in transports + ~30TWh)
”Extended green package” scenario As ”Green Package” but INCLUDING increased energy efficiency with 20 % in the Nordic countries as a whole (Biofuel Directive + ~1,7 million EVs in transports → Transports take their efficiency-target share)
Profu
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
% o
f 2
00
5 (
no
rma
l ye
ar)
Ref Green package Extended green package
If all ”20%-targets are implemented, total CO2 reductions may approach 30% by 2020 !!
If all ”EU 20%-targets” are implemented, total CO2 reductions may approach 30% by 2020 !!
”Business-as-usual” (no add. policy. instr.)
”EU-20-20” by 2020
”EU-20-20-20” by 2020
Profu
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Ref Green package Greenpackage+EV
Extended greenpackage
% o
f to
tal C
O2
em
iss
ion
s in
20
05
Stat. system emissions Stat. system red.
Transp. emissions Transp. Red.
Total net
Transports in2005: ~30% of total
Reductions are mainly carried out in the stationary energy sector (up to 25% of total in 2005)
2020 emissions in different scenarios
Stat. energy in2005: ~70% of total
The impact on renewables (+ 160 TWh in tot by 2020)- The ”Green Package” scenario
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
2010 2015 2020 2030
Year
Inc
rea
se
(T
Wh
)
Hydro Biomass Wind Others Renew. in transport
Increase in the use of renewables compared to 2007
+~160 TWh
Förnybarhetsdirektivet kan väsentligt ändra dennordiska elbalansen gentemot Kontinentaleuropa
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Ne
t im
po
rt (
TW
h)
No policy measures at all Green package
Ref Green package+EV
Utan europeisk handel inom förnybarhets-direktivet kan vi få en nettoexportpå ~10-15 TWh till 2020 ...
Nordisk nettoimport
Nordisk nettoexport
…men med EU-handel inom det förnybara direktivet Ytterligare ökad elexport från Norden (~25-30 TWh)
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
Re
f
50
10
0
20
0
30
0
40
0
TW
h
Nordic export Nordic import
SEK/MWh cert
Statistics
2020
Nordic export and import to/from Germany and Poland
Diff: 25-30 TWh
The increase of renewables by 2020 (”Green package” scenario, country-by-country)
0
20
40
60
Swe Nor Den Fin
TW
h
Wind Hydro
Biomass El&DH Biomass - Ind (excl BP)
Biomass - Res&Comm Others - El&DH
Others - Res&Comm Renewables in transport
Increase in 2020compared to "2007" Roughly 50-60% of the
increase occurs in supply of electricityand district heating
The impact on renewables- All scenarios (2020)
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
Ref Green package Extended greenpackage
Inc
rea
se
be
twe
en
20
20
an
d 2
00
7 (
TW
h)
Hydro Biomass Wind Others Renew. In transports
Biofuel Directive
Biofuel Directive+ ~1.7 million EVs
Profu
Hur uppnå 20% effektivisering samfällt i Norden?- modellresultat plus kompletterande analys på energianvändningssidan
Primärenergiviktning = 1 för kärnkraft
Primärenergiviktning = 3,3 för kärnkraft
Effektiviseringsåtgärder i el- och fjärrvärmeproduktionen: < 5% Konverteringar i bostäder,
lokaler och industrin: > 5%
Effektiviseringsåtgärder i bostäder, lokaler och industrin: ca 10%
Åtgärder: KK → Vind, gaskraft,..
Åtgärder: KK→Elbesparingar,..
PJ
Källor:Sweden: Energimyndigheten, Prognoser för utsläpp och upptag av växthusgaser, Fjärrsynprojekt 2009Denmark: Energistyrelsen, Fremskrivning af Danmarks energiforbrug og udledning af drivhusgasser frem til 2025Finland: Ministry for Employment and the Economy Norway: Enova
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
7019
30
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
TWh/
year
SESE estimatedDKDK estimatedFIFI estimatedNONO estimated
15
10
5
Inbromsning av fjärrvärmen i Norden?- Kan förstärkas av effektiviseringsmålet
A large span in electricity-price development- but generally a stabilization at 40-50 EUR/MWh
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
EU
R/M
Wh
Reference scenario "Green package" scenario
Nordpool, system price
20 EUR/t+Renew Direc(+Eff. Target)
40-60 EUR/t+less renewables
Until May 2009
The shaded area indicates the interval of the main partof the model runs (includingall models of the NEPproject)
Important conclusions so far
Much more at www.nordicenergyperspectives.org !!!
The EU energy and climate package will significantly affect and involve allsectors The different EU goals may affect the energy markets in different/opposite ways Total Nordic CO2 emissions may be reduced by ~ 30 % by 2020 (comprdto 2005) if the three EU goals are implemented Nordic electricity supply almost CO2-free by 2020 (nuclear, renew. but hardlyCCS…) if EU targets are met (fossil share: ~5-10% of total supply) Energy-efficiency goal seems to dominate: most expensive and tends to ”solve” also the other two goals Energy-efficiency goal tends to dampen the increase in renewables (inabsolute numbers) and to reduce the use of DH and electricity Trade-off between different sectors, e.g. ETS and non-ETS or heating market and electricity market Important flexibility Goals should not be too sector-specific !