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Community Resilience: Critical Needs for
Community Resilience
Tim Osborn
NOAA
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TODAY
The Future Generations Face
Today
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HURRICANE ISAACAug. 26 Sept. 5, 2012
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Hurricane Ike Surge Event at
Cameron Parish, Calcasieu
Pass and
Hurricane Isaac Surge Event
at St Bernard Parish at ShellBeach and the MRGO
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Hurricane Isaac Impacts inSoutheast Louisiana
Storm surge 6 to 12 feetRainfall 10-20 inches locally higherHistoric river flooding eventTwo potential dam compromises
warnings/evacuations with eachThree tornadoes on the MS coast
including an EF-2 in Pascagoula
Over 12,000 homes flooded
including7,000 in LaPlace alone4 fatalitiesAround 1 million power outages
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Hurricane Isaac Storm Surge Flooding
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Evacuation of Entergy Utility Trucks from Port Fourchon with the Approach of Hurricane Ike- A
Category 2 Hurricane that Made Landfall in Southeast Coastal Texas
Source- Robby Wilson, Port Fourchon
Old Highway LA-1
New Elevated Causeway
of LA-1 Connecting Port
Fourchon to the New
Leeville Bridge
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South Lafourche
Levee District Levee
Southern Extent
During Hurricane Ike
South Lafourche
Flood Gate now
converted to a Lock
Flooded Homes outside
South Lafourche Levee
District Levees and
Flooded Highway LA-1
to Port Fourchon and
Grand Isle Hurricane Ike Inundation South Lafourche Parish
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NWS SLOSH storm surge model
Weak Tropical Storms at Port Fourchon
Will Inundate LA 1 to the Point of Closure- Source NWS New
Orleans Baton Rouge Category 0 Storm Surge Slosh Ouput.
Grand Isle
Port Fourchon
GallianoWater level reference to
datum - NAVD88
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Hurricane Ike Flooding Eastern Louisiana
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Caminada Headland Inundated by
Tropical System, July 2010
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Sea Level in Lousiana is Rising Relative to the
Land at a Rapid Rate
Note: The tide gauge record at Grand Isle contains components of global sea
level rise, regional oceanographic change, and regional local vertical land motion.
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NOAA OAR, 2012. Global Sea Level Rise
Scenarios for the United States National
Climate Assessment, NOAA Technical Report
OAR CPO-1, NOAA Climate Program Office,
Silver Spring, MD, December 2012, 29pp.
http://www.cpo.noaa.gov/reports/sealevel
The high scenario shows global sea level rise
by 2100 of 2.0m (about 6.5 ft.);
an intermediate high scenario of 1.2m
(about 4 ft.);
an intermediate - low scenario of 0.5m
(about 1.6 ft.);
and a low scenario of 0.2m (0.7 ft.)
http://www.cpo.noaa.gov/reports/sealevelhttp://www.cpo.noaa.gov/reports/sealevel -
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The National Climate Assessment
The National Climate Assessment (NCA) is being conducted under the authority of the Global Change Research Act (GCRA) of 1990.
The GCRA requires a report to the President and the Congress every four years that integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings of
the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The Act requires assessment of the effects of global change (both human-
induced and natural) on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation,
human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity. The time periods for analysis include current conditions as
well as projections of major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years.National climate assessments provide status reports about climate change science and impacts. They are based on observations
collected across the country as well as research that uses projections from climate system and other models. The NCA incorporates
advances in the understanding of climate science into larger social, ecological, and policy systems, and provides integrated analyses of
impacts and vulnerability.
The NCA integrates scientific information from multiple sources and highlights key findings and significant gaps in our knowledge. It also
helps the federal government prioritize climate research investments that will provide science for use by communities around the
country to plan more sustainably for our future.
http://assessment.globalchange.gov/http://assessment.globalchange.gov/ -
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Morganza Reach J-2 Alignment
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Morganza Reach J-2 Alignment
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Morganza Reach J-2 Alignment
A l i F t C t l
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Analyzing Future Coastal
Landscape Changes and
the Threats to CoastalShores, Island,
Infrastructure and
Communities
Access to Port FourchonUsing Louisiana Highway
LA-1
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Sea Level in Lousiana is Rising Relative to the
Land at a Rapid Rate
Note: The tide gauge record at Grand Isle contains components of global sea
level rise, regional oceanographic change, and regional local vertical land motion.
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Estimated Effects of RSLR on Frequency and Duration of Inundation for Leeville, LA
using observations 1987-1990 and then projecting this 4-year time period forward usingpresent rate of sea level rise
Using 5% LA-1 elevation of
0.78m NAVD88 (1993)
Occurrences of
Inundation(over 4-years)
Duration of Inundation(over 4- years)
Elevation RiseAbove 1990 MSL
4-yr Time Period
RSLR rate
mm/yr) (# of tides)
(hours (percent of total
time)) (meters)
1987- 1990 9.24 0 0 (0%) -
2027-2030 9.24 124 960(6%) 0.32047- 2050 9.24 1127 19163(55%) 0.6
2097- 2100 9.24 1334 33699(96%) 1.0
Portions of Louisiana will become increasingly inundated even if the
present day relative sea level rise (RSLR) remains constant in the future.
Note: NAVD88 elevations for bench marks and for LIDAR elevations for road surface are only estimates
and have significant uncertainty
U S D H S
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U.S.D.H.S.
performed an
Assessment of
Consequences
of Disruptionsto LA 1 in 2011.
$7.8 billion of
loss GDP is at
risk
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Climate models project acceleration in Sea Level Rise starting before
2100 due to climate change
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Source- LSU Center for Coastal Studies
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Resiliency-
CommunityTied to
Community
Tied to The
State Tied to
the Nation