2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
GDP (Real growth) 1.5-2.5 2.1-3.1 2.1-3.1 2.2-3.2 2.2-3.2 2.3-3.3
Inflation 3.4 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
Exchange rate 20.0 20.1 20.2 20.4 20.5 20.7
Interest rate (real) 5.0 4.7 3.8 3.3 3.1 3.1
2
Source: SHCP, Criterios Generales de Política Económica 2019.
The Goal: To make growth more durable and inclusive
The Strategy:
GDP ForecastsReal growth %
2018 2019
Blue Chip 2.2 2.2
IMF 2.2 2.5
World Bank 2.3 2.5
OECD 2.5 2.8
Banco de Mexico 2.0-2.6 1.8-2.8
To fight corruption
To promote efficiency and transparency
in public spending
25 Strategic Projects to promote a more
regionally balanced growth
3
23. Programme for the
development of the Istmo of
Tehuantepec
16. Free Zone of the Northern Border
20. Mayan
Train Project
21. Programme for
building rural roads (Oaxaca and Guerrero)
24. Rehabilitation of Fertilizers Plants(Guerrero, Oaxaca, Puebla, Tlaxcala and Veracruz)
1. Youth bulding the future
2. Establishment of 100 public
universities
3. Scholarships (high school level)
4. Pension Program for the Elderly
5. Disability pension
6. Programme for producers of
basic grains (Canasta
Alimentaria)
7. Health care
8. Guarantee supply of medicines in
public health institutions
9. Reconstruction 19S
10. Microcredit
11. NAIM
12. Internet for all
13. Development of the petroleum
and gas industry
14. Programme for the modernization
of refineries
15. Increase electricity generation
17. Plant one million hectares of fruit
trees, timber and basic grais(Campeche, Chiapas, Tabasco and Veracruz)
18. Farm Credit Programme
22. Programme for the
development of slum
areas (Mexico City)
19. New Refinery
To activate the economy of Mexico's
southern states
25. Mining Fund
Priority
programmes
for the SE
12. Internet for all
7. Helath care
8. Guarantee supply of medicines
in public health institutions
2. Establishment of 100 public
universities
20. Mayan Train
Project
TOP 10Mexico’s Export Markets (2017)
1. US 79.8%
2. Canada 2.8%
3. Germany 1.7%
4. China 1.6%
5. Spain 1.0%
6. Japan 1.0%
7. Brazil 0.9%
8. India 0.9%
9. South Korea 0.8%
4
•
•
•
5
1
2
3
Our goal is to strengthen
Mexico’s openness by…
Expanding the benefits of
trade whithin the economy
and fueling the emergence of
new industries
Increasing Mexico’s export
and supply markets
Trigger innovation through
trade diversification
IMF
WTO
UNCTAD
JAPAN
EFTA
1.3 BD
1.1 BD
NAFTA
COLOMBIA
URUGUAY
ISRAELEUROPEAN
UNION
349
51
7. BD
9.1
BD 102
0.1
1.4
BD
69
608
2.7
BD
5.3
BD
8
45
317
4.9
BD
16.5
BD
53
282
CHILE
11059
247
PERU
4.236
195
CENTRAL
AMERICA2.160
186PANAMA
5519
5
20.1
BD
13 FTAs with 50 countries, which account for two-thirds of the world’s GDP and a billion consumers
GDP (billion dollars)
IMPORTS(billion dollars)
FDI (billion dollars)
IMF 2016. WTO 2016. UNCTAD 2016 FDI outward stock
CP TRANS-PACIFIC
PARTNERSHIP
AUSTRALIA
402
1.3 T196 NEW
ZEALAND
17
18236
10
201174
VIETNAM
MALAYSIA
127
297168
7
North America’s economic success depends on a strong regional trade partnership
490
Million
$23
Trillion
Population GDP Trade
$1
Trillion
Source: World Bank (published 2018) and import data from Statistics Canada, BANXICO and US Census Bureau (2017). 9
9.8
5.4
1.3
12.5
7.5
8.6
9.4
5.8
18.5
28.3
59.1
107.8
4.5
10.6
21.3
7.6
10.3
10.9
11.0
23.7
20.8
16.8
41.9
31.7
US Imports from Mexico US Exports to Mexico
Billion dollars
Mexico Canada
40%25%
When Mexico exports, the US exports
Value chains are
globally competitive
U.S. value added in final exports of selected countries to the U.S.
Source: NBER, Global Value database in Koopman, Powers, Wang, Wei (September 2010, revised March 2011)
Computer & electronic products
Electrical equipment
Transportation equipment
Machinery
Chemicals
Primary metal manufacturing
2017 US-Mexico Trade by Sector
Refined oil products
Fabricated metal products
Processed foods
Plastics
Agricultural products
Oil & gas
10
Provides certainty Ensures duty free market access
Preserves the integration of North America
Regional competitiveness
Preferential access
Regulatory harmonization
Investment
Temporary entry
Cooperation & Development
Obstacles for free trade
Inclusive & Responsible
Trade
SMEs
Gender
LaborAnti-
corruption
Environment
Opportunities of the 21st century
economy
Energy integration
Intellectual property
Digital trade
Certainty in trade and
investments
SOEs
Dispute settlement
mechanisms
Competition
Government procurement
11
1. Initial Provisions and General Definitions
12. Sectoral Annexes 23. Labor
2. National Treatment and Market Access for Goods
13. Government Procurement 24. Environment
3. Agriculture 14. Investment 25. Small and Medium-sized Enterprises
4. Rules of Origin 15. Cross-Border Trade in Services
26. Competitiveness
5. Origin Procedures 16. Temporary Entry 27. Anticorruption
6. Textiles and Apparel 17. Financial Services 28. Good Regulatory Practices
7. Customs and Trade Facilitation
18. Telecommunications 29. Publication and Administration
8. Energy 19. Digital Trade 30. Administrative and Institutional Provisions
9. Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures
20. Intellectual Property 31. Dispute Settlement
10. Trade Remedies 21. Competition Policy 32. Exceptions and General Provisions
11. Technical Barriers to Trade 22. State-Owned Enterprises 33. Macroeconomic Policies
New
Chapters
Modernized
Chapters
34. Final Provisions12