THE GRANITE STATE POLL
November 6, 2016 CLINTON LEADS TRUMP IN FINAL NH POLL, SENATE RACE TIGHT By: Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D. [email protected] Zachary S. Azem, M.A. 603‐862‐2226 UNH Survey Center www.unh.edu/survey‐center DURHAM, NH – Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump in the race for New Hampshire’s four electoral votes in the final Granite State Poll. Maggie Hassan has a small lead over incumbent Senator Kelly Ayotte, although her lead is within the poll’s margin of error. Colin Van Ostern leads Chris Sununu in the race for Governor although a third of the electorate has not definitely decided whom they will vote for.
These findings are based on the latest Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Seven hundred and seven (707) randomly selected New Hampshire likely voters were interviewed by landline and cellular telephone between November 3 and November 6, 2016. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/‐ 3.7 percent.
2016 U.S. Presidential Election
Nearly all New Hampshire voters have decided whom they will vote for in the presidential election on Tuesday. 85% of likely voters say they have definitely decided whom to support, 7% are leaning towards someone, and 8% are still trying to decide. Nearly all Democrats (91%) and Republicans (86%) say they have definitely decided whom they will vote for while only 68% of Independents have definitely made up their mind.
We ask that this copyrighted information be referred to as the Granite State Poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.
7% 10%16% 18% 36%
36%40%
60%67%
71%78% 79% 78% 79% 82% 82% 85% 84% 85%81%
73%
62% 62%
43%
33% 32%
24%19%
15% 13% 12% 14% 14% 11% 12%8% 8% 8%
0%
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Feb.'15
May.'15
July'15
Sept.'15
Jan.'16
Feb'16
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July'16
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Oct.17'16
Oct26‐29
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Oct29‐
Nov 1
Oct30‐
Nov 2
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Nov 3
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Nov2‐5
Nov3‐6
2016 US Presidential Election‐‐ Decided On Vote
Definitely Decided Leaning Toward Someone Still Trying To Decide
2016 Presidential Election Over the final weekend of the 2016 campaign, 48% of likely New Hampshire voters say they will vote for Hillary Clinton, 38% will vote for Donald Trump, 6% will vote for Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, 1% will vote for Green Party candidate Jill Stein, 2% will vote for another candidate, and 7% are undecided. When undecided voters are asked which way they are leaning, the results become 49% for Clinton, 38% for Trump, 6% for Johnson, 1% for Stein, 2% for someone else, and 4% undecided. When undecided voters are allocated to the candidate they are most likely to vote for, the final prediction is 51% for Clinton, 40% for Trump, 6% for Johnson, 1% for Stein and 2% for other candidates. Clinton is doing better among core Democratic voters (95%‐1%) than Trump is doing among core Republican voters (86%‐3%). Swing voters are evenly divided (35% for Trump, 35% for Clinton and 14% for Gary Johnson). Clinton leads by 25 points among women (59%‐34%) while Trump only leads men 43% to 38%. Trump continues to lead among those with a high school degree or less (52%‐36%) while Clinton has a large lead among those who have completed postgraduate work (65%‐22%). Those who have completed technical school or some college (42%‐39% Clinton) and college graduates (49%‐42% Clinton) are divided.
50% 50% 48% 47%50%
39%
45%49%
46% 46% 46% 47% 47% 47% 47% 47% 49% 51%
40% 42%39% 39%
31%
37% 36% 34%38% 40% 39% 38% 40% 39% 40% 41%
38% 40%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Vote For US President* Including Undecided but leaning voters
Clinton Trump Johnson Stein Other Undecided
90% 91% 93% 92% 93% 93% 94% 95% 95%
81% 84% 85% 83% 85% 82% 83% 85% 86%
37% 39% 38% 35%
29% 31% 31% 30%35%31% 29% 27%
33%
42% 40% 42% 42%35%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Oct 26‐29 Oct 27‐30 Oct 28‐31 Oct 29‐Nov 1Oct 30‐Nov 2Oct 31‐Nov 3 Nov 1‐4 Nov 2‐5 Nov 3‐6
Clinton/Trump Support Among Core/Swing Voters
Core DEM for Clinton Core GOP for Trump Swing for Clinton Swing for Trump
Favorability of 2016 Presidential Candidates
Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton will end the election cycle historically unpopular among New Hampshire likely voters. Two in five (40%) have a favorable opinion of Clinton, 54% have an unfavorable opinion of her, and 7% are neutral and don’t know. Clinton’s net favorability is ‐14%. Clinton is very popular among Democrats (+64%) but very unpopular among Independents (‐42%) and Republicans (‐87%).
Donald Trump is even less popular – three in ten (29%) likely New Hampshire voters have a favorable opinion of Trump, 65% have an unfavorable opinion, and 6% are neutral. Trump’s net favorability is ‐36%.Trump is only somewhat popular among Republicans (+33%), and is very unpopular among Independents (‐51%), and Democrats (‐95%).
38% 36%43%
38% 38% 37% 39% 40% 41% 41% 40% 40%
58% 58%53%
57% 56% 57% 56% 55% 55% 55% 55% 54%
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100%
Apr '16 July '16 Oct 17'16
Oct 26‐29
Oct 27‐30
Oct 28‐31
Oct 29‐Nov 1
Oct 30‐Nov 2
Oct 31‐Nov 3
Nov 1‐4 Nov 2‐5 Nov 3‐6
Favorability Ratings ‐ Hillary Clinton ‐ Likely Voters
Favorable Unfavorable
21%
32%26% 28%
31% 32% 31% 33% 31% 30% 31% 29%
75%
61%69%
64% 63% 64% 64% 62% 63% 63% 62% 65%
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Apr '16 July '16 Oct 17'16
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Nov 1‐4 Nov 2‐5 Nov 3‐6
Favorability Ratings ‐ Donald Trump ‐ Likely Voters
Favorable Unfavorable
Who Will Win Presidential Election? Three in five New Hampshire likely voters (60%) think that Hillary Clinton will win the presidential election, while just 25% think Trump will win, and 16% are unsure. While nearly all Clinton voters (92%) believe that she will win, only 62% of Trump voters think he will win. This measure of electoral races has been shown to be a more accurate predictor of the winner than “horse race” questions, but not necessarily the margin of victory.
2016 US Senate Election
The race for U.S. Senator from New Hampshire is likely one of the most expensive races in the country and most voters have decided whom they will vote for. Three in four likely voters (76%) say they have definitely decided whom they will vote for, 7% are leaning toward a candidate, and 17% are still trying to decide.
70%61% 57% 56% 57% 57% 58% 60% 58% 60%
19%24% 26% 27% 27% 27% 26% 26% 27% 25%
0%
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40%
60%
80%
100%
Oct 17 '16 Oct 26‐29 Oct 27‐30 Oct 28‐31 Oct 29‐Nov1
Oct 30‐Nov2
Oct 31‐Nov3
Nov 1‐4 Nov 2‐5 Nov 3‐6
Who Will Win Presidential Election?
Clinton Trump Other Don't Know
6%10% 8%
19% 21% 20%41%
50%59% 60% 59%
63% 65% 67%72% 74% 76%
87%81% 84%
73%68% 69%
43%
35%30% 28% 28% 26% 26% 24%
20% 18% 17%0%
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May'15
July'15
Oct'15
Feb'16
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Aug'16
Oct 17'16
Oct26‐29
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Oct28‐31
Oct29‐
Nov 1
Oct30‐
Nov 2
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Nov 3
Nov 1‐4
Nov 2‐5
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2016 US Senate Election ‐‐ Decided On Vote
Definitely Decided Leaning Toward Someone Still Trying To Decide
2016 US Senate Election – Ayotte vs. Hassan This race has been very close for more than a year and looks to remain close heading into Election Day. Currently, 48% will vote for Maggie Hassan, 43% would vote for Kelly Ayotte, 1% would vote for someone else, and 8% are undecided. After including undecided voters who have indicated the candidate to whom they are leaning toward, the percentages become 49% for Hassan, 45% for Ayotte, 1% for someone else, and 4% remain undecided. When undecided voters are allocated to the candidate they are most likely to vote for, the final prediction is 52% for Hassan, 47% for Ayotte, and 1% for other candidates. Ayotte and Hassan both have the support of 95% of their core voters while swing voters favor Ayotte 46%‐39%. Ayotte has a double digit lead among men (53%‐40%) but Hassan has a slightly larger lead among women (57%‐38%).
