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Analysis of the Benefits, Impacts, and Trade-Offs with Developing theMarcellus Shale Gas Potential in Broome County, NY
Summary
The Marcellus Shale has a significant role in the Southern Tier,
specifically Broome County. Unconventional methods have lead to
different views involving shale gas recovery. The economic gains will
greatly affect the local community, however, so will the environmentalimpacts that remain after drilling is complete. For this reason, detailed
analysis is done with regards to economic stimulation, GHG emissions
in comparison to coal and oil, water and chemical usage, risk
assessment, property value and social impacts.
Taniya Thomas
Sergio Mino
Table of Contents
1. Introduction and Objective 1
2. Natural Gas Consumption
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Sergio Mino & Taniya ThomasAnalysis of the Benefits, Impacts, and Trade-Offs with Developing the Marcellus ShaleGas Potential in Broome County, NY
3. Marcellus Shale
3
4. Hydraulic Fracturing
45. Vertical vs. Horizontal Drilling
5
6. Regulations 5
7. Evaluation of Benefits 6
i. Resource Assessment
6
ii. Oil and Coal Comparison
8
iii. Economic Benefits and Job Creations
9
8. Evaluation of Threats11
i. Water Usage
11
ii. Chemicals Used for Hydraulic Fracturing
12
iii. Risk Assessment
13
iv. Flowback Water
15 v. Impact on Land
16
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Sergio Mino & Taniya ThomasAnalysis of the Benefits, Impacts, and Trade-Offs with Developing the Marcellus ShaleGas Potential in Broome County, NY
vi. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Methane Release
16
vii. Social Impacts
169. Conclusions
17
References
18
Appendix
20
20
1. Introduction and Objective
The Marcellus Shale development has divided the opinions of the
residents in New York State, more specifically Broome County where
there are proven reserves. While the prospects of economic
improvement, job creation and energy needs, may sound appealing to
some in the community, there are many concerns regarding potential
negative effects that also worry a large portion of the community.There are arguments that can support both sides.
Our objective is to address the potential positive and negative
effects of developing the Marcellus Shale in Broome County, evaluate
the current understanding of each effect and established conclusions
and recommendations.
2. Natural Gas Consumption
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Sergio Mino & Taniya ThomasAnalysis of the Benefits, Impacts, and Trade-Offs with Developing the Marcellus ShaleGas Potential in Broome County, NY
Natural gas is an important energy source for the United States
and accounts for close to one-fourth of all consumption.1 The current
natural gas reserves in the United States is about 802.226 TCF, with
244.7 TCF corresponding to dry natural gas from which about 32.8 TCF
come from shale gas (not including the Marcellus Shale, Appendix I).
However, annual imports of natural gas are about 3.75 BCF, with
Canada being the primary natural gas supplier by pipeline while Egypt
and Trinidad supply liquefied natural gas (LNG) to the U.S.2
In 2009 alone, the United States was the biggest consumer of
natural gas in the world with a consumption of 22,816 BCF/Year
according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA 2009),
followed by Russia, which consumed 15,524 BCF/Year. Additionally,
natural gas accounts for nearly 24% of the total consumption of
primary energy sources and 21.97% of the total electrical generation in
the U.S.1
The EIA has established that the current growth of consumption
of natural gas will be 0.2 percent a year from 2008 to 2035. Under
these circumstances the U.S. needs to ensure the supply of natural gas
in order to satisfy the expected demand.
According to NYSERDA, New York consumption of natural gas
was about 1,172 BCF/Year for 2008, or 5% of the total U.S. demand in
the same year. Figure 1 separates how natural gas is used in New
York, with the most use of natural gas coming from residential and
electrical generation. Transportation consumes the least natural gas
relative to the other sectors, however it represents 64% of the total
use of natural gas for transportation purposes in the U.S. with 31 TBTU
in 2008.3
Figure 1. New York State primary natural gas consumption bysector
Based on Data from NYSERDA
In comparison, New York used about 240.6 TBTU in 2008 of coal
and 453.1 TBTU of nuclear, which was the principal source for
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Sergio Mino & Taniya ThomasAnalysis of the Benefits, Impacts, and Trade-Offs with Developing the Marcellus ShaleGas Potential in Broome County, NY
electrical generation. However, the states primary source of energy
came from petroleum products with a total of 1,505 TBTU.4
New Yorks strong dependence on oil accounts for 37.4% of the
total energy consumption, but the state also depends strongly on
natural gas, which is 30% of the total energy consumption. (Appendix
II) The difference between the two fossil fuels is where they are used.
75.4% of all petroleum is used in transportation. (Appendix II) The
strong dependence on oil in New York coincides with the strong
dependence on oil for the U.S. Nevertheless, 91% of the New Yorks
total dependence on foreign oil greatly outweighs that of the U.S.,
which depends on 68% of foreign oil.5 Natural gas, as mentioned
earlier, is used more significantly in residential settings and electricity
generation, accounting for 66.6% of the total for both end uses.
It is evident that natural gas is of high demand in the United
States, specifically New York. Additionally, it can be argued to have
less environmental impacts than other fossil fuels. The discovery and
the development of the Marcellus Shale is of great importance to
places such as Broome County, (located in the Southern Tier region of
New York and a southern border with Pennsylvania) which sits on top
of significant shale gas from the Marcellus Shale. In 2008, about
50,975 homes in Broome County were using natural gas, which
accounts for a large percent of the natural gas consumed.1
However, in addition to possible benefits, there are also a
number of threats and consequences that are a result of drilling for
natural gas.
3. Marcellus Shale
The Marcellus Shale is a marine sedimentary rock formation thatit is characterized as black shale with limestone beds and
concentrations of iron pyrite and siderite.6 It covers an area between
52,000 and 95,000 square miles and is located in parts of Ohio,
Virginia, Pennsylvania, New York, Maryland and Kentucky.7 The latter
two states account for small areas.
The thickness of the Marcellus Shale changes considerably over
its total extent. In general, the Marcellus formation thins goes from
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Sergio Mino & Taniya ThomasAnalysis of the Benefits, Impacts, and Trade-Offs with Developing the Marcellus ShaleGas Potential in Broome County, NY
east to west and ranges from 50 to 200 feet. In Broome County,
Marcellus shale is between 3000-4000 feet below ground level.8
The total amount of gas in the Marcellus Shale has been under
debate for years. In 2002, the United States Geological Survey (USGS)
estimated the total amount of gas to be 1.9 TCF. Later, in 2008,
Professor Lash Gary from The State University of New York at Fredonia
estimated the total to be about 490 TCF, of which only 10% was
recoverable.9 The most recent estimate comes from Professor Terry
Engelder of Pennsylvania State University who calculated a total of 489
TCF of gas was recoverable, with the possibility of up to 1,306 TCF if
the entire Marcellus formation has gas.10 A deeper analysis of
estimations will be discussed later.
The significant changes in these estimations have been made
possible as a result of new technology hydraulic fracturing.
