Download - Pultry industry in north america
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Poultry industry in North America
Los Cabos, Baja California Sur
June 13, 2008
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2
Consumer confidence in the US
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jun-
97N
ov-9
7Ap
r-98
Sep-
98Fe
b-99
Jul-9
9D
ec-9
9M
ay-0
0O
ct-0
0M
ar-0
1Au
g-01
Jan-
02Ju
n-02
Nov
-02
Apr-
03Se
p-03
Feb-
04Ju
l-04
Dec
-04
May
-05
Oct
-05
Mar
-06
Aug-
06Ja
n-07
Jun-
07N
ov-0
7Ap
r-08
Consumer Confidence Index (1985=100)
Consumer Expectations Index (1985=100)
Source: Polling report with data from the Conference BoardNext data release: June 24
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3
Consumer confidence in Mexico
(2003=100)Source: INEGINext data release: June 4
90
95
100
105
110
Jan-
05Fe
b-05
Mar
-05
Apr-0
5M
ay-0
5Ju
n-05
Jul-0
5A
ug-0
5S
ep-0
5O
ct-0
5N
ov-0
5D
ec-0
5Ja
n-06
Feb-
06M
ar-0
6Ap
r-06
May
-06
Jun-
06Ju
l-06
Aug
-06
Sep
-06
Oct
-06
Nov
-06
Dec
-06
Jan-
07Fe
b-07
Mar
-07
Apr-0
7M
ay-0
7Ju
n-07
Jul-0
7A
ug-0
7S
ep-0
7O
ct-0
7N
ov-0
7D
ec-0
7Ja
n-08
Feb-
08M
ar-0
8Ap
r-08
May
-08
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Global indicator of economic activity
125
130
135
140
145
150
155
Source: INEGI (1993=100), seasonally adjusted
Next data release: May 29
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5
Industrial production growth
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
Jan-
06
Feb-
06
Mar
-06
Apr
-06
May
-06
Jun-
06
Jul-0
6
Aug
-06
Sep
-06
Oct
-06
Nov
-06
Dec
-06
Jan-
07
Feb-
07
Mar
-07
Apr
-07
May
-07
Jun-
07
Jul-0
7
Aug
-07
Sep
-07
Oct
-07
Nov
-07
Dec
-07
Jan-
08
Feb-
08
Mar
-08
(%)
Total Manufacturing
Annual growth rate
Source: INEGI, data set 2003=100Next data release: June 25
* In 2008, holly week in Mexico occurred last March while in 2007 it took place in April. This leap implied less days of economic activity in March than in the previous year
* Holly week in March
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10,000,000
11,000,000
12,000,000
13,000,000
14,000,000
15,000,000
Jan-
98
Jun-
98
Nov
-98
Apr-
99
Sep-
99
Feb-
00
Jul-0
0
Dec
-00
May
-01
Oct
-01
Mar
-02
Aug-
02
Jan-
03
Jun-
03
Nov
-03
Apr-
04
Sep-
04
Feb-
05
Jul-0
5
Dec
-05
May
-06
Oct
-06
Mar
-07
Aug-
07
Jan-
08
Employment in formal sector
Source: Insured workers at the Mexican Institute of Social Security (IMSS)
Next data release: June 18
Abr-08
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GDP annual growth*
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
2005Q1 2005Q2 2005Q3 2005Q4 2006Q1 2006Q2 2006Q3 2006Q4 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1
US Mexico
*/ Real Gross Domestic Product: percent change from quarter one year agoSource: INEGI y USDOC
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Mexico’s export performance
Annual Growth Rate
Source: INEGI and USDOC
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Total US
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Mexico’s monthly export performance
*/ Percentage change from the month a year ago
Source:INEGI y USDOC
Annual Growth Rate*
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Aug
-06
Sep
-06
Oct
-06
Nov
-06
Dec
-06
Jan-
07
Feb-
07
Mar
-07
Apr
-07
May
-07
Jun-
07
Jul-0
7
Aug
-07
Sep
-07
Oct
-07
Nov
-07