Who Will Win Senate Election? When asked which candidate they think will win the U.S. Senate election, 37% of likely voters think Ayotte will be re‐elected, 40% think Hassan will win, and 23% are unsure. A majority of Republicans (69%) think Ayotte will win, a majority of Democrats (64%) think Hassan will win and a 28% of Independents are unsure. 71% of Ayotte voters think that she will win and 69% of Hassan voters believe that she will win.
43% 41%43%
41% 42%
45% 44%48%
45% 45% 46% 47% 48% 48% 48% 47% 49%52%
45% 47% 45% 45% 43%
42% 42%39%
44% 45% 44% 43% 41% 42% 44% 45% 45% 47%
0%
10%
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30%
40%
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60%
US Senate ‐ Ayotte vs. Hassan* Includes Undecided But Leaning Voters
Hassan Ayotte Other Undecided
33% 32% 32% 33%
36%39% 39% 39% 40%37% 36% 36% 36%
35% 35% 36% 37% 37%
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%
Oct 26‐29 Oct 27‐30 Oct 28‐31 Oct 29‐Nov1
Oct 30‐Nov2
Oct 31‐Nov3
Nov 1‐4 Nov 2‐5 Nov 3‐6
Who Will Win Senate Election?
Hassan Ayotte Other Don't Know
NH Gubernatorial Election With high profile presidential and Senate races, the race for New Hampshire Governor has flown under the political radar. Only 63% of New Hampshire likely voters say they have definitely decided whom they will vote for, 7% are leaning towards someone, and 30% are still trying to decide. If the election was held today, 45% of New Hampshire likely voters would vote for Democrat Colin Van Ostern, 35% would vote for Republican Chris Sununu, 2% would vote for someone else, and 19% are undecided. When undecided voters are asked which way they are leaning, the percentages become 48% for Van Ostern, 37% for Sununu, 2% for someone else, and 13% remain undecided. Van Ostern is doing better amongst Core Democratic voters (92%‐1%) than Sununu is among Core Republican voters (85%‐4%) and Van Ostern has a slight edge among swing voters 34%‐30%. When undecided voters are allocated to the candidate they are most likely to vote for, the final prediction is 55% for Van Ostern, 44% for Sununu, and 2% for other candidates.
44% 42% 43% 44% 43%46% 47% 47% 47% 48%
55%
38%41% 40% 40% 40% 38% 37% 37% 38% 37%
44%
0%
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30%
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60%
Oct 17'16*
Oct 26‐29*
Oct 27‐30*
Oct 28‐31*
Oct 29‐Nov 1*
Oct 30‐Nov 2*
Oct 31‐Nov 3*
Nov 1‐4* Nov 2‐5* Nov 3‐6* Prediction
NH Governor ‐ Van Ostern vs. Sununu* Includes Undecided But Leaning Voters
Van Ostern Sununu Other Undecided
33%
50% 50% 49%54% 56%
60% 62% 61% 63%
54%
38% 39% 39%35% 35% 32% 30% 31% 30%
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Oct 17 '16 Oct 26‐29 Oct 27‐30 Oct 28‐31 Oct 29‐Nov1
Oct 30‐Nov2
Oct 31‐Nov3
Nov 1‐4 Nov 2‐5 Nov 3‐6
2016 NH Governor Election ‐‐ Decided On Vote
Definitely Decided Leaning Toward Someone Still Trying To Decide
Who Will Win NH Governor Election? When asked which candidate they think will win the Gubernatorial election, more than a third (36%) of likely voters are unsure. 35% think Sununu will win while 28% think Van Ostern will win. Seven in ten (70%) Sununu voters believe he will win compared to only 54% of Van Ostern voters predicting his victory.
21% 20% 22%22%
25%
29% 28% 28% 28%
33% 33% 32% 32% 32% 32% 34% 34%35%
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%
Oct 26‐29 Oct 27‐30 Oct 28‐31 Oct 29‐Nov 1
Oct 30‐Nov 2
Oct 31‐Nov 3
Nov 1‐4 Nov 2‐5 Nov 3‐6
Who Will Win Gubernatorial Election?
Van Ostern Sununu Other Don't Know
Granite State Poll Methodology These findings are based on the latest Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Seven hundred and seven (707) randomly selected New Hampshire likely voters were interviewed by landline and cellular telephone between November 3 and November 6, 2016. If a household included more than one adult, the adult who had the most recent birthday was selected to be interviewed. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/‐ 3.7 percent. These MSE’s have not been adjusted for design effect. The design effect for the survey is 1.1%. The random sample used in the Granite State Poll was purchased from Marketing Systems Group (MSG), Horsham, PA. MSG screens each selected telephone number to eliminate non‐working numbers, disconnected numbers, and business numbers to improve the efficiency of the sample, reducing the amount of time interviewers spend calling non‐usable numbers. The data have been weighted to adjust for numbers of adults and telephone lines within households. Additionally, data were weighted by respondent sex, age, and region of the state to targets from the most recent American Community Survey (ACS) conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau. In addition to potential sampling error, all surveys have other potential sources of non‐sampling error including question order effects, question wording effects, and non‐response. Due to rounding, percentages may not sum to 100%. The number of respondents in each demographic below may not equal the number reported in cross‐tabulation tables as some respondents choose not to answer some questions. For more information about the methodology used in the Granite State Poll, contact Dr. Andrew Smith at (603) 862‐2226 or by email at [email protected].
Granite State Poll, November 6 2016 ‐ Likely Voter Demographics
Sex N % Region N %
Male 381 49% North Country 55 8%
Female 399 51% Central/Lakes 118 17%
Connecticut Valley 112 16%
Age N % Mass Border 186 26%
18 to 34 163 24% Seacoast 113 16%
35 to 49 170 25% Manchester Area 122 17%
50 to 64 218 32%
65 and Over 132 19% Party Registration N %
Democrat 220 31%
Highest Level of Education N % Undeclared/Not Reg. 272 39%
High School or Less 103 15% Republican 212 30%
Some College 162 23%
College Graduate 261 37% Party Identification N %
Post‐Graduate 167 24% Democrat 298 43%
Independent 111 16%
Republican 277 40%
Firmness of Presidential Vote “Have you definitely decided who you will vote for in the election for President … are you leaning toward someone … or have you considered some candidates but are still trying to decide?”
Definitely Decided
Leaning Toward Someone
Still Trying To Decide (N)
Nov 3 ‐ 6 85% 7% 8% (707)
Nov 2 – 5 84% 8% 8% (659)
Nov 1 – 4 85% 7% 8% (600)
Oct 31 – Nov 3 82% 6% 12% (522)
Oct 30 – Nov 2 82% 7% 11% (473)
Oct 29 – Nov 1 79% 8% 14% (478)
Oct 28 – 31 78% 9% 14% (527)
Oct 27 ‐ 30 79% 9% 12% (477)
Oct 26 ‐ 29 78% 8% 13% (530)
Oct 17 ‘16 71% 14% 15% (764)
Aug ‘16 67% 15% 19% (432)
July ‘16 60% 16% 24% (465)
Apr ‘16 40% 28% 32% (549)
Feb ‘16 36% 31% 33% (620)
Jan ‘16 36% 21% 43% (885)
Sept ‘15 18% 21% 62% (743)
July ‘15 16% 22% 62% (650)
May ‘15 10% 18% 73% (625)
Feb. ‘15 7% 13% 81% (768)
US President “Thinking about the presidential election will you vote for Donald Trump, the Republican … Hillary Clinton, the Democrat… Gary Johnson, the Libertarian… Jill Stein of the Green Party… some other candidate …. or will you skip this election?” ROTATE CANDIDATES *Johnson and Stein included starting in July 2016 July ’15 Sept ’15 Jan. ’16 Feb ’16 Apr ’16 July ’16 Aug ’16 Oct 17 ’16 Trump 40% 42% 39% 39% 31% 37% 32% 33% Clinton 50% 50% 48% 47% 50% 37% 43% 48% Johnson 10% 12% 7% Stein 5% 4% 2% Other 2% 3% 10% 10% 15% 5% 3% 4% Undecided 7% 5% 3% 4% 4% 6% 5% 5% (N=) (619) (692) (839) (578) (533) (460) (417) (755) Oct Oct Oct Oct 29‐ Oct 30‐ Oct 31‐ Nov Nov Nov 26‐29 27‐30 28‐31 Nov 1 Nov 2 Nov 3 1‐4 2‐5 3‐6 Trump 37% 39% 38% 37% 38% 37% 39% 39% 38% Clinton 45% 45% 45% 46% 46% 45% 46% 46% 48% Johnson 6% 6% 5% 5% 4% 5% 6% 5% 5% Stein 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% Other 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% Undecided 8% 7% 8% 8% 8% 9% 7% 7% 7% (N=) (518) (463) (513) (468) (466) (515) (590) (646) (693)
US President With Leaners “Would you say you are leaning towards Donald Trump, the Republican … Hillary Clinton, the Democrat… Gary Johnson, the Libertarian… or Jill Stein of the Green Party?” ROTATE CANDIDATES Oct Oct Oct Oct 29‐ Oct 30‐ Oct 31‐ Nov Nov Nov Oct 17 26‐29 27‐30 28‐31 Nov 1 Nov 2 Nov 3 1‐4 2‐5 3‐6 Prediction Trump 34% 38% 40% 39% 38% 40% 39% 40% 41% 38% 40% Clinton 49% 46% 46% 46% 47% 47% 47% 47% 47% 49% 51% Johnson 8% 7% 6% 5% 6% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% Stein 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% Other 5% 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% Undecided 3% 5% 5% 5% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% (N=) (755) (516) (463) (513) (468) (466) (515) (588) (645) (692)
Presidential Candidate Favorability Ratings – Likely Presidential Election Voters "Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of the candidates who are running for President. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person ‐ or if you have never heard of him or her." "First, how about ... ROTATE CANDIDATES “Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton?”
Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don’t Know Net (N)Nov 3‐6 40% 6% 54% 1% ‐14% (701)Nov 2‐5 40% 4% 55% 0% ‐15% (652)Nov 1‐4 41% 4% 55% 0% ‐14% (594)Oct 31‐Nov 3 41% 4% 55% 0% ‐14% (522)Oct 30‐Nov 2 40% 5% 55% 0% ‐15% (473)Oct 29‐Nov 1 39% 5% 56% 0% ‐17% (480)Oct 28‐31 37% 5% 57% 0% ‐20% (528)Oct 27‐30 38% 6% 56% 0% ‐18% (476)Oct 26‐29 38% 5% 57% 1% ‐19% (532)Oct 17 ‘16 43% 4% 53% 0% ‐10% (767)July ‘16 36% 5% 58% 0% ‐22% (468)Apr. ‘16 38% 3% 58% 0% ‐20% (553)
“Businessman Donald Trump?”
Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don’t Know Net (N)Nov 3‐6 29% 6% 65% 0% ‐36% (703)Nov 2‐5 31% 6% 62% 0% ‐31% (655)Nov 1‐4 30% 7% 63% 0% ‐33% (598)Oct 31‐Nov 3 31% 6% 63% 0% ‐32% (523)Oct 30‐Nov 2 33% 5% 62% 0% ‐29% (474)Oct 29‐Nov 1 31% 4% 64% 1% ‐33% (480)Oct 28‐31 32% 4% 64% 1% ‐32% (529)Oct 27‐30 31% 5% 63% 1% ‐32% (477)Oct 26‐29 28% 5% 64% 2% ‐36% (533)Oct 17 ‘16 26% 4% 69% 1% ‐43% (767)July ‘16 32% 6% 61% 1% ‐29% (466)Apr. ‘16 21% 4% 75% 0% ‐54% (553)
Who Will Win Presidential Election? “Regardless of who you are voting for, which candidate do you think is most likely to win the presidential election?” Oct Oct Oct Oct 29‐ Oct 30‐ Oct 31‐ Nov Nov Nov Oct 17 26‐29 27‐30 28‐31 Nov 1 Nov 2 Nov 3 1‐4 2‐5 3‐6 Trump 19% 24% 26% 27% 27% 27% 26% 26% 27% 25% Clinton 70% 61% 57% 56% 57% 57% 58% 60% 58% 60% Johnson 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Stein 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Other 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% Undecided 11% 15% 15% 16% 15% 15% 16% 14% 15% 14% (N=) (762) (531) (477) (529) (480) (474) (522) (596) (655) (703)
Firmness of Choice For New Hampshire Senate – Likely Voters
“Have you definitely decided who you will vote for in the New Hampshire Senate election … are you leaning toward someone … or have you considered some candidates but are still trying to decide?”
Def. Decided Leaning Trying to Decide (N=) Nov 3 ‐ 6 76% 7% 17% (693)
Nov 2 – 5 74% 8% 18% (647)
Nov 1 – 4 72% 8% 20% (590)
Oct 31 – Nov 3 67% 9% 24% (520)
Oct 30 – Nov 2 65% 9% 26% (470)
Oct 29 – Nov 1 63% 11% 26% (479)
Oct 28 – 31 59% 13% 28% (529)
Oct 27 ‐ 30 60% 12% 28% (478)
Oct 26 ‐ 29 59% 11% 30% (534)
Oct 17 ‘16 50% 15% 35% (748) Aug ‘16 41% 16% 43% (422) July ‘16 20% 11% 69% (460) Apr ‘16 21% 10% 68% (538) Feb ‘16 19% 8% 73% (588) Oct ‘15 8% 8% 84% (506) July ‘15 10% 9% 81% (464) May ‘15 6% 7% 87% (518)
US Senate – Ayotte vs. Hassan – Likely Voters “Thinking about the US Senate election, will you vote for Kelly Ayotte, the Republican … Maggie Hassan, the Democrat … some other candidate… or will you skip this election?” ROTATE CANDIDATES May ‘15 July ‘15 Oct ‘15 Feb ‘16 Apr ’16 July ’16 Aug ’16 Oct 17 ’16 Ayotte 45% 47% 45% 45% 43% 42% 42% 38% Hassan 43% 41% 43% 41% 42% 45% 44% 46% Other 2% 1% 1% 4% 5% 3% 3% 3% Undecided 9% 12% 11% 10% 10% 11% 12% 13% (N=) (501) (468) (498) (597) (527) (448) (412) (725) Oct Oct Oct Oct 29‐ Oct 30‐ Oct 31‐ Nov Nov Nov 26‐29 27‐30 28‐31 Nov 1 Nov 2 Nov 3 1‐4 2‐5 3‐6 Ayotte 43% 44% 42% 41% 39% 39% 42% 43% 43% Hassan 43% 43% 44% 44% 45% 45% 46% 45% 48% Other 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% Undecided 12% 11% 12% 13% 14% 14% 11% 10% 8% (N=) (514) (461) (510) (464) (461) (511) (581) (634) (679)
US Senate – Ayotte vs. Hassan – Likely Voters – With Leaners “Would you say you are leaning towards Kelly Ayotte, the Republican … or Maggie Hassan, the Democrat?” ROTATE CANDIDATES Oct Oct Oct Oct 29‐ Oct 30‐ Oct 31‐ Nov Nov Nov Oct 17 26‐29 27‐30 28‐31 Nov 1 Nov 2 Nov 3 1‐4 2‐5 3‐6 Prediction Ayotte 39% 44% 45% 44% 43% 41% 42% 44% 45% 45% 47% Hassan 48% 45% 45% 46% 47% 48% 48% 48% 47% 49% 52% Other 4% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% Undecided 9% 8% 9% 9% 8% 9% 8% 6% 6% 4% (N=) (724) (514) (461) (509) (462) (460) (509) (581) (634) (679)
Who Will Win Senate Election? “Regardless of who you are voting for, which candidate do you think is most likely to win the US Senate election?” Oct Oct Oct Oct 29‐ Oct 30‐ Oct 31‐ Nov Nov Nov 26‐29 27‐30 28‐31 Nov 1 Nov 2 Nov 3 1‐4 2‐5 3‐6 Ayotte 37% 36% 36% 36% 35% 35% 36% 37% 37% Hassan 33% 32% 32% 33% 36% 39% 39% 39% 40% Other 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% Undecided 30% 32% 31% 30% 28% 25% 25% 24% 23% (N=) (530) (477) (528) (479) (473) (520) (593) (647) (696)
Firmness of Choice For New Hampshire Governor – Likely Voters
“Have you definitely decided who you will vote for in the New Hampshire Gubernatorial election… are you leaning toward someone … or have you considered some candidates but are still trying to decide?”
