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UNICEF supply update for OPV
9th WHO/UNICEF Consultation with OPV/IPV Manufacturers and NRAs
UNICEF Supply Division2nd December 2010Geneva
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Vaccine Security and provision of OPV
Vaccine Security – that is sustained and uninterrupted supply of affordable polio vaccine of assured quality – has been and will continue to be a key objective for UNICEF procurement.
The conditions and premise for ensuring Vaccine Security are complex as the programme recommendation moves with refined tools from massive campaign requirements, to targeted products – and eventually cessation after Certification.
UNICEF and WHO believes that the key to ensure polio vaccine security is a continued dialog with the vaccine manufacturers oncurrent short term demand and supply planning, as well as current information sharing on strategic decision concerning the Programme and the general vaccine production.
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> 100 m doses
50-100 m doses
20- 50 m doses
5-20 m doses
< 10 m doses
In 2010 (YTD), UNICEF has procured over 1.9 billion doses OPV, with value of $279 m, for delivery to 70 countries for routine immunization and SIAs~90% of procurement has been to for SIAs
India: 529,430,500 doses
Nigeria: 335,770,000 doses
Pakistan:283,525,800 doses
Afghanistan:74,576,000 doses
Sudan:55,654,000 doses
Bangladesh:41,780,000 doses
Mali33,563,000 doses
Burkina Faso39,626,000 doses
DR Congo:59,453,000 dosesAngola:
36,816,000 doses
*Data as of 24 November 2010, based on order placement date
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LTA Utilisation for 2010
637,829,400
712,953,500
440,969,100
25,796,500
38,160,600
26,914,000
198,030,900
68,203,500
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
tOPV
bOPV
mOPV1
mOPV3
PO placed
Forecast
Released to GOI
Unutilised
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Monthly Overview of OPV Supply in 2010
By OPV type
‐
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Millions Doses
bOPV
mOPV3
mOPV1
tOPV ‐ 20 doses
tOPV ‐ 10 doses
By Supplier
‐
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Millions Doses
Predominantly bOPV & tOPV Uniform distribution between Suppliers
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OPV – Supply & Demand for 2011
Based on original demand in the tender, 60 million doses of bOPV has been left unawarded for 2011
-10,000
40,000
90,000
140,000
190,000
29-Nov
13-Dec
27-Dec
10-Jan
24-Jan
07-Feb
21-Feb
07-Mar
21-Mar
04-Apr
18-Apr
02-May
16-May
30-May
13-Jun
27-Jun
11-Jul
25-Jul
08-Aug
22-Aug
05-Sep
19-Sep
03-Oct
17-Oct
31-Oct
14-Nov
28-Nov
12-Dec
26-Dec
SIA Routine OPV Availability
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tOPV – Supply & Demand• Availability of tOPV to be tight but manageable throughout the first
half of 2011.
• Any changes in availability from manufacturers or unplanned/changes in demand for SIAs will have a significant effect on overall availability of tOPV.
• Currently building up stocks of tOPV to meet the substantial requirements expected in first quarter of 2011.
• During the first quarter of 2011, expect to have a global shortage of WHO pre-qualified tOPV when factoring in requirements from Government of India (based on offers to UNICEF).
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0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
29-Nov
13-Dec
27-Dec
10-Jan
24-Jan
07-Feb
21-Feb
07-Mar
21-Mar
04-Apr
18-Apr
02-May
16-May
30-May
13-Jun
27-Jun
SIA Routine OPV Availability
tOPV – Supply & Demand (through first half 2011)
*Planned activities and supply availability as of 1st December 2010 Note: 20 m doses is considered a minimum stock level to be able to respond to emergency requests
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bOPV – Supply & Demand
• Availability of bOPV to be very tight throughout the first half of 2011.
• Currently four WHO pre-qualified products• GSK, Panacea, Haffkine & Bio Farma• Three of these rely on bulk from Bio Farma• Additional products expected to be pre-qualified during 2011• Only one product is licensed in each of the endemic countries (except
India which has two).
