rio/29 phase 1 briefing - albemarle county, virginia...objectives assess study area conditions and...

Rio/29 Small Area Plan Phase 1

January 18, 2017

Rio/29 – Phase 1 Briefing

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1 PROCESS

CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES

NEXT STEPS & DISCUSSION

2 KEY CONCEPTS & CONCLUSIONS

3 APPLYING THE CONCEPT AT RIO/29

PRESENTATION OVERVIEW

Outcomes of Today’s Work Session

Share findings from Phase I

Validation of fundamental concepts (e.g. nodal pattern)

What was learned from Phase I

What will be needed for Phase II

Receive initial reactions on the direction of the work

Address any questions

Provide a solid foundation for future action/meetings

1 PROCESS

STUDY AREA

Objectives

Assess study area conditions and market potential

Affirm/update Places29 vision

Outreach to public and stakeholders on desired future for area

Develop alternatives for future development

Timeline: 10 months (May, 2016 – February, 2017)

Engagement

2 public meetings, 2 property/land owner focus group meetings, 3 Citizen Advisory Committee meetings, 2 technical committee meetings (staff level), site tour with staff/county officials

PROCESS

PROCESS

Initiation/ Reconnaissance

Market Assessment

Study Area Analysis

Alternatives Generation

Final Documentation

2 KEY CONCEPTS & CONCLUSIONS

WHAT DID WE FIND OUT?

KEY TAKEAWAYS 8

Key Takeaways from this Phase

1. The future vision for Rio/29 is

Transformational – not a continuation of

current trends.

2. The key concept for this transformational

vision vision is the “15 minute walkable

community”

3. This concept organizes future

development/redevelopment into “Nodes”

4. This phase defined 3 potential Nodes

with clear priorities and phasing intent for

each

Questions to be answered in the Next Phase

1. The detailed design of the Node(s)

2. The transportation strategy for this Vision

3. The zoning, infrastructure and other

implementation strategies needed to realize

this Vision

1. Includes development of new code for

this pilot area

WHAT IS A 15-MINUTE WALKABLE COMMUNITY?

THE KEY CONCEPT

ARLINGTON, VA CHARLOTTESVILLE, VA

CHARACTERISTICS

1/4 to 1/2 mile radius

Mix of uses with high to medium density

Connected streets that support all modes of travel

BENEFITS

Supports health, active transportation

Supports property values

Internal trip capture (People can meet needs within the neighborhood, reducing pressure on arterial roads/highways)

Less pressure on extending infrastructure to support peripheral development

Meets growing Millennial/Baby Boomer demand for walkable communities

Opportunity for empty-nesters and retirees to have an option for less rural, suburban option

15-MINUTE WALKABLE COMMUNITY

THE KEY CONCEPT

Source: AARP

THE KEY CONCEPT

PLACES 29

THE KEY CONCEPT

Source: Places 29

THE KEY TO MAKING RIO/29 A

SPECIAL PLACE

RIO/29

Source:

Pictometry

Downtown Charlottesville

Source: Pictometry

The Village at Shirlington

Source: Pictometry

Belmar, Lakewood, CO

Source: Pictometry

Comp Plan (Development Areas)

Places29

THE CONCEPT IS SUPPORTED BY COUNTY POLICY

THE KEY CONCEPT 16

Vision

Compact

development….organized

around centers

Pedestrian-oriented and

mixed-use….

Connected by…multimodal

transportation

Parks and open

spaces…contribute to an

overall excellent quality of life

Millennial and Baby Boomer preferences

Growing population and economy with limited land for urban intensity development

Softening retail market nationally and locally may create an opening for redevelopment

THE CONCEPT IS SUPPORTED BY MARKET TRENDS

THE KEY CONCEPT

Millennials

Source: Vtrans.org; Investing in place for economic growth and competitiveness; A Research Summary; May 2014

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035

Population Trend to 2035

GROWING POPULATION IN ALBEMARLE + CHARLOTTESVILLE

THE KEY CONCEPT 18

1990 to 2015 average

annual growth of 1.4%

Trend brings county +

city population to

about 200,000 by

2035.

Increase of about

48,000 people.