Def. Decided Leaning Trying to Decide (N=) Nov 3 ‐ 6 63% 7% 30% (695)
Nov 2 – 5 61% 8% 31% (646)
Nov 1 – 4 62% 8% 30% (587)
Oct 31 – Nov 3 60% 9% 32% (515)
Oct 30 – Nov 2 56% 9% 35% (465)
Oct 29 – Nov 1 54% 11% 35% (477)
Oct 28 – 31 49% 12% 39% (526)
Oct 27 ‐ 30 50% 12% 39% (476)
Oct 26 ‐ 29 50% 11% 38% (532)
Oct 17 ‘16 50% 15% 35% (748) Aug ‘16 41% 16% 43% (422) July ‘16 20% 11% 69% (460) Apr ‘16 21% 10% 68% (538) Feb ‘16 19% 8% 73% (588) Oct ‘15 8% 8% 84% (506) July ‘15 10% 9% 81% (464) May ‘15 6% 7% 87% (518)
NH Gubernatorial Election “Thinking about the Gubernatorial election, will you vote for Chris Sununu, the Republican … Colin Van Ostern, the Democrat … some other candidate …. or will you skip this election?” ROTATE CANDIDATES Oct Oct Oct Oct 29‐ Oct 30‐ Oct 31‐ Nov Nov Nov Oct 17 26‐29 27‐30 28‐31 Nov 1 Nov 2 Nov 3 1‐4 2‐5 3‐6 Sununu 35% 36% 36% 35% 36% 33% 33% 34% 35% 35% Van Ostern 41% 39% 38% 39% 40% 41% 43% 44% 43% 45% Other 4% 2% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 2% Undecided 21% 23% 23% 23% 22% 23% 23% 21% 21% 19% (N=) (676) (505) (454) (503) (461) (457) (507) (574) (631) (672)
NH Gubernatorial Election With Leaners “Would you say you are leaning towards Chris Sununu, the Republican … or Colin Van Ostern, the Democrat?” ROTATE CANDIDATES Oct Oct Oct Oct 29‐ Oct 30‐ Oct 31‐ Nov Nov Nov Oct 17 26‐29 27‐30 28‐31 Nov 1 Nov 2 Nov 3 1‐4 2‐5 3‐6 Prediction Sununu 38% 41% 40% 40% 40% 38% 37% 37% 38% 37% 44% Van Ostern 44% 42% 43% 44% 43% 46% 47% 47% 47% 48% 55% Other 4% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 1% 1% 2% 2% Undecided 15% 14% 14% 13% 14% 13% 14% 15% 13% 13% (N=) (673) (503) (452) (501) (460) (455) (505) (572) (628) (671)
Who Will Win Gubernatorial Election? “Regardless of who you are voting for, which candidate do you think is most likely to win the Gubernatorial election?” Oct Oct Oct Oct 29‐ Oct 30‐ Oct 31‐ Nov Nov Nov 26‐29 27‐30 28‐31 Nov 1 Nov 2 Nov 3 1‐4 2‐5 3‐6 Sununu 33% 33% 32% 32% 32% 32% 34% 34% 35% Van Ostern 21% 20% 22% 22% 25% 29% 28% 28% 28% Other 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% Undecided 45% 46% 45% 44% 42% 38% 38% 38% 36% (N=) (530) (477) (528) (479) (471) (517) (590) (646) (696)
Registered Democrat
Registered Undeclared/Not Reg.
Registered Republican
Democrat
Independent
Republican
Core DEM
Swing Voter
Core GOP
Will Definitely Vote
Will Vote Unless Emergency
Extremely Interested in Election
Very Interested
Somewhat/Not Very Interested
18 to 34
35 to 49
50 to 64
65 and older
Male
Female
Male, Married
Female, Married
Male, Unmarried
Female, Unmarried
Working Class Men
Working Class Women
College Educ Men
College Educ Women
High school or less
Technical school/Some college
College graduate
Postgraduate work
Central / Lakes
Connecticut Valley
Manchester Area
Mass Border
North Country
Seacoast
First Cong. District
Second Cong. District
8%
12%
2%
5%
12%
4%
87%
76%
94%
8%
16%
4%
6%
15%
5%
86%
68%
91%
6%
18%
3%
6%
13%
4%
88%
69%
93%
28%
7%
22%
6%
50%
87%
22%
14%
3%
18%
6%
6%
60%
80%
91%
3%
9%
6%
12%
5%
6%
6%
11%
92%
85%
88%
78%
4%
12%
7%
7%
89%
81%
6%
15%
2%
10%
8%
11%
7%
5%
87%
74%
91%
85%
3%
11%
5%
14%
8%
6%
6%
9%
89%
83%
89%
77%
9%
5%
11%
8%
5%
9%
6%
10%
87%
86%
83%
82%
5%
12%
8%
12%
2%
9%
6%
5%
8%
11%
1%
9%
88%
83%
84%
77%
97%
82%
8%
8%
7%
7%
85%
85%
212
272
220
277
111
298
240
177
290
40
667
68
191
446
132
218
170
163
367
339
136
131
227
202
236
192
127
138
167
260
162
103
113
55
186
122
112
118
358
349
(N)
707
Definitely Decided Leaning Toward Someone Still Trying To Decide
NH Likely Voters 8%7%85%
Decided on Vote For US President
Registered Democrat
Registered Undeclared/Not Reg.
