televised debates in germany and the uk
TRANSCRIPT
University of Essex, September 11th, 2010
Prof. Thorsten Faas Prof. Dr. Jürgen MaierUniversity of Mannheim University of Koblenz-Landau
E-Mail: [email protected]
Yet Another Miniature Campaign. The 2009 German und the UK 2010 Televised Debate in Perspective.
Some preliminary remarksI
II
III Perception
Exposure
IV Effects
2THE AGE OF TELEVISED DEBATES
• USA– 1960 Kennedy – Nixon – Ever since 1976
• Germany– US-style debates in 2002, 2005 and 2009– “institutionalization”
• UK– 2010
3SIGNIFICANCE
• Most important single events in the course of a campaign
• „Miniature Campaigns“- Extremely condensed- Major issues are discussed by major players all within
60-120 minutes.
4WIN-WIN-WIN-WIN-SITUATION
• Candidates ... – Unique opportunity to reach a (huge) audience
• Media:– Televised debates perfectly fit to today's default type of
campaign coverage – horse-race journalism
• Voters? – How do voters „use“ debates?
• Researchers?– Perfectly suited to study (mini) campaign and their effects– Exposure, perceptions, effects
5SURVEY DATA
• Election Study 2002• RCS 2005• German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES) 2010 /
Cross-Section Post-Election
• BES Post-Election 2010
6
June
Cross sections and panel
2002+2005
Election2009
July August September October November
4: Campaign media content analysis
3: Short-term campaign panel
2: RCS with post-election panel wave
5: TV debate analysis
1: Pre-electioncross section
1: Post-election cross section
6: Candidate survey
7: Post-electionlong-term panel
7: Pre-electionlong-term panel
8: Long-term
tracking
9: Long-term media and event analysis
December
Panel 2013+2017
8: Long-term
trackingX: Pre-election online-trackingand multi-level-panel (GESIS and
Uni Frankfurt)
May
German Longitudinal Election Study
7Research Design (n=440)
Right afterdebatePrior to debate
Pre-DebateCoverage
InstantAnalysis
During debate
Debate
A few daysafter debate
Post-DebateCoverage
After ElectionDay
Pretest Questionnaire
Posttest IQuestionnaire
Real-TimeResponse
Measurement(RTR)
Posttest IIQuestionnaire
Posttest IIIQuestionnaire
Pretest Questionnaire
Posttest IQuestionnaireMovie Posttest II
QuestionnairePosttest III
Questionnaire
Con
tent
Anal
ysis
Trea
tmen
tC
ontro
lGro
up
8Measuring Real-Time Responses
Some preliminary remarksI
II
III Perception
Exposure
IV Effects
10EXPOSURE
• Are the debates still blockbusters?
• Are televised debates the „great equalizer“?
11EXPOSURE
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Germany 2005 Germany 2009 UK 2010
„„AnyAny““
12EXPOSURE BY GENDER
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Germany 2005 Germany 2009 UK 2010
Total Male Female
13EXPOSURE BY AGE
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Germany 2005 Germany 2009 UK 2010
Total -29 -44 -59 60+
14EXPOSURE BY INTEREST IN POLITICS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Germany 2005 Germany 2009 UK 2010
Total None Low Medium High Very high
Some preliminary remarksI
II
III Perception
Exposure
IV Effects
16RTR-RESULTS
Advantage Steinmeier
Advantage Merkel„We need rules for the global financialmarkets and we also need an export of
the principles of our social marketeconomy“
„We have to stop this downward spirale of wages. ... If you work the whole day, you
have to earn enough to have a decent life“
Some preliminary remarksI
II
III Perception
Exposure
IV Effects
18EFFECTS
• Do debates have the power to mobilize?
• If so, which segments of the electorate?
19TURNOUT BY EXPOSURE AND INTEREST
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Low Medium High
Seen debate Not seen debate
GERMANY 2009
20TURNOUT BY EXPOSURE AND INTEREST
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Low Medium High
Seen debate Not seen debate
UK 2010
21TURNOUT BY EXPOSURE AND INTEREST
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Low Medium High
Seen debate Not seen debate
UK 2010
Findings are very robust: significant interaction terms
in multivariate models!
22RELATED FINDINGS FROM GERMANY
• People with a lower level of interest in politics...– ... find debates more helpful (subjectively)– ... learn relatively more from debates(objectively)