Rio/29 Small Area Plan Phase 1
January 18, 2017
Rio/29 – Phase 1 Briefing
1
2
3
4
5
1 PROCESS
CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES
NEXT STEPS & DISCUSSION
2 KEY CONCEPTS & CONCLUSIONS
3 APPLYING THE CONCEPT AT RIO/29
PRESENTATION OVERVIEW
Outcomes of Today’s Work Session
Share findings from Phase I
Validation of fundamental concepts (e.g. nodal pattern)
What was learned from Phase I
What will be needed for Phase II
Receive initial reactions on the direction of the work
Address any questions
Provide a solid foundation for future action/meetings
1 PROCESS
STUDY AREA
Objectives
Assess study area conditions and market potential
Affirm/update Places29 vision
Outreach to public and stakeholders on desired future for area
Develop alternatives for future development
Timeline: 10 months (May, 2016 – February, 2017)
Engagement
2 public meetings, 2 property/land owner focus group meetings, 3 Citizen Advisory Committee meetings, 2 technical committee meetings (staff level), site tour with staff/county officials
PROCESS
PROCESS
Initiation/ Reconnaissance
Market Assessment
Study Area Analysis
Alternatives Generation
Final Documentation
2 KEY CONCEPTS & CONCLUSIONS
WHAT DID WE FIND OUT?
KEY TAKEAWAYS 8
Key Takeaways from this Phase
1. The future vision for Rio/29 is
Transformational – not a continuation of
current trends.
2. The key concept for this transformational
vision vision is the “15 minute walkable
community”
3. This concept organizes future
development/redevelopment into “Nodes”
4. This phase defined 3 potential Nodes
with clear priorities and phasing intent for
each
Questions to be answered in the Next Phase
1. The detailed design of the Node(s)
2. The transportation strategy for this Vision
3. The zoning, infrastructure and other
implementation strategies needed to realize
this Vision
1. Includes development of new code for
this pilot area
WHAT IS A 15-MINUTE WALKABLE COMMUNITY?
THE KEY CONCEPT
ARLINGTON, VA CHARLOTTESVILLE, VA
CHARACTERISTICS
1/4 to 1/2 mile radius
Mix of uses with high to medium density
Connected streets that support all modes of travel
BENEFITS
Supports health, active transportation
Supports property values
Internal trip capture (People can meet needs within the neighborhood, reducing pressure on arterial roads/highways)
Less pressure on extending infrastructure to support peripheral development
Meets growing Millennial/Baby Boomer demand for walkable communities
Opportunity for empty-nesters and retirees to have an option for less rural, suburban option
15-MINUTE WALKABLE COMMUNITY
THE KEY CONCEPT
Source: AARP
THE KEY CONCEPT
PLACES 29
THE KEY CONCEPT
Source: Places 29
THE KEY TO MAKING RIO/29 A
SPECIAL PLACE
RIO/29
Source:
Pictometry
Downtown Charlottesville
Source: Pictometry
The Village at Shirlington
Source: Pictometry
Belmar, Lakewood, CO
Source: Pictometry
Comp Plan (Development Areas)
Places29
THE CONCEPT IS SUPPORTED BY COUNTY POLICY
THE KEY CONCEPT 16
Vision
Compact
development….organized
around centers
Pedestrian-oriented and
mixed-use….
Connected by…multimodal
transportation
Parks and open
spaces…contribute to an
overall excellent quality of life
Millennial and Baby Boomer preferences
Growing population and economy with limited land for urban intensity development
Softening retail market nationally and locally may create an opening for redevelopment
THE CONCEPT IS SUPPORTED BY MARKET TRENDS
THE KEY CONCEPT
Millennials
Source: Vtrans.org; Investing in place for economic growth and competitiveness; A Research Summary; May 2014
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035
Population Trend to 2035
GROWING POPULATION IN ALBEMARLE + CHARLOTTESVILLE
THE KEY CONCEPT 18
1990 to 2015 average
annual growth of 1.4%
Trend brings county +
city population to
about 200,000 by
2035.
Increase of about
48,000 people.
How much growth will
go in the development
areas versus infill in
the city or sprawl into
outlying counties?
Source: Weldon Cooper Center
New Retail Square Footage in the US:
THE QUICKLY CHANGING RETAIL MARKET
THE KEY CONCEPT
ON LINE RETAILER
GROWTH
10.7%From 2015 to 2016
DEPARTMENT STORE
SALES
1.7%From 2015 to 2016177 mil.
in 2007
52 mil.in 2015
THE CONCEPT IS SUPPORTED BY POSITIVE PUBLIC FEEDBACK
THE KEY CONCEPT
BUT WITH A FEW KEY CAVEATS
THE KEY CONCEPT
Concern about traffic on 29
Concentrate density rather
than spread out and create a
Route 29 canyon
Minimize impacts on existing
residential neighborhoods
Minimize impacts on view
sheds (concern about height)
Strong support for the concept of 15-minute walkable communities that contain a mix of uses as “nodes” of development.
The key question of Phase 1 is where should these nodes be located?
BOTTOM LINE
THE KEY CONCEPT
3 APPLYING THE CONCEPT AT RIO/29
1. PLACE MAKING: Create a place where people and employers want to be
2. MIXED USE: Introduce more housing and employment uses to make a complete community
3. MULTIMODAL: Connectivity, transit, trails, and walk/bike friendly streets
4. OPEN SPACE & RECREATION: Parks, open spaces, buffers and river access
5. NEIGHBORHOOD PROTECTION: Balance the need for height and density to make redevelopment feasible with community concerns about local impacts and view sheds
6. INTERGENERATIONAL COMMUNITY: Mix of housing types and transportation options to meet the needs of people of all ages
7. VISITOR GATEWAY: Design and gateway features tell travelers they have arrived in a special place
GUIDING PRINCIPLES - PLAN
APPLYING THE CONCEPT
The Urban Land Institute identifies 10 core principles for “Reinventing the Suburban Strip”
NODES OF DEVELOPMENT
APPLYING THE CONCEPTwww.uli.org/wp-content/uploads/ULI-Documents/Tp_SuburbanStrips
Core Principle
HOW THE NODE OPTIONS WERE DEVELOPED
APPLYING THE CONCEPT 26
PLACES 29/PLANS
PUBLIC /
STAKEHOLDER INPUT
PLANNING PRINCIPLES
1 Node – Rio/29 2 Nodes – Rio/29 & River/29 3 Nodes – Rio, River, and Gander/29
PHASING & POTENTIAL POLICY DIRECTION
Rio/29 Node
Strongest support for a major node at Rio/29 that transforms the 4 quadrants over
the long-term into “downtown” Albemarle
Should be the primary policy direction to implement
River/29 Node
Secondary support for smaller node oriented to the Rivanna and supporting the
county’s growing hospitality and tourism sector
Should support, not detract from implementing the Rio/29 Node
Will probably develop later in time, depending on development pace at Rio/29
Gander/29 Node
Potential third node – but only if it works from a BRT analysis perspective and
market perspective depending on its timing
Should only be supported if the other two Nodes are successful
APPLYING THE CONCEPT
What about areas
outside the nodes?
• Develop as a mixture of
the following uses:
What about other centers?
• Secondary centers along
Berkmar could be served by
local circulator bus lines
DESIGN CHARACTER AT NODE CENTER NODE PERIPHERY
TARGET LAND USE MIX
60% office
20% high density residential
20% retail
50% high density residential
20% townhomes
20% office, 10% retail
DENSITYUp to 60 units per acre (housing)
Up to 1.5 gross floor area ratio
20 units multifamily/ 8 townhomes
per acre. 0.5 gross floor area ratio
HEIGHT Mid-rise Low-rise
GREEN SPACE
1 centrally-located major civic
space/plaza
Minor pocket parks, trail connections
Centrally-located parks or plazas in
walk distance, trail connections to
green space
STREET CONNECTIVITY 200 to 400-foot block lengths 300 to 400-foot block lengths
WHAT COULD THE NODES LOOK LIKE?
APPLYING THE CONCEPT
WHAT COULD THE NODES LOOK LIKE?
WHAT COULD THIS LOOK LIKE? (RIO/29 NODE)
APPLYING THE CONCEPTCredit: Steve Price, Urban Advantage (Places29 study)
WHAT COULD THIS LOOK LIKE? (RIO/29 NODE)
APPLYING THE CONCEPT
WHAT COULD THIS LOOK LIKE? (RIO/29 NODE)
APPLYING THE CONCEPT
WHAT COULD THIS LOOK LIKE? (RIO/29 NODE)
APPLYING THE CONCEPT
WHAT COULD THIS LOOK LIKE? (RIO/29 NODE)
APPLYING THE CONCEPT
WHAT COULD THIS LOOK LIKE? (RIO/29 NODE)
APPLYING THE CONCEPT
Oyster Point City Center, Newport News, VA
Carlisle, Alexandria, VA
PURPOSE
Market assessment explored if this vision is supportable by the market demand indicated by recent trends and forecast growth.