4. Hydraulic Fracturing
Hydrocarbon and gas reservoirs depend highly on permeability in
order to provide acceptable yields of production. Once a mature
reservoir starts lowering production rates then a well stimulation
operation is necessary in order to enhance the recovery. On the other
hand, a conventional reservoir is characterized for having a geological
connectivity and permeability that allows recovery by conventional and
economical techniques for oil or gas. Recent technological
development can change the status of a reservoir and convert the
once unconventional reservoir to a conventional one. For the case of
shale formations, the gas is trapped inside fractures and pores of theshale, as the shale itself is characterized as a very low permeability
formation because it is in the form of fine grains. This allows the shale
to be cracked easily without disintegrating it when it is humidified.
Hydraulic fracturing is a well stimulation technique used to
enhance recovery of mature reservoirs as well as to make
economically and technically feasible to recover gas or oil from
unconventional reservoirs. The basis of the technique is to enhance the
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Sergio Mino & Taniya ThomasAnalysis of the Benefits, Impacts, and Trade-Offs with Developing the Marcellus ShaleGas Potential in Broome County, NY
permeability of a formation by first opening fractures and then
stabilizing the fractures by injecting a low permeable matrix. This
allows the gas to be released into the fractures and then transported
through the injected permeable matrix towards the recovery well.
In order to enhance the operation conditions of the hydraulic
fracturing and the recovery, as well as the necessary protection for the
equipment, different types of substances are used in hydraulic
fracturing in what is known as hydraulic fluid. Typically, this fluid is
water, however other carriers such as oil, methanol and a
water/methanol mixture have been used. There has also been research
into the feasibility of CO2.11 The fluid is injected at a high pressure over
10,000 psi into the formation to create a conductive path from the
wellbore into the formation as well as carry the necessary proppant to
create a conductive path for hydrocarbons.The volumes of total
hydraulic fluid for one well range from less than one million for vertical
wells and up to five million for horizontal wells.12 The composition by
volume of the hydraulic fluid is 95 to 99.7% of water and sand and the
rest are additives as shown in (Appendix III, Figure 1)13
A perforation gun using electric charge opens fractures. Next,
acid is injected in order to clean the holes to assure that fractures are
smooth and the surface is uniform. Then, water and sand is injected as
the proppant. Other types of additives are used to reduce friction and
to prevent fouling and corrosion. The most common additives used are
biocides, surfactants, gels, acids and alcohols.
The necessary pressure to initialize fracturing is determined by
knowing all stress in the formation. This is determined using Equation
1. (Appendix IV)5. Vertical vs. Horizontal Drilling
Fracturing operations, requirements and yields are highly
dependent on whether it is applied in a vertical or horizontal well. The
vertical wells are the most common and were the first developed.
These wells are vertically drilled in sections. The first section is the
drilling through 50 -100 ft down the water table, were special
measures are taken to protect the aquifer by installing a steel casing
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Sergio Mino & Taniya ThomasAnalysis of the Benefits, Impacts, and Trade-Offs with Developing the Marcellus ShaleGas Potential in Broome County, NY
and cementing the annulus. Then, the well is drilled even further down
into the formation. At that point different tests are made to make sure
the resource will be productive.
With horizontal drilling, drilling is initiated using the same
method as vertical, but at some point the drilling is turned horizontally
by using a mud motor. The mud motor is a device that contains a rotor
and a stator inside it that is turned by the force of drilling mud and is
able to remain in an established direction. Horizontal drilling can
extend up to 5,000 ft in the horizontal plane. For this reason the
fracturing is done in sections but surface contact of the wellbore with
the formation is notably increased. This also results in a higher use of
hydraulic fluid per well.
Between 2006 and 2010, 2000 wells have been drilled in the
Marcellus Shale. 710 of these wells were drilled in 2009 alone, of which
508 were horizontal wells.14
6. Regulations
At the federal level there are various regulations that apply to oil
and gas drilling operations. These regulations are dependent on the
waste that is to be regulated or the possible receptor of an emission
and depend upon a department of the government, such as the
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the Bureau of Land
Management (BLM) or the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management and
Enforcement (BOEMRE).
There have also been many laws passed in order to regulate
certain emissions and other consequences of drilling. These include the
Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA), the Clean Water Act
and the Safe Drinking Water Act. The RCRA regulates the release ofhazardous wastes. However, in 2005, Congress decided to exempt the
oil and gas industries from compliance of Subtitle C, Section 3001(b)(2)
(A) and Section 8002(m), pending more studies and regulatory
determination by EPA.15 The Clean Water Act requires that a permit
issued by the National Pollutant Elimination System (NPES) must
authorize any discharge of pollutants to the surface water.
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Sergio Mino & Taniya ThomasAnalysis of the Benefits, Impacts, and Trade-Offs with Developing the Marcellus ShaleGas Potential in Broome County, NY
The subsurface regulation of the injection of wastewater is
regulated by the Safe Drink Water Act (SDWA). The purpose of this
regulation is to protect underground sources of drinking water, for this
purpose, the regulation distinguishes between different classifications
of wells. Depending of the well, there are some minimum requirements
for the construction, operation, maintenance and monitoring. Also at
the federal level, BLM has authority over onshore leasing, exploration,
development and production of oil or gas on federal land. This
regulation is ruled by the Title 43 CFR part 3160 where general
requirements for operations and leases are defined, for example leases
terms, operation conditions, permits to drill and methods for containing
disposal of wastes.16
Regulations at state level, for New York State, are found under
the New York Codes, Rule and Regulations (NYCRR). Regulations
specifically meant for oil and gas operations are stated in 6 NYCRR
parts 550 through 559 (Appendix V).
7. Evaluation of Benefits
i. Resource Assessment
There have been a wide range of estimates regarding how much
natural gas is present in the Marcellus Shale and how much of it can be
recovered. Values have been provided previously, however there are
many considerations that need to be accounted for in order to make a
valid estimation regarding the recoverable natural gas.17 Vertical and
horizontal drilling greatly impacts the amount of natural gas that can
be recovered. Hydraulic fracturing, can extract significantly more
natural gas from the Marcellus Shale than any other known method at
the moment. For this reason, all calculations are based on horizontaldrilling techniques for maximum yields.
In 2005, hydraulic fracturing was introduced to the Marcellus
Shale after successful production results from the Barnett Shale in
Texas.18 This resulted in some wells producing millions of cubic feet
worth of natural gas.
While the exact amount of natural gas in the Marcellus Shale is
unknown, it can be estimated over a range. The size of the Marcellus
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Sergio Mino & Taniya ThomasAnalysis of the Benefits, Impacts, and Trade-Offs with Developing the Marcellus ShaleGas Potential in Broome County, NY
Shale spans between 54,000 square miles and 95,000 square miles.
For each area, a maximum and minimum for total natural gas was
calculated assuming that 70% of the land was usable. For the
minimum value, calculations were based on 0.5 BCF gas production of
a well per 80 acres and for the maximum value, 2.5 BCF was used over
the same area. Table 1 shows the results of these calculations.
Table 1. Natural Gas from the Marcellus Shale
Area (SquareMiles)
Minimum (TCF) Maximum (TCF)
54000 151.2 75695000 266 1330
Since there is not enough data on production, recoverable natural
gas is based upon various assumptions and calculations (Appendix VI)
The Federal Energy Regulatory Commissions (FERC) estimate for
recoverable natural gas from the Marcellus Shale is within the smaller
area range at 262 TCF.19 However, as previously mentioned, Engelder
predicts the recoverable natural gas from Marcellus to be 489 TCF.
