Download - WP5.3 Model Simulations Sehoul
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7/31/2019 WP5.3 Model Simulations Sehoul
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Wf`mvo/ Imxmggm
Wzvjt wdzf jfzadow
Z`f Wf`mvo [oazfav dw omgazfj hfzrffe z`f `db`rat lxmi Xahaz zm Lfw de z`f emxz`/ aej z`f Bxmv Xd|fx de z`fwmvz`% Dz dw a {axz ml z`f moj Azoaezdg Ifwfza%
Gmmxjdeazfw3Oazdzvjf3 776: E
Omebdzvjf3
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7/31/2019 WP5.3 Model Simulations Sehoul
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Wf`mvo/ Imxmggm
Hawfodef Wgfeaxdm
[FWFXA hawfodef xve
Z`f hawfodef wgfeaxdm w`mrw z`az wmdo fxmwdme xdwn dw
`db`fwz me z`f wzff{ `doowom{fw aomeb z`f xd|fxw z`az
jdwwfgz mx odidz z`f axfa de a {xfjmideaezot emxz`rfwz)
wmvz`fawz jdxfgzdme% Z`f {oazfavw/ lmx z`f oaxbfx {axz
lmxfwzfj/ wzaej mvz aw omr fxmwdme axfaw% Hdmiaww
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lmx lmxfwz axfaw aej omrfwz |aovfw lmx axahof oaej% Lmx
lmxfwzw/ z`f hdmiaww dw xfoazd|fot omr jvf zm `db`
aimvez ml bxasdeb% Lmx axahof oaej/ z`f axfaw rdz` wzff{
wom{fw aej w`aoomr wmdow axf ivg` ofww {xmjvgzd|f z`ae
aoov|dao axfaw%
Wmdo fxmwdme
Wmdo fxmwdme
Hdmiaww {xmjvgzdme
Hdmiaww {xmjvgzdme
Oaejlmxiw
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7/31/2019 WP5.3 Model Simulations Sehoul
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Wf`mvo/ Imxmggm
Zfg`emombt Wgfeaxdm3
[xmzfgzdme ml {awzvxfw allfgzfj ht bvoodfw aej xdoow/ ht lfegdeb aej z`f
{oaezazdme ml lmjjfx w`xvhw (azxd{ofp$(IMX16$ Z`f de|fwzifez gmwzw lmx azxd{ofp {oaezazdme aimvez
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awwfwwfj ht a gme|fxwdme lagzmx ml 76& (rdz`mvz gawf$
aej 6
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Hdm{`twdgao di{agz3 degxfawf de hdmiaww
Fgmemidg |dahdodzt
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Hdmiaww degxfawf [fxgfezabf hdmiaww degxfawf
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7/31/2019 WP5.3 Model Simulations Sehoul
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Wf`mvo/ Imxmggm
Zfg`emombt Wgfeaxdm3
Ivog`deb (lfegdeb$ aej gvozd|azdme zfg`edqvfw (gme|fezdmeao zdooabf )
IMX 1
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Hdm{`twdgao di{agz3 degxfawf de hdmiaww
Fgmemidg |dahdodzt
Efz {xfwfez |aovf ( 1; tfaxw$3 Ivog` meot (IMX1
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7/31/2019 WP5.3 Model Simulations Sehoul
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Wf`mvo/ Imxmggm
[modgt Wgfeaxdm3
Wvhwdjdwdeb z`f {xmzfgzdme ml {awzvxfw allfgzfj ht bvoodfw (IMX16$
Az a zdif `mxdsme ml 1; tfaxw/ lfegdeb aej {oaezdeb
azxd{ofp dw emz {xmldzahof% Oaej vwfxw axf veodnfot zm radz
omebfx lmx hfefldzw zm aggxvf% @fegf gmwzw ml z`f
zfg`emombt effj zm hf xfjvgfj% Z`dw dw {mwwdhof z`xmvb`
a wvhwdjt aej-mx gmmxjdeazdeb z`f wgaof ml
di{ofifezazdme r`dg` rdoo xfjvgf {fx axfa vedz gmwz% A
wvhwdjt gmvoj hf {axz ml a {atifez lmx fgmwtwzfi
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z`dw wgfeaxdm a gmwz xfjvgzdme fqvao zm 6;& ml z`f
de|fwzifez gmwzw dw fp{omxfj%
6;&
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7/31/2019 WP5.3 Model Simulations Sehoul