Key Caveats:
The vision is transformative rather than a continuation of trends.
The regional market is growing and county growth policies encourage substantial redevelopment in the study area.
These two caveats indicate potential for more development than an extension of trends, but the vision depends on redevelopment.
MARKET ASSESSMENT
APPLYING THE CONCEPT
Capture Rate Assumptions - Residential
Multifamily is the most likely housing type in the study area; will likely take a different form than traditionally seen in area
Regional forecast calls for about 2,800 units over next 20 years
29 North area has captured about 20% over the last decade
Assumed a moderate future capture of between 20 and 30%; may mean the county being more proactive
Capture Rate Assumptions – Office
20-year forecast of 5,777 new office-using jobs
Would require 1.44 million square feet of new space (assumes 250 square feet per employee)
Will likely take a different form - particularly for target industries - with research/development, flex, and industrial space
29 North has captured about 30% over the last decade
Assumed a moderate future capture of between 30 and 40%; may mean the county being more proactive
Capture Rate Assumptions – Retail
Many national factors are working against retail development
Projection of little or zero net change
Capture Rate Assumptions – Hotel
Regional hotel market will grow at the rate of the economy
Assumed about 2,500 new hotel rooms over the next 20 years
Assumed a moderate future capture of between 20 and 30%
MARKET-SUPPORTED DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES
APPLYING THE CONCEPT
Sources: Moody’s Analytics (office and multifamily housing), U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (hotel)
Product Type 20-Year Development Potential for the Rio/29 Study Area
Residential 550 to 850 multifamily units
Office 430,000 to 580,000 square feet
Retail
Re-tenanting and renovation of viable centers; selective
addition of retailers and restaurants that offer compelling
products and experiences, and look for a sense of place
Hotel 500 to 750 rooms, or 4 to 6 hotels
MARKET-SUPPORTED DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES
APPLYING THE CONCEPT
Can likely see at least this much development or more
if the direction is transformational
Market demand for housing, office, and hotel is healthy based on recent trends.
Impossible to predict the market demand for transformational change (15-minute walkable), but national trends point in that direction.
Phasing important so the other 2 nodes do not absorb demand before Rio/29 node.
Industrial difficult to predict given lack of industry in this area; the outlook for high tech industrial uses in the study area should come into focus with the Economic Development Strategic Plan.
WHAT DOES THIS TELL US?
APPLYING THE CONCEPT
4 CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES
44
Increasing amount and intensity of development will generate additional trips in the area.
Enhanced transit (BRT) is one key to make this concept work.
“Internal capture” through mixed use / urban design is another key transportation principle
Walkability supports both
TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS
CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES 45
FUTURE TRANSIT AS AN ORGANIZING FEATURE
CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIESSource: Places29
APPLYING THE CONCEPT
A NOTE ON TRANSIT ORIENTED DEVELOPMENT
CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES 47
TOD
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
LIVABLE COMMUNITIES TRAVEL CHOICES
CHARACTERISTICS OF SUCCESSFUL TOD CHARACTERISTICS OF SUCCESSFUL COMMUNITY=
48
BRT EXAMPLE
49
BRT EXAMPLE
Public outreach revealed concern about Route 29 dividing the study area, and creating an obstacle to building a walkable environment.
Addressing this would require both:
Creation of self-contained walkable nodes in the quadrants
Safe crossing points along 29
PEDESTRIANS & ROUTE 29
CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIESImage Source: Places29
Challenges raised by Developers/Property Owners that are within the county’s purview:
Height limits
Zoning (match future zoning with future vision to facilitate development)
Flexibility in use
Transportation (public transit viewed as a solution, but need supportive density)
Incentives to take on the risk of redevelopment
Such as TIF, higher allowed density, and form-based zoning
Assistance with infrastructure
Vision will require structured parking, internal streets, trails, stormwater management, etc.