How much growth will

go in the development

areas versus infill in

the city or sprawl into

outlying counties?

Source: Weldon Cooper Center

New Retail Square Footage in the US:

THE QUICKLY CHANGING RETAIL MARKET

THE KEY CONCEPT

ON LINE RETAILER

GROWTH

10.7%From 2015 to 2016

DEPARTMENT STORE

SALES

1.7%From 2015 to 2016177 mil.

in 2007

52 mil.in 2015

THE CONCEPT IS SUPPORTED BY POSITIVE PUBLIC FEEDBACK

THE KEY CONCEPT

BUT WITH A FEW KEY CAVEATS

THE KEY CONCEPT

Concern about traffic on 29

Concentrate density rather

than spread out and create a

Route 29 canyon

Minimize impacts on existing

residential neighborhoods

Minimize impacts on view

sheds (concern about height)

Strong support for the concept of 15-minute walkable communities that contain a mix of uses as “nodes” of development.

The key question of Phase 1 is where should these nodes be located?

BOTTOM LINE

THE KEY CONCEPT

3 APPLYING THE CONCEPT AT RIO/29

1. PLACE MAKING: Create a place where people and employers want to be

2. MIXED USE: Introduce more housing and employment uses to make a complete community

3. MULTIMODAL: Connectivity, transit, trails, and walk/bike friendly streets

4. OPEN SPACE & RECREATION: Parks, open spaces, buffers and river access

5. NEIGHBORHOOD PROTECTION: Balance the need for height and density to make redevelopment feasible with community concerns about local impacts and view sheds

6. INTERGENERATIONAL COMMUNITY: Mix of housing types and transportation options to meet the needs of people of all ages

7. VISITOR GATEWAY: Design and gateway features tell travelers they have arrived in a special place

GUIDING PRINCIPLES - PLAN

APPLYING THE CONCEPT

The Urban Land Institute identifies 10 core principles for “Reinventing the Suburban Strip”

NODES OF DEVELOPMENT

APPLYING THE CONCEPTwww.uli.org/wp-content/uploads/ULI-Documents/Tp_SuburbanStrips

Core Principle

http://www.uli.org/wp-content/uploads/ULI-Documents/Tp_SuburbanStrips

HOW THE NODE OPTIONS WERE DEVELOPED

APPLYING THE CONCEPT 26

PLACES 29/PLANS

PUBLIC /

STAKEHOLDER INPUT

PLANNING PRINCIPLES

1 Node – Rio/29 2 Nodes – Rio/29 & River/29 3 Nodes – Rio, River, and Gander/29

PHASING & POTENTIAL POLICY DIRECTION

Rio/29 Node

Strongest support for a major node at Rio/29 that transforms the 4 quadrants over

the long-term into “downtown” Albemarle

Should be the primary policy direction to implement

River/29 Node

Secondary support for smaller node oriented to the Rivanna and supporting the

county’s growing hospitality and tourism sector

Should support, not detract from implementing the Rio/29 Node

Will probably develop later in time, depending on development pace at Rio/29

Gander/29 Node

Potential third node – but only if it works from a BRT analysis perspective and

market perspective depending on its timing

Should only be supported if the other two Nodes are successful


What about areas

outside the nodes?

• Develop as a mixture of

the following uses:

What about other centers?

• Secondary centers along

Berkmar could be served by

local circulator bus lines

DESIGN CHARACTER AT NODE CENTER NODE PERIPHERY

TARGET LAND USE MIX

60% office

20% high density residential

20% retail

50% high density residential

20% townhomes

20% office, 10% retail

DENSITYUp to 60 units per acre (housing)

Up to 1.5 gross floor area ratio

20 units multifamily/ 8 townhomes

per acre. 0.5 gross floor area ratio

HEIGHT Mid-rise Low-rise

GREEN SPACE

1 centrally-located major civic

space/plaza

Minor pocket parks, trail connections

Centrally-located parks or plazas in

walk distance, trail connections to

green space

STREET CONNECTIVITY 200 to 400-foot block lengths 300 to 400-foot block lengths

WHAT COULD THE NODES LOOK LIKE?