Both of these values fall within the total range from Table 1.
The total natural gas available in Broome County was calculated
using similar methods as above. These results can be found in Table 2.
(Appendix VII)
Table 2. Natural Gas from the Marcellus Shale Broome County
Area (SquareMiles)
Minimum (TCF) Maximum (TCF)
707 1.98 9.90
ii. Oil and Coal Comparison
Petroleum (crude oil) is of important use to the United States. In
2009 about half of crude oil came from Texas, Alaska, California, North
Dakota and Louisiana.20 57% of petroleum is imported to the United
States from Canada, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Nigeria and Mexico.
21
The United States is currently the largest consumer of petroleum and
consumes close to 19.5 MMbbl a day.21 However, when petroleum
products are burned, they can have emit harmful products into the
environment such as carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide,
nitrogen oxides, volatile organic compounds (VOC), particulate matter
and lead to name a few.20
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Sergio Mino & Taniya ThomasAnalysis of the Benefits, Impacts, and Trade-Offs with Developing the Marcellus ShaleGas Potential in Broome County, NY
According to the EIA, the United States will become less
independent on foreign petroleum as 2030 approaches. Both oil prices
and natural gas production are proportional to each other. That is,
when prices for oil are higher, there is an increased demand in natural
gas production and vice versa. With the amount of natural gas in the
Marcellus Shale (and other shale) and better technology from
horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, more gas is to be recovered
therefore bringing the natural gas to the market faster.21
While oils main use is in transportation, coal is primarily used for
electric power generation and accounts for over 50 percent of the
power used in the United States.22 In the Middle Atlantic states, coal
use for electric power generation came second only to nuclear and was
followed by natural gas in 2009.23
Last year, the U.S. consumed about one billion tons of coal,
which was a 10.7 percent decrease from the previous year, however
prices grew for the sixth year.24
Since coal and natural gas have significant use for electric power
generation, it is evident that natural gas will be a reliable substitute for
coal while emitting less greenhouse gases in the long term.
While greenhouse gas consists of many different gases, for the
purpose of comparison, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, which
accounts for a significant component of emissions, were compared for
the three fuel types. Table 3 shows the GHG emissions for Broome
County for natural gas, oil and coal.
Table 3. GHG emissions for natural gas, oil and coal - Broome
County
Sector Natural Gas(TCF) Oil (TCF) Coal (TCF)
Electric Generation 0.00277 0.000420 0.00260Residential 0.00277 0.00168 3.06 x 10-5 *Commercial 0.00210 0.00112 --Industrial 0.000588 0.000280 0.000428
Transportation 0.000168 0.0105 0TOTAL 0.00841 0.0140 0.00306
* Total for Residential and Commercial, Coal.Appendix VIIIIn New York, coal accounts for only six-percent of total primary
consumption while natural gas is 30 percent and petroleum is 37
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Sergio Mino & Taniya ThomasAnalysis of the Benefits, Impacts, and Trade-Offs with Developing the Marcellus ShaleGas Potential in Broome County, NY
percent of the total.1 For this reason, the GHG emissions for coal seem
much lower than that for natural gas, on a percent basis, coal emits
more than natural gas. (Appendix VIII)
iii. Economic Benefits and Job Creations
From current trends, it is expected that gas production in the
Marcellus Shale will continue to expand as natural gas continues to be
used in a variety of ways. As mentioned earlier, horizontal drilling can
produce substantially more gas than vertical drilling.
Natural gas prices have varied substantially and are projected to
grow for the next two decades.25 The Marcellus Shale prices are lower
in comparison to other shale formations for two main reasons: drilling
costs are lower than for other shale as a result of gas deposits being
closer to the surface and the installation of the Millennium Pipeline.17
Recently, like in many counties across the country, Broome
County has reported negative economic growth.17 Developing the
Marcellus Shale can bring economic stimulation to the county since
prices for natural gas are expected to rise. Additionally, there will be
continued demand for natural gas in transportation, residential and
industrial uses.17
The Marcellus Shale itself can bring anywhere from $588 billion
to $5.2 trillion based upon the total possible natural gas extracted
using the current price of natural gas ($3.79/MM BTU on November 19,
2010).
For Broome County, the total possible revenue ranges from $7.7
billion to $38.5 billion. While it is unknown exactly how many wells will
be drilled in Broome County, the maximum estimated is 3959 wells
with eight wells per 640 acres (Appendix IX). That means that eachwell can bring between $1,946,165 and $9,730,825 to the County.
However, spending costs must also be taken into account. These costs
will include such things as leasing land, exploration, cost to drill wells,
operating costs and royalties to name a few.
From the production and time relation graph, it is concluded that
it will take about 30 years for all the resources in the Marcellus Shale in
Broome County to be depleted (Figure 2). This is a within the typical
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Sergio Mino & Taniya ThomasAnalysis of the Benefits, Impacts, and Trade-Offs with Developing the Marcellus ShaleGas Potential in Broome County, NY
time frame for natural gas wells that normally have a 20-30 year
lifespan.
Figure 2. Production vs. Time Graph for Minimum and
Maximum Value
Calculation from Excel Spreadsheet
By calculating the net present value (NPV) in this case, it was
found that values were negative. The reason for this being that the
values were calculated based on the current value of natural gas.
However, as previously mentioned, the price of natural gas is to rise
significantly resulting in a higher retention of the total possible
revenue mentioned.
If gas companies decided to drill in Broome County, the county
has 6,000 acres of land that it owns. If it leased the right to the land to
a company, the money received could help reduce what taxpayers pay
to the county. Most recently, there was a $7.8 MM lease offer for 3200
acres with 20% royalties by Inflection Energy for County land which
was rejected.26 Additionally, property tax will be used toward schools,
therefore providing more funding for local schools and better
educational opportunities for the local community.With drilling of the Marcellus Shale, it is expected that companies
have a location in Broome County, which will additionally stimulate the
local economy with the number of people moving to the county to
relocate for new job opportunities. At the same time, local businesses
will correlate their business with gas production, which in turn will help
these businesses prosper.
Job creation is a beneficial result of natural gas drilling. There will
be more jobs available in many sectors including mining, construction,
wholesale trade, and transportation and warehousing to name a few,
both directly and indirectly.27 On average, there are about four jobs
created per well drilled. So, over 15,800 jobs will be created. This is
significant for a county that has seen a decline in population and a
negative percent change in employment between 2000 and 2009 for it
is largest city, Binghamton.17
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Sergio Mino & Taniya ThomasAnalysis of the Benefits, Impacts, and Trade-Offs with Developing the Marcellus ShaleGas Potential in Broome County, NY
8. Evaluation of Threats
i. Water Usage
Water usage for hydraulic fracturing of a horizontal well is
between three to five million gallons per well.28 There are claims that
the available water in the Marcellus Shale region is ideal for shale gas
development in the area mainly because the annual precipitations
ranges between 710 billion and 1,250 billion gallons of water.29
However, the New York State Department of Environmental
Conservation states in its Water Impact Assessment that the actual
water demand for gas operations will only be known after applications
are received, reviewed and approved or rejected by the appropriate
regulatory agencies.30 But for projection purposes, data from the
current applications approved for shale gas operations in horizontal
drilling have been studied.
