[semi theater] update on trends impacting chemicals/materials for solar cells/modules

An Update on Trends Impacting Chemicals and Materials for Solar Cells and Modules

Mark ThirskManaging Partner, Linx Consulting

+1 617 273 [email protected]

Subsidy Dependency Time Frame

• Solar PV is not a mature market. It will remain “policy driven” for the next years. Supply chains must manage growth, plan around policy support mechanisms, and above all not lose flexibility.

• Solar returns are highly sensitive to solar subsidies. Any reduction/withdrawal of subsidies could drastically pull down solar returns, making solar investment unattractive among end customers and thereby reduce the demand for systems.

• Public policy risks require understanding and scenario analysis.

The PV market is policy driven

Adapting to externalities

• How to adapt to policy change?

I. Institute short-term change analysis and adapt the business in real-time to where competitive advantage is proved.

II. Drive out cost and reduce prices while preserving quality.

III. Embrace strategies that increase market share in targeted markets while solving for lower cost distribution and financing.

– Value growth that solves bullets I, II, and III

LINX-AEI CONSULTING 2SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON

PV Module Demand Forecast

Source: Linx-AEI Consulting


Future Growth Rates

• During next three years (2010 to 2013), PV market could grow at a CAGR of 33%.

• The growth is expected to come from all the markets and we expect distributed growth.

• The strong growth is expected to come from China, Greece, ROW and USA.

• The share of Germany is expected to gradually fall to ~30% by 2013 from the current ~50%.

• We anticipate negative growth in Italy due to political uncertainty and expected FiT reduction.

Ranking:

1. Germany

2. Italy

3. USA

4. China

Ranking:

1. Germany

2. USA

3. China

4. Italy

Ranking:

1. Germany

2. USA

3. China

4. ROW

Ranking:

1. Germany

2. USA

3. China

4. ROW




Demand by Cell Type

LINX-AEI CONSULTING SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON 5


PV Module Demand Forecast

Growth Trend – 2010 over 2009 4Q ‘09 1Q ‘10 2Q ‘10

Germany FIT cut driving “pull-in” boosting demand in 1H10, 2H demand potentially supported by sustainable economics with predominant risks including inventory and potential double orders

Spain Flat – subsidy constrained

Italy Moderate growthPolitical uncertainty

France Strong growth, aiming for a 23% share of renewable energy sources by 2020, and 21% of the final consumption of energy by 2010.

Greece Moderate growth as subsidies enacted –debt crisis

Japan Moderate growthNew subsidy rules in preparation

USA New subsidy rules in preparationStrong growth – continued delays in Energy legislation

China New subsidies have the potential to promote explosive growth – Government delays continue (2011 5-year plan?)

ROE

ROW

Inventory Global inventory growth



Module Prices Are Stable To Rising




IRR Analysis – c-Si

Geographic View Technological View

c-Si a-Si (Triple) µc-Si / a-Si CdTe



IRR Analysis – Germany

Geographic View Technological View

Germany Italy Spain California Japan



Majority of the capacity additions in 2010 are expected to come from China followed by USA and Germany

2010 Total Capacity Breakup



Polysilicon Supply & Demand

The share of solar is increasing in the consumption of polysilicon. By 2012 solar sector will be the main customer consuming 83% of polysilicon produced.

CAPEX, Product Development costs, Quality and Service will be markedly different for the two segments.

Polysilicon Share between Semiconductor & Solar

42% 39% 32%23%

58% 61% 68%77%

17%

49%

83%

51%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Sem iconductor Indus try Solar Indus try



Polysilicon Supply & Demand

The large PV capacity creates imbalance in the medium term. Even in the downside supply scenario the supply exceeds demand.

Further correction is expected in the wafer ASPs.

Recent capacity additions still ramping up production and quality.

