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Forum
RON GENEREUX, P.ENG.President – Construction Owners Association of AlbertaVice President, Construction - Suncor Energy Inc.
Major Projects in the Canadian Oil Sands – Past Experiences and Future Expectations
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About COAA
The Opportunity and the Oil Sands (they’re both still there)
Make the most of it
Worth discussing
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Founded in the 1970’s
Owner leadership in a fragmented industry
~ 20 principal members & 140 associate members
Annual Best Practices Conference since 1993
About COAA
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About COAA – Our impact
Member Co.
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Four areas Safety Workforce Development Productivity Contract Documents
23 best practices issued, 8 in development Our website – www.coaa.ab.ca
About COAA - Best Practices
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0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Thou
san
ds
Bar
rels
Per
Day
Actual Forecast
Reference: CAPP June 2008 Canadian Crude Oil Production & Supply Forecast (2008-2020)
PentanesConventional LightConventional Heavy
Eastern Canada
Mining
In-Situ
The Opportunity – The oil is still there
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The Opportunity – Firebag … one of many projects
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0
500
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Canada Mexico SaudiArabia
Vene-zuela
Nigeria Algeria Angola Iraq Russia VirginIslands
thou
sand
bbl
s/d Petroleum Products
Crude Oil
U.S. Imports by Country of Origin
The Opportunity – U.S. market demand
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The Opportunity – Impact of the recession
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20000
25000
2010
-Q1
2010
-Q2
2010
-Q3
2010
-Q4
2011
-Q1
2011
-Q2
2011
-Q3
2011
-Q4
2012
-Q1
2012
-Q2
2012
-Q3
2012
-Q4
2013
-Q1
2013
-Q2
2013
-Q3
2013
-Q4
2014
-Q1
2014
-Q2
2014
-Q3
2014
-Q4
2015
-Q1
2015
-Q2
2015
-Q3
2015
-Q4
cons
truc
tion
wor
kfor
ce
Major Projects - Alberta
Shutdowns
All Projects
The Opportunity – Impact of the recession (cont.)
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The Opportunity – Looking ahead
0
2000
4000
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10000
12000
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
f
2012
f
2014
f
2016
f
2018
f
Highways & Bridges Oil Sands Other Engineering
Canadian Engineered Construction (in 2002 $)
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Environmental stewardship
Shift from capital construction to maintenance
The Opportunity – The long-term view
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13
12008 construction capital expenditure estimate for all Alberta oil sands projects, including related pipeline, upgrader and co-generation projects – original estimates (January, 2008) and adjusted (January 26, 2009) per public announcements.
Source: Construction Capital: CAPP and Nichols Applied Management, Operating Expenditure – Nichols Study
Adjusted Estimated Construction Capital Expenditures (Jan. 26, 09)
Adjusted Estimated Operating Expenditures (Jan. 26, 09)
Original Estimated Operating Expenditures (Jan. 08)Original Estimated Construction Capital Expenditures (Jan. 08)
Capital: $12.8 Billion
Operating: $17.9 Billion
Actual Construction Capital Expenditures
Actual Operating Expenditures
The Opportunity – The long-term viewCombined Oil Sands Expenditures
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Make the most of it – COAA can help
Contracts
Workface Planning Bench
marking
Supervisory Skills
Rework
Safety
WorkforceDevelopment
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WorkFace Planning The right people In the right place At the right time With the right tools & materials
What’s it worth?
Make the most of it – COAA can help
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Make the most of it – WorkFace planning
Tool Time37%
WaitTime15%
10% more tool time = 25% improvement in productivityLess wait time improves safety, morale, predictability
Crew Movement
15%
Eqpt. Mtl. Movement 8%
Crew Planning
15%
Early quits & breaks
14%Tool Time
47%
WaitTime5%
Crew Movement
15%
Eqpt. Mtl. Movement 8%
Crew Planning
15%
Early quits & breaks
14%
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Make the most of it – COAA can help
WorkFace Planning in real life Two identical hydrotreater projects
(click here to read the study)
COAA Award nominations
Results = better productivity, better schedule predictability, plus others
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Make the most of it – COAA can help
Benchmarking 37 projects Average installed cost = $368 million 8 projects > $1 billion
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Make the most of it – COAA can help
Benchmarking 37 projects Average installed cost = $368 million 8 projects > $1 billion
Results
Best practices clearly connected to outcomes (e.g. constructability assessment, project risk assessment, planning for start up, detailed engineering complete)
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WorkFace Planning – 2010 Conference
www.wfpconference.comwww.coaa.ab.ca
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www.coaa.ab.cawww.wfpconference.com
Thank you!
Discussions and Questions