The NYS DEC states that the Delaware River Basin(DRB)
Commission received applications requesting up to one million gallons
per day (MGD) to support development and extraction activities in the
Delaware Basin. The Susquehanna River Basin (SRB) Commission has
approved up to 8.86 MGD to 9.24 MGD for almost 20 different locations
in Pennsylvania. Typically, range of water usage approval for this basin
has been between 0.041 MGD to 3 MGD.
The DEC report considered this usage low comparing other
current daily usages approved in the SRBC as the largest identified use
is for water supply at approximately 325 million gallons per day (MGD),
followed by power generation at 150 MGD and recreation with 150
MGD. While the current estimate for water usage in gas operations
related to the Marcellus Shale is about 30 MGD or near 6% of the totaluse for water supply.
The Susquehanna Basin comprises a south part of New York that
includes the areas of the Chenango, Otsego, Delaware, Tioga and
Broome Counties. The consumptive use for the upper Susquehanna
region, which is where Broome County is located, is estimated to be
41.4 MGD and projected to be 110.5 MGD.
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Sergio Mino & Taniya ThomasAnalysis of the Benefits, Impacts, and Trade-Offs with Developing the Marcellus ShaleGas Potential in Broome County, NY
For 3959 wells, the total amount of water needed assuming a
rate of 5 MGD is 19,796 MGD. This amount is 2.27 times the total
available water withdrawal from the DRB, which is 8,736 MGD, and
22.43 times the total available water withdrawal from the SRB
assuming all wells were hydraulically fractured in one year, which is
unlikely. The proposed new regulatory framework for hydraulic
fracturing mentions that ideally only 30 MGD can be allowed for
consumptive use on hydraulic fracturing in the SRB, while the DRB can
allow almost 300 MGD, making a total of 330 MGD available for
Broome County.Later, the ideal number of wells will be calculated.
(Appendix XIII)
ii. Chemicals Used for Hydraulic Fracturing
Special attention is centered in the use of various types of
chemicals for hydraulic fracturing. The chemicals principally used are
acids and additives as breakers, biocides, fluid loss additives, friction
reducers, corrosion inhibitors, proppants, iron controllers, reducers,
surfactants, gels, cross link and scale inhibitors. A full explanation of
each chemical is available in Appendix X.
iii. Risk Assessment
According to industry and EPA studies, the amount of chemicals
that can be considered toxic, corresponds to less than five-percent of
the total volume of chemicals used in the hydraulic fracturing fluids,
and the exposure to humans and other species may be limited since
these fluids are injected at depths where it is unlikely for the chemicals
to migrate to an aquifer.31
Toxicological Analysis
The first step for the toxicological analysis was to identify thechemicals that are most likely to be used in the hydraulic fluid
available in Table 4.
Table 4. Toxicity information for fracturing chemicals29,32
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Sergio Mino & Taniya ThomasAnalysis of the Benefits, Impacts, and Trade-Offs with Developing the Marcellus ShaleGas Potential in Broome County, NY
To calculate the data in Table 5, Equation 2 was use. (Appendix IV and
Appendix X)
From Figure, 3 the value of foc is found at 2% so that Kd will be
0.02. L/Kg. This means the concentration of absorbed chemical in the
formation is low compared to the dissolve chemical.
Figure 3. TOC levels for New York34
From Figure 5 it can be inferred that dissolve chemicals in the
aqueous phase may need to migrate through several permeable and
impermeable lawyers in order to reach groundwater for human
consumption. According to the USGS , the water table in Broome
County may be around 26 feet on the subsurface, while the top layer of
the Marcellus may lay under 4000 ft. This scenario makes it very
unlikely that the contaminants can migrate from the shale formation.
Figure 5. Marcellus Shale in New York35
iv. Flowback Water
According to EPAfluids recovered range from 15 to 80 percent of
the volume injected depending on the site.36 This fluid can be recycled
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Sergio Mino & Taniya ThomasAnalysis of the Benefits, Impacts, and Trade-Offs with Developing the Marcellus ShaleGas Potential in Broome County, NY
if their physical and chemical conditions allow it, otherwise they must
be disposed according to the regulations and standards for the
industry.
The new proposed regulation for horizontal wells is going to
require the operator detailed information about the disposal process of
flowback water, including inventories of the amounts managed,
storage tanks information, facilities for treatment or disposal near the
PADs and other information related to waste handling.
v. Impact on Land
i. State of land after drilling is completed
After the production well finishes its life cycle, it is expected that
the operator return the leased site to the owner in an acceptable state.
If the operator fails to treat drilling fluids and flowback water properly,
the site is likely to be polluted.
ii. Impact on property value
Based on the experience with the Barnett Shale, it can be
inferred that the impact on property value will change with time.37
When natural gas is being extracted it is expected that the prices of
property increases due to more demand for housing and offices, and
because of higher income and expectation on leases from the natural
gas companies. There is evidence that certain industrial activities may
cause environmental stigma and therefore a decrease in property
value relative to the properties where there was not fracturing
operations.The decrease on property value can be from 8 to 20
percent in total.38
vi. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Methane Release
A recent study suggests the GHG emissions of natural gas fromhydraulic fracturing may be 2.4 times higher that the carbon dioxide
released in the combustion of natural gas.39 In this process 13.7 grams
C of CO2 per million joules are released, compared to 18.6 grams for
gasoline and 24.0 grams for bituminous coal combustion.40
Methane leakage during natural gas extraction from the
Marcellus Shale, can substantially increase the GHG emissions.39 In the
preliminary estimates this would make natural gas less competitive in
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terms of emissions compared with other fossil fuels as coal, or oil
(Appendix XII)
Engelder was consulted recently about the findings by Howarth
and argues that the numbers for methane are too large for current
advances and the comparison with other fossil fuels may not take into
account the location and accessibility of oil which may increase the
release factor of the other sources (Appendix XII).
vii. Social Impacts
There have been both positive and negative perceptions
regarding shale development. In a comparison between two counties in
Northern Texas, Wise County and Johnson County, both of which have
been affected by the Barnett Shale, have two different perceptions on
shale development.40 Johnson County sees development as a positive
outcome resulting from the economic benefits, job creation, rise in
property value and higher revenues for the County. Wise County,
where development began in 1980, sees the impact of development
after resources have depleted. They live in an environment where
there is environmental degradation, scarcity of available freshwater
and a decrease in quality of life.
This study can be used to assess the social impacts of the
Marcellus Shale. It will give insight into the current conditions and
future conditions of natural gas development.
9. Conclusions
Positive impacts are most visible in economic gains for the
Broome County in terms of royalties and tax payments, for the leasers
in terms on yearly earnings.
With our assumptions of a production well with a maximum of 2.5 BCFand costs of $3.5 MM per well, with the current price of natural gas
high profits are unlikely. However, since the price of natural gas is
expected to go up substantially over the next few decades, high profits
become more likely.
