The Defence & Security Implications of Climate ChangeProfessor Alan Dupont

ChronologyUN debates political & security implications of

Climate Change in 2007 for the first time

CIA and ONA do classified assessments

Pentagon and Australian Defence& NS studies

At centre of Europe’s foreign policy

2009 Defence White PaperNeighbourhood will be particularly affected.

Exacerbate existing precursors for conflict.

Could give rise to very old forms of confrontation and war, such as clashes between states over resources.

More frequent and severe natural disasters and weather – humanitarian assistance and disaster relief.

2009 Defence White Paper“Uncertainty about the effects of climate change and the period of time over which potential impacts may develop makes it difficult to assess its strategic consequences.”

Strategic consequences will not be felt before 2030.

2013 Defence White PaperIssue framed as a driver of resource insecurity.

“Global energy, food and water resources are under pressure from population growth, rising affluence and climate change”

Why is Climate Change a Security Issue?

Necessitates judgements about political & strategic risk – a threat multiplier

Poses fundamental questions of human security, survival and stability of nation states

Central problem is the rate at which temperatures are rising – little time to adapt and mitigate

How Will Climate Change Affect Security?Negative consequences for food, energy and water

and hence economic and political stability

Increased frequency and devastation of natural disasters, generating more humanitarian disasters requiring international relief

Environmental refugees and population displacements

How Will Climate Change Affect Security?Spread of infectious diseases

Will reduce the carrying capacity of developing countries in Australia’s neighbourhood

Impact will be magnified where other problems exist eg. terrorism, ethnic tensions, pandemics, civil war.

Climate Wild CardsLow probability but high impact events

Wild Cards – rapid or abrupt climate change

Tipping Points

Reduction in aerosol masking; accelerated deforestation; rapid melting of the tundra ice or polar ice

Policy Recommendation

“Strategic planners ought to include worse case climate change scenarios in their contingency planning as they do for terrorism, infectious diseases and conventional military challenges to national security.” Alan Dupont (2006)

Climate Change and DefenceClimate Change will affect where, when, why and

how the ADF operates

It will shape Defence’s operating environment

Asia Pacific particularly affected

Defence still has no climate change strategy

Operational & Personnel ImplicationsGreater numbers of stabilisation operations

Regional cooperation on Climate Change

More humanitarian and disaster relief ops including domestic

Greater demand for engineers, doctors, transport, intelligence

Operational & Personnel ImplicationsNew design standards such as shelters for fighter

aircraft, munitions storage, runways

Conforming to environmental regulations

Energy considerations. Defence accounts for 70% of total govt energy use

More stresses and demands on force structure

ConclusionsClimate change increasingly factored into defence and security assessments.

Australia lagging behind other DCs.Residual CC scepticism has stalled momentum towards more robust policy stances.

Compounded by conservatism of Defence.

Unclear how CC will be dealt with in a Coalition government.

END

THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION

1900 TODAY

SHRINKING GLACIERS

(Source: Munich Society for Environmental Research)