An Update on Trends Impacting Chemicals and Materials for Solar Cells and Modules
Mark ThirskManaging Partner, Linx Consulting
+1 617 273 [email protected]
Subsidy Dependency Time Frame
• Solar PV is not a mature market. It will remain “policy driven” for the next years. Supply chains must manage growth, plan around policy support mechanisms, and above all not lose flexibility.
• Solar returns are highly sensitive to solar subsidies. Any reduction/withdrawal of subsidies could drastically pull down solar returns, making solar investment unattractive among end customers and thereby reduce the demand for systems.
• Public policy risks require understanding and scenario analysis.
The PV market is policy driven
Adapting to externalities
• How to adapt to policy change?
I. Institute short-term change analysis and adapt the business in real-time to where competitive advantage is proved.
II. Drive out cost and reduce prices while preserving quality.
III. Embrace strategies that increase market share in targeted markets while solving for lower cost distribution and financing.
– Value growth that solves bullets I, II, and III
LINX-AEI CONSULTING 2SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
PV Module Demand Forecast
Source: Linx-AEI Consulting
LINX-AEI CONSULTING 3SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
Future Growth Rates
• During next three years (2010 to 2013), PV market could grow at a CAGR of 33%.
• The growth is expected to come from all the markets and we expect distributed growth.
• The strong growth is expected to come from China, Greece, ROW and USA.
• The share of Germany is expected to gradually fall to ~30% by 2013 from the current ~50%.
• We anticipate negative growth in Italy due to political uncertainty and expected FiT reduction.
Ranking:
1. Germany
2. Italy
3. USA
4. China
Ranking:
1. Germany
2. USA
3. China
4. Italy
Ranking:
1. Germany
2. USA
3. China
4. ROW
Ranking:
1. Germany
2. USA
3. China
4. ROW
Source: Linx-AEI Consulting
Source: Linx-AEI Consulting
LINX-AEI CONSULTING 4SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
Demand by Cell Type
LINX-AEI CONSULTING SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON 5
Source: Linx-AEI Consulting
PV Module Demand Forecast
Growth Trend – 2010 over 2009 4Q ‘09 1Q ‘10 2Q ‘10
Germany FIT cut driving “pull-in” boosting demand in 1H10, 2H demand potentially supported by sustainable economics with predominant risks including inventory and potential double orders
Spain Flat – subsidy constrained
Italy Moderate growthPolitical uncertainty
France Strong growth, aiming for a 23% share of renewable energy sources by 2020, and 21% of the final consumption of energy by 2010.
Greece Moderate growth as subsidies enacted –debt crisis
Japan Moderate growthNew subsidy rules in preparation
USA New subsidy rules in preparationStrong growth – continued delays in Energy legislation
China New subsidies have the potential to promote explosive growth – Government delays continue (2011 5-year plan?)
ROE
ROW
Inventory Global inventory growth
LINX-AEI CONSULTING 6SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
Source: Linx-AEI Consulting
Module Prices Are Stable To Rising
Source: Linx-AEI Consulting
LINX-AEI CONSULTING 7SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
Source: Linx-AEI Consulting
IRR Analysis – c-Si
Geographic View Technological View
c-Si a-Si (Triple) µc-Si / a-Si CdTe
Source: Linx-AEI Consulting
LINX-AEI CONSULTING 8SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
IRR Analysis – Germany
Geographic View Technological View
Germany Italy Spain California Japan
Source: Linx-AEI Consulting
LINX-AEI CONSULTING 9SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
Majority of the capacity additions in 2010 are expected to come from China followed by USA and Germany
2010 Total Capacity Breakup
Source: Linx-AEI Consulting
LINX-AEI CONSULTING 10SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
Polysilicon Supply & Demand
The share of solar is increasing in the consumption of polysilicon. By 2012 solar sector will be the main customer consuming 83% of polysilicon produced.
CAPEX, Product Development costs, Quality and Service will be markedly different for the two segments.
Polysilicon Share between Semiconductor & Solar
42% 39% 32%23%
58% 61% 68%77%
17%
49%
83%
51%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Sem iconductor Indus try Solar Indus try
Source: Linx-AEI Consulting
LINX-AEI CONSULTING 11SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
Polysilicon Supply & Demand
The large PV capacity creates imbalance in the medium term. Even in the downside supply scenario the supply exceeds demand.
Further correction is expected in the wafer ASPs.
Recent capacity additions still ramping up production and quality.
