7/31/2019 WP5.3 Model Simulations Sehoul

1/13

Wf`mvo/ Imxmggm

Wzvjt wdzf jfzadow

Z`f Wf`mvo [oazfav dw omgazfj hfzrffe z`f `db`rat lxmi Xahaz zm Lfw de z`f emxz`/ aej z`f Bxmv Xd|fx de z`fwmvz`% Dz dw a {axz ml z`f moj Azoaezdg Ifwfza%

Gmmxjdeazfw3Oazdzvjf3 776: E

Omebdzvjf3

7/31/2019 WP5.3 Model Simulations Sehoul

2/13

Wf`mvo/ Imxmggm

Hawfodef Wgfeaxdm

[FWFXA hawfodef xve

Z`f hawfodef wgfeaxdm w`mrw z`az wmdo fxmwdme xdwn dw

`db`fwz me z`f wzff{ `doowom{fw aomeb z`f xd|fxw z`az

jdwwfgz mx odidz z`f axfa de a {xfjmideaezot emxz`rfwz)

wmvz`fawz jdxfgzdme% Z`f {oazfavw/ lmx z`f oaxbfx {axz

lmxfwzfj/ wzaej mvz aw omr fxmwdme axfaw% Hdmiaww

{xmjvgzdme gmxxfoazfw rdz` oaej vwf/ rdz` db`fwz |aovfw

lmx lmxfwz axfaw aej omrfwz |aovfw lmx axahof oaej% Lmx

lmxfwzw/ z`f hdmiaww dw xfoazd|fot omr jvf zm `db`

aimvez ml bxasdeb% Lmx axahof oaej/ z`f axfaw rdz` wzff{

wom{fw aej w`aoomr wmdow axf ivg` ofww {xmjvgzd|f z`ae

aoov|dao axfaw%

Wmdo fxmwdme

Wmdo fxmwdme

Hdmiaww {xmjvgzdme

Hdmiaww {xmjvgzdme

Oaejlmxiw

7/31/2019 WP5.3 Model Simulations Sehoul

3/13

Wf`mvo/ Imxmggm

Zfg`emombt Wgfeaxdm3

[xmzfgzdme ml {awzvxfw allfgzfj ht bvoodfw aej xdoow/ ht lfegdeb aej z`f

{oaezazdme ml lmjjfx w`xvhw (azxd{ofp$(IMX16$ Z`f de|fwzifez gmwzw lmx azxd{ofp {oaezazdme aimvez

zm 80/;8; IAJ-`a (8:0;$

Lvoo hdmiaww degxfawf dw awwvifj zm hf ag`df|fj alzfx8; tfaxw> a odefax bxmrz` zxfej dw awwvifj%

Bxasdeb dw awwvifj de rdz`mvz gawf% A{axz lxmijdllfxfegfw de lmjjfx {xmjvgzdme/ lmjjfx qvaodzt dw

awwfwwfj ht a gme|fxwdme lagzmx ml 76& (rdz`mvz gawf$

aej 6

7/31/2019 WP5.3 Model Simulations Sehoul

4/13

Hdm{`twdgao di{agz3 degxfawf de hdmiaww

Fgmemidg |dahdodzt

Efz {xfwfez |aovf alzfx 1; tfaxw Efz {xfwfez |aovf alzfx 8; tfaxw

Aoz`mvb` z`f zfg`emombt dw {xmcfgzfj zm ofaj zm a |fxt wzxmeb degxfawf de

hdmiaww/ z`dw dw odnfot a womr {xmgfww/ {axzdgvoaxot me jfbxajfj oaejw lmx r`dg`

z`f zfg`emombt dw dezfejfj% Ae de|fwzifez lmx a zdif `mxdsme ml 1; tfaxw ofajw )

vejfx z`f awwvi{zdmew iajf ) zm efbazd|f efz {xfwfez |aovf% De z`f omebfx

zfxi/ d%f% 8; tfaxw/ z`f zfg`emombt dw `db`ot {xmldzahof% Wmif fllfgzw axf emz

zanfe dezm aggmvez/ f%b%3

Ajm{zdme ml z`f zfg`emombt xfjvgfw effj lmx wzvhhof aej lmxfwz bxasdeb/aej {xmjvgzd|dzt ml gxm{oaej aej lmxfwz iat bm v{ aw a gmewfqvfegf%

Mll)wdzf fllfgzw/ wvg` aw a|mdjdeb z`f jf|fom{ifez ml bvoodfw de ajcagfezlaxioaej aej xfjvgfj wfjdifezazdme de z`f xd|fx efzrmxn%

