The State of our Ecosystems: A view from Sub-global Assessments

of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

Doris CapistranoCenter for International Forestry Research

29 October 2007

Presentation Outline

I. MA sub-global assessments

II. Main messages and findings

III. Sub-global perspectives on key issues

MA Framework

Map showing the sub-global assessments of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

Source: UNEP-WCMC (2007)

Source: UNEP-WCMC (2007)

13%

Source: UNEP-WCMC (2007)

Source: UNEP-WCMC (2007)

To varying degrees, SGAs:

•Considered factors emanating from different scales

•Sought to incorporate different types of knowledge

Status of Sub-global Assessments

• The SGAs continue to excite interest; new SGAs are being initiated

• There is a larger proportion of MA-SGAs that are still underway, than have been completed.

• Most are either in the early stages of the assessment process or close to completion.

• Hence findings at this point are still partial and preliminary

II. Main Findings

SGA findings are broadly consistent with global results:• Several ecosystem services are in fair to poor condition

and declining; but their underlying dynamics vary

• Land use change is a key driver of change in ecosystem services; other drivers also important to varying degrees

• There are clear trade-offs among ecosystem services; costs and burdens not equitably distributed

• Interventions can mitigate trade-offs (across services, time and space)

CHANGE in AREAS WITH “WILDERNESS CHARACTER”IN THE GLOMMA BASIN

More Than 5km From Substantial Technical Encroachment

1900 1940 1998

Source: Sandlund, O. T., Norway Technical Design & Methods (Panama, June 2002)

• Despite gains in the provisioning of food, water and wood, the capacity of ecosystems to continue to provide these services is at risk in several locations

Caribbean Sea

• Some 80% of living corals in the reefs has been lost in the past 20 years;

• Some reefs changed from having 50% live coral cover to only 10%;

• Losing ability to serve as protective barrier; increased levels of beach erosion

• Continued decline would cost region US$350-870 million per year by 2050

Greater Jakarta Bay Ecosystem

Number of fishers in Northern Jakarta Region

Nitrate and Phosphate concentrations in Jakarta Bay (arrows indicate occurrence of micro-algal bloom)

Jakarta Bay fish production from local capture fishery landed at Fish Auction

Laguna Lake Basin, Philippines

• Fish production has declined by 64% from 1980 to 1996

• Combined aquaculture and capture fisheries provided 66% of freshwater fish requirement of Metro Manila; now only providing 18%

• Social conflicts over fisheries; between fishery, agriculture, industry

Runoff

Industries Real Estates

Ricefield Area

Lake level Viaduct / polder

Metro Manila Water Consumption

• Domestic • Industrial

cooling • Power

generation

Rainfall

Irrigation

Price of rice

Rice Production

Typhoon

Flood

Population per capita consumption

Food demand/security

Alternative Livelihood:

• Fishing • Cottage

Industry • Vegetables

production • Livestock • Services

Pollution

Yield/area Change in variety Use of pesticides Culture

Timing of planting

Pests and diseases rats, snails water lily

Vegetables Ornamentals

Laguna Lake Basin, Philippines: trade-offs among food, water, urban and industrial development

Distribution of the mainland systems analyzed in the Portugal Assessment (Direcção □erald as Florestas 2003; MA 2004)

Condition and trend of the services in each ecosystem in Portugal Assessment

(Arrows indicate trend of the condition ecosystem; hands indicate trend of the flow of ecosystem service)

Land use change in Portugal: interaction of economi c policies, demographic change and biophysical condit ions

Source: Portugal Assessment

Portugal: area of main forest types (by dominating tree species)

Source: Portugal Assessment

SAfMA: scope and organization

FuelwoodThere is no regional crisis, but many local ones

ENERGY

NutritionThe real African crisis is protein

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Car

bohy

drat

es (

cal/c

ap/d

ay)

Nitr

ogen

ous

fert

liser

(10

00t)

45

50

55

60

Pro

tein

(gr

ams/

capi

ta/d

ay)

Carbohydrates

Protein

Fertiliser use

FOOD

Places where ecosystem service fail are also centers of conflict

Western China land cover scenarios with climate cha nges

Periods: from 1961 to 1990; from 2010 to 2039, from 2040 to 2069 and from 2070 to 2099 respectively)

Western China: rehabilitation and incentives for land use from farming to afforestation

SGA Findings on Biodiversity

• There is a consistent trend of biodiversity loss across a variety of ecosystems

• Mean assessments of biodiversity condition do not fully capture the range of conditions found in the assessment area.