PV Demand Vs. Supply
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
MWp
PV Demand (MW) Production Potential (Base Case)
Production Potential (Upside) Production Potential (Downside)
Source: Linx-AEI Consulting
LINX-AEI CONSULTING 12SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
Cost Reduction
• Cell manufacturing cost reduction strategies rely on combinations of the following four tactical approaches:
• Scope and scale: Large scale manufacturing offers the optimum route to low cost wafer, cell, and module manufacture for all technologies. Large scale manufacture will likely limit as logistics cost rise as a proportion to end market pricing.
• Manufacturing excellence: Automation, excellent quality systems, efficient supply chains and optimized physical and electrical yield.
• Cell design and efficiency: Cell designs are evolving rapidly, with both process improvements, changes in architecture, and radical redesigns of the cell and module. Modifications will all be evaluated on the resultant LCOE.
• Materials Cost Reduction: Continued material efficiency improvements, coupled with constant price reduction pressure, and novel solutions will all add to reducing BOM costs.
LINX-AEI CONSULTING 13SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
C-Si Cell Technology Roadmap
Current Leading Edge Medium Term2012
Future
Wafer Multi c-Si 180 mMono c-Si 145 mPredominantly p-typeWire sawn
Multi c-Si 140-160 mMono c-Si 120 mMainly p-typeDiamond Wire sawn
Multi c-Si <120 mMono c-Si <100 mn- and p-typeThin film on carrier substrateCleaved
Texturization Multi c-Si Acid basedMono c-Si Alkali based
Multi c-Si acids / alkali Mono c-Si acids / alkali Formulated texturizers
Acids / alkali LaserDry etch
Junction Engineering Single diffusion Selective EmitterDeposited passivation
Backside selective emitterBoron BSFEmitter wrap and metal wrap
Anti Reflection PECVD PECVDPVDCoat
PECVDPVDCoat
Contact Printed Paste Plated Front gridBack contactNon-contact paste deposition
Silicide Point contact + Al Interdigitated back gridInterconnect on Backsheet
LINX-AEI CONSULTING 14SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
Source: Linx-AEI Consulting
Roadmap Analysis
• The CTM (Crystalline Cell Technology and Manufacturers) Group and the SEMI PV Group developed a first draft International Technology Roadmap for PV that was presented in June 2010.
• Key conclusions include:– Wp cost reductions are expected to continue to fall at 8 to 14% p.a.– Although many technology solutions are available, near in solutions are in need of optimization– Medium term technology solutions are either too expensive, or not yet available
• Together with improved materials and technology solutions significant process improvements are needed.
– Mechanical yield must be improved by a factor of 3– Equipment uptime must be improved to >96% in 2020– Single line throughput must be increased to 3600wph (front end) and 1800 wph (back end) by
2012, and further doubled by 2020– A 70% reduction in the number of line operators by 2020– Increased percentage of back contact designs from 5% in 2010 to 50% in 2020
LINX-AEI CONSULTING 15SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
CTM Draft Roadmap
Parameter 2010 2011 2013 2015 2020 Comments
Wafer Thickness / mMultiMono
180180
150140
135130
120110
100100
Currently some wafers are manufactured at 140-150 m.
Wafer TTV / m 25 22 18 18 12 Improved sawing accuracy.Reduced Si kerf loss will reduce cost.
Device characteristics
Emitter Sheet ResistanceΩ/square
65 80 100 120 120 Improved Si quality.
Recombination Current (Front)fA/cm2
475 300 200 175 80 Selective emitters help reduce recombination while reducing contact resistance
Recombination Current (Back)fA/cm2
775 700 275 100 50 Al BSF cannot achieve less than 100
Finger Width / m 110 90 75 55 35 Constant resistance is required.Selective emitters offer lower contact resistance, but at higher CoO
Alignment Accuracy / m 30 20 12 10 10 Improved alignment to enable multiple paste printing and alignment to selective emitters
Industrial solutions exist
Solutions exist, but not in production
Interim solutions exist but at high cost
Solutions not known
Source : CTM Group / Linx AEI
LINX-AEI CONSULTING 16SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
LG Plasma Texturization
• LG is experimenting with Reactive Ion Etch (RIE) texturization of PV wafers.
• The surface combines nanoscale roughness with macro scale roughness to extend the wavelength absorption of the incident light.
