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TransportationandClimateInitiative:ReducingTransportation-SectorEmissions
intheNortheast&Mid-Atlantic
KateZyla,DeputyDirectorGeorgetownClimateCenter
July12,2016
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TransportationandClimateInitiative• 11northeastandmid-AtlanticstatesandtheDistrictofColumbia
• TCIlaunched in2010
• WorkingtogethertoreduceenergyuseandGHGemissionsfromtransportation
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
GHGEm
issionsasPercento
f201
1Levels
Connecticut Delaware DistrictofColumbia Maine
Maryland Massachusetts NewHampshire NewJersey
NewYork Pennsylvania RhodeIsland Vermont
Notes:Maine“longterm”goalappliedto2050DE andPAhavenotdesignated2050goals
TCIStatesHaveSetEconomy-WideGHGReductionGoals
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TransportationistheLargestandGrowingShareofGHGEmissionsinTCIRegion
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
EmissionsasP
ercentofTCIRegionalEmissions
Transportation
Electric Power
Commercial
Residential
Industrial
IndustrialProcesses
Agriculture
Waste
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AnalysisDevelopedtoInformTCIIn2012,TCIleadersaskedtoworktogetheronmeaningfulmulti-stateemissionsreductionpolicies.• Whatareregionalemission
trends?• Whatareopportunitiesfor
GHGreductions?• Whatareeconomicimpacts
ofcleantransportationstrategies?
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ExistingFederalandStatePolicieswillAchieveSignificantReductions…
0
100
200
300
2015 2020 2025 2030
GHGEmission
s(M
MTCO2e)
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…ButWillNotPutStatesonTracktoMeetLong-TermGoals
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
GHGEmission
sasPercentof2
011Levels
ExistingFederalandStatePolicies29%reductionin2030from2011levels
Extrapolatedemissionreductionrate60%reductionin2050from2011levels
TCIStateEconomy-widegoalsconverge80%reductionin2050from1990levels
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ExistingFederalPolicieswillReduceStateTransportationFunding
($millions)
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AnalysisModeledThreeCleanTransportationInvestmentScenarios
• ModestInvestment– $1.5billionannualfunding
• ModerateInvestment– $3billionannualfunding
• AggressiveInvestment– $6billionannualfunding
InvestmentAllocationStrategy AllocationEV/alt.fuel infrastructureandincentives
20%
Urbanandintercitytransit 25%
Landuse/Smartgrowth 7.5%
Activetransportation 7.5%
TDMandEcodriving 10%
Systemoperations/Efficiency 15%
Freight/Intermodal 15%
Total 100%
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0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
GHG
Emission
sasPe
rcen
tof2
011Levels
ResultingReductionsWouldHelpStatesAchieve2050Goals
ExistingFederalandStatePolicies29%reductionin2030from2011levels
RangeofreductionsfromInvestmentScenarios31%reductionscenario39%reductionscenario
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“PolicyBundles”AnalysisCombinesInvestmentScenarioswithMarket-Based&FuelsPolicies
11
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GHGEmissionReductionPotentialfrom“PolicyBundles”
29% Reduction Existing Federal & State Policies
33% Reduction ScenarioModerate Investment +$3 Billion Pricing
38% Reduction ScenarioModerate Investment +$3 Billion Pricing + Clean Fuels
40% Reduction ScenarioAggressive Investment + $6 Billion Pricing + Clean Fuels
32% Reduction ScenarioModest Investment + $3 Billion Pricing
Percentreductionby2030from2011GHGemissionlevels:
150
200
250
2015 2020 2025 2030
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ComprehensivePolicyProceedsCouldbeUsedforTransportation
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$3BillionAnnualRegionalInvestmentProjectedtoProvideSignificantBenefits
**Range reflects low-endandhigh-endoutcomes offourmodeled scenarios
Massachusetts resultsin2030:
Impact 2030 Cumulative2015-2030
↑inRegionalEmployment(Jobs) 91,000-125,000 794,000-1,167,000
↑inGrossRegionalProduct $11.7-17.7Billion $92-144Billion
↑inDisposablePersonalIncome $9.9-14.4Billion $71-109Billion
Jobs 10,000 to15,000
GrossRegional Product $1.4 to2.3Billion
Disposable Personal Income $1.1to$1.7Billion
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ReducingCarbonPollutionCreatesOtherBenefits
• AssociatedreductioninothercriteriapollutantslikePM,NOx,etc.
• Improvedairqualityresultsinfewerprematuredeathsandthousandsofasthmacases
– Publichealthbenefitsvaluedat$152-463millionin2030
• Reducedvehicletravelwouldalsoresultinfeweraccidents,reducedwearonroadsandbridges
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Implications for RGGI Program Review
• Howmuchshould/cantransportation-sectoremissionsreductionscontributetoeconomy-widegoals?
– Inwhattimeframe?
• Increasingelectrificationofvehiclesmeansshiftofemissions(andload)fromliquidfuelstopowersector
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States’ Announcement
• InlateNovember,Connecticut,Delaware,theDistrictofColumbia,NewYork,RhodeIslandandVermontannouncedthattheywillworktogethertodeveloppotentialmarket-basedpoliciestoachievesubstantialreductionsinGHGemissionsfromthetransportationsector.
• ThroughTCI,representativesfromthesestateshavebegunmeetingtodiscussoptionsandexamplesformarket-basedpoliciesforthetransportationsector.
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Thank YouForinquiries,pleasecontact
KateZyla202-661-6558
ReportisavailableonGeorgetownClimateCenterwebsite:http://www.georgetownclimate.org
• Reportmaterials: http://www.georgetownclimate.org/reducing-greenhouse-gas-emissions-from-transportation-opportunities-in-the-northeast-and-mid-atlanti