Registered Republican
Democrat
Independent
Republican
Core DEM
Swing Voter
Core GOP
Definitely Decided
Leaning Towards Someone
Still Trying To Decide
Will Definitely Vote
Will Vote Unless Emergency
Extremely Interested in Election
Very Interested
Somewhat/Not Very Interested
18 to 34
35 to 49
50 to 64
65 and older
Male
Female
Male, Married
Female, Married
Male, Unmarried
Female, Unmarried
Working Class Men
Working Class Women
College Educ Men
College Educ Women
High school or less
Technical school/Some college
College graduate
Postgraduate work
Central / Lakes
Connecticut Valley
Manchester Area
Mass Border
North Country
Seacoast
First Cong. District
Second Cong. District
8%
12%
2%
2%
3%
1%
1%
1%
4%
10%
1%
7%
44%
91%
79%
32%
5%
7%
18%
4%
1%
3%
1%
1%
1%
6%
15%
1%
7%
33%
91%
79%
30%
2%
4%
19%
4%
2%
3%
1%
0%
1%
6%
12%
0%
3%
32%
94%
85%
34%
0%
67%
25%
1%
4%
3%
1%
3%
3%
0%
10%
15%
4%
7%
28%
53%
9%
26%
41%
30%
6%
4%
2%1%
15%
5%
34%
48%
17%
39%
21%
12%
3%
3%
3%
1%1%
6%
5%
5%
23%
44%
53%
47%
36%
37%
4%
9%
5%
9%
3%
1%
1%
3%
1%
0%
1%
3%
1%
6%
11%
57%
50%
49%
38%
32%
38%
40%
38%
6%
8%
1%
2%
0%
1%
2%
9%
57%
37%
33%
42%
8%
8%
5%
9%
2%
3%
1%
2%
0%
1%
1%
1%
15%
2%
6%
59%
30%
57%
41%
30%
44%
35%
42%
5%
7%
9%
10%
2%
4%
1%
0%
1%
0%
2%
1%
7%
2%
12%
64%
41%
47%
31%
28%
40%
41%
45%
9%
5%
10%
8%
2%
3%
1%
0%
1%
1%
1%
5%
3%
9%
4%
63%
47%
41%
36%
21%
41%
38%
50%
5%
12%
8%
8%
3%
9%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
1%
8%
2%
4%
4%
1%
10%
54%
57%
41%
41%
64%
39%
31%
24%
44%
44%
29%
40%
8%
7%
2%
2%
0%
1%
5%
6%
51%
45%
34%
41%
210
263
219
273
107
296
237
168
288
53
50
591
39
655
68
183
440
130
214
166
162
362
331
135
127
223
200
233
187
125
137
164
256
158
103
110
55
185
118
110
115
354
340
(N)
693
Trump Clinton Johnson Stein Other Undecided
NH Likely Voters 7%2%1%5%48%38%
Vote for US President
Registered Democrat
Registered Undeclared/Not Reg.
Registered Republican
Democrat
Independent
Republican
Core DEM
Swing Voter
Core GOP
Definitely Decided
Leaning Towards Someone
Still Trying To Decide
Will Definitely Vote
Will Vote Unless Emergency
Extremely Interested in Election
Very Interested
Somewhat/Not Very Interested
18 to 34
35 to 49
50 to 64
65 and older
Male
Female
Male, Married
Female, Married
Male, Unmarried
Female, Unmarried
Working Class Men
Working Class Women
College Educ Men
College Educ Women
High school or less
Technical school/Some college
College graduate
Postgraduate work
Central / Lakes
Connecticut Valley
Manchester Area
Mass Border
North Country
Seacoast
First Cong. District
Second Cong. District
4%
8%
0%
2%
3%
1%
1%
1%
5%
11%
1%
9%
46%
91%
81%
32%
6%
3%
12%
2%
1%
3%
1%
1%
1%
6%
19%
1%
9%
36%
92%
80%
30%
2%
2%
12%
1%
2%
3%
1%
1%
1%
6%
14%
1%
3%
35%
95%
86%
35%
1%
47%
7%
0%
4%
3%
1%
3%
6%
0%
16%
19%
4%
17%
33%
53%
13%
32%
41%
19%
4%
4%
2%1%
19%
5%
34%
50%
24%
39%
18%
6%
1%
3%
3%
1%
1%
1%
6%
7%
5%
24%
46%
54%
49%
36%
38%
2%
5%
4%
5%
3%
1%
1%
3%
1%
0%
1%
1%
3%
3%
6%
13%
57%
52%
49%
38%
33%
39%
40%
39%
3%
6%
1%
2%
0%
1%
2%
10%
59%
38%
34%
43%
5%
7%
2%
5%
2%
3%
1%
2%
0%
1%
1%
1%
2%
15%
2%
7%
60%
31%
59%
42%
31%
44%
36%
42%
2%
4%
5%
8%
2%
4%
1%
0%
1%
1%
0%
2%
1%
8%
3%
13%
65%
43%
48%
32%
29%
41%
43%
45%
4%
2%
8%
4%
2%
3%
1%
0%
1%
1%
1%
1%
6%
4%
10%
5%
65%
49%
42%
36%
22%
42%
39%
52%
12%
7%
4%
1%
5%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
1%
1%
10%
2%
5%
4%
1%
11%
55%
57%
42%
43%
65%
41%
33%
24%
44%
46%
30%
40%
5%
4%
2%
2%
1%
1%
6%
6%
52%
45%
34%
42%
210
261
219
273
107
294
237
168
286
53
50
589
39
653
68
182
440
130
214
166
160
360
331
133
127
223
200
233
187
123
137
164
256
158
102
110
55
185
118
108
115
352
340
(N)
692
Trump Clinton Johnson Stein Other Undecided
NH Likely Voters 4%2%1%6%49%38%
Vote for US President With Leaners
Registered Democrat
Registered Undeclared/Not Reg.
Registered Republican
Democrat
Independent
Republican
Core DEM
Swing Voter
Core GOP
Will Definitely Vote
Will Vote Unless Emergency
Extremely Interested in Election
Very Interested
Somewhat/Not Very Interested
Trump Voter
Clinton Voter
Johnson Voter
Stein Voter
Other/Undecided
18 to 34
35 to 49
50 to 64
65 and older
Male
Female
Male, Married
Female, Married
Male, Unmarried
Female, Unmarried
Working Class Men
Working Class Women
College Educ Men
College Educ Women
High school or less
Technical school/Some college
College graduate
Postgraduate work
Central / Lakes
Connecticut Valley
Manchester Area
Mass Border
North Country
Seacoast
First Cong. District
Second Cong. District
18%
19%
6%
1%
0%
31%
60%
89%
52%
20%
5%
19%
20%
8%
0%
0%
29%
63%
89%
51%
17%
3%
20%
18%
7%
1%
0%
25%
56%
92%
54%
24%
1%
18%
14%0%0%
70%
60%
12%
26%
19%
20%
11%
1%
0%
0%
56%
57%
62%
24%
22%
26%
29%
31%
11%
7%
20%
4%
1%
61%
69%
73%
92%
18%
6%
15%
1%
62%
19%
15%
14%
11%
0%0%57%
58%
62%
65%
23%
27%
24%
24%
15%
14%0%
0%63%
58%
22%
28%
17%
16%
15%
13%
1%
0%
0%64%
59%
62%
57%
19%
25%
23%
31%
12%
14%
22%
13%
1%
0%
69%
63%
53%
51%
19%
22%
26%
36%
17%
11%
17%
16%
1%
0%
71%
63%
55%
46%
11%
26%
27%
37%
9%
11%
10%
17%
16%
25%
1%
0%
68%
68%
58%
59%
64%
50%
23%
21%
31%
24%
20%
24%
14%
15%
0%0%62%
59%
24%
26%
212
268
220
277
110
298
240
175
289
40
664
68
190
444
42
5
41
338
265
131
217
170
163
368
336
137
131
227
200
236
190
127
138
166
260
162
103
112
55
185
122
112
117
357
346
(N)
703
Trump Clinton Johnson Other Dont Know
NH Likely Voters 14%0%0%60%25%
US President - Who Will Win?
Registered Democrat
Registered Undeclared/Not Reg.
Registered Republican
Democrat
Independent
Republican
Core DEM
Swing Voter
Core GOP
Will Definitely Vote
Will Vote Unless Emergency
Extremely Interested in Election
Very Interested
Somewhat/Not Very Interested
Trump Voter
Clinton Voter
Johnson Voter
Stein Voter
Other/Undecided
18 to 34
35 to 49
50 to 64
65 and older
Male
Female
Male, Married
Female, Married
Male, Unmarried
Female, Unmarried
Working Class Men
Working Class Women
College Educ Men
College Educ Women
High school or less
Technical school/Some college
College graduate
Postgraduate work
Central / Lakes
Connecticut Valley
Manchester Area
Mass Border
North Country
Seacoast
First Cong. District
Second Cong. District
0%
1%
0%
27%
71%
94%
9%
6%
2%
64%
22%
4%
0%
1%
0%
28%
71%
97%
11%
8%
1%
61%
20%
2%
0%
1%
0%
23%
67%
99%
11%
7%
1%
66%
25%
0%
0%
74%
65%
16%
5%
9%
30%
4%
0%
50%
66%
67%
12%
8%
4%
35%
26%
29%
4%
0%
78%
100%
81%
99%
15%
12%
3%
0%
12%
10%
11%
0%
72%
0%
0%
1%
70%
66%
66%
60%
3%
5%
5%
9%
27%
29%
29%
30%
0%
0%
68%
62%
6%
5%
25%
33%
1%
1%
69%
59%
67%
63%
7%
6%
6%
5%
23%
34%
27%
32%
1%
1%
75%
69%
57%
53%
4%
5%
11%
6%
22%
26%
31%
40%
1%
0%
84%
65%
58%
49%
3%
5%
11%
5%
13%
31%
30%
46%
0%
1%
1%
72%
78%
57%
57%
76%
64%
3%
1%
8%
5%
3%
9%
24%
21%
34%
38%
21%
27%
1%
0%
67%
63%
5%
6%
26%
31%
211
269
220
276
110
298
239
174
290
39
664
66
190
445
41
5
41
339
263
131
218
170
163
365
338
137
131
226
201
235
191
127
138
167
260
161
103
113
55
184
122
111
118
356
347
(N)
703
Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don't Know
NH Likely Voters 0%65%6%29%
Favorability - Donald Trump
Registered Democrat
Registered Undeclared/Not Reg.
Registered Republican
Democrat
Independent
Republican
Core DEM
Swing Voter
Core GOP
Will Definitely Vote
Will Vote Unless Emergency
Extremely Interested in Election
Very Interested
Somewhat/Not Very Interested
Trump Voter
Clinton Voter
Johnson Voter
Stein Voter
Other/Undecided
18 to 34
35 to 49
50 to 64
65 and older
Male
Female
Male, Married
Female, Married
Male, Unmarried
Female, Unmarried
Working Class Men
Working Class Women
College Educ Men
College Educ Women
High school or less
Technical school/Some college
College graduate
Postgraduate work
Central / Lakes
Connecticut Valley
Manchester Area
Mass Border
North Country
Seacoast
First Cong. District
Second Cong. District
1%
0%
1%
93%
57%
14%
10%
6%
6%
34%
79%
1%
2%
92%
64%
15%
3%
12%
6%
5%
22%
79%
1%
2%
95%
67%
12%
2%
9%
7%
2%
22%
81%
2%
1%
50%
54%
18%
5%
29%
40%
1%
1%
1%
65%
59%
50%
12%
7%
4%
21%
33%
45%
3%
1%
76%
73%
87%
13%
97%
15%
27%
8%
2%
8%
10%
79%
0%
1%
1%
1%
1%
47%
53%
56%
61%
3%
6%
6%
6%
49%
41%
38%
32%
1%
1%
44%
65%
6%
5%
49%
29%
1%
1%
0%
0%
45%
68%
43%
63%
7%
3%
6%
7%
46%
28%
51%
30%
1%
1%
1%
0%
40%
60%
51%
72%
5%
6%
9%
4%
55%
33%
39%
24%
1%
1%
1%
39%
56%
58%
67%
5%
6%
8%
4%
56%
38%
33%
29%
1%
1%
2%
47%
48%
58%
63%
41%
61%
6%
6%
7%
5%
4%
6%
47%
46%
34%
32%
54%
31%
1%
1%
51%
57%
6%
5%
41%
38%
211
269
218
277
109
296
240
173
288
39
662
66
188
445
41
5
41
336
264
131
218
168
163
366
336
136
131
227
199
236
189
127
138
167
258
161
103
113
54
184
122
109
118
354
347
(N)
701
Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don't Know
NH Likely Voters 1%54%6%40%
Favorability - Hillary Clinton
Registered Democrat
Registered Undeclared/Not Reg.
Registered Republican
Democrat
Independent
Republican
Core DEM
Swing Voter
Core GOP
Will Definitely Vote
Will Vote Unless Emergency
Extremely Interested in Election
Very Interested
Somewhat/Not Very Interested
18 to 34
35 to 49
50 to 64
65 and older
Male
Female
Male, Married
Female, Married
Male, Unmarried
Female, Unmarried
Working Class Men
Working Class Women
College Educ Men
College Educ Women
High school or less
Technical school/Some college
College graduate
Postgraduate work
Central / Lakes
Connecticut Valley
Manchester Area
Mass Border
North Country
Seacoast
First Cong. District
Second Cong. District
17%
21%
13%
7%
9%
6%
76%
70%
81%
18%
21%
14%
9%
13%
5%
74%
66%
82%
15%
29%
11%
6%
14%
5%
78%
57%
84%
36%
16%
19%
7%
45%
77%
44%
26%
9%
7%
8%
7%
49%
65%
83%
7%
12%
17%
29%
4%
7%
10%
10%
89%
81%
73%
61%
14%
20%
6%
9%
80%
71%
23%
32%
8%
13%
6%
10%
6%
8%
70%
57%
86%
79%
10%
14%
20%
28%
6%
8%
7%
11%
84%
78%
73%
61%
13%
12%
21%
31%
4%
9%
12%
4%
83%
80%
67%
65%
15%
25%
17%
24%
12%
14%
6%
8%
8%
6%
5%
12%
79%
67%
75%
71%
83%
74%
17%
17%
7%
8%
76%
75%
210
263
218
272
108
293
238
167
289
37
657
62
187
443
131
217
167
156
361
332
133
127
224
200
232
189
125
135
164
256
159
100
111
54
184
118
112
114
352
341
(N)
693
Definitely Decided Leaning Toward Someone Still Trying To Decide
NH Likely Voters 17%7%76%
Decided on Vote for US Senate
Registered Democrat
Registered Undeclared/Not Reg.
Registered Republican
Democrat
Independent
Republican
Core DEM
Swing Voter
Core GOP
Definitely Decided
Leaning Towards Someone
Still Trying To Decide
Will Definitely Vote
Will Vote Unless Emergency
Extremely Interested in Election
Very Interested
Somewhat/Not Very Interested
Trump Voter
Clinton Voter
Johnson Voter
Stein Voter
Other/Undecided
18 to 34
35 to 49
50 to 64
65 and older
Male
Female
Male, Married
Female, Married
Male, Unmarried
Female, Unmarried
Working Class Men
Working Class Women
College Educ Men
College Educ Women
High school or less
Technical school/Some college
College graduate
Postgraduate work
Central / Lakes
Connecticut Valley
Manchester Area
Mass Border
North Country
Seacoast
First Cong. District
Second Cong. District
6%
12%
4%
3%
1%
0%
7%
46%
89%
84%
41%
7%
6%
16%
6%
2%
2%
0%
7%
44%
88%
86%
38%
6%
4%
21%
3%
2%
2%
0%
1%
35%
94%
92%
42%
3%
42%
7%
0%
3%
1%
1%
24%
34%
54%
31%
58%
45%
16%
7%1%
31%
49%
53%
43%
19%
12%
5%
2%
0%
2%
25%
37%
55%
55%
50%
39%
27%
12%
5%
7%
8%
0%
2%
22%
100%
30%
86%
5%
44%
57%
9%
86%
3%
7%
9%
10%
1%
1%
1%
1%
56%
50%
50%
37%
40%
42%
40%
53%
7%
8%
0%
2%
55%
39%
37%
50%
11%
9%
4%
8%
0%
2%
1%
2%
55%
37%
55%
41%
34%
52%
40%
48%
4%
8%
12%
10%
1%
1%
4%
62%
44%
43%
32%
33%
47%
44%
54%
6%
6%
9%
15%
1%
1%
2%
2%
68%
45%
39%
34%
25%
48%
50%
49%
7%
2%
9%
10%
7%
7%
1%
3%
2%
1%
1%
58%
57%
38%
39%
62%
44%
35%
40%
51%
49%
30%
48%
9%
6%
2%
1%
49%
46%
40%
47%
208
258
211
273
102
288
237
160
282
107
52
517
37
642
60
181
437
40
4
41
330
256
128
215
165
150
356
324
130
121
221
199
229
188
122
128
162
255
155
96
112
52
183
111
109
114
346
333
(N)
679
Ayotte Hassan Other Undecided
NH Likely Voters 8%1%48%43%
Vote for US Senate - Ayotte vs. Hassan
Registered Democrat
Registered Undeclared/Not Reg.
Registered Republican
Democrat
Independent
Republican
Core DEM
Swing Voter
Core GOP
Definitely Decided
Leaning Towards Someone
Still Trying To Decide
Will Definitely Vote
Will Vote Unless Emergency
Extremely Interested in Election
Very Interested
Somewhat/Not Very Interested
Trump Voter
Clinton Voter
Johnson Voter
Stein Voter
Other/Undecided
18 to 34
35 to 49
50 to 64
65 and older
Male
Female
Male, Married
Female, Married
Male, Unmarried
Female, Unmarried
Working Class Men
Working Class Women
College Educ Men
College Educ Women
High school or less
Technical school/Some college
College graduate
Postgraduate work
Central / Lakes
Connecticut Valley
Manchester Area
Mass Border
North Country
Seacoast
First Cong. District
Second Cong. District
3%
7%
2%
3%
1%
0%
7%
48%
91%
87%
43%
7%
3%
11%
4%
2%
2%
0%
7%
46%
90%
89%
42%
6%
2%
13%
2%
2%
2%
0%
1%
39%
95%
95%
46%
3%
24%
1%
0%
3%
1%
1%
35%
34%
54%
38%
63%
45%
10%
4%1%
34%
50%
56%
45%
10%
6%
3%
2%
0%
2%
32%
40%
55%
57%
53%
40%
20%
3%
3%
3%
8%
0%
2%
28%
100%
34%
88%
5%
44%
63%
9%
89%
2%
4%
5%
4%
1%
1%
1%
1%
57%
50%
51%
41%
40%
45%
43%
54%
4%
4%
0%
2%
57%
40%
38%
53%
6%
4%
2%
5%
0%
2%
1%
2%
59%
39%
57%
42%
35%
55%
41%
51%
2%
4%
8%
6%
1%
1%
4%
63%
45%
46%
34%
34%
50%
46%
56%
2%
3%
3%
13%
1%
1%
2%
2%
70%
45%
43%
36%
27%
50%
52%
49%
4%
2%
6%
8%
3%
2%
1%
3%
2%
1%
1%
59%
57%
39%
41%
62%
48%
36%
40%
52%
50%
34%
49%
5%
4%
2%
1%
52%
47%
42%
49%
208
258
211
273
102
288
237
160
282
107
52
517
37
642
60
181
437
40
4
41
330
256
128
215
165
150
356
324
130
121
221
199
229
188
122
128
162
255
155
96
112
52
183
111
109
114
346
333
(N)
679
Ayotte Hassan Other Undecided
NH Likely Voters 4%1%49%45%
Vote for US Senate - Ayotte vs. Hassan With Leaners
Registered Democrat
Registered Undeclared/Not Reg.
Registered Republican
Democrat
Independent
Republican
Core DEM
Swing Voter
Core GOP
Ayotte Voter
Hassan Voter
Other/Undecided
Will Definitely Vote
Will Vote Unless Emergency
Extremely Interested in Election
Very Interested
Somewhat/Not Very Interested
18 to 34
35 to 49
50 to 64
65 and older
Male
Female
Male, Married
Female, Married
Male, Unmarried
Female, Unmarried
Working Class Men
Working Class Women
College Educ Men
College Educ Women
High school or less
Technical school/Some college
College graduate
Postgraduate work
Central / Lakes
Connecticut Valley
Manchester Area
Mass Border
North Country
Seacoast
First Cong. District
Second Cong. District
17%
25%
24%
1%
0%
16%
39%
63%
67%
35%
12%
16%
28%
24%1%
15%
38%
64%
69%
34%
11%
16%
31%
23%
1%
1%
13%
29%
67%
71%
39%
9%
55%
22%
16%
4%
0%
10%
69%
13%
31%
8%
71%
46%
21%0%
17%
41%
37%
37%
22%
31%
19%
2%
0%
41%
29%
44%
36%
40%
37%
22%
27%
19%
19%
0%
1%
40%
36%
43%
40%
38%
37%
37%
39%
23%
22%
1%
0%
46%
32%
30%
46%
22%
20%
23%
22%
1%
1%
46%
33%
48%
31%
31%
46%
30%
47%
22%
23%
25%
19%
0%
1%
1%
53%
36%
36%
27%
25%
41%
37%
54%
26%
20%
22%
22%
1%
1%
52%
41%
30%
34%
21%
39%
48%
43%
26%
22%
18%
29%
26%
17%
1%
1%
43%
44%
36%
34%
45%
40%
31%
34%
45%
37%
29%
42%
24%
21%
0%
0%
41%
38%
35%
41%
211
264
218
276
108
293
240
169
287
39
332
307
38
657
62
190
442
130
216
170
159
365
331
134
128
226
199
234
188
126
136
163
259
160
101
112
54
185
118
112
116
354
341
(N)
696
Ayotte Hassan Other Dont Know
NH Likely Voters 23%0%40%37%
US Senate - Who Will Win?
Registered Democrat
Registered Undeclared/Not Reg.
Registered Republican
Democrat
Independent
Republican
Core DEM
Swing Voter
Core GOP
Will Definitely Vote
Will Vote Unless Emergency
Extremely Interested in Election
Very Interested
Somewhat/Not Very Interested
18 to 34
35 to 49
50 to 64
65 and older
Male
Female
Male, Married
Female, Married
Male, Unmarried
Female, Unmarried
Working Class Men
Working Class Women
College Educ Men
College Educ Women
High school or less
Technical school/Some college
College graduate
Postgraduate work
Central / Lakes
Connecticut Valley
Manchester Area
Mass Border
North Country
Seacoast
First Cong. District
Second Cong. District
31%
36%
21%
7%
9%
5%
62%
55%
73%
32%
46%
21%
7%
6%
8%
61%
48%
71%
28%
53%
18%
7%
7%
7%
65%
40%
74%
49%
29%
13%
7%
37%
64%
56%
38%
23%
12%
7%
6%
31%
55%
70%
14%
24%
32%
49%
8%
8%
7%
6%
78%
67%
61%
46%
26%
34%
6%
8%
68%
58%
34%
50%
21%
25%
3%
6%
8%
9%
62%
44%
71%
65%
24%
27%
29%
43%
5%
8%
9%
9%
71%
65%
62%
48%
18%
31%
33%
42%
6%
7%
10%
7%
76%
63%
57%
52%
24%
42%
30%
38%
22%
30%
4%
7%
8%
11%
7%
5%
72%
51%
63%
51%
71%
64%
30%
30%
7%
8%
64%
62%
211
263
218
271
110
293
240
169
286
37
658
62
189
442
130
218
170
155
363
332
133
125
226
201
235
189
123
134
166
258
156
102
111
52
182
121
112
117
354
341
(N)
695
Definitely Decided Leaning Toward Someone Still Trying To Decide
NH Likely Voters 30%7%63%
Decided on Vote for Governor
Registered Democrat
Registered Undeclared/Not Reg.