Dec
-07
Jan-
08
Feb-
08
Mar
-08
Apr
-08
US Total
Next data release: June 14 for the US and June 10 for Mexico
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Share of US total imports
Source: USDOC
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Mexico Canada Germany China Japan
Per
cent
age
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Gross fixed Investment in Mexico
Annual growth rate
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan-
05Fe
b-05
Mar
-05
Apr-
05M
ay-0
5Ju
n-05
Jul-0
5Au
g-05
Sep-
05O
ct-0
5N
ov-0
5D
ec-0
5Ja
n-06
Feb-
06M
ar-0
6Ap
r-06
May
-06
Jun-
06Ju
l-06
Aug-
06Se
p-06
Oct
-06
Nov
-06
Dec
-06
Jan-
07Fe
b-07
Mar
-07
Apr-
07M
ay-0
7Ju
n-07
Jul-0
7Au
g-07
Sep-
07O
ct-0
7N
ov-0
7D
ec-0
7Ja
n-08
Feb-
08M
ar-0
8
Perc
enta
ge
Total Machinery and Equipment
Source: INEGINext data release: June 15
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Mexico’s imports of capital goods
Source: INEGI
Monthly Growth(Variation over the same month of the last year)
Next data release: July 10
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Aug-
06
Sep-
06
Oct
-06
Nov
-06
Dec
-06
Jan-
07
Feb-
07
Mar
-07
Apr-
07
May
-07
Jun-
07
Jul-0
7
Aug-
07
Sep-
07
Oct
-07
Nov
-07
Dec
-07
Jan-
08
Feb-
08
Mar
-08
Apr-
08
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2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
Jan-
03Fe
b-03
Mar
-03
Apr-
03M
ay-0
3Ju
n-03
Jul-0
3Au
g-03
Sep-
03O
ct-0
3N
ov-0
3D
ec-0
3Ja
n-04
Feb-
04M
ar-0
4Ap
r-04
May
-04
Jun-
04Ju
l-04
Aug-
04Se
p-04
Oct
-04
Nov
-04
Dec
-04
Jan-
05Fe
b-05
Mar
-05
Apr-
05M
ay-0
5Ju
n-05
Jul-0
5Au
g-05
Sep-
05O
ct-0
5N
ov-0
5D
ec-0
5Ja
n-06
Feb-
06M
ar-0
6Ap
r-06
May
-06
Jun-
06Ju
l-06
Aug-
06Se
p-06
Oct
-06
Nov
-06
Dec
-06
Jan-
07Fe
b-07
Mar
-07
Apr-
07M
ay-0
7Ju
n-07
Jul-0
7Au
g-07
Sep-
07O
ct-0
7N
ov-0
7D
ec-0
7Ja
n-08
Feb-
08M
ar-0
8Ap
r-08
May
-08
%
Source: INEGINext data release: July 7
Mexico's inflation begins to pick up
Monthly series: annual inflation
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Government of Mexico has taken measures
Opening of grains and animal feed to international markets
Agricultural support: fertilizers, diesel
Income complement to poor consumers
Constant gasoline and diesel prices
No export promotion ideas
Congressional elections July 2009
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Real food prices in Mexico
*CPI= National Consumer Price Index, January 1994 = 100 Source: Banxico
55
65
75
85
95
105
Jan-
90A
pr-9
0Ju
l-90
Oct
-90
Jan-
91A
pr-9
1Ju
l-91
Oct
-91
Jan-
92A
pr-9
2Ju
l-92
Oct
-92
Jan-
93A
pr-9
3Ju
l-93
Oct
-93
Jan-
94A
pr-9
4Ju
l-94
Oct
-94
Jan-
95A
pr-9
5Ju
l-95
Oct
-95
Jan-
96A
pr-9
6Ju
l-96
Oct
-96
Jan-
97A
pr-9
7Ju
l-97
Oct
-97
Jan-
98A
pr-9
8Ju
l-98
Oct
-98
Jan-
99A
pr-9
9Ju
l-99
Oct
-99
Jan-
00A
pr-0
0Ju
l-00
Oct
-00
Jan-
01A
pr-0
1Ju
l-01
Oct
-01
Jan-
02A
pr-0
2Ju
l-02
Oct
-02
Jan-
03A
pr-0
3Ju
l-03
Oct
-03
Jan-
04A
pr-0
4Ju
l-04
Oct
-04
Jan-
05A
pr-0
5Ju
l-05
Oct
-05
Jan-
06A
pr-0
6Ju
l-06
Oct
-06
Jan-
07A
pr-0
7Ju
l-07
Oct
-07
Jan-
08A
pr-0
8
Food Meat Milk, Dairy Products and Eggs
Food Prices Relative to the CPI*
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Real meat prices in Mexico
*CPI= National Consumer Price Index, January 1994 = 100 Source: Banxico
Meat Prices Relative to the CPI*
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Ene
