The Future of Work
Globalization and the war for talent - how to attract, retain and motivate the workforce we need?
The Knowledge Economy - what skills will we need and where will they come from?
Demographic changes - where will we find our workforce & how will it be different from now?
Technology - how will it affect how and where we work?
The State of Play…
Europe – new member impact
North America draws breath
Japan zero’s-in elsewhere
China wonders why everyone plays a ‘short’ game
Asia gets drawn like a magnet
Australia/NZ region observes with interest
Macroeconomic Trends
Worldwide and regional economic growth will continue to recover but slowly from 2001 levels– Growth will take until 2006 to reach traditional levels
– There will be no double-dip recession
World stock markets will continue to rise slowly from the depths of fall 2002 but with heavy trading and spikes up and down
Source: IDC, US OF Commerce
Macroeconomic Trends
Profit growth will continue to be mixed by industry and country though generally picking up in the United States and Japan– Profit reporting from multinationals will overstate real
profit growth because of the falling dollar
In an age of IT complexity, growth will occur in markets that support simplification of technical environment
Hiring will remain slow, but positive into Q3 2005, though certain skills are in very high demand
Source: IDC, US OF Commerce
Source: UN Population Division, 2000 Revision
Where are the people?Countries with >50m in 2004
Source: World Bank (2001)
‘01 ‘10
312 328
522 586
729
1132 13581374 1553
1299 1382
158 161
598 667
718
Population Change to 2010 - millions
Source: US Census Bureau, population growth by age group and sex
2050
2000
China Mexico Spain Italy
2050
2000
USAJapan FranceIndia
Populations Ages all over the World
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
Yr 2000 Yr 2020 Yr 2050
Years (Projections)
Ave
rag
e A
ge
Australia China Greece Italy Japan UK US
Average population age –international comparisons
87111
128143
55 62
506
683
10514177
105
109128
Dev Asia
2000 2010Source: World Bank (2001)
The 50+ are concentrated in Asia 2000 and 2010 (millions)
Global Unemployment - overview
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1993 1998 2000 2001 2002 2003
Total
Male
Female
Youth
Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, 2003
Unemployment rates by region in 2003
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
World Industrialisedeconomies
Transitioneconomies
East Asia South-EastAsia
South Asia LatinAmerica and
theCarribbean
Middle Eastand North
Africa
Sub-SaharanAfrica
Total Female Youth
Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, 2003
Source: UN Population Forecast, 2001 revision
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
2000 2010 2020
Urban
Rural
Millions
Only Urban Population will Grow
Is becoming a key product-development center for General Electric, Intel, Philips, Microsoft, and other electronics giants. Strengths are hardware design and embedded software. Call centers for Japan and South Korea are growing in coastal cities.
CHINA
Work is migrating from Industrialised Countries to all Continents…
Source: Business Week, 3 Feb 03 Cover Story
More than 8,000 foreign companies source work in nine different IT parks with fiber-optic links. Strengths include huge supply of English-speaking, college-educated accountants, software writers, architects, telemarketers, and graphic artists.
PHILIPPINES
Becoming a favorite IT and engineering outsourcing haven for U.S. companies that want to keep work close to home. As car and electronics companies move manufacturing over the border, they are boosting demand for engineers.
MEXICO
Cheap telecom costs and educated workforce make San José a thriving spot for call centers targeting Spanish-speaking consumers inthe U.S. and Europe.
COSTA RICAWell-educated speakers ofFrench, English, and Germanfrom all over Africa staff growing call centers catering mainly to European companies.Deregulation of telecom could speed development. Other call centers are opening up inMauritius.
SOUTH AFRICA
Indian and American IT service providers are opening offices in Hungary, Poland, and the Czech Republic to tap abundant German and English-speaking workforce for European clients. Romania and Bulgaria are growing as IT workshops for German multinationals.
EASTERN EUROPE
Some 100 local software service exporters employ up to 10,000 engineers specializing in complex projects. Boeing, Nortel, Motorola, and Intel have small R&D centers. Still has an enormous untapped pool of master’s and doctorates in sciences, IT, and math.
RUSSIA
IT services, chip design, call centers, and business back-office work already generate $10 billion in exports and could hit $57 billion by 2008. Indian providers like Tata, Infosys, and Wipro already are global leaders, and U.S. IT service firms are piling in.
INDIA
West GermanyJapanUnited StatesFranceUKEast GermanyItalySpainKoreaCzech RepublicIndiaChina
2001
24.022.019.916.315.815.414.610.8 8.1 3.3 0.8 0.5
200429.119.021.620.119.518.817.213.8 9.9 5.2 1.0 0.6
Source: Oxford Economic Forecasting
Hourly Labour Costs in Manufacturing
OK let’s get to the bottom of the debate(on off-shoring)… The Example of America…
Off-shoring is often confused with domestic outsourcing
In 2003/4 US companies invested 2.5 trillion in the US economy and only 280 billion abroad
The changing of sourcing channels has been going on for years as part of the normal maturation process of industry
Most US investments abroad are about “proximity economics”
US manufacturing is the most productive in the world, having transformed from vertically integrated production structures to highly fragmented ones
OK let’s get to the bottom of the debate(on off-shoring)… The Example of America…
Productivity increases are responsible for job losses – 25 years ago GM needed 454,000 workers to build 5 million cars and trucks – today it takes 118,000
Worldwide sourcing accounts for only a small part of job losses – the bulk of “lost” jobs have gone to a country called “PRODUCTIVITY”
Since 1995 the US has lost 11% of its manufacturing jobs … and China 15%
And for service jobs – in 70% of cases sourcing is not a factor due to the face-to-face contact or specialization of the work
Growth in demand for scientists, engineers, technicians, computer specialists, biochemists, biologists, call centre operators etc.
Two scenarios: Technology replacing humans, even in labour intensive
industries like the service sector Technology creating new types of occupations or
transforming existing - presence managers, swarm spotters and creators, knowledge posters and linkers, workplace hosts
Occupations
Skills
Managing information work in different domains
Managing just-in-time social interactions
Ability to catalyze swarms/smart mobs
Making public spaces personal and vice versa
Communicating presence in different settings and media
Managing attention … your own and others
Impact of Technology on Occupations & Skills
Boundaries are blurring
freedom
variety of work
flexibility of hours
learning/experience
temporary permanent
security
career development
social interaction
continuity of employment
career path
freedom
variety of work
flexibility of hours
learning/experience
temporary permanent
Security
career development
social interaction
continuity of employment
career path
Flexible workforces are not a luxury, they are mandatory
Science And Engineering Ph.D. DegreesBy 2010, if current trends continue, over 90% of all physical scientists and
engineers in the world will be Asians working in Asia
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 20000
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
Asians in U.S. Institutions
U.S. citizens inU.S. Institutions
Asians in AsianInstitutions
All nationalities inU.S. Institutions
New regulations will have a major impact on« re-shaping » industries and the labour market
International Trade negotiations will open and close entire domains of global exchanges e.g. in agriculture and services
Domestic deregulations will generally expose yet protected workers e.g. privatization, opening sectors to competition
Regional and national subsidies will distort geographic allocation of resources
Terrorism, Epidemic fears, immigration issues will translate into regulations and disturb movement of people
Examples:
New regulations will have a major impact on« re-shaping » industries and the labour market
Privacy laws will hinder flows of information and capabilities to offshore activities
Social and labour laws will protect some minorities,could harm others
Corporate and individual fiscal policies, especially linked to budget issues related to ageing and health costs, will distort competition across markets
Sustainable development will lead to new regulations, forcing some industries to move geographies
Examples: