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The World in 2014
Which way is up?
Trajectory Partnership
January 2014
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Which way is up?
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GLOBAL MEGA-TRENDS
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-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
World (market exchange rates) USA Japan
Euro area China Eastern Europe
Asia & Australasia (excl Japan) Latin America Middle East & North Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit
Key global GDP forecasts
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Multispeed Global Economy
“The days of investing indiscriminately in EMs and expecting double digit returns are over. There is going to be more volatility going forward and the key for investors is to be able to differentiate the strong and appropriately priced from the vulnerable and inappropriately priced in EMs”.
Rapid development in Emerging Economies
Stagnation in Advanced Economies
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Global Income Inequality
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Global Population Change
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Urbanisation
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Economic Migration
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A global crisis of legitimacy
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UK - crises, cock-ups and cover-ups
With apologies to any companies or institutions not included
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Youth Without a Future
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Mobile Connectivity
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Climate Change
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SOCIAL AND CULTURAL TRENDS
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Data Privacy and Security
Image: NSA HQ, Fort Mead, Maryland, USA
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Biometrics and Quantified Health
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Feminism and Women’s Rights
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Culture Clashes
day-to-day co-existence of values
generational and gender lines typical
secular versus religious focus
modernity, tradition and values
day-to-day co-existence of values
fragile alliances forged in frustration
inchoate range of issues and objectives
fractured in face of repression
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Connectivity - Our Hybrid World
Source: http://www.urbanriver.com/offline-marketing.html
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Changing Faces of Reality
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THE POST-RECESSIONARY
CONSUMER PSYCHE
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Source: Trajectory/Harvard Business Review
The Post-Recession Consumer
The New Morality forces people to reconsider their
ethical concerns
Ostentatious or frivolous spending has fallen out of
favour
Ethical priorities have shifted to boardroom practice, executive pay and
corporate tax culture
Austerity adds another layer of complexity – so simplicity is more valuable than ever
Better off consumers are recognising the wider benefits of thrift, and choosing to save
money when they don’t need to
People are forced to place trust in institutions they might otherwise dislike as a route out of
the crisis
Loyalty to brands has fallen, as consumers become more agile and
less predictable
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Individualisation
Citizen Brands Individual Brands
Self Preservation Society
C-Suite Scrutiny
The New Morality
Austerity and Public Finances
Institutional and business malpractice
Economic Stagnation
The New Morality in 2014
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DEREGULATION OF LIFE
Consumer Psychology. Cultural Metastasis
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…..brand opportunities
Choice Control
Complexity
Anxiety Time Pressure
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Consumer Polarisation
Uncompromising Consumers
Compromised Consumers
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The Compromised Consumer
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
TGF Average
UK USA France Poland Japan Brazil India China Russia
Agreeing that: getting the cheapest price is important & I often
feel under time pressure & I feel a low sense of choice and control
2011 2012 2013
Source: Global Foresight 2011-2013
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Uncompromising Consumers
16%
21% 21%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2011 2012 2013
All who agree price inflation is a very big
problem and who use price comparison sites
NEW SLOWING
MATURING STABLE
MATURE GROWING
GLOBAL NICHE
ADVANCED SPREADING
EMERGING MASS MARKET
Sophisticated and demanding consumers,
empowered by affluence and technology
are increasingly unwilling to compromise on
price, brand, personalisation, timeliness etc.
Mobile and social technology is a key driver –
in-the-moment comparisons and feedback –
but also a wider consumer culture of instanity
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In Summary (1)
• Global economy continues to recover – on current terms
• Rapid urbanisation and economic migration key social issues
• Emerging markets face continued financial market volatility
• Major demo-socio-economic challenges facing all regions
• Climate change impacts continue – especially emerging
markets
• Consumer tech provides new opportunities & challenges
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In Summary (2)
• Recessionary psyche to endure for many – with wider impacts
• Polarisation and inequality a major focus for the year ahead
• The New Morality continues to play a key public/media role
• Feminist critiques and campaigns play different roles/markets
• Deregulation of life requires considered responses to complexity
• Tech enabled horizontal community activism offers alternatives
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Thank you
Trajectory Ltd
Enterprise House 1-2 Hatfields
London SE1 9PG
T 020 3567 5801
#TrajectoryTweet
www.trajectorypartnership.com
Michael Brennan
Executive Director [email protected]