PV Demand Vs. Supply

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

MWp

PV Demand (MW) Production Potential (Base Case)

Production Potential (Upside) Production Potential (Downside)



Cost Reduction

• Cell manufacturing cost reduction strategies rely on combinations of the following four tactical approaches:

• Scope and scale: Large scale manufacturing offers the optimum route to low cost wafer, cell, and module manufacture for all technologies. Large scale manufacture will likely limit as logistics cost rise as a proportion to end market pricing.

• Manufacturing excellence: Automation, excellent quality systems, efficient supply chains and optimized physical and electrical yield.

• Cell design and efficiency: Cell designs are evolving rapidly, with both process improvements, changes in architecture, and radical redesigns of the cell and module. Modifications will all be evaluated on the resultant LCOE.

• Materials Cost Reduction: Continued material efficiency improvements, coupled with constant price reduction pressure, and novel solutions will all add to reducing BOM costs.


C-Si Cell Technology Roadmap

Current Leading Edge Medium Term2012

Future

Wafer Multi c-Si 180 mMono c-Si 145 mPredominantly p-typeWire sawn

Multi c-Si 140-160 mMono c-Si 120 mMainly p-typeDiamond Wire sawn

Multi c-Si <120 mMono c-Si <100 mn- and p-typeThin film on carrier substrateCleaved

Texturization Multi c-Si Acid basedMono c-Si Alkali based

Multi c-Si acids / alkali Mono c-Si acids / alkali Formulated texturizers

Acids / alkali LaserDry etch

Junction Engineering Single diffusion Selective EmitterDeposited passivation

Backside selective emitterBoron BSFEmitter wrap and metal wrap

Anti Reflection PECVD PECVDPVDCoat

PECVDPVDCoat

Contact Printed Paste Plated Front gridBack contactNon-contact paste deposition

Silicide Point contact + Al Interdigitated back gridInterconnect on Backsheet



Roadmap Analysis

• The CTM (Crystalline Cell Technology and Manufacturers) Group and the SEMI PV Group developed a first draft International Technology Roadmap for PV that was presented in June 2010.

• Key conclusions include:– Wp cost reductions are expected to continue to fall at 8 to 14% p.a.– Although many technology solutions are available, near in solutions are in need of optimization– Medium term technology solutions are either too expensive, or not yet available

• Together with improved materials and technology solutions significant process improvements are needed.

– Mechanical yield must be improved by a factor of 3– Equipment uptime must be improved to >96% in 2020– Single line throughput must be increased to 3600wph (front end) and 1800 wph (back end) by

2012, and further doubled by 2020– A 70% reduction in the number of line operators by 2020– Increased percentage of back contact designs from 5% in 2010 to 50% in 2020


CTM Draft Roadmap

Parameter 2010 2011 2013 2015 2020 Comments

Wafer Thickness / mMultiMono

180180

150140

135130

120110

100100

Currently some wafers are manufactured at 140-150 m.

Wafer TTV / m 25 22 18 18 12 Improved sawing accuracy.Reduced Si kerf loss will reduce cost.

Device characteristics

Emitter Sheet ResistanceΩ/square

65 80 100 120 120 Improved Si quality.

Recombination Current (Front)fA/cm2

475 300 200 175 80 Selective emitters help reduce recombination while reducing contact resistance

Recombination Current (Back)fA/cm2

775 700 275 100 50 Al BSF cannot achieve less than 100

Finger Width / m 110 90 75 55 35 Constant resistance is required.Selective emitters offer lower contact resistance, but at higher CoO

Alignment Accuracy / m 30 20 12 10 10 Improved alignment to enable multiple paste printing and alignment to selective emitters

Industrial solutions exist

Solutions exist, but not in production

Interim solutions exist but at high cost

Solutions not known

Source : CTM Group / Linx AEI


LG Plasma Texturization

• LG is experimenting with Reactive Ion Etch (RIE) texturization of PV wafers.

• The surface combines nanoscale roughness with macro scale roughness to extend the wavelength absorption of the incident light.

