The State of our Ecosystems: A view from Sub-global Assessments
of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Doris CapistranoCenter for International Forestry Research
29 October 2007
Presentation Outline
I. MA sub-global assessments
II. Main messages and findings
III. Sub-global perspectives on key issues
MA Framework
Map showing the sub-global assessments of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Source: UNEP-WCMC (2007)
Source: UNEP-WCMC (2007)
13%
Source: UNEP-WCMC (2007)
Source: UNEP-WCMC (2007)
To varying degrees, SGAs:
•Considered factors emanating from different scales
•Sought to incorporate different types of knowledge
Status of Sub-global Assessments
• The SGAs continue to excite interest; new SGAs are being initiated
• There is a larger proportion of MA-SGAs that are still underway, than have been completed.
• Most are either in the early stages of the assessment process or close to completion.
• Hence findings at this point are still partial and preliminary
II. Main Findings
SGA findings are broadly consistent with global results:• Several ecosystem services are in fair to poor condition
and declining; but their underlying dynamics vary
• Land use change is a key driver of change in ecosystem services; other drivers also important to varying degrees
• There are clear trade-offs among ecosystem services; costs and burdens not equitably distributed
• Interventions can mitigate trade-offs (across services, time and space)
CHANGE in AREAS WITH “WILDERNESS CHARACTER”IN THE GLOMMA BASIN
More Than 5km From Substantial Technical Encroachment
1900 1940 1998
Source: Sandlund, O. T., Norway Technical Design & Methods (Panama, June 2002)
• Despite gains in the provisioning of food, water and wood, the capacity of ecosystems to continue to provide these services is at risk in several locations
Caribbean Sea
• Some 80% of living corals in the reefs has been lost in the past 20 years;
• Some reefs changed from having 50% live coral cover to only 10%;
• Losing ability to serve as protective barrier; increased levels of beach erosion
• Continued decline would cost region US$350-870 million per year by 2050
Greater Jakarta Bay Ecosystem
Number of fishers in Northern Jakarta Region
Nitrate and Phosphate concentrations in Jakarta Bay (arrows indicate occurrence of micro-algal bloom)
Jakarta Bay fish production from local capture fishery landed at Fish Auction
Laguna Lake Basin, Philippines
• Fish production has declined by 64% from 1980 to 1996
• Combined aquaculture and capture fisheries provided 66% of freshwater fish requirement of Metro Manila; now only providing 18%
• Social conflicts over fisheries; between fishery, agriculture, industry
Runoff
Industries Real Estates
Ricefield Area
Lake level Viaduct / polder
Metro Manila Water Consumption
• Domestic • Industrial
cooling • Power
generation
Rainfall
Irrigation
Price of rice
Rice Production
Typhoon
Flood
Population per capita consumption
Food demand/security
Alternative Livelihood:
• Fishing • Cottage
Industry • Vegetables
production • Livestock • Services
Pollution
Yield/area Change in variety Use of pesticides Culture
Timing of planting
Pests and diseases rats, snails water lily
Vegetables Ornamentals
Laguna Lake Basin, Philippines: trade-offs among food, water, urban and industrial development
Distribution of the mainland systems analyzed in the Portugal Assessment (Direcção □erald as Florestas 2003; MA 2004)
Condition and trend of the services in each ecosystem in Portugal Assessment
(Arrows indicate trend of the condition ecosystem; hands indicate trend of the flow of ecosystem service)
Land use change in Portugal: interaction of economi c policies, demographic change and biophysical condit ions
Source: Portugal Assessment
Portugal: area of main forest types (by dominating tree species)
Source: Portugal Assessment
SAfMA: scope and organization
FuelwoodThere is no regional crisis, but many local ones
ENERGY
NutritionThe real African crisis is protein
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Car
bohy
drat
es (
cal/c
ap/d
ay)
Nitr
ogen
ous
fert
liser
(10
00t)
45
50
55
60
Pro
tein
(gr
ams/
capi
ta/d
ay)
Carbohydrates
Protein
Fertiliser use
FOOD
Places where ecosystem service fail are also centers of conflict
Western China land cover scenarios with climate cha nges
Periods: from 1961 to 1990; from 2010 to 2039, from 2040 to 2069 and from 2070 to 2099 respectively)
Western China: rehabilitation and incentives for land use from farming to afforestation
SGA Findings on Biodiversity
• There is a consistent trend of biodiversity loss across a variety of ecosystems
• Mean assessments of biodiversity condition do not fully capture the range of conditions found in the assessment area.
