UNICEF supply update for OPV

9th WHO/UNICEF Consultation with OPV/IPV Manufacturers and NRAs

UNICEF Supply Division2nd December 2010Geneva

Vaccine Security and provision of OPV

Vaccine Security – that is sustained and uninterrupted supply of affordable polio vaccine of assured quality – has been and will continue to be a key objective for UNICEF procurement.

The conditions and premise for ensuring Vaccine Security are complex as the programme recommendation moves with refined tools from massive campaign requirements, to targeted products – and eventually cessation after Certification.

UNICEF and WHO believes that the key to ensure polio vaccine security is a continued dialog with the vaccine manufacturers oncurrent short term demand and supply planning, as well as current information sharing on strategic decision concerning the Programme and the general vaccine production.

> 100 m doses

50-100 m doses

20- 50 m doses

5-20 m doses

< 10 m doses

In 2010 (YTD), UNICEF has procured over 1.9 billion doses OPV, with value of $279 m, for delivery to 70 countries for routine immunization and SIAs~90% of procurement has been to for SIAs

India: 529,430,500 doses

Nigeria: 335,770,000 doses

Pakistan:283,525,800 doses

Afghanistan:74,576,000 doses

Sudan:55,654,000 doses

Bangladesh:41,780,000 doses

Mali33,563,000 doses

Burkina Faso39,626,000 doses

DR Congo:59,453,000 dosesAngola:

36,816,000 doses

*Data as of 24 November 2010, based on order placement date

LTA Utilisation for 2010

637,829,400 

712,953,500 

440,969,100 

25,796,500 

38,160,600 

26,914,000 

198,030,900 

68,203,500 

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

tOPV

bOPV

mOPV1

mOPV3

PO placed

Forecast

Released to GOI

Unutilised

Monthly Overview of OPV Supply in 2010

By OPV type

‐

50 

100 

150 

200 

250 

300 

350 

400 

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Millions Doses

bOPV

mOPV3

mOPV1

tOPV ‐ 20 doses

tOPV ‐ 10 doses

By Supplier

‐

50 

100 

150 

200 

250 

300 

350 

400 

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Millions Doses

Predominantly bOPV & tOPV Uniform distribution between Suppliers

OPV – Supply & Demand for 2011

Based on original demand in the tender, 60 million doses of bOPV has been left unawarded for 2011

-10,000

40,000

90,000

140,000

190,000

29-Nov

13-Dec

27-Dec

10-Jan

24-Jan

07-Feb

21-Feb

07-Mar

21-Mar

04-Apr

18-Apr

02-May

16-May

30-May

13-Jun

27-Jun

11-Jul

25-Jul

08-Aug

22-Aug

05-Sep

19-Sep

03-Oct

17-Oct

31-Oct

14-Nov

28-Nov

12-Dec

26-Dec

SIA Routine OPV Availability

tOPV – Supply & Demand• Availability of tOPV to be tight but manageable throughout the first

half of 2011.

• Any changes in availability from manufacturers or unplanned/changes in demand for SIAs will have a significant effect on overall availability of tOPV.

• Currently building up stocks of tOPV to meet the substantial requirements expected in first quarter of 2011.

• During the first quarter of 2011, expect to have a global shortage of WHO pre-qualified tOPV when factoring in requirements from Government of India (based on offers to UNICEF).

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

29-Nov

13-Dec

27-Dec

10-Jan

24-Jan

07-Feb

21-Feb

07-Mar

21-Mar

04-Apr

18-Apr

02-May

16-May

30-May

13-Jun

27-Jun

SIA Routine OPV Availability

tOPV – Supply & Demand (through first half 2011)

*Planned activities and supply availability as of 1st December 2010 Note: 20 m doses is considered a minimum stock level to be able to respond to emergency requests

bOPV – Supply & Demand

• Availability of bOPV to be very tight throughout the first half of 2011.

• Currently four WHO pre-qualified products• GSK, Panacea, Haffkine & Bio Farma• Three of these rely on bulk from Bio Farma• Additional products expected to be pre-qualified during 2011• Only one product is licensed in each of the endemic countries (except

India which has two).