Gmwzw ml di{ofifezdeb z`f zfg`emombt iat `a|f ae fofifez ml w{azdao|axdahdodzt (jdwzaegf zm iaxnfzw lmx de{vzw/ razfx wmvxgf lmx dxxdbazdme aej

m{{mxzvedzt gmwz ml oahmvx lmx od|fwzmgn bxasdeb$

Z`f wgaof ml a{{odgazdme (f%b% lfegdeb gmwzw {fx vedz axfa gae hf ivg`xfjvgfj ht gomwdeb gmezdbvmvw oaxbfx axfaw lmx dewzaegf ht 6;& lmx : `a

aej ht 26& lmx 1< `a$%

Hdmiaww degxfawf [fxgfezabf hdmiaww degxfawf

7/31/2019 WP5.3 Model Simulations Sehoul

5/13

Wf`mvo/ Imxmggm

Zfg`emombt Wgfeaxdm3

Ivog`deb (lfegdeb$ aej gvozd|azdme zfg`edqvfw (gme|fezdmeao zdooabf )

IMX 1

7/31/2019 WP5.3 Model Simulations Sehoul

6/13

Hdm{`twdgao di{agz3 degxfawf de hdmiaww

Fgmemidg |dahdodzt

Efz {xfwfez |aovf ( 1; tfaxw$3 Ivog` meot (IMX1

7/31/2019 WP5.3 Model Simulations Sehoul

7/13

Wf`mvo/ Imxmggm

[modgt Wgfeaxdm3

Wvhwdjdwdeb z`f {xmzfgzdme ml {awzvxfw allfgzfj ht bvoodfw (IMX16$

Az a zdif `mxdsme ml 1; tfaxw/ lfegdeb aej {oaezdeb

azxd{ofp dw emz {xmldzahof% Oaej vwfxw axf veodnfot zm radz

omebfx lmx hfefldzw zm aggxvf% @fegf gmwzw ml z`f

zfg`emombt effj zm hf xfjvgfj% Z`dw dw {mwwdhof z`xmvb`

a wvhwdjt aej-mx gmmxjdeazdeb z`f wgaof ml

di{ofifezazdme r`dg` rdoo xfjvgf {fx axfa vedz gmwz% A

wvhwdjt gmvoj hf {axz ml a {atifez lmx fgmwtwzfi

wfx|dgfw wg`fif aw wzahdodsazdme ml axfaw allfgzfj ht

bvoodfw aej xdoow `aw di{mxzaez mll)wdzf fllfgzw/ f%b%

xfjvgzdme ml wfjdifezazdme ml z`f xfwfx|mdxw de z`f

wzvjt axfa/ aej xfodf|deb {xfwwvxf me wzazf lmxfwzw% De

z`dw wgfeaxdm a gmwz xfjvgzdme fqvao zm 6;& ml z`f

de|fwzifez gmwzw dw fp{omxfj%

6;&

[xmldzahdodzt3

Gmwz)fllfgzd|fefww dejdgazmxw3

A xfjvgzdme de de|fwzifez gmwzw ml 6;& ianfw z`f zfg`emombt {xmldzahof de 41& ml z`f a{{odgahof axfa/hawfj me z`f efz {xfwfez |aovf alzfx 1; tfaxw%

Z`dw rdoo xfwvoz de ae a|fxabf xfjvgzdme ml fxmwdme ml 7%82 zme-`a-tfax% De zmzao/ ae aeevao xfjvgzdme ml 1

7/31/2019 WP5.3 Model Simulations Sehoul

8/13

Wf`mvo/ Imxmggm

[modgt Wgfeaxdm3

[xm`dhdzdeb od|fwzmgn wzvhhof bxasdeb (IMX1

7/31/2019 WP5.3 Model Simulations Sehoul

9/13

Gmwz)fllfgzd|fefww dejdgazmxw3

Rdz`mvz a effj lmx lfegdeb/ z`f zfg`emombt (IMX1

7/31/2019 WP5.3 Model Simulations Sehoul

10/13

Wf`mvo/ Imxmggm

Ajm{zdme Wgfeaxdm3

Lfegdeb aej azxd{ofp (IMX16$/ Ivog`deb (IMX 1

7/31/2019 WP5.3 Model Simulations Sehoul

11/13

Wf`mvo/ Imxmggm

Bomhao Wgfeaxdm3

Lmmj {xmjvgzdme

Z`f lmmj {xmjvgzdme wgfeaxdm wfofgzw z`f zfg`emombt

rdz` z`f `db`fwz abxdgvozvxao {xmjvgzd|dzt (hdmiaww$

lmx fag` gfoo r`fxf a `db`fx {xmjvgzd|dzt z`ae de z`f

hawfodef wgfeaxdm dw ag`df|fj% Z`f di{ofifezazdme

gmwzw lmx z`f zmzao wzvjt axfa axf gaogvoazfj aej gmwz)

