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Quality of current PM emission inventories
Kristin Rypdal, Chair of Task Force on Emission Inventories and Projections
With input from Zbigniew Klimont (IIASA), Vigdis Vestreng (MSC-W) and Brinda Wachs (UNECE Secretariat)
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Overview
• Emission estimates– Reporting requirements– Sources– Trends
• Completeness in reporting
• Uncertainties
• TFEIP work– PM task group– Emission Inventory Guidebook– Review– Guidelines revisions
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Emission estimates – reporting requirements
• TSP, PM10 and PM2.5 are part of the EMEP emission reporting tables
• How mandatory?– Not linked to any Protocol– EB decision 2002/10 links reporting to Convention itself and
specifically mentions PM (”should exchange available information on … data on emissions”)
• Conclusion: Weaker obligations than for main pollutants, but part of ”expected” reporting
• 29 of 33 Parties included data on at least one PM in 2005
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Emission estimates – sources
Sectoral emissions of PM10 in EU-25 (IIASA RAINS calculations), estimate for the year 2000, total about 2.5 Tg
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
10:Agriculture
9:Waste treatment and disposal
8:Other mobile sources and machinery
7:Road transport
5:Extraction and distribution
4:Production processes
3:Combustion in manufacturing industry
2:Non-industrial combustion plants
1:Combustion in energy industries
Emissions, Gg
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Emission estimates – sources
Sectoral emissions of PM10 in Europe (IIASA RAINS calculations)
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
10:Agriculture
9:Waste treatment and disposal
8:Other mobile sources and machinery
7:Road transport
5:Extraction and distribution
4:Production processes
3:Combustion in manufacturing industry
2:Non-industrial combustion plants
1:Combustion in energy industries
Share in totalEU-25 non-EU
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Emission estimates – trends
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
TSP PM10 PM2.5
1990
1995
2000
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Completeness
49
33
28
19
6
23
6
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
All Parties
All Parties reported
At least one PM reported
All PM reported
TSP only
Sector data a.l. one PM
Time series PM10 and PM2.5
Number of Parties
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Completeness
PM2.5 reporting for year 2003
0 %
20 %
40 %
60 %
80 %
100 %
value
NR
C
IE
NA
NE
NO
0
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Uncertainties
• PM Scientific workshop in 2004 (EC JRC/TFEIP)– Methods are available for most sources, but has often not been
developed into guidance– Methods are rarely available for fugitive sources
• Activity data: – Residential wood consumption and small-scale burning more
uncertain than fossil fuel combustion. – Activity data to estimate fugitive sources can be unavailable
• Generally higher uncertain than for current inventories of the main pollutants– Can be improved over time
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RAINS emission estimates for VOC vs. national inventories, 2000
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%A
ustr
ia
Bel
gium
Den
mar
k
Fin
land
Fra
nce
Ger
man
y
Gre
ece
Irel
and
Italy
Luxe
mbo
urg
Net
herla
nds
Por
tuga
l
Spa
in
Sw
eden UK
Tot
al E
U-1
5
Cyp
rus
Cze
ch R
ep.
Est
onia
Hun
gary
Latv
ia
Lith
uani
a
Mal
ta
Pol
and
Slo
vaki
a
Slo
veni
a
Tot
al N
MS
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RAINS emission estimates for PM2.5 vs. national inventories, 2000
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%
175%A
ustria
Belg
ium
Denm
ark
Fin
land
France
Germ
any
Greece
Irela
nd
Italy
Luxem
bourg
Netherla
nds
Portugal
Spain
Sw
eden
UK
Total E
U-15
Cyprus
Czech R
ep.
Estonia
Hungary
Latvia
Lithuania
Malta
Pola
nd
Slo
vakia
Slo
venia
Total N
MS
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TFEIP work – PM task group
• Establishment of a PM Task Group under TFEIP to i.a. – Review the immediate requirements of modelers
• Chemical and size speciation• Slow progress due to resource problems, but intends to conclude
before September
– Propose priorities for methodology development
• Nearly 2/3 of the active PM Task Group members represents emission inventory community with others coming from measurement field– No specific funding; relying on resources from other projects
(spill-off)
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TFEIP work – Emission Inventory Guidebook
• The Guidebook does not appropriately cover PM methodologies
• A number of PM sources are missing in reporting formats and guidebook; several of them, however, relevant only for coarse particles– Landfills– Animal houses and crop production – Heavy construction works – Wood products (sawmills, particle-/fiberboard, plywood)– Coal production, handling and storage– Mineral ore mining processes (incl. handling and storage)
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TFEIP work – Emission Inventory Guidebook (cont.)
• Priorities have been identified– Small-scale and industrial combustion – Processes in iron and steel industries– Off-road sources – Residential waste combustion – Burning of agricultural residues – Some ”new sources”– Validation of factors across UNECE area
• Animal houses and crop production are under development
• Chapter on small combustion sources recently updated
• Progress is unfortunately slow with the current resources available….
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TFEIP work – Emission Inventory Guidebook (cont.)
• May need new emission measurements (for some sources literature data scarce, old, not representative or simply unavailable)
• Natural PM emissions (wind blown dust, sea salt, volcanoes, biomass burning, pollen) will be addressed in the NatAir project (EU 6th Framework Research programme)
• Focus on size speciated emissions, chemical composition has been so far a second priority
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Methodology - technology
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TFEIP work – review
• PM data reported are included in the Synthesis and Assessment to review consistency and comparability
• At present focus is on completeness and major inconsistencies in reporting– Reporting is at present not at a level that enables a review of
quality from a scientific point of view
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TFEIP work – Guidelines revisions
• Emission reporting guidelines will be revised in 2007– Work starting up in 2006
• Need to consider role of PM reporting in the revised Guidelines– Size species to be reported?
– Chemical speciation available for review?
– Status of reporting requirements• Need for increase in clarity?
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Conclusions
• Quality of PM emission data are not as good as for other main pollutants and few Parties report complete data
• Quality is expected to increase due to increase in experiences with reporting, policy focus and understanding of source characteristics
• TFEIP is working to improve methodology guidance over the next years– New resources may become available; driven by the current
policy debate