WHAT COULD THE NODES LOOK LIKE?

WHAT COULD THIS LOOK LIKE? (RIO/29 NODE)

APPLYING THE CONCEPTCredit: Steve Price, Urban Advantage (Places29 study)

WHAT COULD THIS LOOK LIKE? (RIO/29 NODE)


Oyster Point City Center, Newport News, VA

Carlisle, Alexandria, VA

PURPOSE

Market assessment explored if this vision is supportable by the market demand indicated by recent trends and forecast growth.

Key Caveats:

The vision is transformative rather than a continuation of trends.

The regional market is growing and county growth policies encourage substantial redevelopment in the study area.

These two caveats indicate potential for more development than an extension of trends, but the vision depends on redevelopment.

MARKET ASSESSMENT


Capture Rate Assumptions - Residential

Multifamily is the most likely housing type in the study area; will likely take a different form than traditionally seen in area

Regional forecast calls for about 2,800 units over next 20 years

29 North area has captured about 20% over the last decade

Assumed a moderate future capture of between 20 and 30%; may mean the county being more proactive

Capture Rate Assumptions – Office

20-year forecast of 5,777 new office-using jobs

Would require 1.44 million square feet of new space (assumes 250 square feet per employee)

Will likely take a different form - particularly for target industries - with research/development, flex, and industrial space

29 North has captured about 30% over the last decade

Assumed a moderate future capture of between 30 and 40%; may mean the county being more proactive

Capture Rate Assumptions – Retail

Many national factors are working against retail development

Projection of little or zero net change

Capture Rate Assumptions – Hotel

Regional hotel market will grow at the rate of the economy

Assumed about 2,500 new hotel rooms over the next 20 years

Assumed a moderate future capture of between 20 and 30%

MARKET-SUPPORTED DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES


Sources: Moody’s Analytics (office and multifamily housing), U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (hotel)

Product Type 20-Year Development Potential for the Rio/29 Study Area

Residential 550 to 850 multifamily units

Office 430,000 to 580,000 square feet

Retail

Re-tenanting and renovation of viable centers; selective

addition of retailers and restaurants that offer compelling

products and experiences, and look for a sense of place

Hotel 500 to 750 rooms, or 4 to 6 hotels



Can likely see at least this much development or more

if the direction is transformational

Market demand for housing, office, and hotel is healthy based on recent trends.

Impossible to predict the market demand for transformational change (15-minute walkable), but national trends point in that direction.

Phasing important so the other 2 nodes do not absorb demand before Rio/29 node.

Industrial difficult to predict given lack of industry in this area; the outlook for high tech industrial uses in the study area should come into focus with the Economic Development Strategic Plan.

WHAT DOES THIS TELL US?


4 CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES

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Increasing amount and intensity of development will generate additional trips in the area.

Enhanced transit (BRT) is one key to make this concept work.

“Internal capture” through mixed use / urban design is another key transportation principle

Walkability supports both

TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS

CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES 45

FUTURE TRANSIT AS AN ORGANIZING FEATURE

CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIESSource: Places29


A NOTE ON TRANSIT ORIENTED DEVELOPMENT

CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES 47

TOD

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

LIVABLE COMMUNITIES TRAVEL CHOICES

CHARACTERISTICS OF SUCCESSFUL TOD CHARACTERISTICS OF SUCCESSFUL COMMUNITY=

48

BRT EXAMPLE

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BRT EXAMPLE

Public outreach revealed concern about Route 29 dividing the study area, and creating an obstacle to building a walkable environment.

Addressing this would require both:

Creation of self-contained walkable nodes in the quadrants

Safe crossing points along 29

PEDESTRIANS & ROUTE 29

CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIESImage Source: Places29

Challenges raised by Developers/Property Owners that are within the county’s purview:

Height limits

Zoning (match future zoning with future vision to facilitate development)

Flexibility in use

Transportation (public transit viewed as a solution, but need supportive density)

Incentives to take on the risk of redevelopment

Such as TIF, higher allowed density, and form-based zoning

Assistance with infrastructure

Vision will require structured parking, internal streets, trails, stormwater management, etc.