{xmjvgzd|dzt xfoazdmew awwfwwfj% Zm lagdodzazf

gmi{axdwme hfzrffe jdllfxfez wzvjt wdzfw/ aoo gmwzw

axf fp{xfwwfj de Fvxm%

.260 nb-`a

.0:1 nb-de`ahdzaez

Wgm{f lmx degxfawfj {xmjvgzdme

Tdfoj degxfawf [fxgfezabf tdfoj degxfawf

Hdm{`twdgao di{agz3 tdfoj degxfawf

Tdfoj degxfawf de 44 & ml a{{odgahof axfa A|fxabf ahwmovzf tdfoj degxfawf3 260 nb-`a A|fxabf tdfoj degxfawf3 101 &Fgmemidg dejdgazmxw

A|fxabf gmwzw3

De|fwzifez gmwz3 622-`a Vedzaxt gmwz tfax 13 480-zme Vedzaxt gmwz odlfzdif3 8:7-zme

Abbxfbazf dejdgazmxw3

Wzvjt wdzf3 16%: idoodme Avbifezfj aeevao {xmjvgzdme3 1

7/31/2019 WP5.3 Model Simulations Sehoul

12/13

Wf`mvo/ Imxmggm

Bomhao Wgfeaxdm3

Idedidsdeb oaej jfbxajazdme

Z`f idedidsdeb oaej jfbxajazdme wgfeaxdm wfofgzw z`f

zfg`emombt rdz` z`f `db`fwz idzdbazdeb fllfgz me oaej

jfbxajazdme mx emef dl z`f hawfodef wdzvazdme

jfimewzxazfw z`f omrfwz xazf ml oaej jfbxajazdme%

Z`f di{ofifezazdme gmwzw lmx z`f zmzao wzvjt axfa axf

gaogvoazfj aej gmwz){xmjvgzd|dzt xfoazdmew awwfwwfj%

Zm lagdodzazf gmi{axdwme hfzrffe jdllfxfez wzvjt

wdzfw/ aoo gmwzw axf fp{xfwwfj de Fvxm%

)7%47 zme wmdo-`a

6;-zme wmdo

Wgm{f lmx xfjvgfj fxmwdme

Xfjvgzdme ml fxmwdme (efbazd|f |aovfw$ [fxgfezabf ml fxmwdme xfjvgzdme (efbazd|f |aovfw$

Hdm{`twdgao di{agz3 fxmwdme xfjvgzdme

Xfjvgzdme ml fxmwdme de 4: & ml a{{odgahof axfa A|fxabf ahwmovzf fxmwdme xfjvgzdme3 7%47

zmeefw-`a-tx

A|fxabf {fxgfez fxmwdme xfjvgzdme3 46 &Fgmemidg dejdgazmxw

A|fxabf gmwzw3

De|fwzifez gmwz3 1;;0-`a Vedzaxt gmwz tfax 13 862-zme wmdo Vedzaxt gmwz odlfzdif3 6;-zme wmdo

Abbxfbazf dejdgazmxw3

Wzvjt wdzf3 86%8 idoodme Abbxfbazf aeevao fxmwdme xfjvgzdme3 44/:0< zme Zmzao fxmwdme xfjvgzdme3 ;%446 idoodme zme

7/31/2019 WP5.3 Model Simulations Sehoul

13/13

Wf`mvo/ Imxmggm

Gmegovjdeb xfiaxnw

Hawfodef wdivoazdmew w`mr a idpfj {dgzvxf ml wmdo fxmwdme de z`f Wf`mvo axfa3 ahmvz `aol ml z`f axfa `aw wmdofxmwdme xazfw hfomr 1 zme-`a-tx/ hvz m|fx 8;& `aw xazfw ml imxf z`ae 1; zme-`a-tx% Di{xm|fj gxm{ xmzazdmew lmx gfxfaow aej di{xm|fj xaebfoaejw rdz` gmezxmo ml bvoodfw rfxf {xdmxdzdwfj ht

wgdfezdwzw aej omgao wzanf`mojfxw zm gmezxmo wmdo fxmwdme/ wmdo lfxzdodzt jf{ofzdme aej |fbfzazdme jfgodef% Zrm

gmegxfzf zfg`emombdfw rfxf zfwzfj3 {xmzfgzdme ml {awzvxfw allfgzfj ht bvoodfw aej xdoow (IMX16$ aej

ivog`deb (lfegdeb$ ml axahof oaej (IMX1