Download - Sea level rise science
SEA LEVEL RISE ON THE ESTUARY
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
WHAT IS SEA LEVEL?
WHAT IS SEA LEVEL?
MSL is defined as the zero elevation for a local area.
MSL is usually described as a surface that is the arithmetic mean of hourly water elevations observed over a specific 19-year cycle.
This definition averages out tidal highs and lows caused by the changing effects of the gravitational forces from the moon and sun.
WHAT IS SEA LEVEL?
HOW DO WE TRACK SEA LEVEL?
TIDE GAUGES
SATELLITES
GEOLOGY
A RISING RIVER
‣ Hudson River is over 12” higher than a century ago
‣ 21st Century SLR is much more rapid and seems to be accelerating
1856-2010: 1.7mm/yr1996-2013: 3.7mm/yr
rolling 5 year average2000 - 2011: 6.76mm/yr
Hudson River Sea Level 1856-2013
(in mm, observed at Manhattan
What causes the sea level to change?
What causes the sea level to change?
What causes the sea level to change?
LAND-BASED ICE CONTRIBUTION TO SEA LEVEL RISE
LAND-BASED ICE CONTRIBUTION TO SEA LEVEL RISE
What causes the sea level to change?
What causes the sea level to change?
What causes the sea level to change?
RELATIVE CONTRIBUTIONS TO SEA LEVEL RISE
SEA LEVEL RISE: PAST, PRESENT, FUTURE
FUTURE SEA LEVEL RISE
PREDICTING FUTURE SEA LEVEL RISE
OCEAN WARMING (THERMAL EXPANSION)
GLACIERS AND ICE CAPS
GREEENLAND
ANTARCTICA
TOTAL SEA LEVEL RISE
Levermann A et al. PNAS 2013;110:13745-13750
2.3m/degree C
4.2ft/ degree F
Text
PAST AND FUTURE SEA LEVEL RISE
from Vermeer and Rahmstorf 2008
SEA LEVEL RISE PROJECTIONS FOR HUDSON RIVER
Shown is the central range (middle 67%) of values from model-based probabilities rounded to the nearest inch.2 The rapid ice melt scenario is based on acceleration of recent rates of ice melt in the Greenland and West
Antarctic Ice sheets and paleoclimate studies.
BIODIVERSITY WATERFRONTS INFRASTRUCTURE
SEA-LEVEL RISE
Resources at Risk
FLOODING
FLOODING
A NEW NORMALSTORM SURGE EVENTS
‣ Number or frequency of events: trend unclear
‣ Higher intensity events
‣ Greater frequency of surge events in warmer years
HURRICANE SANDY
2011: Hurricane Irene
‣ 4.5FT STORM SURGE
2012: Hurricane Sandy
‣ 6.25FT STORM SURGE
A NEW NORMALSTORM SURGE EVENTS
COASTAL HAZARD:Coastal Inundation
ACCELERATING COASTAL
RISKS
.2
3
.2
3 .2
3
.2
3
.2
3
adapted from Climate Central
‣ elevated coastal storm heights and impacts
2100
se
a l
eve
l ri
se
6”
12”
18”
24”
30”
36”
42”
48”
54”
100yr
500yr
MODELING SEA-LEVEL RISE
ALONG THE HUDSON RIVER
ESTUARY
‣ 9300+ acres inundated by 2100
‣ 11,000+ acres at risk of greater flooding frequency/depth
SEA-LEVEL RISE IN
THE HUDSON RIVER
ESTUARY
Tools
‣ Sea Level Rise Mapper
www.scenichudson.org/slr
Sea Level Rise Mapper
Sea level rise is accelerating along the Hudson River,
promising to transform riverfront communities and the
ecology of the Estuary. This site provides tools and resources
for communities to plan for a more resilient future.
About Sea Level Rise
News
Mapping
Waterfront Forums
Task Forces
Kingston
Resources
Legal Tools
Smart Growth
Principles
Science Sources
Case Studies
SEA LEVEL RISE
SEA-LEVEL RISE IN THE
HUDSON RIVER
ESTUARY
Tools
‣ Inundation Zones
‣ FEMA Flood Zones
‣ Census Information
‣ Tidal Wetlands & SAV
‣ Municipal Assets
‣ Brownfields and HazMat sites
‣ Community Summaries
Sea Level Rise Mapper
Sea level rise is accelerating along the Hudson River,
promising to transform riverfront communities and the
ecology of the Estuary. This site provides tools and resources
for communities to plan for a more resilient future.
About Sea Level Rise
News
Mapping
Waterfront Forums
Task Forces
Kingston
Resources
Legal Tools
Smart Growth
Principles
Science Sources
Case Studies
SEA LEVEL RISE
FUTURE INUNDATION AREAS
DATA LAYERS
DATA LAYERS
COMMUNITY SUMMARIES
PEOPLE AT RISK
72” OF SLR
At Risk From Flooding At Risk From Flooding
HOUSEHOLDS
Inundation
Flooding
PEOPLE
Inundation
Flooding
3,654
11,929
6,911
22,221
ASSETS AT RISK
72” of SLR
RAIL LINES
102 miles
401 miles
inundation
flooding
ASSETS AT RISK
72” of SLR
RAIL LINES
102 miles
401 miles
BROWNFIELDS & HAZMATS
51 sites
195 sites
inundation
flooding
ASSETS AT RISK
72” of SLR
RAIL LINES
102 miles
401 miles
BROWNFIELDS & HAZMATS
51 sites
195 sites
TREATMENT PLANTS
3 plants
11 plants
inundation
flooding
VULNERABLE INFRASTRUCTURE
Wastewater Treatment Plants
VULNERABLE INFRASTRUCTURE
Wastewater Treatment Plants
TIDAL WETLANDS OF THE HUDSON
THE RETURN OF HUDSON RIVER ISLANDS
THE FUTURE OF TIDAL HABITATS
5,000 years ago Today
sediment and peat
formationFuture
wetland migration
potential where there is
vacant land
complete wetland loss
where shoreline is
hardened
200720202040206020802100
Transitional Scrub-Shrub Tidal Swamp
Irreg.-Flooded Marsh Regularly-Flooded Marsh
Vegetated Tidal Flat Tidal Flat
Developed Upland
Undeveloped Upland
Upland Wetland
200720202040206020802100
Transitional Scrub-Shrub Tidal Swamp
Irreg.-Flooded Marsh Regularly-Flooded Marsh
Vegetated Tidal Flat Tidal Flat
Developed Upland
Undeveloped Upland
Upland Wetland
GET AHEAD OF THE CURVE
‣ How can we reduce risks to people, property and nature?
‣ What should our goals be for addressing climate change?
“Skate to where the puck is going to be...” - Wayne Gretsky
“Manage the unavoidable, and avoid the unmanageable”
- Rip Rapson
RESOURCES
‣ SCENIC HUDSONwww.scenichudson.org/slr
‣ CLIMATE CENTRALwww.sealevel.climatecentral.org
‣ US GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM
www.globalchange.gov/browse/educators
‣ HUDSON RIVER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OBSERVING SYSTEM
www.hrecos.org