-90
Abr
-90
Jul-9
0O
ct-9
0E
ne-9
1A
br-9
1Ju
l-91
Oct
-91
Ene
-92
Abr
-92
Jul-9
2O
ct-9
2E
ne-9
3A
br-9
3Ju
l-93
Oct
-93
Ene
-94
Abr
-94
Jul-9
4O
ct-9
4E
ne-9
5A
br-9
5Ju
l-95
Oct
-95
Ene
-96
Abr
-96
Jul-9
6O
ct-9
6E
ne-9
7A
br-9
7Ju
l-97
Oct
-97
Ene
-98
Abr
-98
Jul-9
8O
ct-9
8E
ne-9
9A
br-9
9Ju
l-99
Oct
-99
Ene
-00
Abr
-00
Jul-0
0O
ct-0
0E
ne-0
1A
br-0
1Ju
l-01
Oct
-01
Ene
-02
Abr
-02
Jul-0
2O
ct-0
2E
ne-0
3A
br-0
3Ju
l-03
Oct
-03
Ene
-04
Abr
-04
Jul-0
4O
ct-0
4E
ne-0
5A
br-0
5Ju
l-05
Oct
-05
Ene
-06
Abr
-06
Jul-0
6O
ct-0
6E
ne-0
7A
br-0
7Ju
l-07
Oct
-07
Ene
-08
Abr
-08
Poultry Swine Beef
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17
Real corn prices in Mexico
*CPI= National Consumer Price Index, January 1994 = 100 Source: Banxico
Corn Prices Relative to the CPI*
75
90
105
120
Ene
-90
Abr
-90
Jul-9
0O
ct-9
0E
ne-9
1A
br-9
1Ju
l-91
Oct
-91
Ene
-92
Abr
-92
Jul-9
2O
ct-9
2E
ne-9
3A
br-9
3Ju
l-93
Oct
-93
Ene
-94
Abr
-94
Jul-9
4O
ct-9
4E
ne-9
5A
br-9
5Ju
l-95
Oct
-95
Ene
-96
Abr
-96
Jul-9
6O
ct-9
6E
ne-9
7A
br-9
7Ju
l-97
Oct
-97
Ene
-98
Abr
-98
Jul-9
8O
ct-9
8E
ne-9
9A
br-9
9Ju
l-99
Oct
-99
Ene
-00
Abr
-00
Jul-0
0O
ct-0
0E
ne-0
1A
br-0
1Ju
l-01
Oct
-01
Ene
-02
Abr
-02
Jul-0
2O
ct-0
2E
ne-0
3A
br-0
3Ju
l-03
Oct
-03
Ene
-04
Abr
-04
Jul-0
4O
ct-0
4E
ne-0
5A
br-0
5Ju
l-05
Oct
-05
Ene
-06
Abr
-06
Jul-0
6O
ct-0
6E
ne-0
7A
br-0
7Ju
l-07
Oct
-07
Ene
-08
Abr
-08
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18*NPPI= National Producer Price Index, January 1994 = 100 Source: Banxico
Real producer prices in Mexico
Grains-based Animal Feed Prices Relative to the NPPI*
80
95
110
125
140
155
170
Jan-
94A
pr-9
4Ju
l-94
Oct
-94
Jan-
95A
pr-9
5Ju
l-95
Oct
-95
Jan-
96A
pr-9
6Ju
l-96
Oct
-96
Jan-
97A
pr-9
7Ju
l-97
Oct
-97
Jan-
98A
pr-9
8Ju
l-98
Oct
-98
Jan-
99A
pr-9
9Ju
l-99
Oct
-99
Jan-
00A
pr-0
0Ju
l-00
Oct
-00
Jan-
01A
pr-0
1Ju
l-01
Oct
-01
Jan-
02A
pr-0
2Ju
l-02
Oct
-02
Jan-
03A
pr-0
3Ju
l-03
Oct
-03
Jan-
04A
pr-0
4Ju
l-04
Oct
-04
Jan-
05A
pr-0
5Ju
l-05
Oct
-05
Jan-
06A
pr-0
6Ju
l-06
Oct
-06
Jan-
07A
pr-0
7Ju
l-07
Oct
-07
Jan-
08A
pr-0
8
Wheat Mill Corn Mill Animal Feed Products
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19
Target US federal funds rateand oil prices
Source: Federal Reserve Board, “Intended Federal Funds Rate” and PEMEX
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
4.00%
4.50%
5.00%
5.50%
Jan-
05
Mar
-05
May
-05
Jul-0
5
Sep
-05
Nov
-05
Jan-
06
Mar
-06
May
-06
Jul-0
6
Sep
-06
Nov
-06
Jan-
07
Mar
-07
May
-07
Jul-0
7
Sep
-07
Nov
-07
Jan-
08
Mar
-08
May
-08
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
West Texas Intermediate Brent Mexican blend Intended Federal Funds rate
$ U
SRat
e
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Commodity prices
Source: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development; Addressing the Global Food Crisis: Key trade, investment and commodity policies in ensuring sustainable food security and alleviating poverty
Dol
lars
per
ton
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21
Inflation rates
Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook 2008
-2
3
8
13
18
23
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Canada China Japan Mexico United States
%
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22
A devalued U.S. dollar
Source: Factiva.
