The History and Future of Space Weather

Dr. Thomas BergerNOAA Space Weather Prediction Center

HAO 75th Anniversary September 2, 2015

18th and 19th CenturyThe Subject: Aurora Borealis

A Treatise on MeteorologyElias Loomis, 1868

Geodetic Expedition to Lapland Pierre Maupertuis, 1736

1580 Augsburg, Germany

©Joe McCabe17-March-2015

22-January-2012

Aurorae are linked to terrestrial “Magnetic Storms”

Kew Observatory, London, 1859

1852: Edward Sabine asserts that magnetic storms are correlated with sunspots...

...but there was no physical mechanism to explain a magnetic storm on Earth originating at the Sun.

Then on the morning of September 1st, 1859...

Redhill, Surrey, England

Richard Carrington records the first known “white light flare”

September 1st, 1859 11:20 am local time

1826 — 1875

A sudden magnetic jump was later found at exactly the same time…

Kew Observatory, London, September 1st 1859

Kew Observatory, London, September 2nd 1859

...and approximately 17.5 hrs later, a HUGE magnetic storm commenced:

The storm was detected all over the world...

Colaba Observatory, Bombay, India September 1—3 1859

…and auroral displays were observed as far south as Honolulu and Venezuela.

“The red light was so vivid that the roofs of the houses and the leaves of the trees appeared as if covered with

“The red light was so vivid that the roofs of the houses and the leaves of the trees appeared as if covered with blood”

Report of the aurora seen in San Salvador, September 2, 1859

If no connexion had been known to subsist between these two classes of phenomena, it would, perhaps, be wrong to consider this

“... it would, perhaps, be wrong to consider this in any other light than a casual coincidence; but since General SABINE has proved that a relation subsists between magnetic disturbances and sun spots, it is not impossible to suppose that in this case our luminary was taken in the act.”

On the Great Magnetic Disturbance Which Extended from 28 August to 7 September 1859, as Recorded by Photography at the Kew Observatory, Phil. Trans. of the Royal Society of London, Vol. 151, (1861).

1861: Balfour Stewart proposes a link between Carrington’s observation and the geomagnetic storm.

1828 — 1887

1863: George Airy, Astronomer Royal 1835 — 1881, refutes any connection…

On the Diurnal and Annual Inequalities of Terrestrial Magnetism

“If they point to any cycle at all, it is 6 or 6 1/2 years…”

George Airy, Proc. Roy. Soc. 1863

1801 — 1892

1892: Lord Kelvin uses math… with bad physics.

1. Calculate the energy in a terrestrial magnetic storm.

2. Assume that the Sun is the source of that magnetic energy.

3. Assume the Sun emits this energy isotropically through all space.

4. The energy output of the Sun in several hours = its normal output in 4 months!

Royal Society Presidential Address

Nature, 47, 18921824 — 1907

1897: J.J. Thomson discovers the electron“Something corpuscular that carries electric current”

Courtesy AIP, www.aip.org/history1856 — 1940

c. 1900: Kristian Birkeland proposes that electrons from the Sun cause the Aurora.

1867 — 1917

Terrella experiments,

1908, 49 after Carrington’s flare: George Ellery Hale uses the Zeeman effect to measure magnetism in sunspots.

Mt. Wilson Observatory, California

1868 — 1938

1928: The first “space weather” forecast of radio conditions from the Eiffel Tower, using G. Marconi’s special receivers.

1874 — 1937

1933: S. Chapman suggests plasma ejected during a flare can distort the Earth’s magnetic field.

Chapman and Bartels (1940)

1940s: Movies are the frontier of solar physics...

HAO Eclipse Expedition: 12 November 1966 at Pulacayo, Bolivia (altitude 13,000 ft).

…and the corona is studied during eclipses and shown to have a temperature of ~1,000,000 K: plasma

1950s: Eugene Parker proposes the “Solar Wind”

www.lmsal.com

b. 1927Thesis advisor to Tom Bogdan

1-Dec-1965: First regular daily report and forecast of solar conditions from “Space Disturbances Forecast Center” in Boulder, Colorado in support of NASA’s Gemini mission.

FROM SPACE DISTURBANCE FORECAST CENTER ESSA BOULDER COLO VIA AGIWARN

TRIAL SPACE DISTURBANCE FORECAST' NUf1BER 201 JUNE 1966

A. THE SUN CONT INUES RELAT IVEL Y INACT IVE TODAY. ONLY SUBFLARES HAVE

BEEN REPORTED eMMA IN REGIONS 8340 AND 8352. THE SUNSPOT GROUPS

. IN REGIONS 8340 AND 3344 ARE DECLINING. T\vO TINY NEW SUNSPOT

GROUPS HAVE APPEARED AT N17WOl N11Wll. THE SUNSPOT GROUP REPORTED

YE STERDAY AT N 18E38

HAS NOW VANISHED.

