Quality of current PM emission inventories

Kristin Rypdal, Chair of Task Force on Emission Inventories and Projections

With input from Zbigniew Klimont (IIASA), Vigdis Vestreng (MSC-W) and Brinda Wachs (UNECE Secretariat)

Overview

• Emission estimates– Reporting requirements– Sources– Trends

• Completeness in reporting

• Uncertainties

• TFEIP work– PM task group– Emission Inventory Guidebook– Review– Guidelines revisions

Emission estimates – reporting requirements

• TSP, PM10 and PM2.5 are part of the EMEP emission reporting tables

• How mandatory?– Not linked to any Protocol– EB decision 2002/10 links reporting to Convention itself and

specifically mentions PM (”should exchange available information on … data on emissions”)

• Conclusion: Weaker obligations than for main pollutants, but part of ”expected” reporting

• 29 of 33 Parties included data on at least one PM in 2005

Emission estimates – sources

Sectoral emissions of PM10 in EU-25 (IIASA RAINS calculations), estimate for the year 2000, total about 2.5 Tg

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

10:Agriculture

9:Waste treatment and disposal

8:Other mobile sources and machinery

7:Road transport

5:Extraction and distribution

4:Production processes

3:Combustion in manufacturing industry

2:Non-industrial combustion plants

1:Combustion in energy industries

Emissions, Gg

Emission estimates – sources

Sectoral emissions of PM10 in Europe (IIASA RAINS calculations)

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

10:Agriculture

9:Waste treatment and disposal

8:Other mobile sources and machinery

7:Road transport

5:Extraction and distribution

4:Production processes

3:Combustion in manufacturing industry

2:Non-industrial combustion plants

1:Combustion in energy industries

Share in totalEU-25 non-EU

Emission estimates – trends

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

TSP PM10 PM2.5

1990

1995

2000

Completeness

49

33

28

19

6

23

6

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

All Parties

All Parties reported

At least one PM reported

All PM reported

TSP only

Sector data a.l. one PM

Time series PM10 and PM2.5

Number of Parties

Completeness

PM2.5 reporting for year 2003

0 %

20 %

40 %

60 %

80 %

100 %

value

NR

C

IE

NA

NE

NO

0

Uncertainties

• PM Scientific workshop in 2004 (EC JRC/TFEIP)– Methods are available for most sources, but has often not been

developed into guidance– Methods are rarely available for fugitive sources

• Activity data: – Residential wood consumption and small-scale burning more

uncertain than fossil fuel combustion. – Activity data to estimate fugitive sources can be unavailable

• Generally higher uncertain than for current inventories of the main pollutants– Can be improved over time

RAINS emission estimates for VOC vs. national inventories, 2000

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

150%A

ustr

ia

Bel

gium

Den

mar

k

Fin

land

Fra

nce

Ger

man

y

Gre

ece

Irel

and

Italy

Luxe

mbo

urg

Net

herla

nds

Por

tuga

l

Spa

in

Sw

eden UK

Tot

al E

U-1

5

Cyp

rus

Cze

ch R

ep.

Est

onia

Hun

gary

Latv

ia

Lith

uani

a

Mal

ta

Pol

and

Slo

vaki

a

Slo

veni

a

Tot

al N

MS

RAINS emission estimates for PM2.5 vs. national inventories, 2000

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

150%

175%A

ustria

Belg

ium

Denm

ark

Fin

land

France

Germ

any

Greece

Irela

nd

Italy

Luxem

bourg

Netherla

nds

Portugal

Spain

Sw

eden

UK

Total E

U-15

Cyprus

Czech R

ep.

Estonia

Hungary

Latvia

Lithuania

Malta

Pola

nd

Slo

vakia

Slo

venia

Total N

MS

TFEIP work – PM task group

• Establishment of a PM Task Group under TFEIP to i.a. – Review the immediate requirements of modelers

• Chemical and size speciation• Slow progress due to resource problems, but intends to conclude

before September

– Propose priorities for methodology development

• Nearly 2/3 of the active PM Task Group members represents emission inventory community with others coming from measurement field– No specific funding; relying on resources from other projects

(spill-off)

TFEIP work – Emission Inventory Guidebook

• The Guidebook does not appropriately cover PM methodologies

• A number of PM sources are missing in reporting formats and guidebook; several of them, however, relevant only for coarse particles– Landfills– Animal houses and crop production – Heavy construction works – Wood products (sawmills, particle-/fiberboard, plywood)– Coal production, handling and storage– Mineral ore mining processes (incl. handling and storage)

TFEIP work – Emission Inventory Guidebook (cont.)

• Priorities have been identified– Small-scale and industrial combustion – Processes in iron and steel industries– Off-road sources – Residential waste combustion – Burning of agricultural residues – Some ”new sources”– Validation of factors across UNECE area

• Animal houses and crop production are under development

• Chapter on small combustion sources recently updated

• Progress is unfortunately slow with the current resources available….

TFEIP work – Emission Inventory Guidebook (cont.)

• May need new emission measurements (for some sources literature data scarce, old, not representative or simply unavailable)

• Natural PM emissions (wind blown dust, sea salt, volcanoes, biomass burning, pollen) will be addressed in the NatAir project (EU 6th Framework Research programme)

• Focus on size speciated emissions, chemical composition has been so far a second priority

Methodology - technology

TFEIP work – review

• PM data reported are included in the Synthesis and Assessment to review consistency and comparability

• At present focus is on completeness and major inconsistencies in reporting– Reporting is at present not at a level that enables a review of

quality from a scientific point of view

TFEIP work – Guidelines revisions

• Emission reporting guidelines will be revised in 2007– Work starting up in 2006

• Need to consider role of PM reporting in the revised Guidelines– Size species to be reported?

– Chemical speciation available for review?

– Status of reporting requirements• Need for increase in clarity?

Conclusions

• Quality of PM emission data are not as good as for other main pollutants and few Parties report complete data

• Quality is expected to increase due to increase in experiences with reporting, policy focus and understanding of source characteristics

• TFEIP is working to improve methodology guidance over the next years– New resources may become available; driven by the current

policy debate