Registered Republican
Democrat
Independent
Republican
Core DEM
Swing Voter
Core GOP
Definitely Decided
Leaning Towards Someone
Still Trying To Decide
Will Definitely Vote
Will Vote Unless Emergency
Extremely Interested in Election
Very Interested
Somewhat/Not Very Interested
Trump Voter
Clinton Voter
Johnson Voter
Stein Voter
Other/Undecided
18 to 34
35 to 49
50 to 64
65 and older
Male
Female
Male, Married
Female, Married
Male, Unmarried
Female, Unmarried
Working Class Men
Working Class Women
College Educ Men
College Educ Women
High school or less
Technical school/Some college
College graduate
Postgraduate work
Central / Lakes
Connecticut Valley
Manchester Area
Mass Border
North Country
Seacoast
First Cong. District
Second Cong. District
13%
31%
9%
2%
2%
1%
10%
38%
87%
75%
29%
4%
18%
33%
13%
2%
3%
1%
8%
35%
83%
72%
29%
3%
13%
43%
10%
2%
3%
1%
4%
28%
88%
81%
26%
1%
59%
6%
2%
1%
3%
2%
18%
53%
56%
22%
39%
40%
33%
18%
2%
2%
34%
46%
31%
35%
45%
23%
13%
4%
1%
2%
23%
38%
51%
27%
38%
35%
40%
34%
15%
18%
3%
5%
0%
2%
15%
100%
25%
82%
5%
42%
37%
3%
74%
8%
16%
19%
29%
0%
0%
3%
2%
54%
46%
47%
35%
37%
37%
31%
34%
17%
21%
1%
2%
52%
37%
30%
40%
26%
26%
11%
17%
1%
6%
1%
47%
34%
55%
39%
26%
35%
32%
43%
16%
17%
17%
25%
1%
2%
1%
2%
56%
45%
45%
26%
27%
35%
37%
47%
12%
19%
17%
28%
2%
1%
2%
2%
64%
43%
40%
28%
22%
36%
41%
43%
15%
20%
18%
23%
18%
18%
2%
1%
1%
2%
1%
53%
56%
40%
30%
56%
46%
31%
24%
40%
46%
23%
35%
19%
18%
1%
2%
49%
41%
31%
39%
204
255
212
267
104
287
237
151
284
190
48
428
35
637
59
178
434
39
5
38
327
256
128
213
161
149
353
319
127
119
222
196
232
184
117
129
161
254
152
94
107
52
180
116
107
111
339
333
(N)
672
Sununu Van Ostern Other Undecided
NH Likely Voters 19%2%45%35%
Vote for Governor - Sununu vs. Van Ostern
Registered Democrat
Registered Undeclared/Not Reg.
Registered Republican
Democrat
Independent
Republican
Core DEM
Swing Voter
Core GOP
Definitely Decided
Leaning Towards Someone
Still Trying To Decide
Will Definitely Vote
Will Vote Unless Emergency
Extremely Interested in Election
Very Interested
Somewhat/Not Very Interested
Trump Voter
Clinton Voter
Johnson Voter
Stein Voter
Other/Undecided
18 to 34
35 to 49
50 to 64
65 and older
Male
Female
Male, Married
Female, Married
Male, Unmarried
Female, Unmarried
Working Class Men
Working Class Women
College Educ Men
College Educ Women
High school or less
Technical school/Some college
College graduate
Postgraduate work
Central / Lakes
Connecticut Valley
Manchester Area
Mass Border
North Country
Seacoast
First Cong. District
Second Cong. District
9%
22%
7%
2%
2%
1%
11%
44%
88%
78%
32%
4%
13%
22%
9%
2%
3%
1%
9%
41%
87%
76%
34%
3%
9%
33%
6%
2%
3%
1%
4%
34%
92%
85%
30%
1%
43%
1%
2%
1%
3%
2%
25%
57%
57%
31%
39%
40%
20%
13%
2%
2%
46%
48%
32%
37%
38%
15%
9%
5%
1%
2%
27%
43%
53%
30%
41%
37%
33%
24%
11%
12%
3%
5%
0%
2%
19%
100%
35%
85%
7%
46%
37%
4%
79%
5%
15%
9%
22%
0%
0%
3%
2%
56%
47%
51%
40%
39%
38%
37%
36%
11%
15%
1%
2%
55%
40%
32%
43%
17%
21%
8%
12%
1%
6%
1%
53%
35%
57%
42%
29%
38%
34%
46%
10%
11%
11%
21%
1%
2%
1%
2%
60%
48%
48%
29%
29%
39%
39%
49%
6%
14%
12%
23%
2%
1%
2%
2%
67%
47%
43%
30%
25%
38%
44%
45%
8%
18%
14%
17%
11%
14%
2%
1%
1%
2%
1%
57%
56%
42%
35%
58%
48%
33%
27%
42%
47%
29%
37%
14%
13%
1%
2%
51%
45%
34%
40%
204
254
212
267
104
286
237
150
284
188
48
428
34
637
58
178
434
37
5
38
327
256
128
213
161
147
352
319
125
119
222
196
230
184
117
129
161
253
152
94
107
52
180
116
107
109
338
333
(N)
671
Sununu Van Ostern Other Dont Know
NH Likely Voters 13%2%48%37%
Vote for Governor - Sununu vs. Van Ostern With Leaners
Registered Democrat
Registered Undeclared/Not Reg.
Registered Republican
Democrat
Independent
Republican
Core DEM
Swing Voter
Core GOP
Will Definitely Vote
Will Vote Unless Emergency
Extremely Interested in Election
Very Interested
Somewhat/Not Very Interested
Sununu Voter
Van Ostern Voter
Other/Undecided
18 to 34
35 to 49
50 to 64
65 and older
Male
Female
Male, Married
Female, Married
Male, Unmarried
Female, Unmarried
Working Class Men
Working Class Women
College Educ Men
College Educ Women
High school or less
Technical school/Some college
College graduate
Postgraduate work
Central / Lakes
Connecticut Valley
Manchester Area
Mass Border
North Country
Seacoast
First Cong. District
Second Cong. District
29%
40%
37%
2%
1%
9%
27%
48%
61%
32%
15%
30%
41%
38%
2%10%
24%
48%
58%
34%
14%
30%
43%
36%
2%
1%
6%
21%
52%
62%
35%
12%
39%
36%1%
20%
29%
40%
35%
39%
40%
34%
2%
1%
1%
24%
20%
32%
36%
39%
33%
63%
31%
26%
2%
1%
16%
54%
4%
19%
15%
70%
30%
32%
34%
46%
1%
1%
1%
32%
32%
31%
19%
37%
35%
34%
34%
38%
34%2%
33%
23%
29%
42%
45%
39%
33%
31%
3%
1%
31%
16%
35%
27%
24%
43%
32%
41%
31%
33%
49%
35%
2%
1%
39%
27%
25%
17%
31%
38%
26%
46%
38%
27%
41%
43%
1%
1%
1%
37%
32%
19%
23%
24%
40%
38%
34%
34%
25%
34%
43%
38%
36%
3%
32%
36%
24%
18%
36%
32%
34%
39%
39%
39%
26%
32%
36%
35%
1%
0%
32%
25%
31%
39%
209
266
218
274
110
293
239
171
287
38
658
64
190
440
100
319
248
130
214
170
161
363
333
134
130
224
199
233
188
126
138
163
257
160
103
112
54
185
120
111
116
353
343
(N)
696
Sununu Van Ostern Other Dont Know
NH Likely Voters 36%1%28%35%
NH Governor - Who Will Win?