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QUARTERLY
BUSINESS REVIEW JULY 31, 2018
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INTRODUCTION Scott Simms, DIRECTOR OF COMMUNICATIONS
S L I D E 2 B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N | Q B R J U L Y 2 0 1 8 | S C O T T S I M M S
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B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
AGENDA
Time Presentation Speaker
9:00 – 9:02 Introductions Scott Simms Director of Communications
9:02 – 9:15 State of the business: • Integrated Program Review • BP-20 rate preview
Dan James Deputy administrator
9:15 – 9:25 Finance update Mary Hawken Acting chief financial officer
9:25 – 9:35 Power Services update Joel Cook Senior VP of Power Services
9:35 – 9:45 Transmission Services update Richard Shaheen Senior VP of Transmission Services
9:45 – 9:47 Upcoming involvement opportunities
Scott Simms
9:47 – 10:00 Question and answer session
S L I D E 3 B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N | Q B R J U L Y 2 0 1 8 | S C O T T S I M M S
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STATE OF THE BUSINESS Dan James, DEPUTY ADMINISTRATOR
B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N | Q B R J U L Y 2 0 1 8 | D A N J A M E S S L I D E 4
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B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
SAFETY
S L I D E 5 B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N | Q B R J U L Y 2 0 1 8 | D A N J A M E S
0.4
0.9
1 1 1
1.1
1.3 1.3 1.3
1.2
0
0.5
1
1.5
Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sept.
Incident frequency rate Number of injuries and illnesses per 200,000 hours worked
2018 Ceiling
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B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
INTEGRATED PROGRAM REVIEW
B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N | Q B R J U L Y 2 0 1 8 | D A N J A M E S S L I D E 6
Improve cost-management discipline
Hold program costs at or below the rate of inflation
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B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
BENDING THE COST CURVE
B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N | Q B R J U L Y 2 0 1 8 | D A N J A M E S S L I D E 7
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B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
• New external webpages available on
www.bpa.gov under “Projects & Initiatives” tab.
GRID MODERNIZATION
B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N | Q B R J U L Y 2 0 1 8 | D A N J A M E S S L I D E 8
EIM
implementation
Mission critical
IT
improvements
Improvements
to core
business
Commercial
modernization
Operational
modernization
Grid Modernization Key Strategic
Initiative focus areas
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B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
• On July 25, BPA shared a rate preview based on
best available information to date.
• Power rates anticipated to increase less than
5 percent:
– Reduced net secondary revenues (+ $89 million)
– End of the rate-impact mitigation to transition Energy
Efficiency from capital to expense (+ $61 million)
– Lower capital-related costs (depreciation, principal
and interest) (- $54 million)
BP-20 RATE PREVIEW
B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N | Q B R J U L Y 2 0 1 8 | D A N J A M E S S L I D E 9
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B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
• Transmission rates anticipated to increase
approximately 10 percent:
– Depreciation study update (+ $46 million)
– Net interest expense growth (continued investment)
(+ $28 million)
– I-5 Corridor Reinforcement Project study cost write off
(+ $26 million)
BP-20 RATE PREVIEW (CONT.)
B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N | Q B R J U L Y 2 0 1 8 | D A N J A M E S S L I D E 1 0
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B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
• Comment period closes Aug. 2.
• Additional cost-management actions will be
incorporated into final decisions in August.
• Closeout report will be issued late
September/early October.
IPR NEXT STEPS
B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N | Q B R J U L Y 2 0 1 8 | D A N J A M E S S L I D E 1 1
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FINANCE Mary Hawken, ACTING CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER
S L I D E 1 2 B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N | Q B R J U L Y 2 0 1 8 | M A R Y H A W K E N
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B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
AGENCY NET REVENUES
S L I D E 1 3 B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N | Q B R J U L Y 2 0 1 8 | M A R Y H A W K E N
$26
$423
0
100
200
300
400
500
FCRPS net revenues In millions of dollars
BP-18 Rate Case Q3 Forecast
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B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
AGENCY FINANCIAL HEALTH
S L I D E 1 4 B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N | Q B R J U L Y 2 0 1 8 | M A R Y H A W K E N
$3,627 $3,653
$3,262
$3,685
3100
3250
3400
3550
3700
Total expense Total revenue
Federal Columbia River Power System Total revenue and expense in millions of dollars
BP-18 Rate Case Q3 Forecast
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B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
• Cash generated from Regional Cooperation
Debt transactions in FY 2014 and 2015.
• Non-Slice customers scheduled to get a one-
time credit in the BP-18 Rate Case.
• In FY 2017, moved the cash to reserves not for
risk in order to get a more accurate cost
recovery adjustment clause calculation.
• Changes in how the $70 million was modeled at
the start of FY 2018 led to this discrepancy.