• Throughput and CoO concerns are likely to constrain this process to small scale use
Traditional wet texturization results in scalloped surfaces
RIE etch leaves roughness on varying dimensions that offers increased light absorption across multiple wavelengths
LINX-AEI CONSULTING 17SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
Sixtron Silane Replacement
• Sixtron has introduced a liquid precursor that allows the CVD deposition of SiCxNy films without the requirement to use the pyrophoric silane gas (SiH4). Sixtron claim the films have been demonstrated to provide an effective alternative for deposition of anti-reflection and passivation coatings for high-performance mono-crystalline boron doped p-type Cz (Czochralski) silicon solar with the following benefits
– Less Light Induced Degradation (LID) with excellent stability– Higher shunt resistance– Lower reverse leakage current
• Rear-side p-type silicon surface passivation: PECVD SiO2/SiCxNy rear side stack has a claimed better cell efficiency than PECVD SiO2/SiNx stack for PERC-type cell
• The precursor allows for the deposition of SiC, SiCN, SiCO, SiCON etc, for both front-side and rear-side passivation.
LINX-AEI CONSULTING 18SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
Rearside Passivation
• A further process improvement to improve rear rearside contact adds a PVD Ni flash to form a Ni silicide layer that limits interdiffusion of Al and Si, and forms low resistance ohmic contacts.
– Thermal oxidation / SiNx PECVD deposition – Laser via opening– Thin Ni PVD – 400 °C anneal to form silicide in the contact openings– Short Ni etch to remove remaining Ni– Paste or PVD Al deposition
Silicon wafer
Dielectric
Al Rear reflector and conductor
Ni SilicideLaser ablated via
LINX-AEI CONSULTING 19SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
Laser Transfer Print
• BASF/aurentum laser based non-contact metal deposition technology is designed to allow direct write of pastes onto thin wafers.
• The inks, formulated by BASF are lead free, and are available in water based formulations for both Ag and Al inks.
• The ink is continually replaced on a rotating transparent foil, and control systems monitor viscosity of the ink.
• Direct write allows arbitrary patterns to be laid down from design files
• The print head is incorporated in Schmid printing equipment and can print wafers at 1500 wph.
Ink supply
Rotating transparent foil
laser
Substrate on vacuum conveyor
LINX-AEI CONSULTING 20SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
Materials Demand Forecast for PV Cells
LINX-AEI CONSULTING 21SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
Source: Linx-AEI Consulting
Solar Cell Moduling Encapsulant Segmentation
LINX-AEI CONSULTING 22SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
Backsheet
Fluoropolymer
PET
Adhesive
Moisture Barrier
Sunarc Antireflective Technology
• Sunarc produces antireflective layers by etching the glass surfaces (front and back, with “mild chemicals”) that result in a 100 nm thick porous layer that has a refractive index of 1.24, reducing reflectance to 1.5% at each surface.
• This allows glass (i.e. module glass or TF substrates) to be about 96% transmissive across the full solar spectrum, increasing the irradiance available to the semiconducting absorber.
• Sunarc guarantees 85% of transmission improvement for 10years
LINX-AEI CONSULTING 23SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
Polymer Front Sheets
• FujiFilm announced the availability of PET based front sheets for c-Si modules, replacing glass in the usual configuration.
• The frontsheets are combined with an environmental barrier layer to reduce moisture ingress
• The PET offers high transmission and is UV stabilized
• The PET frontsheet reduces module weight, and allows some module flexibility
PET Front Sheet
Barrier Layer
EVA Adhesive
C-Si Cells
EVA Adhesive
PET Back Sheet
LINX-AEI CONSULTING 24SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
Module Market – All Cell Types
LINX-AEI CONSULTING 25SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
Source: Linx-AEI Consulting
Critical Roles for Supply Chain Participants
Crystalline Silicon• Factory yield increases are critical to bring down costs
– Efficiency improvements are crucial. Novel materials are needed• Cell efficiency is a key differentiator
– Novel material solutions in cells and modules, and process improvements need to be measured in terms of LCOE benefits
– Passivation, texturization, cleaning technologies, and low resistance connections are all needed for new architectures
Thin Film Cells• Tandem / Hybrid cells
– Process improvements are needed to improve efficiency– Moduling and sealing improvements are desirable
• CI(G)S– OEM supported manufacturing routes are maturing, aiding viable manufacturing capacity growth– Material improvements are important to accelerating the technology
• This is a market with significant opportunities for suppliers willing to enter; however novel technology will need to deliver a favorable benefit : price ratios to succeed broadly over incumbent technologies.
LINX-AEI CONSULTING 26SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON