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The History and Future of Space Weather
Dr. Thomas BergerNOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
HAO 75th Anniversary September 2, 2015
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18th and 19th CenturyThe Subject: Aurora Borealis
A Treatise on MeteorologyElias Loomis, 1868
Geodetic Expedition to Lapland Pierre Maupertuis, 1736
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1580 Augsburg, Germany
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©Joe McCabe17-March-2015
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22-January-2012
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Aurorae are linked to terrestrial “Magnetic Storms”
Kew Observatory, London, 1859
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1852: Edward Sabine asserts that magnetic storms are correlated with sunspots...
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...but there was no physical mechanism to explain a magnetic storm on Earth originating at the Sun.
Then on the morning of September 1st, 1859...
Redhill, Surrey, England
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Richard Carrington records the first known “white light flare”
September 1st, 1859 11:20 am local time
1826 — 1875
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A sudden magnetic jump was later found at exactly the same time…
Kew Observatory, London, September 1st 1859
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Kew Observatory, London, September 2nd 1859
...and approximately 17.5 hrs later, a HUGE magnetic storm commenced:
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The storm was detected all over the world...
Colaba Observatory, Bombay, India September 1—3 1859
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…and auroral displays were observed as far south as Honolulu and Venezuela.
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“The red light was so vivid that the roofs of the houses and the leaves of the trees appeared as if covered with
“The red light was so vivid that the roofs of the houses and the leaves of the trees appeared as if covered with blood”
Report of the aurora seen in San Salvador, September 2, 1859
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If no connexion had been known to subsist between these two classes of phenomena, it would, perhaps, be wrong to consider this
“... it would, perhaps, be wrong to consider this in any other light than a casual coincidence; but since General SABINE has proved that a relation subsists between magnetic disturbances and sun spots, it is not impossible to suppose that in this case our luminary was taken in the act.”
On the Great Magnetic Disturbance Which Extended from 28 August to 7 September 1859, as Recorded by Photography at the Kew Observatory, Phil. Trans. of the Royal Society of London, Vol. 151, (1861).
1861: Balfour Stewart proposes a link between Carrington’s observation and the geomagnetic storm.
1828 — 1887
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1863: George Airy, Astronomer Royal 1835 — 1881, refutes any connection…
On the Diurnal and Annual Inequalities of Terrestrial Magnetism
“If they point to any cycle at all, it is 6 or 6 1/2 years…”
George Airy, Proc. Roy. Soc. 1863
1801 — 1892
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1892: Lord Kelvin uses math… with bad physics.
1. Calculate the energy in a terrestrial magnetic storm.
2. Assume that the Sun is the source of that magnetic energy.
3. Assume the Sun emits this energy isotropically through all space.
4. The energy output of the Sun in several hours = its normal output in 4 months!
Royal Society Presidential Address
Nature, 47, 18921824 — 1907
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1897: J.J. Thomson discovers the electron“Something corpuscular that carries electric current”
Courtesy AIP, www.aip.org/history1856 — 1940
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c. 1900: Kristian Birkeland proposes that electrons from the Sun cause the Aurora.
1867 — 1917
Terrella experiments,
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1908, 49 after Carrington’s flare: George Ellery Hale uses the Zeeman effect to measure magnetism in sunspots.
Mt. Wilson Observatory, California
1868 — 1938
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1928: The first “space weather” forecast of radio conditions from the Eiffel Tower, using G. Marconi’s special receivers.
1874 — 1937
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1933: S. Chapman suggests plasma ejected during a flare can distort the Earth’s magnetic field.
Chapman and Bartels (1940)
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1940s: Movies are the frontier of solar physics...
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HAO Eclipse Expedition: 12 November 1966 at Pulacayo, Bolivia (altitude 13,000 ft).
…and the corona is studied during eclipses and shown to have a temperature of ~1,000,000 K: plasma
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1950s: Eugene Parker proposes the “Solar Wind”
www.lmsal.com
b. 1927Thesis advisor to Tom Bogdan
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1-Dec-1965: First regular daily report and forecast of solar conditions from “Space Disturbances Forecast Center” in Boulder, Colorado in support of NASA’s Gemini mission.
FROM SPACE DISTURBANCE FORECAST CENTER ESSA BOULDER COLO VIA AGIWARN
TRIAL SPACE DISTURBANCE FORECAST' NUf1BER 201 JUNE 1966
A. THE SUN CONT INUES RELAT IVEL Y INACT IVE TODAY. ONLY SUBFLARES HAVE
BEEN REPORTED eMMA IN REGIONS 8340 AND 8352. THE SUNSPOT GROUPS
. IN REGIONS 8340 AND 3344 ARE DECLINING. T\vO TINY NEW SUNSPOT
GROUPS HAVE APPEARED AT N17WOl N11Wll. THE SUNSPOT GROUP REPORTED
YE STERDAY AT N 18E38
HAS NOW VANISHED.