• Supply continues to be extremely tight with product being shipped as soon as released by NRAs which has prevented manufactures from establishing any buffer stock.

• Any changes in supply or unplanned demand from SIAs / outbreak response will have a significant effect on overall availability of bOPV.

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

29-Nov

13-Dec

27-Dec

10-Jan

24-Jan

07-Feb

21-Feb

07-Mar

21-Mar

04-Apr

18-Apr

02-May

16-May

30-May

13-Jun

27-Jun

SIA OPV Availability

bOPV – Supply & Demand (through first half 2011)

Note: 20 m doses is considered a minimum stock level to be able to respond to emergency requests

Planned activities and supply availability as of 1st December 2010

mOPV1 / mOPV3 – Supply & Demand

• Due to production lead-times, manufacturers produced vaccine based on programmatic forecasts.

• However, rapid change in demand since introduction of bOPV, resulting in almost no demand for planned campaigns.

• Products now only used in response to outbreaks or for SIAs when neither bOPV nor tOPV are available.

• Manufacturers holding stocks with varying shelf lives (currently 6 -18 months).

• Feedback from suppliers: less willing to take risk to produce mOPVs• Planning for additional quantities will require close coordination with the Programme

• Longer lead times based on confirmed demand (approx. 6 months)

• Less flexibility to meet unplanned Programme requirements (outbreak response for mop ups)

mOPV1 / mOPV3 – Supply & Demand (through first half 2011)

mOPV1 Graph mOPV3 Graph

*Planned activities and supply availability as of 1st December 2010

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

29-Nov

13-Dec

27-Dec

10-Jan

24-Jan

07-Feb

21-Feb

07-Mar

21-Mar

04-Apr

18-Apr

02-May

16-May

30-May

13-Jun

27-Jun

SIA OPV Availability

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

29-Nov

13-Dec

27-Dec

10-Jan

24-Jan

07-Feb

21-Feb

07-Mar

21-Mar

04-Apr

18-Apr

02-May

16-May

30-May

13-Jun

27-Jun

SIA OPV Availability

OPV Supply & Weighted Average Price (WAP) 2000 to 2012

In 2010, UNICEF OPV tender concluded, securing supply and reduction in Weighted Average Price for 2011-2012

WAP/dose 2010 2011 % ReductiontOPV - 20 0.147 0.1294 12.0%bOPV 0.151 0.1316 12.8%mOPV1 0.132 0.1134 14.1%mOPV3 0.133 0.1252 5.9%Total OPV 0.144 0.1284 10.8%

Lower WAPs contribute to a significant savings to countries and the GPEI over the two year period

‐

0.020 

0.040 

0.060 

0.080 

0.100 

0.120 

0.140 

0.160 

0.180 

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

US$ P

rice pe

r Dose

Million

s Doses

tOPV mOPV1 mOPV3 bOPV WAP

UNICEF has 1,188,000,000 doses of OPV on contact for delivery during the period.

Final split between OPV type for 2012 will be made to suppliers in mid-2011.

*As Govt of India is moving to self-procurement, award quantities do not include demand for India SIAs (approx. 1 billion doses / year).

OPV Awards for 2011

Summary of OPV Awards for 2011-2012

Doses WAP per dose No. Of SupplierstOPV 20 470,000,000 $0.1294 5bOPV 484,000,000 $0.1316 3mOPV1 121,000,000 $0.1134 5mOPV3 52,000,000 $0.1252 2tOPV 10 60,000,000 $0.1734 3Total OPV 1,187,000,000 $0.1284

OPV Awards for 2012

UNICEF Polio Tender Plans for 2011

• Polio Stockpile tender• Evaluation ongoing

• OPV requirements • Mid 2011: revert to manufacturer with OPV type requirements

for 2012

• IPV Requirements.• Tender expected to be issued during first quarter for approx.

500,000 doses• Additional IPV – depending on programmatic requirements

Thank you