What's new and what's special?
The televised debates in the 2002 German election campaign
Marcus Maurer & Carsten Reinemann,U of Mainz, Germany
What was new in the 2002 German debates?
• Number of debates: Two debates
• Timing: 4 and 2 weeks before election day
• Length: 75 and 85 minutes
• Participants: Only two candidates
• Setting: Candidates standing, strict rules
Marcus Maurer & Carsten Reinemann, U of Mainz, Germany
Why are TV debates different from other forms of campaign communications?
• Audience size: Bigger audience than all other events
• Audience structure: Also undecided voters and opposing party
• "Free" format: Possibility to argue, not only sound-bites
• Confronting the opponent: Only format of direct interaction
• They generate large amounts of pre- and post-debate coverage(that also reaches those not watching the debate)
Marcus Maurer & Carsten Reinemann, U of Mainz, Germany
What are the effects of TV debates?
• During debate: Immediate reactions
• Post-debate: - Perceived "Winner" of the debate - Opinions about the candidates
- Knowledge (e.g. about the state of the country)
- Perceived winner of the coming election
- Importance of candidates for voting decisions - Voting intentions
• Post-debate media coverage: see the above
Marcus Maurer & Carsten Reinemann, U of Mainz, Germany
Short-term effects:Immediate reactions during the debate
(CRM)
Marcus Maurer & Carsten Reinemann, U of Mainz, Germany
7
Viewers’ evaluations of the candidates during the debateMean of means of supporters of incumbent parties, opposition and undecided voters
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
20:3
3:10
20:3
6:27
20:3
9:43
20:4
3:00
20:4
6:17
20:4
9:34
20:5
2:50
20:5
6:07
20:5
9:24
21:0
2:41
21:0
5:58
21:0
9:15
21:1
2:31
21:1
5:48
21:1
9:05
21:2
2:22
21:2
5:40
21:2
8:57
21:3
2:13
21:3
5:30
21:3
8:47
21:4
2:04
21:4
5:20
21:4
8:37
21:5
1:54
21:5
5:11
21:5
8:28
Schröderevaluated
better
Stoiberevaluated
better
Marcus Maurer & Carsten Reinemann, U of Mainz, Germany
8
What are the effects of …
- Specific statements about candidates’ views and political plans.
- Statements mentioning facts and figures (e.g. number of unemployed, economic situation)
Marcus Maurer & Carsten Reinemann, U of Mainz, Germany
9
Statements polarizing the political campsMean CRM-score of supporters of incumbent parties and opposition
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
20:3
3:10
20:3
5:37
20:3
8:05
20:4
0:33
20:4
3:00
20:4
5:28
20:4
7:55
20:5
0:23
20:5
2:50
20:5
5:18
20:5
7:45
21:0
0:13
21:0
2:41
21:0
5:08
21:0
7:36
21:1
0:04
21:1
2:31
21:1
4:59
21:1
7:27
21:1
9:54
21:2
2:22
21:2
4:50
21:2
7:18
21:2
9:46
21:3
2:13
21:3
4:41
21:3
7:09
21:3
9:36
21:4
2:04
21:4
4:31
21:4
6:59
21:4
9:26
21:5
1:54
21:5
4:22
21:5
6:49
Stoiberevaluated better
Schröderevaluated better
Supporters of the opposition (CDU/CSU and FDP)
Supporters of the incumbent parties (SPD and B90/Green Party)
1 2 3 45
6 7
89
10 11
12 13
Marcus Maurer & Carsten Reinemann, U of Mainz, Germany
10
What are the effects of …
- Statements arousing emotions
- Commonplaces
Marcus Maurer & Carsten Reinemann, U of Mainz, Germany
11
Example: Emotionalizing a non-emotional issueMean CRM of means of supporters of incumbent parties, opposition and undecided voters
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
21:2
4:21
21:2
4:32
21:2
4:43
21:2
4:55
21:2
5:06
21:2
5:17
21:2
5:28
21:2
5:40
21:2
5:51
21:2
6:02
21:2
6:13
21:2
6:25
21:2
6:36
21:2
6:47
21:2
6:58
21:2
7:10
21:2
7:21
21:2
7:32
21:2
7:43
21:2
7:55
21:2
8:06
21:2
8:17
21:2
8:28
21:2
8:40
21:2
8:51
21:2
9:02
21:2
9:13
21:2
9:25
21:2
9:36
21:2
9:47
Schröder speaking
"I received my degrees through evening classes"
"As my upbringing wasn’t privileged, I was lucky that I had the chance to make my secondary school exams."
Stoiber speaking
Schroederevaluated better
Stoiberevaluated better
Marcus Maurer & Carsten Reinemann, U of Mainz, Germany
Longer-term effects:Debate-induced opinion changes
pre-debate – post-debate(Panel-Analysis)
Marcus Maurer & Carsten Reinemann, U of Mainz, Germany
13
Changes of viewers' opinions about the candidates
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
More positive opinion (%)
More negative opinion (%)
Schröder Stoiber
Percentage of participants
20
3
17
19
Marcus Maurer & Carsten Reinemann, U of Mainz, Germany
14
Changes of the certainty of voting decisions
10
10
Marcus Maurer & Carsten Reinemann, U of Mainz, Germany
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
more certainless certain
Percentage of participants
15
Changes of the assessment of the state of the labour market
Marcus Maurer & Carsten Reinemann, U of Mainz, Germany
Long-term effects:Opinion changes
immediately after the debate – five days after the debate
Marcus Maurer & Carsten Reinemann, U of Mainz, Germany
Marcus Maurer & Carsten Reinemann, U of Mainz, Germany
0
25
50
75
100
125
150 Statements
26/8
27/8
28/8
30/8
31/8 2/
93/
95/
96/
97/
99/
910
/911
/912
/913
/914
/916
/917
/918
/919
/920
/921
/9 29
/8 4/9
1. TV-debate 2. TV-debate
Lastparliamentary
debate
Number of statements
Post-debate coverage: Focusing on the candidatesNumber of evaluative statements about the candidates
four weeks prior to the election in four national newspapers (50% sample)
18
Changes of perceptions of who won the debate
Marcus Maurer & Carsten Reinemann, U of Mainz, Germany