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School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, UK
Introduction and the Importance of Palaeoclimatology
Prof. Alan M. Haywood
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• Inspiration and approaches to palaeo
• Climate evolution - the last 80 million years
• On the shoulders of Giants...
• Problems in a post-pioneer era
• Data and model uncertainties
Talk Outline
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Why Palaeoclimate?
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Why?
• Uncertainties highlighted in climate prediction involve aspects of the climate that have changed in the past (e.g. ENSO).
• Palaeoclimatology can assess whether these changes are consistent with current theories of the climate system and if not, why not.
• Palaeoclimate provides a unique test-bed for models that project large changes in the future to be evaluated using true out-of-sample tests of comparable magnitude.
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Inspiration and approaches to palaeo- ENSO as an example
• Shift in frequency/amplitude of El Nino
• Attribution to warming due to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases?
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- Policy relevant tipping elements
Adapted from Lenton et al. (2008).
Inspiration and approaches to palaeo
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10Climate Sensitivity Earth System Sensitivity
Lunt et al. (2010). Nature Geoscience
Inspiration and approaches to palaeo - Climate and Earth System Sensitivity
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Last 80million yrs
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Combining data and modelsa challenging relationship at times...
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Modelling: On the Shoulders of Giants!The great pioneers e.g.:
Eric Barron Tom Crowley John Kutzbach Paul Valdes
• Established many of the parameters and attributes of the scientific environment in which we work
• We must now add to the tapestry and unravel complexities/contradictions and understand and
quantify uncertainties.
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• Reproducing the observed record of variability and change• Reconciling palaeoclimate simulations with climate archives• Assessment of climate and earth system sensitivity
Palaeoclimatology: Grand Challenges