Water usage is a main concern when dealing with hydraulic
fracturing. In Broome County, the SRB and DRB can only provide a
maximum of about 330 MGD. For this reason, the maximum number of
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wells that must be allowed per year in Broome County must be no
more than 66. This number this must be specified in the regulations.
Other recommendations that involve water regulation include the
recycling of hydraulic fluids and new facilities for water, wastes
treatments and disposal.
Gas companies must design a strategy to get in contact with the
concerned community and address their worries responsibly. Other
concerns that can affect people are the possible decrease in quality of
life, caused by the increase of heavy trucks, noise and release of
pollution. In this case the County must account to set up funds that can
be used to remediate those externalities, this funds can be provide by
the royalties paid by the companies.
There must still be more analysis into GHG emissions and more
research into convert fuel type uses, such as the conversion of light
and heavy trucks to natural gas. This can help alleviate New Yorks
dependence on oil.
The role of an academic institution, such as Cornell University, is
to provide the necessary information based on science, economics and
the communitys well being.
References
1. NYSERDA: Patterns and Trends: New York State Energy Profiles: 1994 -2008, January20102. "International Energy Statistics." U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA Independent Statistics and Analysis. Web. 10 Nov. 2010..3. "International Energy Statistics." U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA -Independent Statistics and Analysis. Web. 10 Nov. 2010..4. "U.S. Natural Gas Consumption by End Use." U.S. Energy Information Administration -EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis. Web. 10 Nov. 2010.
.5. NYSERDA: Patterns and Trends: New York State Energy Profiles: 1994 -2008, January20106."Marcellus Shale Gas: New Research Results Surprise Geologists!" Geology.com - EarthScience News, Maps, Dictionary, Articles, Jobs. Web. 12 Nov. 2010..7. Arthur, Daniel, Brian Bohm, and Mark Layne. "Hydraulic Fracturing Considerations forNatural Gas Wells of the Marcellus Shale." Proceedings of the 2008 Ground WaterProtection Council Annual Forum, Cincinnati, Ohio . ALL Consulting. Print.8. Presentation from Broome County Health Dept. Division of Environmental HealthServices.9. Engelder, Terry, Gary G. Lash, and Redescal S. Uzctegui. "Joint Sets That EnhanceProduction from Middle and Upper Devonian Gas Shales of the Appalachian Basin."AAPGBulletin 93.7 (2009): 857-89. Print.1
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10. Couturier, Greg, and Terry Engelder. "Marcellus Shale Appalachian Play Poised for'break Out' Year in '08." Natural Gas Week24 Dec. 2007. Print.11. Yost / DOE,METC, A. B., R. L. Mazza / Petroleum COnsulting Services, and G. B. Gerh /Natural Gas Resources Corp. "CO2/Sand Fracturing in Devonian Shales." Proceedings:1993 Eastern Regional Conference & Exhibition, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, November 2-4,1993. Vol. I. [Richardson, TX]: Society, 1993. 353-62. Print. Ser. 93114512. Moss / GRD External Minerals and Energy Coordinator, Kerry, Carol McCoy / GRDBranch Chief, and Pat ODell / GRD Petroleum Engineer. Development of the Natural Gas
Resources in the Marcellus Shale New York, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia, Ohio,Tennessee, and Maryland. Rep. Denver, CO: National Park Service U.S. Department of theInterior, 2009. Print. 13. Sergio -Need to Cite14. National Energy Technology Laboratory, Summer 2010 Oil and Gas ProgramNewsletter15. "Federal Regulations: Environmental Protection Agency." Web. 15 Nov. 2010..16. "Federal Regulations: Bureau of Land Management." Drilling Waste ManagementInformation System. Web. 20 Nov. 2010..17. Weinstein, Bernard L., and Terry L. Clower. "Potential Economic and Fiscal Impactsfrom Natural Gas Production in Broome County, NY." (Sept. 2009).18. National Energy Technology Laboratory, Summer 2009 Oil and Gas ProgramNewsletter
19. "Making A Big Productions: Shale's Growing Share of US Natural Gas Resource Base."NaturalGas.org. Web. 20 Nov. 2010..20. "EIA Energy - Oil (petroleum)." U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA -Independent Statistics and Analysis. Web. 21 Nov. 2010..21. "EIA's Energy in Brief: How Dependent Are We on Foreign Oil?" U.S. EnergyInformation Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis. Web. 19 Nov.2010. .22. "Impacts of Electric Power Industry Restructuring on the Coal Industry." U.S. EnergyInformation Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis. Web. 19 Nov.2010. .23. "U.S. Coal Supply and Demand." U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA -Independent Statistics and Analysis. Web. 20 Nov. 2010.
.24. "U.S. Coal Supply and Demand." U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA -Independent Statistics and Analysis. Web. 21 Nov. 2010..25. "Natural Gas Demand." U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - IndependentStatistics and Analysis. Web. 19 Nov. 2010. .26. Campbell, Jon. "Broome County Legislature Rejects Inflection's $7.8M Gas Offer."Press Connects [Binghamton] 18 Nov. 2010.27. Considine, Timothy J. "The Economic Impact of the Marcellus Shale Implications forNew York, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia." Report to The American Petroleum Institute(July 2010).28. "Hydraulic Fracturing | Hydraulic Fracturing | US EPA." EPA Office of Water Home |Water | US EPA. Web. 24 Nov.2010..
29. Arthur, Daniel, Brian Bohm, and Mark Layne. "Hydraulic Fracturing Considerations forNatural Gas Wells of the Marcellus Shale." Proceedings of the 2008 Ground WaterProtection Council Annual Forum, Cincinnati, Ohio . ALL Consulting. Print.30.United States of America. New York State Department of Environmental Conservation.Division of Mineral Resources. Draft Supplemental Generic Environmental ImpactStatement on the Oil, Gas and Solution Mining Regulatory Program: Well Permit Issuancefor Horizontal Drilling and High-volume Hydraulic Fracturing to Develop the MarcellusShale and Other Low-permeability Gas Reservoirs, September 2009. Albany, NY: New YorkState, Dept. of Environmental Conservation, Division of Mineral Resources, Bureau of Oiland Gas Regulation, 2009.31. Evaluation of Impacts to Underground Source of Drinking Water by HydraulicFracturing of Coalbed Methane Reservoirs. Rep. no. EPA 816-R-04-003. Washington D.C.,2004.
