dr. dörthe krömker (center for environmental systems research, kassel); slide 1 security diagrams...

Dr. Dörthe Krömker (Center for Environmental Systems Research, Kassel); Slide 1

Security Diagrams

Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel

Adelphi Research, BerlinAlexander Carius Dennis Tänzler

The Psychological & the Political

Approach to Susceptibility

Dörthe Krömker


Security Diagrams

Agent based approach to susceptibility

Entitlement/Access = Environmental, Economic, Infrastructural, Political, Social or Personal Factors

SituationAgents’ perception & evaluation

Agents actions

Assets or Barriers

Adaptive ornon adaptive

Exposure Coping

Degree of being susceptible

Disaster


Security Diagrams

Protection-Capacity Theory

Costs/Barriers

Response Efficacy

Self EfficacyCoping

Appraisal

= Competence

Degree of Susceptibility

Severity

Probability

Values

Appraisal of Threat

= Exposure

Perception based appraisal process

External Factors


Security Diagrams

Neg. conse-

quences

Pos. conse-

quences

Appraisal of threat

Suscep-tibility

Appraisal of

competence

Agrarian income

Not agrarian income

Agrarian food

source

Not agrarian

food source

Technical measures

“At place” measures

Barriers

ResourcesNot

agrarian resources

Agrarian resources

Depen-dency ratio

Threatened values

Depen-dency from

agriculture

Conse-quences of

drought

if

Response-Efficacy

Self-Efficacy

Perceived Probability

Perceived Severity

measured input variabledimension, computedvia Fuzzy subsystem

Psychological Model


Security Diagrams

Results from Psychological Perpective

0,3 low0,7 high 0,4 low

Andhra Pradesh, India 2001

0,000,250,500,751,00

Low capacityfor technicalmeasures

Low capacityfor at placemeasures

Barriers toimplementmeasures

Lowresources

Negativeconsequences

of drought

Appraisal of threatened

values

Dependencyratio

Dependencyfrom agriculture

Algarve + Alentejo, Portugal 2001

0,000,250,500,751,00




Lowresources


of drought


values

Dependencyratio


Volgograd + Saratov, Russia 2001

0,000,250,500,751,00




Lowresources


of drought


values

Dependencyratio



Security Diagrams

Conclusions and Future Steps • The subjective exposure and the possibilities to deal with it define the

degree of susceptibility

• What ever the overall situation is like it is important how specific groups of people interact with it

• The identification of typical subgroups within a society can be achieved

• Based on that adjusted and theirewith more effective measures can be derived

• Validation must still be done


Security Diagrams

The Political Approach

Adelphi Research, Berlin

Alexander Carius Dennis Tänzler


Security Diagrams

“Functional Differentiation of Societies”

Political Dimension: Goal Attainment

Economic Dimension: Adaptation

Social Dimension: Integration

Cultural Dimension:

Pattern Reproduction

System Analytic Approach, based on Talcott Parson


Security Diagrams

The “Functional Differentiation of Societies” applied …

En

vir

on

men

tal S

tress

Deg

rees o

f S

uscep

tib

ilit

y

Wealth & Economic Susceptibility

Social Integration

Political Capacity & Political Willingness

PolSus

EcoSusSocCuSus

Endangerment of a system‘s subfunctions


Security Diagrams

Political Model

Susceptibility

Tax revenue

Political

Susceptibility

Economic

Susceptibility

Socio- cultural Susceptibility

(as lack of Social Integration)

Relative state

capacity

RelativeState

willingness

Lack of Wealth

Economic Sensitivity

Conflict involvement

-Expenditures for health

GDP percapita

Hydro-power production

Size of Agriculture

Opportunity ofParticipation

Immunization

Employees in agriculture

Degree of Corruption


Security Diagrams

Results for Political Approach

0,8 0,4 0,8very high low very high

Andhra Pradesh, India 1991-1995

0,00

0,25

0,50

0,75

1,00

Lack of Statecapacity

Lack of Statewill

Lack of WealthEconomic

Sensitivity

Lack of Social

Integration

Algarve + Alentejo, Portugal 1991- 1995

0,00

0,25

0,50

0,75

1,00

Lack of Statecapacity

Lack of Statewill

Lack of Wealth

EconomicSensitivity

Lack of Social

Integration

Volgograd + Saratov, Russia 1991-1995

Lack of

0,00

0,25

0,50

0,75

1,00Statecapacity

Lack of Statewill

Lack of Wealth

EconomicSensitivity

Lack of Social

Integration


Security Diagrams

Conclusions and Future Steps• Basical factors which influence the functioning of a society are identified

• In this model, political susceptibility of regions depends to a large degree on conflict involvement and degrees of corruption.

• Their influence on the goal attainment function of the state and on the overall results of the concept might easily be overestimated

• Our approach to analyze susceptibility in its temporal development hinders us to use more precise indicators for some of the dimension because of a lack of data availability (eg. Gini)

• Ideally a measurement of pattern maintenance should be added to this approach. However, empirical and theoretical barriers remain concerning this dimension hence needing further elaboration

dr. dörthe krömker (center for environmental systems research, kassel); slide 1 security diagrams...

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