Profu

Profu

EUs energi- och klimatpaket och dess inverkan på de nordiska energisystemen

- Resultat från NEP-projektet

Thomas Unger, Profu

Profu är ett oberoende konsult- och forskningsföretag inom energi, miljö och avfall (med kontor i Göteborg och Stockholm)

The EU energy- and climate-policy targets (”20-20-20 until 2020”)

For the EU as a whole:

Reduce GHG emissions by 20% until 2020 compared to 1990 CO2 in ETS-sector 21% by 2020 rel. 2005, CO2 in non-ETS-sector 10% by 2020 rel. 2005

Increase the share of renewables from 8,5% to 20% of total final energy use in 2020

Reduce total energy use by 20% until 2020 compared to a baseline projection for 2020

Significant impact on the Nordic energy systems that will affect most of the energy markets and sectors !

The NEP (Nordic Energy Perspectives) projectwww.nordicenergyperspectives.org

An interdisciplinary Nordic research project

Nordic focus in a European and global context

Four main research areas: Markets and structures within the energy area Development towards lower CO2 emissions and more renewables Security of supply and energy resources (e.g. potentials for renewables) Energy efficiency and resource management

Researchers from all four Nordic countries: e.g. VTT, VATT, EME Analys, ECON, Göteborgs Universitet, XRGIA, Profu, CHALMERS ..

Financiers from all four Nordic countries

Phase II : 2007-2010 (Phase I: 2005-2006)

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-20

-15

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-5

0

Den Fin Swe Nor

%

Reduction by non-ETS sectors

-20%-16% -17%

The EU CO2-reduction target for the Nordic countries(the ETS-sector and the non-ETS sector)

The ETS sector(supply of elec+DH, industry,)

No specific Nordictarget but an all-European commitmentof reducing CO2 emissions by 21% by2020 comprd. to 2005

CO2-price assumptions (e.g. 20-40 EUR/t)

CO2-reduction by 2020 comprd. to 2005

The non-ETS sector (transports,res&comm, certain industries)

The renewable Directive and its target levelsfor the Nordic countries

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Den Fin Swe Nor Nordiccountries

%

Existing share Additional share towards 2020

+13%

+9%

+9%

+10%

+10%

In the base case, we assume:+130 TWh in the stationary system+ 30 TWh in transports (= biof.-Dir)until 2020 (comprd. to 2005) for the Nordic countries as a whole

Norway included through the EEAagreement

The scenarios of the ”EU 20-20-20” analysis

Reference scenario Existing policy instruments (incl 25 EUR/t, which we assume fulfills the CO2 target for the EU in 2020)

How far do we reach towards our ”Nordic goals” with existing policy measures?

”Green Package” scenario Existing policy instruments+Renewable target according to EU Directive (+160 TWh renewable energy (final) including transports in the Nordic countries as a whole; Biofuel Directive in transports + ~30TWh)

”Extended green package” scenario As ”Green Package” but INCLUDING increased energy efficiency with 20 % in the Nordic countries as a whole (Biofuel Directive + ~1,7 million EVs in transports → Transports take their efficiency-target share)

Profu

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1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

% o

f 2

00

5 (

no

rma

l ye

ar)

Ref Green package Extended green package

If all ”20%-targets are implemented, total CO2 reductions may approach 30% by 2020 !!

If all ”EU 20%-targets” are implemented, total CO2 reductions may approach 30% by 2020 !!

”Business-as-usual” (no add. policy. instr.)

”EU-20-20” by 2020

”EU-20-20-20” by 2020

Profu

0

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Ref Green package Greenpackage+EV

Extended greenpackage

% o

f to

tal C

O2

em

iss

ion

s in

20

05

Stat. system emissions Stat. system red.

Transp. emissions Transp. Red.