B. THE PROBABILIT IES FOR FLARES AND PROT.ON EVENTS FOR THE

THREE DAY PER 100 JUNE 21 t23 ARE AS IfIGURES ARE

FOR EACH OF THE THREE DAYSI

IMPORTANCE ONE FLARES 85/85/85

IMPORTANCE TWO FLARES .2/212

IMPORlANCE THREE FLARE S 0/0/0

IMPORTANCE FOUR FLARES 0/0/0

PROT ON EVENT S Q/O/O

C. THE 10.7 FLUX tODAy \lJAS 91. THE PREDICTED VALUES FOR

THE THREE DAY PER laD JUNE 21 t23 ARE' 91/91/92 .... ."

D. THE FREDERICKSBURG 'MAGNETIC A INDEX YESTERDAY WAS '6. TODAY IT WILL

BE ABOUT 6. THE PREDICTED VALUES FOR JUNE 21t23 ARE 6/4/,4. RMt'1XX

1969: radio observations of the Sun indicate some kind of plasma expulsion

80 MHz radio observation of the Sun, 1-March-1969

1971: NRL scientists use space-based Lyot coronagraph to produce artificial eclipses...

OSO-7, 1971: the first optical CME ever recorded

...and identify “Coronal Mass Ejections” or CMEs

OSO-7, 1971: the first optical CME ever recorded

1973: Skylab orbiting solar laboratory discovers “coronal holes”: recurring geomagnetic storms.

solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov

27 days

1973: Skylab SO-52 coronagraph (HAO)

10-June-1973

Today: Solar Magnetic Eruptions

Today: Space Weather Forecasting

1. Flare “Radio Blackout” AlertIssued upon detection of X-ray flare by GOES satelliteLead time = 0

2. Radiation Storm WarningIssued if/when GOES detects rising radiation levelsLead time = minutes

3a. Geomagnetic Storm WatchIssued upon CME detection in SOHO coronagraphLead time = 15 — 72 hours

3b. Geomagnetic Storm WarningIssued upon CME detection at L1 by ACE satelliteLead time = 15 — 60 minutes

3c. Geomagnetic Storm AlertIssued upon real-time geomagnetic storm detectionCurrent conditions, Nowcasting

Lead time: 0

Lead time: minutes

NOAA SWPC Space Weather Scales

Ionospheric Conditions?

Lead time: 12 — 72 hours

Space Weather in the Department of Commerce

1942: National Bureau of Standards Interservice Radio Propagation Laboratory (IRPL). Newbern Smith, Director.

1945: IRPL —> Central Radio Propagation Laboratory (CRPL).

1954: CRPL moves from Washington, D.C. to Boulder, CO. Includes Space Environment Forecasting Division (SEFD).

Connie Sawyer, 1-Sep-2015

1995: NOAA Reorganization

• SEL —> Space Environment Center (SEC).

1986: SEL Director Ernie Hildner. Retires in 2005.

1965: CRPL merges with Weather Bureau and Coast and Geodetic Survey to form Environmental Science Services Administration (ESSA).

• Space Disturbances Laboratory (SDL)

• Space Disturbances Forecast Center (SDFC)

1970: ESSA —> National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

• SDL —> Space Environment Laboratory (SEL). Don Williams, Director.

• SDFC —> Space Environment Services Center (SESC). Bob Doeker, Director.

• USAF begins operational coordination.

Space Weather in the Department of Commerce

2005: SEC becomes part of National Weather Service (NWS) under the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP).

• SEC —> Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC).

2007–2012: SWPC Director Tom Bogdan.

SWPC Forecaster Meghan Stockman on the Weather Channel, July 2013

Space Weather in the Department of Commerce

Space Weather in the Department of Commerce

2014: UK Met Office opens Space Weather Operations Center NOAA/SWPC trains and collaborates with UKMet forecasters.

2014: SWPC Director Tom Berger

UK Met Office, Exeter

The Future: New Observations

DSCOVRIn testing at L1

GOES-RLaunching in 2016

COSMIC-2Launching in 2017

The Future: New Models

Sun: !WSA Operational !

Solar Wind: !Enlil Operational !

Magnetosphere: !U. Michigan SWMF Operational in 2016!

Ionosphere: !IPE Operational in 2017 !

Thermosphere:!WAM Operational in 2015 !

Aurora: !OVATION Operational!

Ground:!E-Field Operational in 2017 !

FY16 PBR: +$1.5M for SWPC R2O “Testbed” activities!

National Space Weather Strategy

Nov 2014 – Space Weather Operations, Research, and Mitigation (SWORM) Task

Force is chartered at the White House/OSTP

Tasked to develop:

•  National Space Weather Strategy to ensure national readiness for an extreme space weather event.

•  Space Weather Action Plan to implement strategy with a whole community approach.

Will von Dauster, NOAA

Thank You!