2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

GDP (Real growth) 1.5-2.5 2.1-3.1 2.1-3.1 2.2-3.2 2.2-3.2 2.3-3.3

Inflation 3.4 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0

Exchange rate 20.0 20.1 20.2 20.4 20.5 20.7

Interest rate (real) 5.0 4.7 3.8 3.3 3.1 3.1

2

Source: SHCP, Criterios Generales de Política Económica 2019.

The Goal: To make growth more durable and inclusive

The Strategy:

GDP ForecastsReal growth %

2018 2019

Blue Chip 2.2 2.2

IMF 2.2 2.5

World Bank 2.3 2.5

OECD 2.5 2.8

Banco de Mexico 2.0-2.6 1.8-2.8

To fight corruption

To promote efficiency and transparency

in public spending

25 Strategic Projects to promote a more

regionally balanced growth

3

23. Programme for the

development of the Istmo of

Tehuantepec

16. Free Zone of the Northern Border

20. Mayan

Train Project

21. Programme for

building rural roads (Oaxaca and Guerrero)

24. Rehabilitation of Fertilizers Plants(Guerrero, Oaxaca, Puebla, Tlaxcala and Veracruz)

1. Youth bulding the future

2. Establishment of 100 public

universities

3. Scholarships (high school level)

4. Pension Program for the Elderly

5. Disability pension

6. Programme for producers of

basic grains (Canasta

Alimentaria)

7. Health care

8. Guarantee supply of medicines in

public health institutions

9. Reconstruction 19S

10. Microcredit

11. NAIM

12. Internet for all

13. Development of the petroleum

and gas industry

14. Programme for the modernization

of refineries

15. Increase electricity generation

17. Plant one million hectares of fruit

trees, timber and basic grais(Campeche, Chiapas, Tabasco and Veracruz)

18. Farm Credit Programme

22. Programme for the

development of slum

areas (Mexico City)

19. New Refinery

To activate the economy of Mexico's

southern states

25. Mining Fund

Priority

programmes

for the SE

12. Internet for all

7. Helath care

8. Guarantee supply of medicines

in public health institutions

2. Establishment of 100 public

universities

20. Mayan Train

Project

TOP 10Mexico’s Export Markets (2017)

1. US 79.8%

2. Canada 2.8%

3. Germany 1.7%

4. China 1.6%

5. Spain 1.0%

6. Japan 1.0%

7. Brazil 0.9%

8. India 0.9%

9. South Korea 0.8%

4

•

•

•

5

1

2

3

Our goal is to strengthen

Mexico’s openness by…

Expanding the benefits of

trade whithin the economy

and fueling the emergence of

new industries

Increasing Mexico’s export

and supply markets

Trigger innovation through

trade diversification

6

IMF

WTO

UNCTAD

JAPAN

EFTA

1.3 BD

1.1 BD

NAFTA

COLOMBIA

URUGUAY

ISRAELEUROPEAN

UNION

349

51

7. BD

9.1

BD 102

0.1

1.4

BD

69

608

2.7

BD

5.3

BD

8

45

317

4.9

BD

16.5

BD

53

282

CHILE

11059

247

PERU

4.236

195

CENTRAL

AMERICA2.160

186PANAMA

5519

5

20.1

BD

13 FTAs with 50 countries, which account for two-thirds of the world’s GDP and a billion consumers

GDP (billion dollars)

IMPORTS(billion dollars)

FDI (billion dollars)

IMF 2016. WTO 2016. UNCTAD 2016 FDI outward stock

CP TRANS-PACIFIC

PARTNERSHIP

AUSTRALIA

402

1.3 T196 NEW

ZEALAND

17

18236

10

201174

VIETNAM

MALAYSIA

127

297168

7

8

North America’s economic success depends on a strong regional trade partnership

490

Million

$23

Trillion

Population GDP Trade

$1

Trillion

Source: World Bank (published 2018) and import data from Statistics Canada, BANXICO and US Census Bureau (2017). 9

9.8

5.4

1.3

12.5

7.5

8.6

9.4

5.8

18.5

28.3

59.1

107.8

4.5

10.6

21.3

7.6

10.3

10.9

11.0

23.7

20.8

16.8

41.9

31.7

US Imports from Mexico US Exports to Mexico

Billion dollars

Mexico Canada

40%25%

When Mexico exports, the US exports

Value chains are

globally competitive

U.S. value added in final exports of selected countries to the U.S.

Source: NBER, Global Value database in Koopman, Powers, Wang, Wei (September 2010, revised March 2011)

Computer & electronic products

Electrical equipment

Transportation equipment

Machinery

Chemicals

Primary metal manufacturing

2017 US-Mexico Trade by Sector

Refined oil products

Fabricated metal products

Processed foods

Plastics

Agricultural products

Oil & gas

10

Provides certainty Ensures duty free market access

Preserves the integration of North America

Regional competitiveness

Preferential access

Regulatory harmonization

Investment

Temporary entry

Cooperation & Development

Obstacles for free trade

Inclusive & Responsible

Trade

SMEs

Gender

LaborAnti-

corruption

Environment

Opportunities of the 21st century

economy

Energy integration

Intellectual property

Digital trade

Certainty in trade and

investments

SOEs

Dispute settlement

mechanisms

Competition

Government procurement

11

1. Initial Provisions and General Definitions

12. Sectoral Annexes 23. Labor

2. National Treatment and Market Access for Goods

13. Government Procurement 24. Environment

3. Agriculture 14. Investment 25. Small and Medium-sized Enterprises

4. Rules of Origin 15. Cross-Border Trade in Services

26. Competitiveness

5. Origin Procedures 16. Temporary Entry 27. Anticorruption

6. Textiles and Apparel 17. Financial Services 28. Good Regulatory Practices

7. Customs and Trade Facilitation

18. Telecommunications 29. Publication and Administration

8. Energy 19. Digital Trade 30. Administrative and Institutional Provisions

9. Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures

20. Intellectual Property 31. Dispute Settlement

10. Trade Remedies 21. Competition Policy 32. Exceptions and General Provisions

11. Technical Barriers to Trade 22. State-Owned Enterprises 33. Macroeconomic Policies

New

Chapters

Modernized

Chapters

34. Final Provisions12

13