MAKING IT EASIER TO BUILD THE VISION
CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES
5 NEXT STEPS & DISCUSSION
52
Validation of future land use direction
Transform existing development pattern, applying node concept to create walkable centers
Identified 3 possible nodes; focus initially at Rio/29
Identification of issues to be addressed in Phase II
Transportation challenges posed by increasing development & economic activity in the area
Further analyzing market factors affecting development potential, such as demographic change influences (for example, “aging up” millennials and baby boomers, and increasing income and purchasing power)
Incorporating Economic Development Strategic Plan influences into the area plan
Limitations
Few datasets reflect the study area boundary for a market assessment; need to cobble together many data sources or invest time to create new datasets
Inherent challenge of applying market assessment techniques to a transformational, long-term vision
Public feedback
Concern about ability to cross Route 29 on foot/bike
Concern about height of development, effect on adjacent low density residential areas, avoiding a 29 “canyon”
Conclusions
NEXT STEPS & DISCUSSION
Share findings from Phase I
Validation of fundamental concepts (e.g. nodal pattern)
What was learned from Phase I
What will be needed for Phase II
Receive initial reactions on the direction of the work
Address any questions
Next Steps - Provide a solid foundation for future action/meetings
Must provide details and clarity about what to expect in Phase II before endorsement of Phase I is complete. Therefore:
Planning Commission – mid-February (14 or 21?)
Board of Supervisors – March 1
Proposed endorsement of Phase I and approach to Phase II - April
OUTCOMES OF TODAY’S WORK SESSION
NEXT STEPS & DISCUSSION
Next Steps
Brief report
Scoping of Phase 2 – analysis needed to address many of the concerns and challenges raised
Discussion, Comments, & Questions
NEXT STEPS & DISCUSSION
NEXT STEPS & DISCUSSION 55
Additional Supporting Slides – To use if needed
General Land Use Category Acres
Retail 251.5
Light Industrial 69.5
Residential multifamily 67.5
Office 59.8
Civic 31.3
MARKET-SUPPORTED DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES
APPLYING THE CONCEPT
Study Area Today
Population
2,283 residents, 917 dwelling units (95% multifamily)
Very few vacant parcels
Source: Albemarle County
MARKET-SUPPORTED DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES
APPLYING THE CONCEPT
-39
-34
-17
3
4
10
14
16
53
151
287
326
437
597
709
-200 0 200 400 600 800
Construction
Information
Manufacturing
Real Estate & Rental & Leasing
Wholesale Trade
Arts, Entertainment, & Rec.
Educational Services
Company Management
Finance & Insurance
Other Services
Prof., Scientific, & Tech. Serv.
Retail Trade
Admin. & Support & Waste…
Health Care & Social Assistance
Accommodation & Food Services
Net Employment Change 2015-2035
Study Area Forecast (left)
2,500 jobs over 20 years.
Retail dominates, but slow
growth anticipated.
Vacancy rate is rising.
Regional growth forecast
of about 5,800 new office-
using jobs over 20 years
Source: VEC, QCEW reports 2005, 2015; County
of Albemarle Economic Development Office
historic growth rate projections. Moody’s Analytics
for regional (Albemarle + Charlottesville) forecast.
MARKET-SUPPORTED DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES
APPLYING THE CONCEPT
7,4988,160
8,8819,665
16,19117,202
18,27619,417
-
8,000
16,000
24,000
2010 2015 2020 2025
Population in Area
D.U. Population
Neighborhoods 1 & 2 –
which encompass the
study area – have grown
by about 3,500 people
over 20 years
Extending the trend adds
about 220 people & 150
housing units per year
Regional trends would
add about 48,000 people
in Albemarle + C’Ville
over the next 20 years
Source: Albemarle County
Analysis Components Comprehensive Plan Existing Zoning
Vacant Residential Acreage 67.07 acres 97.03 acres
Low-High Density Range 6 to 34 units per acre 6 to 20 units per acre
# of Possible Units on Vacant Buildable Land 189 to 1,681 445 to 814
Unbuilt Pipeline Units 109 109
Future Housing Capacity (potential
additional dwellings)298 to 1,790 1,254 to 1,623
RESIDENTIAL LAND CAPACITY ANALYSIS FOR STUDY AREA
APPLYING THE CONCEPT60
This table below shows the potential for new housing in the study area under the county’s
policies in the comprehensive plan and existing zoning.
May accommodate housing demand for 10 to 20 years, but will likely require redevelopment.