• Conditions can be better or worse in different parts of the assessment area depending on factors such land use management practices, tenure and institutional arrangements
• Based on expert group rating, biodiversity condition in SGAs varied from poor to excellent
native habitat cover, number of species, population sizes
↓↓↓↓3Portugal
coral reefs↓↓↓↓4PNG
↓↓↓↓3Norway
expert opinion↓↓↓↓3Northern Range
number of species↓↓↓↓2Laguna Lake Basin
habitat quantity and quality, number of species, harvest pressure; heterogeneous across taxa
↔↔↔↔3India Urban
conservation status, number of species↓↓↓↓4India Local
number and distribution of species↓↓↓↓4Eastern Himalayas
wetland area↓↓↓↓3Downstream Mekong
live coral cover↓↓↓↓1Caribbean Sea
hunting pressure, timber harvest, biodiversity index, forest cover; heterogeneous across taxa
↔↔↔↔3Bajo Chirripó
good in forest, poor in steppe↓↓↓↓3Altai-Sayan
CommentTrendsCondition*Sub-global Assessment
Qualitative assessment of biodiversity condition an d trends in selected ecosystems in sub-global assessments
*Scale: 1 (poor) to 5 (excellent)
↓↓↓↓4Western China–SW
↑↑↑↑2Western China–NW
↓↓↓↓1Lampung, Indonesia
↓↓↓↓4Jambi, Indonesia
↓↓↓↓3Yaounde, Cameroon
↓↓↓↓5Ebolowa, Cameroon
↓↓↓↓2Rondonia, Brazil
↓↓↓↓4Acre, Brazil
aboveground plant biodiversity measured as number of species and functional types
Tropical Forest Margins
number and distribution of native species↓↓↓↓3Sinai
number of species, vegetation cover↓↓↓↓4São Paulo
number of species↓↓↓↓3San Pedro de Atacama
biodiversity intactness index, forest area↓↓↓↓4SAfMA Regional
number of species, vegetation types, irreplaceability
↓↓↓↓3SAfMA Gariep
number of ecosystems↓↓↓↓4SAfMA G-M (Gorongosa)
CommentTrendsCondition*Sub-global Assessment
*Scale: 1 (poor) to 5 (excellent)
Qualitative assessment of biodiversity condition an d trends in selected sub-global assessments
III. Sub-global perspectives on key issues
Thousands above(red) and below(blue)
Sub-Global Assessment Freshwater
>100
10-100
<10
0-10
>10
Bad
Poor
Fair
Good
Excellent
Thousands above(red) and below(blue)
Sub-Global Assessment Freshwater
>100
10-100
<10
0-10
>10
Bad
Poor
Fair
Good
Excellent
The condition and trends of ecosystem may depend on the scale of analysis
• Global forces significantly affect magnitude and quality of ecosystem services down to farm and household levels.
• Following forces are especially influential:– Global markets and trade– Climate change– Shifts in global political and economic order
• Where there are no social safety nets, diminished well-being increases immediate dependence on ecosystems
• People devalue the consequences of their actions on future generations and other scales when their security of life and livelihood is threatened
• People likely to avoid commitment to altered resource management if they perceive their returns as vulnerable or variable
• Effective institutions and governance arrangements evolve in response to site and culture specific conditions and extreme events
• Local actions (responses) can have global significance although there are time lags.
– It takes time for the effects to be noticed at coarser scales
– Market mechanisms may obscure the process
• Emergence of non-governmental interests as agenda setters on the global stage
• “Bridging” organizations and individuals play important roles in facilitating learning, collaboration, and evolution of newinstitutions
Guiding Principles
Cyclic s-t
Adaptive managementand learning process Resilience
Deliberative and CollectiveDecision Making
Hananpacha
Kaypacha
Ukupacha
Andean Landscapes:Space-time-thoughtconstruction
Chaos B
Chaos ASource: Vilcanota SGA
The view from below on issues of common concern
Market forces:
– At global level forces seen as governing large scale resource allocation, changing ecosystems
– At localized scales, these determine livelihood strategies, security and protective responses
Environmental degradation:
– At global level, focus on issues of biodiversity and climate change in broad aggregates
– At localized scale, tied up to complex trade-offs associated with the provision of ecosystems services on which livelihoods depend
Perceptions and uses ofinstitutional channels for response:
– At global level, often pertains to global agreements and financial commitments
– At the localized level, focuses on cooperative resource management and indigenous advocacy
Concluding Comments:
• The CBD helped open up spaces at the global level that is transforming global environmental governance with consequent ripple effects
• More needs to be done to address key drivers of ecosystem change and to reduce inequities in sharing benefits and burdens
• Action and effective responses critical to progress towards global biodiversity and poverty reduction targets