ROBERT CHARLES LESSER & CO., LLC
Demographic Changes Driving New Residential Development
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ROBERT CHARLES LESSER & CO., LLC
Demographic Changes Driving New Residential Development
• Changing Household Types
– Growth in non-traditional-family households
– Changing face of renters and owners
• Impact of Immigration
– When, where and how immigrants live
• Impact of Race/Ethnicity
• Implications for Different Housing
Types
• Relationship to Employment Patterns
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Changing Household Types
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Changing Household Types
• The growth is in non-traditional-family households– Singles
– Unmarried couples or childless couples
– Roommates
– Single parents
• Non-traditional-family households
– Willing to pioneer new areas
– Less concerned about school districts
– Looking to balance price and lifestyle
• Married renters and single buyersSource: US Census, Brookings Institution
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Changing Household Types
• DC a national leader in non-married-couple households– DC - 77%, vs. 64% for 100 Largest US Cities
– DC MSA - 50%, vs. 48% National Average
– DC – 8% of households married with kid(s) – vs. 23.5% in US
– In 1990s, married households flocked to suburbs
• Lifestyle drives housing location decisions
– Look for where they can live, work & play – all in
one place
– Active communities – “3rd Places” for informal
gathering
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Changing Household Types• What does that mean?
– Product configuration changes
• Less need for 3rd or 4th bedrooms
• Creative living spaces
• More architecture, less “sameness”
– Location change
• Unconcerned with conventions and traditions
• Heretofore unacceptable locations
• Single females prefer established locations
• Couples & single men will take more risk for the $
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Household Types | Owners
2003-2008 DC PMSA Ownership Growth (HH)
39,353
30,305
2,792
10,175
28,088
3,596
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000
Married Couple
Married Couplew/Children
Male Head
Female Head
Single
Roommate
2003-2008
• Over 110,000 new owner HH will be added (~22,000/year)
• Largest % growth in Singles and Childless Couples
• Married w/ children growing slower than other groups
Source: US Census, Claritas
The Brookings Institution
1.4%
2.1%
1.6%
1.5%
1.1%
2.5%
Growth%
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Household Types | Renters
DC PMSA Renters HH in Buildings w/5+ Units
2,963
-197
1,015
2,389
14,143
834
-2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000
Married Couple
Married Couplew/Children
Male Head
Female Head
Single
Roommate
2003-2008
~21,000 new renters –(~4,200/yr)
Singles drive the rental market
However…
Married Couples without children ~13% of renter growth
Female HH Heads ~11% of renter growth
Source: US Census, Claritas
0.4%
1.5%
0.7%
1.0%
-0.1%
1.2%
Growth%
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Owners
• What does that mean – for-sale?
– GenXers flooding the market – singles,
couples without children
– Designs for non-kid or young-kid households
– Married w/children growing slower than
other groups
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Renters
• What does that mean - rentals?