Total net

Transports in2005: ~30% of total

Reductions are mainly carried out in the stationary energy sector (up to 25% of total in 2005)

2020 emissions in different scenarios

Stat. energy in2005: ~70% of total

The impact on renewables (+ 160 TWh in tot by 2020)- The ”Green Package” scenario

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2010 2015 2020 2030

Year

Inc

rea

se

(T

Wh

)

Hydro Biomass Wind Others Renew. in transport

Increase in the use of renewables compared to 2007

+~160 TWh

Förnybarhetsdirektivet kan väsentligt ändra dennordiska elbalansen gentemot Kontinentaleuropa

-20

-10

0

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2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Ne

t im

po

rt (

TW

h)

No policy measures at all Green package

Ref Green package+EV

Utan europeisk handel inom förnybarhets-direktivet kan vi få en nettoexportpå ~10-15 TWh till 2020 ...

Nordisk nettoimport

Nordisk nettoexport

…men med EU-handel inom det förnybara direktivet Ytterligare ökad elexport från Norden (~25-30 TWh)

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Nordic export Nordic import

SEK/MWh cert

Statistics

2020

Nordic export and import to/from Germany and Poland

Diff: 25-30 TWh

The increase of renewables by 2020 (”Green package” scenario, country-by-country)

0

20

40

60

Swe Nor Den Fin

TW

h

Wind Hydro

Biomass El&DH Biomass - Ind (excl BP)

Biomass - Res&Comm Others - El&DH

Others - Res&Comm Renewables in transport

Increase in 2020compared to "2007" Roughly 50-60% of the

increase occurs in supply of electricityand district heating

The impact on renewables- All scenarios (2020)

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Ref Green package Extended greenpackage

Inc

rea

se

be

twe

en

20

20

an

d 2

00

7 (

TW

h)

Hydro Biomass Wind Others Renew. In transports

Biofuel Directive

Biofuel Directive+ ~1.7 million EVs

Profu

Hur uppnå 20% effektivisering samfällt i Norden?- modellresultat plus kompletterande analys på energianvändningssidan

Primärenergiviktning = 1 för kärnkraft

Primärenergiviktning = 3,3 för kärnkraft

Effektiviseringsåtgärder i el- och fjärrvärmeproduktionen: < 5% Konverteringar i bostäder,

lokaler och industrin: > 5%

Effektiviseringsåtgärder i bostäder, lokaler och industrin: ca 10%

Åtgärder: KK → Vind, gaskraft,..

Åtgärder: KK→Elbesparingar,..

PJ

Källor:Sweden: Energimyndigheten, Prognoser för utsläpp och upptag av växthusgaser, Fjärrsynprojekt 2009Denmark: Energistyrelsen, Fremskrivning af Danmarks energiforbrug og udledning af drivhusgasser frem til 2025Finland: Ministry for Employment and the Economy Norway: Enova

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TWh/

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SESE estimatedDKDK estimatedFIFI estimatedNONO estimated

15

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Inbromsning av fjärrvärmen i Norden?- Kan förstärkas av effektiviseringsmålet

A large span in electricity-price development- but generally a stabilization at 40-50 EUR/MWh

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1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

EU

R/M

Wh

Reference scenario "Green package" scenario

Nordpool, system price

20 EUR/t+Renew Direc(+Eff. Target)

40-60 EUR/t+less renewables

Until May 2009

The shaded area indicates the interval of the main partof the model runs (includingall models of the NEPproject)

Important conclusions so far

Much more at www.nordicenergyperspectives.org !!!

The EU energy and climate package will significantly affect and involve allsectors The different EU goals may affect the energy markets in different/opposite ways Total Nordic CO2 emissions may be reduced by ~ 30 % by 2020 (comprdto 2005) if the three EU goals are implemented Nordic electricity supply almost CO2-free by 2020 (nuclear, renew. but hardlyCCS…) if EU targets are met (fossil share: ~5-10% of total supply) Energy-efficiency goal seems to dominate: most expensive and tends to ”solve” also the other two goals Energy-efficiency goal tends to dampen the increase in renewables (inabsolute numbers) and to reduce the use of DH and electricity Trade-off between different sectors, e.g. ETS and non-ETS or heating market and electricity market Important flexibility Goals should not be too sector-specific !