$70 MILLION INCREASE TO RESERVES
B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N | Q B R J U L Y 2 0 1 8 | M A R Y H A W K E N S L I D E 1 5
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B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
DAYS CASH ON HAND
S L I D E 1 6
BP-18 Rate Case FY 2018 EOY forecast
Power Trans. Agency Power Trans. Agency
EOY Reserves 170 468 638 340 567 907
Reserves not for risk 149 63 212 175 95 270
Reserves available for risk 21 405 426 165 472 637
Days cash on hand 4 237 62 33 276 96
*Reserves in millions of dollars
B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N | Q B R J U L Y 2 0 1 8 | M A R Y H A W K E N
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B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
CRAC AND RDC PROBABILITY
S L I D E 1 7 B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N | Q B R J U L Y 2 0 1 8 | M A R Y H A W K E N
• The probability of a power rates CRAC is 0
percent.
• The probability of a transmission rates reserves
distribution clause is 80 percent.
252 352 452 552 652 758 1164 1264
RDC
100 200 300 400 500 606 700 800
Accumulated
calibrated
net revenue
Reserves
for risk
Q3 RFR: $637 million
Q3 ACNR: $782 million
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POWER SERVICES Joel Cook, SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT OF POWER SERVICES
S L I D E 1 8 B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N | Q B R J U L Y 2 0 1 8 | J O E L C O O K
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B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
166
208 211 213
192 201 197 196 192
0
50
100
150
200
250
Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sept.
Power total expense Total expenses in millions of dollars
BP-18 Rate Case Actuals
POWER SERVICES EXPENSE
S L I D E 1 9
Total expense (in millions of dollars)
BP-18
Rate Case
Q3 EOY
forecast
BP-18
year-to-date
Actuals
year-to-date
2,629 2,447 1,931 1,775
B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N | Q B R J U L Y 2 0 1 8 | J O E L C O O K
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B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
211 221
242
286 269
262 251
209 224
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sept.
Power total revenues Total revenues in millions of dollars
BP-18 Rate Case Actuals
POWER SERVICES REVENUES
S L I D E 2 0 B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N | Q B R J U L Y 2 0 1 8 | J O E L C O O K
Total revenues (in millions of dollars)
BP-18
Rate Case
Q3 EOY
forecast
BP-18
year-to-date
Actuals
year-to-date
2,827 2,850 2,148 2,174
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B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
WATER SUPPLY
S L I D E 2 1 B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N | Q B R J U L Y 2 0 1 8 | J O E L C O O K
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1
The Dalles historical distribution with 2018 observed flow data (January - July) Flow in thousands of cubic feet per second
10%-Max
25%-10%
50%-25%
75%-50%
90%-75%
Min-90%
Unregulated Flow
Regulated Flow
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B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
HENRY HUB PRICES
B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N | Q B R J U L Y 2 0 1 8 | J O E L C O O K S L I D E 2 2
2.88
3.01
2.82
3.69
2.67 2.69 2.8 2.8
2.97
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sept.
Henry Hub prices In dollars per one million British thermal units
Actuals June 30th NYMEX Average BP-18 Rate Case
BP-18 avg.: $3.12
6/30 avg.: $2.90
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B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
MID-C PRICES
B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N | Q B R J U L Y 2 0 1 8 | J O E L C O O K S L I D E 2 3
26.53 26.06 27.44
22.51 21.42 20.53
17.45
12.78
16.65
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sept.
Mid-C heavy load hour prices In dollars per megawatt hour
Actuals Forward market (ICE) BP-18 Rate Case
BP-18 avg.: $25.23
6/30 avg.: $24.78
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B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
POWER SERVICES CAPITAL
S L I D E 2 4 B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N | Q B R J U L Y 2 0 1 8 | J O E L C O O K
Note: capital expenditure KPI includes only direct-funded federal hydropower capital.
10 15
27
34
10 15
23 $43
$92
$137
$244
0
10
20
30
40
50
0
50
100
150
200
250
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
$ millions
Capital expenditure and work completed Tracks capital expenditure and percent of workplan completed
Planned assets Completed assets Actual $ millions FYTD Rate Case $ millions
Asset
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B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
FEDERAL HYDROPOWER RELIABILITY
S L I D E 2 5 B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N | Q B R J U L Y 2 0 1 8 | J O E L C O O K
Good
3.6
4.6 4.5
5.9
3
4
5
6
7
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Federal hydropower forced outage factor Percentage of hours fed hydro projects are offline due to unplanned outages
FY 2018 Target
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B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
COLUMBIA GENERATING STATION RELIABILITY
S L I D E 2 6 B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N | Q B R J U L Y 2 0 1 8 | J O E L C O O K
Good
93.5
95.6
95.3
94
92
93
94
95
96
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Columbia Generating Station availability factor Percentage of time Columbia is available to serve demand
FY 2018 Target
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B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
ENGAGE WITH POWER
S L I D E 2 7 B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N | Q B R J U L Y 2 0 1 8 | J O E L C O O K
• Aug. 8 BP-20 Rate Case workshops.
– Gas and electricity forecast.
– Loads and resources.
– Rate mechanisms for Financial Reserves Policy.
• Rate Period High Water Mark comment period
open.
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TRANSMISSION SERVICES Richard Shaheen, SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT OF TRANSMISSION SERVICES
S L I D E 2 8 B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N | Q B R J U L Y 2 0 1 8 | R I C H A R D S H A H E E N
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B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
78 78 77
83 77
91 86
93
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sept.
Transmission total expense Total expense in millions of dollars
BP-18 Rate Case Actuals
TRANSMISSION SERVICES EXPENSE
S L I D E 2 9 B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N | Q B R J U L Y 2 0 1 8 | R I C H A R D S H A H E E N
Total expense (in millions of dollars)
BP-18
Rate Case
Q3 EOY
forecast
BP-18
year-to-date
Actuals
year-to-date
1,043 1,050 782 746
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B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
TRANSMISSION SERVICES REVENUES
S L I D E 3 0 B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N | Q B R J U L Y 2 0 1 8 | R I C H A R D S H A H E E N
Total revenues (in millions of dollars)
BP-18
Rate Case
Q3 EOY
forecast
BP-18
year-to-date
Actuals
year-to-date
1,052 1,078 794 828
85 88 89 91 92
99
88
102
94
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sept.
Transmission total revenues Total revenues in millions of dollars
BP-18 Rate Case Actuals
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B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
TRANSMISSION SERVICES CAPITAL
S L I D E 3 1 B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N | Q B R J U L Y 2 0 1 8 | R I C H A R D S H A H E E N
124
220
349
537
125
208
466
$103
$182
$279
$511
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
$ millions
Capital expenditure and work completed Tracks capital expenditure and percent of workplan completed
Planned assets Completed assets Actual $ millions FYTD Rate Case $ millions
Asset
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B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
TRANSMISSION RELIABILITY - SAIFI
S L I D E 3 2 B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N | Q B R J U L Y 2 0 1 8 | R I C H A R D S H A H E E N
0.74
0.56
0.47
0.27
0.22 0.22
0.66
0.68
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
System average interruption frequency index Tracks frequency of unplanned outages
Low voltage (< 200kV) High voltage (>= 200kV) Low voltage warning level High voltage warning level
Good
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B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
TRANSMISSION RELIABILITY - SAIDI
S L I D E 3 3 B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N | Q B R J U L Y 2 0 1 8 | R I C H A R D S H A H E E N
150
99 122
129
76 83
430
260
50
150
250
350
450
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
System average interruption duration index Tracks duration of unplanned outages
Low voltage (< 200kV) High voltage (>= 200kV) Low voltage warning level High voltage warning level
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B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
ENGAGE WITH TRANSMISSION
S L I D E 3 4
• Reliability coordinator services.
• TC-20 schedule and settlement discussions.
• 2019 Cluster Study.
• Montana Renewables Development Action Plan
B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N | Q B R J U L Y 2 0 1 8 | R I C H A R D S H A H E E N
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PUBLIC PROCESSES Scott Simms, DIRECTOR OF COMMUNICATIONS
S L I D E 3 5 B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N | Q B R J U L Y 2 0 1 8 | S C O T T S I M M S
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B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
PUBLIC PROCESSES
S L I D E 3 6
B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N | Q B R J U L Y 2 0 1 8 | S C O T T S I M M S
• Aug. 2 – Reliability coordinator services workshop.
• Aug. 8 – BP-20 Rate Case workshops.
• Aug. 21, Sept. 25 – TC-20 workshops.
• Sept. 6 – Columbia River Treaty Town Hall.
• September – TC-20 settlement discussions.
• Oct. 11 – BPA EIM stakeholder meeting.
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B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
COMMENT PERIODS
B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N | Q B R J U L Y 2 0 1 8 | S C O T T S I M M S S L I D E 3 7
• Aug. 2 – Integrated Program Review.
• Aug. 2 – Financial Reserves and Leverage policies.
• Aug. 2 – Capital financing.
• Aug. 8 – FY 2020-2021 Rate Period High Water
Mark
• Aug. 9 – Spar Canyon-Round Valley service road
project and right-of-way amendment
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QUESTION AND ANSWER
B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N | Q B R J U L Y 2 0 1 8 S L I D E 3 8
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B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
The next QBR is scheduled for Nov. 6, 2018.
Strategic plan is available at www.bpa.gov/StrategicPlan.
Didn’t get your question answered? Email [email protected]. Answers will be
posted to www.bpa.gov/goto/QBR.
THANK YOU
B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N | Q B R J U L Y 2 0 1 8 S L I D E 3 9
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This information was publicly available on
July 30, 2018, and contains information not sourced
directly from BPA financial statements.
FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE
B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N | Q B R J U L Y 2 0 1 8 S L I D E 4 0