The Defence & Security Implications of Climate ChangeProfessor Alan Dupont
ChronologyUN debates political & security implications of
Climate Change in 2007 for the first time
CIA and ONA do classified assessments
Pentagon and Australian Defence& NS studies
At centre of Europe’s foreign policy
2009 Defence White PaperNeighbourhood will be particularly affected.
Exacerbate existing precursors for conflict.
Could give rise to very old forms of confrontation and war, such as clashes between states over resources.
More frequent and severe natural disasters and weather – humanitarian assistance and disaster relief.
2009 Defence White Paper“Uncertainty about the effects of climate change and the period of time over which potential impacts may develop makes it difficult to assess its strategic consequences.”
Strategic consequences will not be felt before 2030.
2013 Defence White PaperIssue framed as a driver of resource insecurity.
“Global energy, food and water resources are under pressure from population growth, rising affluence and climate change”
Why is Climate Change a Security Issue?
Necessitates judgements about political & strategic risk – a threat multiplier
Poses fundamental questions of human security, survival and stability of nation states
Central problem is the rate at which temperatures are rising – little time to adapt and mitigate
How Will Climate Change Affect Security?Negative consequences for food, energy and water
and hence economic and political stability
Increased frequency and devastation of natural disasters, generating more humanitarian disasters requiring international relief
Environmental refugees and population displacements
How Will Climate Change Affect Security?Spread of infectious diseases
Will reduce the carrying capacity of developing countries in Australia’s neighbourhood
Impact will be magnified where other problems exist eg. terrorism, ethnic tensions, pandemics, civil war.
Climate Wild CardsLow probability but high impact events
Wild Cards – rapid or abrupt climate change
Tipping Points
Reduction in aerosol masking; accelerated deforestation; rapid melting of the tundra ice or polar ice
Policy Recommendation
“Strategic planners ought to include worse case climate change scenarios in their contingency planning as they do for terrorism, infectious diseases and conventional military challenges to national security.” Alan Dupont (2006)
Climate Change and DefenceClimate Change will affect where, when, why and
how the ADF operates
It will shape Defence’s operating environment
Asia Pacific particularly affected
Defence still has no climate change strategy
Operational & Personnel ImplicationsGreater numbers of stabilisation operations
Regional cooperation on Climate Change
More humanitarian and disaster relief ops including domestic
Greater demand for engineers, doctors, transport, intelligence
Operational & Personnel ImplicationsNew design standards such as shelters for fighter
aircraft, munitions storage, runways
Conforming to environmental regulations
Energy considerations. Defence accounts for 70% of total govt energy use
More stresses and demands on force structure
ConclusionsClimate change increasingly factored into defence and security assessments.
Australia lagging behind other DCs.Residual CC scepticism has stalled momentum towards more robust policy stances.
Compounded by conservatism of Defence.
Unclear how CC will be dealt with in a Coalition government.
END
THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION
1900 TODAY
SHRINKING GLACIERS
(Source: Munich Society for Environmental Research)