• Throughput and CoO concerns are likely to constrain this process to small scale use

Traditional wet texturization results in scalloped surfaces

RIE etch leaves roughness on varying dimensions that offers increased light absorption across multiple wavelengths


Sixtron Silane Replacement

• Sixtron has introduced a liquid precursor that allows the CVD deposition of SiCxNy films without the requirement to use the pyrophoric silane gas (SiH4). Sixtron claim the films have been demonstrated to provide an effective alternative for deposition of anti-reflection and passivation coatings for high-performance mono-crystalline boron doped p-type Cz (Czochralski) silicon solar with the following benefits

– Less Light Induced Degradation (LID) with excellent stability– Higher shunt resistance– Lower reverse leakage current

• Rear-side p-type silicon surface passivation: PECVD SiO2/SiCxNy rear side stack has a claimed better cell efficiency than PECVD SiO2/SiNx stack for PERC-type cell

• The precursor allows for the deposition of SiC, SiCN, SiCO, SiCON etc, for both front-side and rear-side passivation.


Rearside Passivation

• A further process improvement to improve rear rearside contact adds a PVD Ni flash to form a Ni silicide layer that limits interdiffusion of Al and Si, and forms low resistance ohmic contacts.

– Thermal oxidation / SiNx PECVD deposition – Laser via opening– Thin Ni PVD – 400 °C anneal to form silicide in the contact openings– Short Ni etch to remove remaining Ni– Paste or PVD Al deposition

Silicon wafer

Dielectric

Al Rear reflector and conductor

Ni SilicideLaser ablated via


Laser Transfer Print

• BASF/aurentum laser based non-contact metal deposition technology is designed to allow direct write of pastes onto thin wafers.

• The inks, formulated by BASF are lead free, and are available in water based formulations for both Ag and Al inks.

• The ink is continually replaced on a rotating transparent foil, and control systems monitor viscosity of the ink.

• Direct write allows arbitrary patterns to be laid down from design files

• The print head is incorporated in Schmid printing equipment and can print wafers at 1500 wph.

Ink supply

Rotating transparent foil

laser

Substrate on vacuum conveyor


Materials Demand Forecast for PV Cells



Solar Cell Moduling Encapsulant Segmentation


Backsheet

Fluoropolymer

PET

Adhesive

Moisture Barrier

Sunarc Antireflective Technology

• Sunarc produces antireflective layers by etching the glass surfaces (front and back, with “mild chemicals”) that result in a 100 nm thick porous layer that has a refractive index of 1.24, reducing reflectance to 1.5% at each surface.

• This allows glass (i.e. module glass or TF substrates) to be about 96% transmissive across the full solar spectrum, increasing the irradiance available to the semiconducting absorber.

• Sunarc guarantees 85% of transmission improvement for 10years


Polymer Front Sheets

• FujiFilm announced the availability of PET based front sheets for c-Si modules, replacing glass in the usual configuration.

• The frontsheets are combined with an environmental barrier layer to reduce moisture ingress

• The PET offers high transmission and is UV stabilized

• The PET frontsheet reduces module weight, and allows some module flexibility

PET Front Sheet

Barrier Layer

EVA Adhesive

C-Si Cells

EVA Adhesive

PET Back Sheet


Module Market – All Cell Types



Critical Roles for Supply Chain Participants

Crystalline Silicon• Factory yield increases are critical to bring down costs

– Efficiency improvements are crucial. Novel materials are needed• Cell efficiency is a key differentiator

– Novel material solutions in cells and modules, and process improvements need to be measured in terms of LCOE benefits

– Passivation, texturization, cleaning technologies, and low resistance connections are all needed for new architectures

Thin Film Cells• Tandem / Hybrid cells

– Process improvements are needed to improve efficiency– Moduling and sealing improvements are desirable

• CI(G)S– OEM supported manufacturing routes are maturing, aiding viable manufacturing capacity growth– Material improvements are important to accelerating the technology

• This is a market with significant opportunities for suppliers willing to enter; however novel technology will need to deliver a favorable benefit : price ratios to succeed broadly over incumbent technologies.


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