MAKING IT EASIER TO BUILD THE VISION

CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES

5 NEXT STEPS & DISCUSSION

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Validation of future land use direction

Transform existing development pattern, applying node concept to create walkable centers

Identified 3 possible nodes; focus initially at Rio/29

Identification of issues to be addressed in Phase II

Transportation challenges posed by increasing development & economic activity in the area

Further analyzing market factors affecting development potential, such as demographic change influences (for example, “aging up” millennials and baby boomers, and increasing income and purchasing power)

Incorporating Economic Development Strategic Plan influences into the area plan

Limitations

Few datasets reflect the study area boundary for a market assessment; need to cobble together many data sources or invest time to create new datasets

Inherent challenge of applying market assessment techniques to a transformational, long-term vision

Public feedback

Concern about ability to cross Route 29 on foot/bike

Concern about height of development, effect on adjacent low density residential areas, avoiding a 29 “canyon”

Conclusions


Share findings from Phase I

Validation of fundamental concepts (e.g. nodal pattern)

What was learned from Phase I

What will be needed for Phase II

Receive initial reactions on the direction of the work

Address any questions

Next Steps - Provide a solid foundation for future action/meetings

Must provide details and clarity about what to expect in Phase II before endorsement of Phase I is complete. Therefore:

Planning Commission – mid-February (14 or 21?)

Board of Supervisors – March 1

Proposed endorsement of Phase I and approach to Phase II - April

OUTCOMES OF TODAY’S WORK SESSION


Next Steps

Brief report

Scoping of Phase 2 – analysis needed to address many of the concerns and challenges raised

Discussion, Comments, & Questions


NEXT STEPS & DISCUSSION 55

Additional Supporting Slides – To use if needed

General Land Use Category Acres

Retail 251.5

Light Industrial 69.5

Residential multifamily 67.5

Office 59.8

Civic 31.3



Study Area Today

Population

2,283 residents, 917 dwelling units (95% multifamily)

Very few vacant parcels

Source: Albemarle County



-39

-34

-17

3

4

10

14

16

53

151

287

326

437

597

709

-200 0 200 400 600 800

Construction

Information

Manufacturing

Real Estate & Rental & Leasing

Wholesale Trade

Arts, Entertainment, & Rec.

Educational Services

Company Management

Finance & Insurance

Other Services

Prof., Scientific, & Tech. Serv.

Retail Trade

Admin. & Support & Waste…

Health Care & Social Assistance

Accommodation & Food Services

Net Employment Change 2015-2035

Study Area Forecast (left)

2,500 jobs over 20 years.

Retail dominates, but slow

growth anticipated.

Vacancy rate is rising.

Regional growth forecast

of about 5,800 new office-

using jobs over 20 years

Source: VEC, QCEW reports 2005, 2015; County

of Albemarle Economic Development Office

historic growth rate projections. Moody’s Analytics

for regional (Albemarle + Charlottesville) forecast.



7,4988,160

8,8819,665

16,19117,202

18,27619,417

-

8,000

16,000

24,000

2010 2015 2020 2025

Population in Area

D.U. Population

Neighborhoods 1 & 2 –

which encompass the

study area – have grown

by about 3,500 people

over 20 years

Extending the trend adds

about 220 people & 150

housing units per year

Regional trends would

add about 48,000 people

in Albemarle + C’Ville

over the next 20 years

Source: Albemarle County

Analysis Components Comprehensive Plan Existing Zoning

Vacant Residential Acreage 67.07 acres 97.03 acres

Low-High Density Range 6 to 34 units per acre 6 to 20 units per acre

# of Possible Units on Vacant Buildable Land 189 to 1,681 445 to 814

Unbuilt Pipeline Units 109 109

Future Housing Capacity (potential

additional dwellings)298 to 1,790 1,254 to 1,623

RESIDENTIAL LAND CAPACITY ANALYSIS FOR STUDY AREA

APPLYING THE CONCEPT60

This table below shows the potential for new housing in the study area under the county’s

policies in the comprehensive plan and existing zoning.

May accommodate housing demand for 10 to 20 years, but will likely require redevelopment.