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The Future of the International System
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Trends and Transformations?1. Unipolarity: Can it Last?2. New Cold War3. Multipolarity4. Joint Leadership5. Globalization: Interdependence6. Rapid Change and Instability7. Decline of Nation-State Power8. Challenging States9. Wild Cards
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1. Unipolarity
• Can it Last?• It never has before
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US Wealth
See When Will China Become a Major Player in Solar? Dave Cavanaugh — September 28, 2010 http://www.pikeresearch.com/blog/articles/when-will-china-become-a-major-player-in-solar
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Defense Spending by Nation
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Global Military Spending
SIPRI data http://www.sipri.org/research/armaments/milex/factsheet2010
•
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Can Unipolarity Last?
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China’s Growing Wealth
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Mark Selden, Nation, Region and the Global in East Asia: Conflict and Cooperation, The Asia-Pacific Journal: Japan Focus, http://japanfocus.org/-Mark-Selden/3422
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2. New Cold War
• One nation catches up to the US• Rising Challenger• Declining hegemon
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US vs. ChinaPresident Obama and President Hu (2010)
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Great Power Challenges• Rival Power• Ideology– One-Party State vs. Liberal Democracy
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3. Multipolarity
• Many nations catch up to the US• The US falls back to the pack
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A Multipolar System
USARussia Japan
EU Brazil
China India
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Or Another Bipolar System
US India Russia China
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4. Joint Leadership G-20
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5. Globalization: Interdependence: conflict won’t become war
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Welcome to China
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Welcome to the US
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Welcome to New York
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6. Rapid Change and Instability
• The Process of democratization• Revolution– Tahrir Square, Cairo 2011
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7. Decline of Nation-State Power
The Nation-State System evolves– Governments weaken
a)Financial Flows that governments can’t controlb)Organizations that governments can’t control or defend themselves against
i. Governments have lost the monopoly on violence , ideas, and communications
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A. Financial Flows that governments can’t control
Developing Asia Countries Net Private Capital Flows
(from Commonwealth Treasury, Australia, Dr Ken Henry, Restoring Growth to the East Asian Region, 2002, http://www.treasury.gov.au/documents/265/HTML/docshell.asp?URL=default.asp
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US GDP Growth
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B. Organizations: AQAM Attacks 2001-2011
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Transnational Organized Crime:Mexico vs. Drug Cartels
source:http://www.utexas.edu/international/ioc/safety_updates.html
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8. Challenging States• Iranian power
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North Korean Ballistic Missile Ranges
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9. Wild Cards• Climate Change• Energy• Food• Population• Over-urbanization• Migration• Technology: – Internet– Drones– Autonomous robots that enslave humans…