B. THE PROBABILIT IES FOR FLARES AND PROT.ON EVENTS FOR THE
THREE DAY PER 100 JUNE 21 t23 ARE AS IfIGURES ARE
FOR EACH OF THE THREE DAYSI
IMPORTANCE ONE FLARES 85/85/85
IMPORTANCE TWO FLARES .2/212
IMPORlANCE THREE FLARE S 0/0/0
IMPORTANCE FOUR FLARES 0/0/0
PROT ON EVENT S Q/O/O
C. THE 10.7 FLUX tODAy \lJAS 91. THE PREDICTED VALUES FOR
THE THREE DAY PER laD JUNE 21 t23 ARE' 91/91/92 .... ."
D. THE FREDERICKSBURG 'MAGNETIC A INDEX YESTERDAY WAS '6. TODAY IT WILL
BE ABOUT 6. THE PREDICTED VALUES FOR JUNE 21t23 ARE 6/4/,4. RMt'1XX
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1969: radio observations of the Sun indicate some kind of plasma expulsion
80 MHz radio observation of the Sun, 1-March-1969
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1971: NRL scientists use space-based Lyot coronagraph to produce artificial eclipses...
OSO-7, 1971: the first optical CME ever recorded
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...and identify “Coronal Mass Ejections” or CMEs
OSO-7, 1971: the first optical CME ever recorded
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1973: Skylab orbiting solar laboratory discovers “coronal holes”: recurring geomagnetic storms.
solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov
27 days
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1973: Skylab SO-52 coronagraph (HAO)
10-June-1973
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Today: Solar Magnetic Eruptions
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Today: Space Weather Forecasting
1. Flare “Radio Blackout” AlertIssued upon detection of X-ray flare by GOES satelliteLead time = 0
2. Radiation Storm WarningIssued if/when GOES detects rising radiation levelsLead time = minutes
3a. Geomagnetic Storm WatchIssued upon CME detection in SOHO coronagraphLead time = 15 — 72 hours
3b. Geomagnetic Storm WarningIssued upon CME detection at L1 by ACE satelliteLead time = 15 — 60 minutes
3c. Geomagnetic Storm AlertIssued upon real-time geomagnetic storm detectionCurrent conditions, Nowcasting
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Lead time: 0
Lead time: minutes
NOAA SWPC Space Weather Scales
Ionospheric Conditions?
Lead time: 12 — 72 hours
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Space Weather in the Department of Commerce
1942: National Bureau of Standards Interservice Radio Propagation Laboratory (IRPL). Newbern Smith, Director.
1945: IRPL —> Central Radio Propagation Laboratory (CRPL).
1954: CRPL moves from Washington, D.C. to Boulder, CO. Includes Space Environment Forecasting Division (SEFD).
Connie Sawyer, 1-Sep-2015
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1995: NOAA Reorganization
• SEL —> Space Environment Center (SEC).
1986: SEL Director Ernie Hildner. Retires in 2005.
1965: CRPL merges with Weather Bureau and Coast and Geodetic Survey to form Environmental Science Services Administration (ESSA).
• Space Disturbances Laboratory (SDL)
• Space Disturbances Forecast Center (SDFC)
1970: ESSA —> National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
• SDL —> Space Environment Laboratory (SEL). Don Williams, Director.
• SDFC —> Space Environment Services Center (SESC). Bob Doeker, Director.
• USAF begins operational coordination.
Space Weather in the Department of Commerce
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2005: SEC becomes part of National Weather Service (NWS) under the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP).
• SEC —> Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC).
2007–2012: SWPC Director Tom Bogdan.
SWPC Forecaster Meghan Stockman on the Weather Channel, July 2013
Space Weather in the Department of Commerce
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Space Weather in the Department of Commerce
2014: UK Met Office opens Space Weather Operations Center NOAA/SWPC trains and collaborates with UKMet forecasters.
2014: SWPC Director Tom Berger
UK Met Office, Exeter
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The Future: New Observations
DSCOVRIn testing at L1
GOES-RLaunching in 2016
COSMIC-2Launching in 2017
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The Future: New Models
Sun: !WSA Operational !
Solar Wind: !Enlil Operational !
Magnetosphere: !U. Michigan SWMF Operational in 2016!
Ionosphere: !IPE Operational in 2017 !
Thermosphere:!WAM Operational in 2015 !
Aurora: !OVATION Operational!
Ground:!E-Field Operational in 2017 !
FY16 PBR: +$1.5M for SWPC R2O “Testbed” activities!
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National Space Weather Strategy
Nov 2014 – Space Weather Operations, Research, and Mitigation (SWORM) Task
Force is chartered at the White House/OSTP
Tasked to develop:
• National Space Weather Strategy to ensure national readiness for an extreme space weather event.
• Space Weather Action Plan to implement strategy with a whole community approach.
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Will von Dauster, NOAA
Thank You!