The next 5 years in Mobile* i.e. everything
‘Business as Usual’ is dead
Scenes at papal inaugurations 2005 versus 2013Nest Smart Meter App
Image via Ericsson
Image via Ericsson
A majority of your 2018 revenues is likely to come from products and services that don’t even exist today
The End of ‘Protected Spaces’ is nearMediaTelecomBankingMoneyMedical Pharma
Mobile Broadband is a cash-cow shifter
Cloud Culture: Abundant...EverythingPhoto by incurable_hippie - http://flic.kr/p/4XtorH
Beware: “Managed Dissatisfaction” is endingReed Hastings, Netflix CEO on Arrested Development, House of Cards, and the Future of Netflix: Movies + TV: GQ via Quartz.com
“Hastings call this managed dissatisfaction. The traditional entertainment ecosystem is built on it, and it’s a totally artificial concept”
The point of managed dissatisfaction is waiting. You’re supposed to wait for your show that comes on Wednesday at 8 p.m., wait for the new season, see all the ads everywhere for the new season, talk to your friends at the office about how excited you are...”
The Internet of Everything
1 - 2 - 4 - 8 - 1 6 - 3 2 - 6 4 - 1 2 8Video Source: Cisco via Youtube
Soon: 1000s of smart little helper ‘agents’
Video Source: IBM Future Scenarios, Youtube
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Video Source: Cisco via Youtube
http://soulofstartrek.blogspot.ch/2012/01/enterprise-d-in-hd-captains-log-next.html
‘Business as Usual’ is deadETA: 2017
Used to be Is (almost) Soon for some Beyond soon but quite likely
Mobility (R)Evolutions: Huge social, economic, ethical implications
Expect a $250 Billion shift, globally
2015: ICT | Big Data | SoLoMo Intelligence everywhere
Most products become services
From ownership to access
Photo by 900hp - http://flic.kr/p/9MTJpf
Being human in a ‘totally digital’ society
Massive Human - Machine /AI Interface (R)Evolution
Deep, real-time, contextual data ☯ Fast & ubiquitous connectivity ☯ Location-aware services ☯ Powerful yet cheap mobile devices ☯ Cloud computing culture ☯ Video is the new text ☯ Social-everything ☯ Ultra-smart electronic agents ☯ The Internet of Things / M2M
=
Mobile Devices are our external brains
Total Convergence
Online
Offline
Human
Machine
ThingsEventsInformationData
Machine / Robot / AI Jobs versus Human Jobs
0
23
45
68
90
Today 2015 2020 2040
Machines, Software Agents, AI, Robots Trad. HumanONLY Human * supported by Machines
Source: Gerd Leonhard Projection
Traditional human labor will shift to machines, dramatic rise of highly ie only-human work
Paradigm-shifts on an unprecedented scale
Most of us already are or will become Knowledge | Creative | Connective-Workers
...using real-time information and intelligence supplied by an exponentially growing digital network that will leverage the IoT / IoE and Smart Machines
Humarithms: emotional, fluid, organic ≠ Algorithms
Next: fabricated realities...?Realness will prevail
Brands: make sense not noise:)
Image source: http://pinterest.com/cibbva/
Image source http://itvtu.blogspot.ch/2012_08_01_archive.html
Locked LooseBusiness Models: the direction is clear!
Liquid
Flexible. Resilient. Decentralized
Data is the new Oil (again:::)
If Data is the new Oil let’s hope we will do things differently, this time
The 3 spheres of data: shift towards anticipation
Volunteered Observed Inferred
Personal Data. Granular Permissions. Timely Knowledge. Precise Location Awareness. Highly
Contextual. Totally Realtime = Predictive Powers.
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The Future: Contextual Search (contextual everything:)
We are being searched...sought-
out...found
Most technologies that we used to direct will start
conducting themselves
Searching for something
Informationseeking us
i.e. we are ‘being searched’
Everything becomes:DynamicReal-time
SocialMobileLocalFluid
Predictive
In order for any of this to work, we will need a
Gigantic Opt-in
http://www.brandnewmedia.co.uk/2012/02/29/the-joy-of-not-being-sold-anything/
We need to consider the social implications of IoT and IoE, Big Data, M2M, AI, Prediction technologies
Let’s not kill the golden goose
Photo by the justified sinner - http://flic.kr/p/djnXUR
Do we really need more‘intelligentmarketing’
just to create the next
Generation of Human
ConsumptionMachines...?
Attention Economy ☯ Intention Economy
Via Wikipedia: “Doc Searls coined the term in the Linux Journal: "The Intention Economy grows around buyers, not sellers. It leverages the simple fact that buyers are the first source of money, and that they come ready-made. You don't need advertising to make them" Despite the advancement internet businesses are still seller oriented.
Searls gives an example of intention economy scenario:
"A car rental customer should be able to say to the car rental market, 'I'll be skiing in Park City from March 20-25. I want to rent a 4-wheel drive SUV. I belong to Avis Wizard, Budget FastBreak and Hertz 1 Club. I don't want to pay up front for gas or
get any insurance. What can any of you companies do for me?' — and have the sellers compete for the buyer's business."
Yet we must retain places like this
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And we will certainly need seriously reliable
Ways to Opt-Out
“We’re at the level of infants in moral responsibility - but with the technological capability of adults”
Nick Bostrom (Oxford University)BBC News - How are humans going to become extinct?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22002530
Faustian Bargains everywhere?
Photo by Zanthia - http://flic.kr/p/bpXtEx
A love-hate relationship between us and the users of our data?
5 Billion ‘Consumers’ will push back
From mousetraps to magnets
Summary & Key Take-Aways
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