The Future of the International System

Trends and Transformations?1. Unipolarity: Can it Last?2. New Cold War3. Multipolarity4. Joint Leadership5. Globalization: Interdependence6. Rapid Change and Instability7. Decline of Nation-State Power8. Challenging States9. Wild Cards

1. Unipolarity

• Can it Last?• It never has before

US Wealth

See When Will China Become a Major Player in Solar? Dave Cavanaugh — September 28, 2010 http://www.pikeresearch.com/blog/articles/when-will-china-become-a-major-player-in-solar

Defense Spending by Nation

Global Military Spending

SIPRI data http://www.sipri.org/research/armaments/milex/factsheet2010

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Can Unipolarity Last?

China’s Growing Wealth

Mark Selden, Nation, Region and the Global in East Asia: Conflict and Cooperation, The Asia-Pacific Journal: Japan Focus, http://japanfocus.org/-Mark-Selden/3422

2. New Cold War

• One nation catches up to the US• Rising Challenger• Declining hegemon

US vs. ChinaPresident Obama and President Hu (2010)

Great Power Challenges• Rival Power• Ideology– One-Party State vs. Liberal Democracy

3. Multipolarity

• Many nations catch up to the US• The US falls back to the pack

A Multipolar System

USARussia Japan

EU Brazil

China India

Or Another Bipolar System

US India Russia China

4. Joint Leadership G-20

5. Globalization: Interdependence: conflict won’t become war

Welcome to China

Welcome to the US

Welcome to New York

6. Rapid Change and Instability

• The Process of democratization• Revolution– Tahrir Square, Cairo 2011

7. Decline of Nation-State Power

The Nation-State System evolves– Governments weaken

a)Financial Flows that governments can’t controlb)Organizations that governments can’t control or defend themselves against

i. Governments have lost the monopoly on violence , ideas, and communications

A. Financial Flows that governments can’t control

Developing Asia Countries Net Private Capital Flows

(from Commonwealth Treasury, Australia, Dr Ken Henry, Restoring Growth to the East Asian Region, 2002, http://www.treasury.gov.au/documents/265/HTML/docshell.asp?URL=default.asp

US GDP Growth

B. Organizations: AQAM Attacks 2001-2011

Transnational Organized Crime:Mexico vs. Drug Cartels

source:http://www.utexas.edu/international/ioc/safety_updates.html

8. Challenging States• Iranian power

North Korean Ballistic Missile Ranges

9. Wild Cards• Climate Change• Energy• Food• Population• Over-urbanization• Migration• Technology: – Internet– Drones– Autonomous robots that enslave humans…