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32. Fink, Johannes Karl. "Chapter 17: Hydraulic Fracturing." Oil Field Chemicals.Amsterdam: Gulf Professional Pub., 2003. And "Regional Screening Levels | Region 9:Superfund | US EPA." US Environmental Protection Agency. Web. 15 Nov. 2010..33. United States. E.P.A. Supplemental Guidance for Developing Soil Screening Levels forSuperfund Sites. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2002. Print.andBaes, C. F. "A Proposal for Estimation of Soil Leaching and Leaching Constants for Use in
Assessment Models."Journal of Environmental QualityJanuary-March 12.1 (1983).34.Smith, Langhorne B., and James Leone. "Integrated Characterization of Utica andMarcellus Black Shale Gas Plays, New York State." Search and Discovery. 31 Aug. 2010.Web. 15 Nov. 2010.35. Smith, Langhorne B., and James Leone. "Integrated Characterization of Utica andMarcellus Black Shale Gas Plays, New York State." Search and Discovery. 31 Aug. 2010.Web. 15 Nov. 2010. Figure 7.36. United States. U.S. E.P.A. Office of Research and Development. Hydraulic FracturingResearch Study. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office ofResearch and Development, 2010. Print.37.Baker, Sandra. "Barnett Shale Rig Report." Fort Worth Star Telegram. 19 Nov. 2010.Web. 24 Nov. 2010. .
38. Reichert, Alan K. "Impact of a Toxic Waste Superfund Site on Property Values."Appraisal Journal 1 Oct. 1997. and Hite, Diane, Wern Chern, Fred Hitzhusen, and AlanRandall. "Property-Value Impacts of an Environmental Disamenity: The Case of Landfills."The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 0895-5638 22.2 (2001).39. Howarth, Robert W. "Preliminary Assessment of the Greenhouse Gas Emissions fromNatural Gas Obtained by Hydraulic Fracturing." Technology Review. Web. 15 Nov. 2010..40."Voluntary Reporting of Greenhouse Gases Program Fuel Carbon Dioxide EmissionCoefficients." U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and
Analysis. Web. 16 Nov. 2010. .41. Anderson, Brooklynn J., and Gene L. Theodori. "LOCAL LEADERS PERCEPTIONS OFENERGY DEVELOPMENT IN THE BARNETT SHALE." Southern Rural Sociology24.1 (2009):113-29.
APPENDIX I: Shale Gas Production U.S. Source: EnergyInformation Administration / U.S. Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Natural GasLiquids Reserves, 2008
APPENDIX II: U.S. and New York Natural Gas Consumption
From the Patterns and Trends Study of NYSERDA 2008 the total energy
consumption in TBtu is 4,027 and the total for natural gas consumption
is 1,209.20 TBtu and for petroleum products is 1,504.60 TBtu.
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(1,209.20/4,027)x 100%= 30%
(1,504.20/4,027)x 100%= 37.4%
For the New York Consumption of Natural Gas Pie Chart:
Residential: (402.6/1,209)x100%= 33%
Commercial: (299.6/1,209)x100% = 25%
Industrial: (84.8/1,209)x100%= 7%
Transportation: (19.4/1,209)x100%= 2%
Electric Generation: (402.9/1,209)x100%= 33%
Appendix III
Figure 2. Hydraulic Fracturing Considerations for Natural GasWells of the Marcellus Shale.
Source: Arthur, Daniel, Brian Bohm, and Mark Layne. "Hydraulic FracturingConsiderations for Natural Gas Wells of the Marcellus Shale." Proceedings ofthe 2008 Ground Water Protection Council Annual Forum, Cincinnati, Ohio .ALL Consulting. Print.
Appendix IV: Equations
(Equation
1)
Where
Pb is the fracture initialization pressure
3sH,min is the minimal horizontal stress
sH,max is the maximal horizontal stress = minimal horizontal stress +tectonic stress.
Tis the tensile strength of the rock
P is the pore pressure
Kd = Koc*foc (Equation
2)
Where:
Kd is the soil-water partition coefficient
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Koc is the organic carbon partition coefficient
foc is the fraction of organic carbon in soil, which in a shale formation
can be related to the TOC (Total Organic Carbon).
APPENDIX V: State Regulatory Requirements forDrilling Operations.
The main New York State regulations for Oil and Gas operations are thefallowing stated in the 6 NYCRR parts from 550 to 559.
The main issues regulated regarding drilling activity are the fallowing:
550 Promulgation and Enforcement of Rules and Regulations
The aim of this chapter is to define the general rules and policiesthat must guide the licensing of oil and gas operations in thestate. The general policy is to develop a scheme in which oil andgas operations are done with the less environmental impactespecially in the reduction of wastes, contamination releases andprotect the rights of owners and the rights of all personsincluding land owners and the genera public.Contains a designation of authorities responsible for theadministration of enforcing rules, specifically to the Bureau ofMineral Resources. It also contains definitions, rules abouthearings and emergency orders, rules about the access to
properties and records and rules about offenses and penalties.Source: http://www.dec.ny.gov/regs/4467.html
551 Reports and Financial SecurityThis chapter establishes the rules about organizational reports,production and purchase reports, completion reports, gas oilreports, nonroutine incident report, plugging report, secondaryrecovery and pressure maintenance report. The oil and gasindustry must comply with specific requirements in their reportsincluding reporting exact quantities managed, the state ofoperations or any organizational change.
The chapter also establishes regulations about financial security,requiring specific requirements to file the oil and gas well withthe department and continuously keep in force financial securitypayable to the department, and setting amounts of financialsecurity to pay to New York State, by setting a total amount topay than goes from $ 2,500 per well to a maximum amount of $150,000 for over 100 wells.
Source: http://www.dec.ny.gov/regs/4466.html
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552 Permits to Drill, Deepen, Plug Back or Convert WellsThis chapter establishes specific regulations about drillingpermits, specifying the process for applying to the permit, andspecifying that starting operations without a permit will beconsidered as operating outside the law. The chapter alsoincludes rules about applications fees, issuance of permit,reissuance of permit, and permit in mining areas to personshaving mining operations or mining rights and under othercircumstances it may apply.
Source: http://www.dec.ny.gov/regs/4465.html
553 Well Spacing
This chapter emphasizes in requirements for well spacing as, forexample, minimum spaces between wells, minimum space
between property boundary and the well, and minimum spacingbetween different types of private and public facilities and thewell with some exceptions.
Source: http://www.dec.ny.gov/regs/4464.html
554 Drilling Practices and Reports
This chapter has the specific regulations, requirements andprohibitions regarding prevention of pollution from drilling wellsoperation. Other rules specified include the commencement of
operations, the cable tool drilling practices, the rotary tooldrilling practices, the deviation, the multiple completion, thecompletion reports, well logs and samples and other minorrequirements.
Source: http://www.dec.ny.gov/regs/4463.html
555 Plugging and Abandonments
A general policy guides the rules and requirements stipulated in
this chapter. The policy emphasizes that it would be unlawful toabandon any well, wells or lease without having pluggedabandoned such well or wells and effected surface restoration inthe manner prescribed in the chapter.The rest of the chapter specifies rules and detailed requirementsabout shut-in wells, temporary abandonment, permanentabandonment, plugging methods and the conversion to freshwater wells.
Source: http://www.dec.ny.gov/regs/4462.html
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556 Operating Practices
This chapter establishes practices for oil and gas wells strictly.Specifying requirements for the operation of the wells, forvacuum pumps, rules for safety assurance, requirements forpollution disposal, rules for the lease of the well, andrequirements for pool and field names.
