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What future for the different electricity sources?
SFEN “Atoms for the Future” 2013
Yves Giraud, Generation Economics & Strategy Director EDF
Paris, 22nd October 2013
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Once upon a time, Europe had a dream….
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Back to Coal !
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Coal, the king of the ring
First in the world
Highly standardized - 2000 €/kW
Flexible
Fuel easy to extract and transport
CCS ? 40%40%
of the world electricity generation
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Gas, a (fallen) sprinter
Easy, fast and cheap
(900 €/kW)
Clean compared to coal
Today CCGT in Europe are closingbecause of low coal and CO2prices 22%22%
of the world electricity generation
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Low carbon energy
Nuclear13%
Hydro16%
other renwables
4%
33% of the world
electricity generation
33% of the world
electricity generation
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Energy efficiency, a solution to reduce electricity demand
Clean
High costs (1000 to 4000 €/KW)
Bad return on investment
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Renewables, like a dream
Parc éolien de 30 MW, à Mistretta, en Sicile
Advanced technologies
Easy to implement
Clean ?
Costs depending on technologies(1000 €/kW to 4000 €/kW)
In the right place at the right time
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March 2011 Fukushima
Nuclear nightmare?
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Time for a nuclear dream!
Parc éolien de 30 MW, à Mistretta, en Sicile
Difficult, long and expensive(> 4000 €/MW)
Long construction time
Complex(political, legal and safety)
Low carbon
Competitive (over the long term)
Good for employment
Stable price
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Existing reactors and new buildprojects
New build projects/programmes
Nuclear exit or phase out
Exsiting reactors with no new buildprojects
Lots of countries see a future for nuclear
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Opinion on nuclear is not that bad
Question: what is your opinion of the use of nuclear energy in your country?
Source: CSA; questionnaire realised between 26/11/12 and 18/12/12
19
18
29
34
34
34
34
68
50
22
16
15
14
13
6
26
34
30
35
15
22
7
6
15
20
16
37
31
Favorable Opposé Hésitant Sans opinionIn favour Against Unsure No opinion
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The benefits of nuclear are well known
Residential electricity prices (€/MWh) in H2 2012*
*Source: Eurostat H2 2012**Source: IEA Facts 2012
Affordable electricity
Security of supply, helping the trade balance
Low carbon electricity generation
A large number of job opportunities in high performing industries
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
France UK Belgium Spain Italy Germany
0
200
400
600
800
France Belgium Spain Italy UK Germany Poland
CO2 emissions (gCO2/kWh) in 2010**
Average OECD-Europe
145
179
222 228 230
268€228/MWh European average of 17 Eurozone countries outside of France
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Nuclear remains a competitive technology
70 à 100€/MWh
85 - 185 €/MWh
ExistingNuclear
38 €/MWh
2012 TariffsPart of base load
generation
RenewablesNew SC Coal, gas and NNB
EXISTING NUCLEAR
NEW BUILD COAL, GAS AND NUCLEAR
WIND, SOLAR PV
+ additional system costs
~55 €/MWhCour des Comptes
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USA : 70 of 104 reactors have already obtained the license for 60 years
The « Grand carénage » in France An opportunity for our industry
An industrial, human and financial challenge
Existing: achieve life extension
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Belgium: a new mechanism for securing Tihange 1 nuclear life extension?
Tihange NPP
Generation costs
Life extension costs
“Fair margin”
State
Market price Fixed price
70% of revenues
?
30% of revenues
€/M
Wh
Operator
Belgium Government is considering setting a fixedprice* for electricity generated from Tihange 1
Any revenues above this price will be splitbetween the State and the operator by 70% and30%, respectively
€41.8* Bill adopted by the Government
*€41.8/MWh as announced in L’Echo
Under negotiation
Margin
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New Build: brighter times ahead for nuclear!
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The challenge of the investment cost
900 MW900 MW
1500 MW1500 MW
EPREPR
1300 MW1300 MW
Wind, PV
1980 1990 2000 2010
€/kWg
?
Nuclear
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Nuclear development is being driven by non-OECD countries (mainly Asia)
*Note: New Policies Scenario. Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012
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HINKLEY POINT ?
ARABIE SAOUDITE
Extended range of models
Optimisation
POLAND 1 & 2?
SAUDI ARABIA?
European industry must continue its nuclear history both for international and renewal of existing
HINKLEY POINT 3 & 4?
FLAMANVILLE 3
TAISHAN 1 & 2
OLKILUOTO 3(Areva)
EPR feedback experience
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UK : Hinkley Point C, as it will be in the future
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The CFD is a long term contract providing stability to both customers and investors
92,5 £/MWh
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A strong political commitment to the polish nuclear programme:
– 2011: “Nuclear Package” voted almost unanimously
(407 for vs. 2 against) by the Parliament
– 2012: PGE announces a package of Integrated
Proceedings for the first nuclear project
– Spring 2013: preliminary dialogue with interested
bidders
– End-2013: finalisation of Polish Nuclear Programme
– 2025-2030: target commissioning date for 6,000MW
EDF and its partner Areva have announced their
intention to participate in the Polish NNB
programme
Poland: a robust process is underway which in a sense can be compared to the commitment of UK
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Towards a new market design
Difficulties to launch nuclear projects in a deregulated market….
… as for any other technologies
Let’s invent a new market design for nuclear
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Let’s start a new dream with nuclear
Nuclear will playan important role
Life extension must be achieved
A vital need for NNB projects