• Conditions can be better or worse in different parts of the assessment area depending on factors such land use management practices, tenure and institutional arrangements

• Based on expert group rating, biodiversity condition in SGAs varied from poor to excellent

native habitat cover, number of species, population sizes

↓↓↓↓3Portugal

coral reefs↓↓↓↓4PNG

↓↓↓↓3Norway

expert opinion↓↓↓↓3Northern Range

number of species↓↓↓↓2Laguna Lake Basin

habitat quantity and quality, number of species, harvest pressure; heterogeneous across taxa

↔↔↔↔3India Urban

conservation status, number of species↓↓↓↓4India Local

number and distribution of species↓↓↓↓4Eastern Himalayas

wetland area↓↓↓↓3Downstream Mekong

live coral cover↓↓↓↓1Caribbean Sea

hunting pressure, timber harvest, biodiversity index, forest cover; heterogeneous across taxa

↔↔↔↔3Bajo Chirripó

good in forest, poor in steppe↓↓↓↓3Altai-Sayan

CommentTrendsCondition*Sub-global Assessment

Qualitative assessment of biodiversity condition an d trends in selected ecosystems in sub-global assessments

*Scale: 1 (poor) to 5 (excellent)

↓↓↓↓4Western China–SW

↑↑↑↑2Western China–NW

↓↓↓↓1Lampung, Indonesia

↓↓↓↓4Jambi, Indonesia

↓↓↓↓3Yaounde, Cameroon

↓↓↓↓5Ebolowa, Cameroon

↓↓↓↓2Rondonia, Brazil

↓↓↓↓4Acre, Brazil

aboveground plant biodiversity measured as number of species and functional types

Tropical Forest Margins

number and distribution of native species↓↓↓↓3Sinai

number of species, vegetation cover↓↓↓↓4São Paulo

number of species↓↓↓↓3San Pedro de Atacama

biodiversity intactness index, forest area↓↓↓↓4SAfMA Regional

number of species, vegetation types, irreplaceability

↓↓↓↓3SAfMA Gariep

number of ecosystems↓↓↓↓4SAfMA G-M (Gorongosa)

CommentTrendsCondition*Sub-global Assessment

*Scale: 1 (poor) to 5 (excellent)

Qualitative assessment of biodiversity condition an d trends in selected sub-global assessments

III. Sub-global perspectives on key issues

Thousands above(red) and below(blue)

Sub-Global Assessment Freshwater

>100

10-100

<10

0-10

>10

Bad

Poor

Fair

Good

Excellent

Thousands above(red) and below(blue)

Sub-Global Assessment Freshwater

>100

10-100

<10

0-10

>10

Bad

Poor

Fair

Good

Excellent

The condition and trends of ecosystem may depend on the scale of analysis

• Global forces significantly affect magnitude and quality of ecosystem services down to farm and household levels.

• Following forces are especially influential:– Global markets and trade– Climate change– Shifts in global political and economic order

• Where there are no social safety nets, diminished well-being increases immediate dependence on ecosystems

• People devalue the consequences of their actions on future generations and other scales when their security of life and livelihood is threatened

• People likely to avoid commitment to altered resource management if they perceive their returns as vulnerable or variable

• Effective institutions and governance arrangements evolve in response to site and culture specific conditions and extreme events

• Local actions (responses) can have global significance although there are time lags.

– It takes time for the effects to be noticed at coarser scales

– Market mechanisms may obscure the process

• Emergence of non-governmental interests as agenda setters on the global stage

• “Bridging” organizations and individuals play important roles in facilitating learning, collaboration, and evolution of newinstitutions

Guiding Principles

Cyclic s-t

Adaptive managementand learning process Resilience

Deliberative and CollectiveDecision Making

Hananpacha

Kaypacha

Ukupacha

Andean Landscapes:Space-time-thoughtconstruction

Chaos B

Chaos ASource: Vilcanota SGA

The view from below on issues of common concern

Market forces:

– At global level forces seen as governing large scale resource allocation, changing ecosystems

– At localized scales, these determine livelihood strategies, security and protective responses

Environmental degradation:

– At global level, focus on issues of biodiversity and climate change in broad aggregates

– At localized scale, tied up to complex trade-offs associated with the provision of ecosystems services on which livelihoods depend

Perceptions and uses ofinstitutional channels for response:

– At global level, often pertains to global agreements and financial commitments

– At the localized level, focuses on cooperative resource management and indigenous advocacy

Concluding Comments:

• The CBD helped open up spaces at the global level that is transforming global environmental governance with consequent ripple effects

• More needs to be done to address key drivers of ecosystem change and to reduce inequities in sharing benefits and burdens

• Action and effective responses critical to progress towards global biodiversity and poverty reduction targets