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The 3rd Industrial Revolution?Exploring the future of value creation
Dr. Robin Teigland Karinda Rhode in SLStockholm School of Economicswww.knowledgenetworking.orgwww.slideshare.net/eteigland
RobinTeigland
February 2013www.hhs.se
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"...when the rate of change outside an organization is greater than the rate of
change inside, the end is near...."
Jack Welch…
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Increasing pace of change
Of original Forbes 100 in 1917- 61 companies ceased to exist by 1987- 18 of remaining 39 underperformed market by
20%- Only 2 beat market index (GE & Eastman
Kodak)- Only 1 (1%) today!
Average S&P 500 company lifespan−1920s – 67 years−2010s – 15 years
Dr. Richard Foster, Yale, Sept 2012−Today's rate of change is at faster pace than
ever −By 2020 prediction is > 75% of S&P 500 will be
companies we do not know about todayhttp://www.fastcompany.com/3001444/what-zara-pg-and-berlitz-know-about-agility
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Did You Know: Shift Happenshttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cL9Wu2kWwSY&feature=search
1. What trends do you recognize?
2. How are these trends affecting you and your organization?
3. What does this have to do with networks?
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Growth
Time
Information and knowledge
Human absorptive capacity
Human capacity cannot keep up…
Adapted from Cohen & Levinthal 1989
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A Big Bang in the Information Universe
2.7Blndaily comments and ”likes” on Facebook
500Mlndaily posts on Twitter and Weibo combined
200kvideos uploaded to YouTube daily
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet, Tomas Larsson, 2012
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Big Data is now big money
Tomas Larsson, Sep 2012
http://hbr.org/2012/10/data-scientist-the-sexiest-job-of-the-21st-century/ar/1
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”No one knows everything, everyone knows something,
all knowledge resides in humanity.”
networks
Adapted from Lévy 1997
Six degrees of separation
- Milgram, 1967
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3.74 degrees of separation!
Source: Facebook
Aug 20125 mln active
monthly users in Sweden
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Growing social media landscapes
http://www.resonancechina.com/2012/03/13/updated-2012-china-social-media-landscape/
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People > 45 years becoming more active
Edison Research, 2012 - US-based study
% age group with personal profile on any social networking website
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Social media gaining in influence on buying decisions
Which ONE social networking site or service influences your buying decisions the most?
Edison Research, 2012 - US-based study
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67% in USA do not follow a brand in social media and for those who do, no one brand
dominates
Of 332 responsesEdison Research, 2012
Think about the companies, brands, products and services
you enjoy following on social networking sites. What is the first ONE that comes to mind?
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Creation > curation
46% Creators: Create and post photos, videos, etc.
41% Curators: Find and post photos, videos, etc.
http://pewinternet.org/Reports/2012/Online-Pictures.aspx
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The wisdom of the crowd
ClosedExpensiveComplexAccurate
OpenInexpensive
SimpleClose enough
Hinton 2007
AccurateUp-to-date
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History tends to repeat itself….Innovation, financial crisis, industrial revolution,
…
Steam engine
Internal combustion
engine
Microelectronics
Late 18th C Late 19th C Late 20th C
Schön 2008
Third industrial revolution?
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Where have the traditional sources of sustainable competitive advantage been?
#1
InnovationNetworks of relationships
Brand & Reputation
FIRM
Kaye 1993
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#1
InnovationNetworks of relationships
Brand & Reputation
FIRM
TWhere are tomorrow’s sources of
sustainable competitive advantage?
Teigland 2010
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Group Exercise
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For groups 1-3 – Crowdsourcing
One company per group1. Quirky.com 2. LocalMotors.com3. Threadless.com
• Prepare max 10 min ppt presentation. 1. What is the company’s business model?2. How does the company use social media?3. What benefits does the community
provide the company?4. How could your customers use
crowdsourcing?5. What products/services could Tieto
develop?6. Include videos and internet images.
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For group 4 – 3D printing
Prepare max 10 min ppt presentation. 1. How is this technology being used
today?2. How could it be used in the future?3. How could it change the future of retail?4. How could your customers use 3D
printing?5. What products/services could Tieto
develop?6. Include videos and internet images.
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For group 5 – BitCoin
Prepare max 10 min ppt presentation. 1. What is BitCoin and how is it used
today?2. How could it be used in the future?3. How could it change the future of
commerce?4. What does this mean for Tieto?5. Include videos and internet images.
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Some search tips
Some search tips−www.twitter.com−Homepages/websites /blogs−www.wikipedia.org−www.slideshare.net−www.youtube.com−www.flickr.com, instagram−Groups on www.linkedin.com−www.facebook.com
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sketchstreet
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From clothing to home products….
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The new market place
A shift by companies from being “problem solvers” to “solution finders”
Ericsson & Augur 2011
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Shifting market logic
Ericsson & Augur 2011
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Into the future….
Who develops it?
Who finances it?
Who manufactures it?
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The Firm
The Collective
vs
E.g., Microsoft~ Built by employees within
organizational boundaries
E.g., Linux~ Built by users and distributed freely regardless of affiliation
Models of Knowledge Creation
Teigland, Di Gangi, & Yetis 2012
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“Open source” …not just about software anymore
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Open innovation in automotive design/production
“Local Motors is the place for people to create influential vehicles together.”
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New forms of financing
http://blog.intuit.com/trends/crowd-power-what-is-crowdfunding-infographic/
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And even new forms of currency
Mahaley 2012
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3D printing becoming more commonplace…
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…and it’s no longer just for companies
3D scanning apps
Affordable home 3D printers
In stores near you
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Where is all this
happening?Online
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Access to 24x7 global workforce
Matchmakers: USD 1bln industry
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Increasing supply of freelance talent globally
https://www.elance.com/trends/talent-available
Global Online Employment ReportQ2 2012 at Elance
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InternetComm + Open Source + 3d Printing
http://mashable.com/2013/02/13/robohand/
$USD150
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Just when you thought you got it….
Here comes the Immersive Internet….
O’Driscoll 2009
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What are Virtual Worlds ?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Quh2OiPHkm8
Platforms for unleashing creativity and revolutionizing
value creation
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“Clearly, if social activity migrates to synthetic worlds, economic activity will
go there as well.” Castronova, 2006
$14.8 billion worldwide market for virtual goods in 2012E
http://www.superdataresearch.com/monetization-is-a-four-letter-word/
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US$ 635,000 for a virtual asteroid!
http://blogs.forbes.com/oliverchiang/2010/11/13/meet-the-man-who-just-made-a-cool-half-million-from-the-sale-of-virtual-property/
• US$ 500,000 profit in 5 years by Jon “Neverdie”
Jacobs• Entropia Universe with GDP
>US$ 440 mln
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Accelerating innovation to meet global needs
Teigland et al. 2010
Integrating users in development
process
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2kMNWBU1Yb8
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The future of immersion…
http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-19568451
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Coming soon – by Palgrave Macmillan
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From factories to office parks to….
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Here today, gone tomorrow?
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From the mobility of goods to the mobility of financial capital to …
Teigland, JVWR, 2010
...the “mobility” of labor?
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Some things do not change
Innovation Exchange
Exchange Trust
Trust RelationshipsRelationships Interaction
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Are you ready?
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How do you stay in command
……while letting go of
control?
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Karinda Rhode
aka Robin [email protected]
www.knowledgenetworking.org
www.slideshare.net/eteigland
www.nordicworlds.net RobinTeigland
Photo: Lindholm, Metro
Photo: Nordenskiöld
Photo: Lindqvist
If you love knowledge, set it
free…
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Interested in learning more?