– Need to design for both singles and couples
– “Renters by choice” aren’t a myth (20% 50K+ incomes)
– they seek quality, mobility, and convenience – but
affordability key for many
– GenX not having children yet – some rent for a while
– Echo Boomers – tomorrow’s renter (after 2008)
• Many doubling up & living with parents
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Summary: Demographic Changes Driving New Residential Development
• Maturing Boomers:– Luxury homes/condos and some rentals
– More affluent demand top-flight amenities and services
• GenX not having children yet, but soon– Moving into ownership
• Echo Boom generation:– Tomorrow’s renter--after 2008
– Less affluent than GenX, doubling up, living with parents
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Impact of Immigration
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1 Los Angeles 3,449,444 36.22 New York 3,139,647 33.73 Chicago 1,425,978 17.24 Miami 1,147,765 50.95 Houston 854,669 20.56 Orange County 849,899 29.9
7 Washington DC 832,016 16.98 Riverside-San Bernardino 612,359 18.89 San Diego 606,254 21.510 Dallas 591,169 16.8
Percent
Foreign Born
Foreign Born
Population
Source: Brookings Institution
Top Ten Immigrant Populations by Metropolitan Area, 2000
Impact of Immigration
• DC region is 7th in foreign born residents, 5th in total population
• 8th in % foreign born
• Foreign born population grew almost 7 fold in last 30 years
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Foreign-Born Population Growth as a % of Total Population Growth
49%
-42%
87% 85%79%
56%
74%
16%
7%
-50%
Wash
ingto
n DC PM
SA
Distric
t of C
olumbia
Arlingto
n Coun
ty
Alexand
ria C
ity
Mont
gomery
County
Princ
e Geor
ge's Coun
ty
Fairfa
x Coun
ty
Outer S
ubur
bs
Far S
uburb
s
Perc
ent C
hange
New immigrants made up nearly half of the overall population growth in the region in the 1990s
Source: Brookings
Impact of Immigration
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Impact of Immigration
• Immigrants choosing to settle in the inner suburbs rather than the District– 4% of 1990s foreign-born growth in DC
• Absolute population growth in the 1990s equal in the inner and outer portions of region
– 85% of inner-jurisdiction population growth foreign-born
– 12% of outer-jurisdiction population growth foreign-born
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Outer Suburbs9%
Prince George's
13%
Montgomery 28%
Far Suburbs1%
DC9%
Arlington 6%
Alexandria 4%
Fairfax 30%
Outer Suburbs
2%
Far Suburbs0%
Fairfax 13%
M ontgomery 28%
Alexandria 4%
Arlington 9%
DC26%
Prince George's
18%
1970Total Foreign Born
127,579
Source: The Brookings Institution
2000Total Foreign Born
832,016
Impact of ImmigrationImpact of Immigration
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Fauquier
Frederick
Charles
Fairfax
Loudoun
Culpeper
Montgomery
Berkeley
Stafford
Calvert
Spotsylvania
Prince George's
Warren
Clarke
Prince William
Jefferson
DC
King George
Arlington
Alexandria
Manassas
Fairfax
Fredericksburg
I 66I 95
I 70
I 270
I 495
Route 50
I 95
Source: Brookings
Impact of ImmigrationPercent Foreign Born (By Census Tract)2000
Less than 5%
5% - 15%
16% - 25%
26% - 35%
Greater than 35%
Foreign born residents tend to concentrate near but not in the District
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Fairfax
Prince George's
Montgomery
Prince William
Loudoun
District of Columbia
Charles
Arlington
Alexandria
Fairfax
Manassas
Falls Church
Manassas Park
Manassas Park
Foreign-Born Median Household Income
Less than 50% of Median Income
50% - 100% of Median Income
101% - 150% of Median Income
Greater than 150% of Median Income
Impact of Immigration
Source: Brookings
• Immigrants tend to live close to DC
• Poorer immigrants flock to DC and Prince George's County
• Affluent immigrants move to Montgomery and Fairfax Counties
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Race & Ethnicity
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Race & Ethnicity
DC PMSA 1990-2000
-6,953
4,57812,243
810
46,639
264,467
126,372
191,561
-55,125
7,782
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
Whit
e
Blac
k/Afric
an A
merican
Asian/
Pacific
Island
er
Hisp
anic/Latino
Other
Washington DC Suburbs
• Minorities growing in the suburbs
• Mirrors national trend
• DC losing African- American residents
• Suburban builders should understand needs, desires of minorities
Source: US Census, Brookings Institution
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Race & Ethnicity
Source: US Census, Brookings Institution
• Hispanics live in north-central DC
• Concentration in NE Prince George’s, SE Montgomery, Arlington & Fairfax counties
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Race & Ethnicity
• Minorities are 32% of 1st time homebuyers (national)
• Minorities have lower incomes & wealth
• Lenders are correcting for prior patterns of discrimination
• Minorities are less mobile– 65% of minority homeowners nationwide 65
yrs of age are still in 1st home– Compared with 32% for non-Hispanic white
homeowners Source: US Census, Brookings Institution, Joint Center for Housing Studies
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Relationship to Employment Patterns
ROBERT CHARLES LESSER & CO., LLC
Demographic Changes Driving New Residential Development
www.RCLCo.com