• Supply continues to be extremely tight with product being shipped as soon as released by NRAs which has prevented manufactures from establishing any buffer stock.
• Any changes in supply or unplanned demand from SIAs / outbreak response will have a significant effect on overall availability of bOPV.
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0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
29-Nov
13-Dec
27-Dec
10-Jan
24-Jan
07-Feb
21-Feb
07-Mar
21-Mar
04-Apr
18-Apr
02-May
16-May
30-May
13-Jun
27-Jun
SIA OPV Availability
bOPV – Supply & Demand (through first half 2011)
Note: 20 m doses is considered a minimum stock level to be able to respond to emergency requests
Planned activities and supply availability as of 1st December 2010
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mOPV1 / mOPV3 – Supply & Demand
• Due to production lead-times, manufacturers produced vaccine based on programmatic forecasts.
• However, rapid change in demand since introduction of bOPV, resulting in almost no demand for planned campaigns.
• Products now only used in response to outbreaks or for SIAs when neither bOPV nor tOPV are available.
• Manufacturers holding stocks with varying shelf lives (currently 6 -18 months).
• Feedback from suppliers: less willing to take risk to produce mOPVs• Planning for additional quantities will require close coordination with the Programme
• Longer lead times based on confirmed demand (approx. 6 months)
• Less flexibility to meet unplanned Programme requirements (outbreak response for mop ups)
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mOPV1 / mOPV3 – Supply & Demand (through first half 2011)
mOPV1 Graph mOPV3 Graph
*Planned activities and supply availability as of 1st December 2010
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
29-Nov
13-Dec
27-Dec
10-Jan
24-Jan
07-Feb
21-Feb
07-Mar
21-Mar
04-Apr
18-Apr
02-May
16-May
30-May
13-Jun
27-Jun
SIA OPV Availability
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
29-Nov
13-Dec
27-Dec
10-Jan
24-Jan
07-Feb
21-Feb
07-Mar
21-Mar
04-Apr
18-Apr
02-May
16-May
30-May
13-Jun
27-Jun
SIA OPV Availability
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OPV Supply & Weighted Average Price (WAP) 2000 to 2012
In 2010, UNICEF OPV tender concluded, securing supply and reduction in Weighted Average Price for 2011-2012
WAP/dose 2010 2011 % ReductiontOPV - 20 0.147 0.1294 12.0%bOPV 0.151 0.1316 12.8%mOPV1 0.132 0.1134 14.1%mOPV3 0.133 0.1252 5.9%Total OPV 0.144 0.1284 10.8%
Lower WAPs contribute to a significant savings to countries and the GPEI over the two year period
‐
0.020
0.040
0.060
0.080
0.100
0.120
0.140
0.160
0.180
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
US$ P
rice pe
r Dose
Million
s Doses
tOPV mOPV1 mOPV3 bOPV WAP
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UNICEF has 1,188,000,000 doses of OPV on contact for delivery during the period.
Final split between OPV type for 2012 will be made to suppliers in mid-2011.
*As Govt of India is moving to self-procurement, award quantities do not include demand for India SIAs (approx. 1 billion doses / year).
OPV Awards for 2011
Summary of OPV Awards for 2011-2012
Doses WAP per dose No. Of SupplierstOPV 20 470,000,000 $0.1294 5bOPV 484,000,000 $0.1316 3mOPV1 121,000,000 $0.1134 5mOPV3 52,000,000 $0.1252 2tOPV 10 60,000,000 $0.1734 3Total OPV 1,187,000,000 $0.1284
OPV Awards for 2012
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UNICEF Polio Tender Plans for 2011
• Polio Stockpile tender• Evaluation ongoing
• OPV requirements • Mid 2011: revert to manufacturer with OPV type requirements
for 2012
• IPV Requirements.• Tender expected to be issued during first quarter for approx.
500,000 doses• Additional IPV – depending on programmatic requirements
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Thank you