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Wf`mvo/ Imxmggm
[modgt Wgfeaxdm3
[xm`dhdzdeb od|fwzmgn wzvhhof bxasdeb (IMX1
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Gmwz)fllfgzd|fefww dejdgazmxw3
Rdz`mvz a effj lmx lfegdeb/ z`f zfg`emombt (IMX1
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7/31/2019 WP5.3 Model Simulations Sehoul
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Wf`mvo/ Imxmggm
Ajm{zdme Wgfeaxdm3
Lfegdeb aej azxd{ofp (IMX16$/ Ivog`deb (IMX 1
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7/31/2019 WP5.3 Model Simulations Sehoul
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Wf`mvo/ Imxmggm
Bomhao Wgfeaxdm3
Lmmj {xmjvgzdme
Z`f lmmj {xmjvgzdme wgfeaxdm wfofgzw z`f zfg`emombt
rdz` z`f `db`fwz abxdgvozvxao {xmjvgzd|dzt (hdmiaww$
lmx fag` gfoo r`fxf a `db`fx {xmjvgzd|dzt z`ae de z`f
hawfodef wgfeaxdm dw ag`df|fj% Z`f di{ofifezazdme
gmwzw lmx z`f zmzao wzvjt axfa axf gaogvoazfj aej gmwz)
{xmjvgzd|dzt xfoazdmew awwfwwfj% Zm lagdodzazf
gmi{axdwme hfzrffe jdllfxfez wzvjt wdzfw/ aoo gmwzw
axf fp{xfwwfj de Fvxm%
.260 nb-`a
.0:1 nb-de`ahdzaez
Wgm{f lmx degxfawfj {xmjvgzdme
Tdfoj degxfawf [fxgfezabf tdfoj degxfawf
Hdm{`twdgao di{agz3 tdfoj degxfawf
Tdfoj degxfawf de 44 & ml a{{odgahof axfa A|fxabf ahwmovzf tdfoj degxfawf3 260 nb-`a A|fxabf tdfoj degxfawf3 101 &Fgmemidg dejdgazmxw
A|fxabf gmwzw3
De|fwzifez gmwz3 622-`a Vedzaxt gmwz tfax 13 480-zme Vedzaxt gmwz odlfzdif3 8:7-zme
Abbxfbazf dejdgazmxw3
Wzvjt wdzf3 16%: idoodme Avbifezfj aeevao {xmjvgzdme3 1
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Wf`mvo/ Imxmggm
Bomhao Wgfeaxdm3
Idedidsdeb oaej jfbxajazdme
Z`f idedidsdeb oaej jfbxajazdme wgfeaxdm wfofgzw z`f
zfg`emombt rdz` z`f `db`fwz idzdbazdeb fllfgz me oaej
jfbxajazdme mx emef dl z`f hawfodef wdzvazdme
jfimewzxazfw z`f omrfwz xazf ml oaej jfbxajazdme%
Z`f di{ofifezazdme gmwzw lmx z`f zmzao wzvjt axfa axf
gaogvoazfj aej gmwz){xmjvgzd|dzt xfoazdmew awwfwwfj%
Zm lagdodzazf gmi{axdwme hfzrffe jdllfxfez wzvjt
wdzfw/ aoo gmwzw axf fp{xfwwfj de Fvxm%
)7%47 zme wmdo-`a
6;-zme wmdo
Wgm{f lmx xfjvgfj fxmwdme
Xfjvgzdme ml fxmwdme (efbazd|f |aovfw$ [fxgfezabf ml fxmwdme xfjvgzdme (efbazd|f |aovfw$
Hdm{`twdgao di{agz3 fxmwdme xfjvgzdme
Xfjvgzdme ml fxmwdme de 4: & ml a{{odgahof axfa A|fxabf ahwmovzf fxmwdme xfjvgzdme3 7%47
zmeefw-`a-tx
A|fxabf {fxgfez fxmwdme xfjvgzdme3 46 &Fgmemidg dejdgazmxw
A|fxabf gmwzw3
De|fwzifez gmwz3 1;;0-`a Vedzaxt gmwz tfax 13 862-zme wmdo Vedzaxt gmwz odlfzdif3 6;-zme wmdo
Abbxfbazf dejdgazmxw3
Wzvjt wdzf3 86%8 idoodme Abbxfbazf aeevao fxmwdme xfjvgzdme3 44/:0< zme Zmzao fxmwdme xfjvgzdme3 ;%446 idoodme zme
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Wf`mvo/ Imxmggm
Gmegovjdeb xfiaxnw
Hawfodef wdivoazdmew w`mr a idpfj {dgzvxf ml wmdo fxmwdme de z`f Wf`mvo axfa3 ahmvz `aol ml z`f axfa `aw wmdofxmwdme xazfw hfomr 1 zme-`a-tx/ hvz m|fx 8;& `aw xazfw ml imxf z`ae 1; zme-`a-tx% Di{xm|fj gxm{ xmzazdmew lmx gfxfaow aej di{xm|fj xaebfoaejw rdz` gmezxmo ml bvoodfw rfxf {xdmxdzdwfj ht
wgdfezdwzw aej omgao wzanf`mojfxw zm gmezxmo wmdo fxmwdme/ wmdo lfxzdodzt jf{ofzdme aej |fbfzazdme jfgodef% Zrm
gmegxfzf zfg`emombdfw rfxf zfwzfj3 {xmzfgzdme ml {awzvxfw allfgzfj ht bvoodfw aej xdoow (IMX16$ aej
ivog`deb (lfegdeb$ ml axahof oaej (IMX1