Source: http://www.dec.ny.gov/regs/4461.html
557 Secondary Recovery and Pressure Maintenance
This chapter requires submitting a specific application before theoperator or anybody intent to initiate a secondary recovery or apressure maintenance operation. This chapter also requires theoperator to implement the necessary measures to assure that
the casing program will prevent migration, leakage or damage tooil, gas, or fresh potable water reservoirs.Other dispositions include the requirements for commencementand cessation of operation as well as records of the volumes offluids and injection pressures which must be included in anannual report.
Source: http://www.dec.ny.gov/regs/4460.html
558 Transportation
This charter establishes requirements for pipelines, specificallythe conditions for suspension or abandon of pipeline usage.Source: http://www.dec.ny.gov/regs/4459.html
559 "Bass Island" Regulations
This chapter specifies requirements only regarding Bass IslandwellsSource: http://www.dec.ny.gov/regs/4456.html
Appendix VI: Natural Gas Reserves Marcellus
Shale/Broome County
Assumptions:
Area:
Minimum Area of Marcellus Shale: 54,000 square miles
Maximum Area of Marcellus Shale: 95,000 square miles
Total Land Area of Broome County: 707 square miles
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*Only about 70% of total area can be used for reason including highly
populated towns, conservation, schools, etc.
Gas Production:
Minimum: 0.5 BCF per 80 acres
Maximum: 2.5 BCF per 80 acres
Equations:
Minimum = ((Total Area x 0.70) x 0.5 BCF)/80 Acres
Maximum = ((Total Area x 0.70) x 2.5 BCF)/80 Acres
Appendix VII: Broome County Natural Gas Consumption
* Data only available for NYS
Population of Broome County: 195, 018 (US Census)
Population of New York State: 19, 541,453 (US Census)
Ratio: 0.00997971
Table 1. Natural Gas Consumption in New York and Broome
County, NY
Sector NY (TBtu) Broome (TBtu)Residential 402.6 4.018Commercial 299.6 2.990
Industrial 84.8 0.846
Transportation 19.4 0.194Electric Generation 402.9 4.021
TOTAL 1209.3 12.07
Appendix VIII: Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Data:
New York State:1
Figure 2. CO2 emissions for each fuel type in NY
Fuel Type CO2 %Coal 12Natural Gas 33Petroleum 55
Using the information above and data from Figure 1, CO2 Emissions for
Each Fuel Type was calculated.
Figure 3. CO2 emissions for NY based on sector and fuel type.
Sector Total CO2 CO2 Natural CO2 Coal CO2
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(TCF) Gas (TCF) TCF) Petroleum(TCF)
ElectricGeneration
0.582 0.278 0.260 0.0421
Residential 0.4524 0.277 0.00306 0.168Commercial 0.3348 0.211 -- 0.112Industrial 0.2076 0.0590 0.0429 0.0281Transportation
0.9756 0.0168 0 1.052
TOTAL 2.5524 0.5638 0.30596 1.4022
Figure 4. CO2 emissions for Broome County, NY based on
sector and fuel type.
Sector CO2NaturalGas (TCF)
CO2 CoalTCF)
CO2Petroleum(TCF)
ElectricGeneration
0.00277 0.00260 0.000420
Residential 0.00277 3.057 x 10-5
0.00168
Commercial 0.00210 -- 0.00112Industrial 0.000588 0.000428 0.000280Transportation
0.000168 0 0.0105
TOTAL 0.00841 0.00306 0.0140
Figure 5. NY Fuel
Natural Gas = 30%; Petroleum = 37%; Coal = 6%
Appendix IX: Economic Analysis
Data: Current Price of Natural Gas = $3.79 (Bloomberg, November 19,
2010)
Calculation of Possible Revenue:
Minimum = (Minimum TCF for Area) x $3,892,330,000/TCF
Maximum = (Maximum TCF for Area) x $3,892,330,000/TCF
Marcellus Shale:
54,000 square miles -> 151.2 TCF x $3,892,330,000/TCF =
$588,520,296,000
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-> 266 TCF x $3,892,330,000/TCF =
$2,942,601,480,000
95,000 square miles -> 266 TCF x $3,892,330,000/TCF =
$1,035,359,780,000
-> 1330 TCF x $3,892,330,000/TCF =
$5,176,798,900,000
Broome County:Minimum: 1.9796 TCF x $3,892,330,000/TCF = $7,705,256,468Maximum: 9.898 x $3,892,330,000/TCF = $38,526,282,340
NPV Calculation:Data and Assumptions:Sales Price = $3.89/mcfCost per Well = $3.5 MM
Tax = 5%Discount Rate = 10%
APPENDIX X: Chemicals used in Hydraulic Fracturing,Calculations and Assumptions
Acids
One of the principal chemicals used in Hydraulic Fracturing operations
is Hydrochloric Acid or a mixture of hydrochloric acid and acetic or
formic acid. EPA 816-R-04003.
The average amount of acid use is about 5,000 gallons (Arthur 2008
ALL Consulting). The principal use of acid is to increase treatment
distance, but it is also use for to clean the perforations of the cement
surrounding the well.
Breakers
The breakers help to degrade the fracturing fluid viscosity, which
enhances the post-fracturing fluid recovery. The most typical breakers
are acids, oxidizers, or enzymes. Some known constituents are
ammonium persulfate, ammonium sulfate, copper compounds,
ethylene glycol, and glycol ethers. (EPA 816-R-04003)
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Biocides.
The presence of bacteria in the fracturing fluid is detrimental to the
fracturing process as the bacteria secrete enzymes to breakdown the
gelling agent as part of their metabolic process. The degradation of the
gelling agent affects the viscosity of the fracturing fluid, resulting in a
poor fracturing performance. As a method to inhibit bacterial growth
biocides are use and mixed in the fluid. Most biocides are hazardous by
nature and contain polycyclic organic matter and polynuclear
hydrocarbons (PAH). The general dilute solution is composed of about
0.1 to 0.2 gallons per 1,000 gallons of water. (EPA 816-R-04003)
Friction Reducers
The most common friction reducers are latex polymers or copolymers
of acryl amides. The average concentration is about 0.25 to 2 pounds
per 1,000 gallons. (EPA 816-R-04003.)
Corrosion Inhibitors
With the corrosive agents that can attack steel, like acids, a corrosion
inhibitor is needed. Acetone is a common chemical used as corrosion
inhibitor. These chemicals are considered hazardous in their undiluted
form. The dilution concentration is of 1 gallon per 1,000 gallons. (EPA
816-R-04003.)
Proppants
The purpose of to bring structure to an open fracture and to increase
the permeability from the formation to the wellbore, in order to create
a pathway for the gas stream.
The most common proppant use in hydraulic fracturing is sand.
Different estimates of the amount of proppant used can be found, but
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the average used is a range between 10,000 and 20,000 gallons per
stage. A total from 11,000 to 25,000 pounds of proppant are placed in
the formation. (ALL Consulting 2008, and EPA 816-R-04003)
Amount of Chemicals Released in Broome County
Acid: (5,000 Gallons (acid) / 1 Well ) x 3,959 Wells= 19.796 MG
Biocides: (0.2 Gallons/1000 Gallons of Water) x (5x106 MG/1 Well) x3,959 Wells = 3.95 MG
Friction Reducer: (2 Gallons/1000 Gallons of water) x ( 5 x 106 G ofwater/1 Well) x 3,959 Wells = 39,59 MG
Corrosion Inhibitor: ( 1 Gallons/1000 Gallons of water) x ( 5 x 106 G ofwater/1 Well) x 3,959 Wells = 19.79 MG
APPENDIX XII: Greenhouse Gas Emissions from theMarcellus Debate
Figure 6. GHG Emissions (Howarth)
39
A preliminary estimate if methane leakage in unconventional gasoperations may increase the release of greenhouse gases. However,the author recognizes that the complete analysis has not beenundertaken.