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.7
31-m
ay-0
8
31-m
ar-0
8
31-J
an-2
008
30-n
ov-0
7
30-s
ep-0
7
31-ju
l-07
31-m
ay-0
7
31-m
ar-0
7
31-J
an-2
007
30-n
ov-0
6
30-s
ep-0
6
31-ju
l-06
31-m
ay-0
6
31-m
ar-0
6
31-J
an-2
006
30-n
ov-0
5
30-s
ep-0
5
31-ju
l-05
31-m
ay-0
5
31-m
ar-0
5
31-J
an-2
005
30-n
ov-0
4
30-s
ep-0
4
31-ju
l-04
31-m
ay-0
4
31-m
ar-0
4
31-J
an-2
004
30-n
ov-0
3
30-s
ep-0
3
31-ju
l-03
Canadian Dollar Euro
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23
U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate
Source: Factiva.
0.08
0.09
0.1
0.11
0.12
0.13
0.14
0.15
31-m
ay-0
8
31-m
ar-0
8
31-J
an-2
008
30-n
ov-0
7
30-s
ep-0
7
31-ju
l-07
31-m
ay-0
7
31-m
ar-0
7
31-J
an-2
007
30-n
ov-0
6
30-s
ep-0
6
31-ju
l-06
31-m
ay-0
6
31-m
ar-0
6
31-J
an-2
006
30-n
ov-0
5
30-s
ep-0
5
31-ju
l-05
31-m
ay-0
5
31-m
ar-0
5
31-J
an-2
005
30-n
ov-0
4
30-s
ep-0
4
31-ju
l-04
31-m
ay-0
4
31-m
ar-0
4
31-J
an-2
004
30-n
ov-0
3
30-s
ep-0
3
31-ju
l-03
Yuan Mexican peso
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24
US total exports: sorghum
*/ Export volume data for HTS 100700, Grain Sorghum
Source: Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
5,500,000
6,000,000
6,500,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Volume, MT
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US export growth: sorghum
*/ Export volume data for HTS 100700, Grain Sorghum
Source: Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Total Mexico
Annual growth
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US exports by market: sorghum
*/ 2007 country ranking. Export volume data for HTS 100700, Grain Sorghum
Source: Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
1- Mexico
2- Spain
3- Japan
4- France
5- Netherlands
US Top Export Markets(Volume MT)
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US total exports: corn
*/ Export volume data for HTS 100590, Corn
Source: Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics
Volume, MT
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
50,000,000
55,000,000
60,000,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
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US export growth: corn
*/ Export volume data for HTS 100590, Corn
Source: Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics
Annual growth
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Total Japan Mexico
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US exports by market: corn
*/ 2007 country ranking. Export volume data for HTS 100590, Corn
Source: Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics
US Top Export Markets(Volume MT)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
1- Japan
2- Mexico
3- Republic ofKorea
4- Taiwan
5- Egypt
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US total exports: soybeans
17,500,000
19,500,000
21,500,000
23,500,000
25,500,000
27,500,000
29,500,000
31,500,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Volume, MT
*/ Export volume data for HTS 120100, Soy Beans
Source: Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics
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US export growth: soybeans
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Total China Mexico
*/ Export volume data for HTS 120100, Soy Beans
Source: Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics
Annual growth
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US exports by market: soybeans
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
1- China
2- Mexico
3- Japan
4- Taiwan
5- Indonesia
US Top Export Markets(Volume, MT)
*/ 2007 country ranking. Export volume data for HTS 120100, Soy Beans
Source: Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics
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50,000
70,000
90,000
110,000
130,000
150,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
US total exports: live poultry
Value, thousand dollars
*/ Export volume data for HTS 0105, live poultry
Source: Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics
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0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
1- Canada
2- Mexico
3- China
4- Thailand
5- Brazil
US exports by market: live poultry
US Top Export Markets(Value, thousand dollars)
*/ Export volume data for HTS 0105, Live Poultry
Source: Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics
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1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
US total exports: poultry meat
Value, thousand dollars
*/ Export volume data for HTS 0207, Poultry Meat
Source: Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics
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US exports by market: poultry meat
US Top Export Markets(Value, thousand dollars)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
1- Russia
3- Mexico
5- Hong Kong
4 Canada
2- China
*/ Export volume data for HTS 0207, meat poultry poultry
Source: Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics
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North American integration
Integrated grain market
Integrated sanitary region
Integrated labor market
Integrated consumer market
Integrated export market
Thank you Obama, thank you Hillary
Need to develop an agenda
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An agenda for North American integration
Health care
Education and training
Nafta visas
Mutual recognition
Land grant universities
Bicentennial Scholarship fund
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An agenda for North American integration
Joint sanitary control programs
Services
Transport (all modes)
Infrastructure
Joint exports
Promotion
Cummulation