The following is the opinion about this claiming from Terry Engelder,professor of the Pennsylvania State University. (Taken as a forwardedmessage from Lawrence Cathles, Cornell University to Sergio Mino)
Sergio,
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Here is the email and link from Engelder. Ive not looked at it closely.Hope it helps.Larry
From: Terry Engelder [mailto:[email protected]] Sent: Friday, April 30,
2010 12:51 PMTo: Deborah Cipolla-DennisCc: 'Michael ARTHUR';'Seamus McGraw'; 'Thomas Murphy'; Anthony R Ingraffea; Lawrence M
CathlesSubject: RE: Gas drilling yields a gusher of hogwash
Thank you for your interest, Deborah:
Question #1:
http://www.pressconnects.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?
AID=/201003280000/VIEWPOINTS/3280320
My source is one of your colleagues at Cornell. The reason that I linked
Prof. Howarths report to a discussion of disingenuous arguments by
environmentalists in the Philadelphia Inquirer is that Prof. Howarths
entire argument is based on leaking gas (fugitive emissions). Gas is
metered at the well site and at various intermediate locations on its
way to market so that leaks can be located, detected, and fixed. As
new infrastructure is built it will contain far fewer leaks than the old
infrastructure which is gradually being replaced. Fix the leaks and
Prof. Howarths other argument about climate forcing by methane
becomes irrelevant. What is left is a fuel that has half the global
warming potential as coal (Hence the statement This is simply not the
case). In fact, the stabilization of methane in the atmosphere in the
last 15 years might well be a sign that the Russians (Kings of the leaky
pipelines) are getting their collective acts together and fixing there
leaks. Remember that in a capitalistic economy, leaky pipelines mean
lost profits so there is every incentive for fixing the leaks as mankind
moves forward (to say nothing about its positive impact on global
warming).
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Question #2:
Science knows very well that the carbon footprint of burning natural
gas is less than that for coal or petroleum. There is a very famous
paper in Science (the publication) that talks about the Stabilization
Wedges (see attached). Natural gas is a substitute for coal in electrical
generating plants. Furthermore, compressed gas can replace diesel
fuel for interstate truck traffic. Large fleets of city trucks and buses are
now run on compressed natural gas. Converting interstate truck traffic
to CNG would virtually eliminate the need to import middle eastern oil
(thereby eliminating the need for a large military presence in the
region). This would reduce our imbalance of trade and focus the
remaining cash for fuel back into the USA where more cash in
circulation will create jobs (This sounds like Presidents Reagan, Bush,
Clinton, Bush, and Obama and it is true).
Worried about how much gas is present? I attach the best estimate
for how much gas can be produced from the Marcellus. These are hard
figures with which few can argue. It may also surprise you to learn
that the combined total of all potentially recoverable gas in the USA
will allow decades of supply without having to rely on imported natural
gas.
As for the article that you attached by Mrs. Barth, it was not peered
reviewed. Mrs. Barths agenda may be revealed in what Mr. Barth
wrote in the blogger shouting match that followed my InquirerCommentary. Check it out.
http://www.philly.com/inquirer/opinion/20100428_Gas_drilling_yields_a
_gusher_of_hogwash.html
Hope this helps your understanding,
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Terry
Terry Engelder
Professor of Geosciences
Department of Geosciences
334 A Deike Building
The Pennsylvania State University
University Park, PA 16802
Phone: 814-865-3620
From: Deborah Cipolla-Dennis [mailto:[email protected]] Sent:
Thursday, April 29, 2010 7:44 PMTo:[email protected]: Gas
drilling yields a gusher of hogwash
Thank you for providing your email for questions.Can you please cite
your source for the following statements:one New York academic
recently wrote that exploiting Marcellus Shale gas is comparable to
burning coal in terms of greenhouse-gas emissions. This is simply not
the case. - To my knowledge there has not been published data on
the total carbon footprint of hydrofracking. If there is, can you point me
towards it? It is a gift to the people of Pennsylvania and the greatestopportunity they will ever have to move away from foreign oil and
toward a fuel with a smaller global-warming footprint. - What is the
basis of this statement? Natural gas is not a substitute for oil. It cannot
be used as a direct substitute and as far as I know, the amount of
natural gas in the Marcellus Shale will not be enough to migrate the US
from its dependency on foreign crude oil. Again, I dont think science
has proven what the carbon footprint will be so I think it is premature
to say it will have a smaller global-warming footprint. Additionally,
there is data available to show that the economic advantage for areas
experiencing a boom is short lived and is actually less than that of a
similar region that diversifies its core businesses and grows its
economy in a slower steadier rate. Please refer to to the report cited
in this newspaper article.
http://www.pressconnects.com/article/20100401/NEWS01/4010400/Ne
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w+report+shows+natural+gas+economic+impact+will+be+minimal
Thank you and I look forward to your reply. Sincerely,Deborah Cipolla-
Dennis
APPENDIX XII: Water Usage Data and Assumptions.
Source: United States of America. New York State Department of EnvironmentalConservation. Division of Mineral Resources. Draft Supplemental GenericEnvironmental Impact Statement on the Oil, Gas and Solution Mining RegulatoryProgram: Well Permit Issuance for Horizontal Drilling and High-volume HydraulicFracturing to Develop the Marcellus Shale and Other Low-permeability GasReservoirs, September 2009. Albany, NY: New York State, Dept. of EnvironmentalConservation, Division of Mineral Resources, Bureau of Oil and Gas Regulation, 2009.
The total water available for gas drilling for the following years is 30MGD.
Water Consumption per well: Five million gallons a day. This representsthe upper limit, and is taken as a conservative value. Source:"Hydraulic Fracturing | Hydraulic Fracturing | US EPA." EPA Office ofWater Home | Water | US EPA. Web. 24 Nov. 2010.
Maximum Wells: 3,569. Calculated assuming 70% of the land area ofBroome County (707 Square miles) is available for unconventional gasdevelopment, and a well cover 80 acres.
Total water requirements: (3,569) x (5 x106 MGD)= 19,796
Total available water from the Susquehanna River Basin (SRB): 882.5MGDTotal available water from Delaware River Basin (DRB): 8,736 MGDTotal available water: (882.5 + 8736) = 9,618.5 MGD
(19,796/8,736) = 2.27 Times the water available from DRB forhydraulic fracturing.
(19,796/882.5) = 22.43 Times the water available from SRB forhydraulic fracturing.
The total water available for DRB is assumed to be in the samaproportion of the water available in the SRB. 30 MGD x 10 = 300 MGD
Total water available for both basins: 30 MGD + 300 MGD = 330 MGD
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