dr. james p. gaines - texas a&m university · 2018 a very good year - 2019 definite slowdown 3...

10th Annual North Texas Realty Symposium

January 25, 2019

North Texas Chapter

Dr. James P. GainesChief Economist

www.recenter.tamu.edu

Recessionary Fears

2

2018 A Very Good Year -2019 Definite Slowdown

3

• Real GDP growth 2018 ~ 3.1%+ 2019 ~2.7% – 2.9%

• Jobs expanded ~1.5% Unemployment rate ~4.0%+

• Interest rates up during the year, but didn’t rise with end-of-

year Fed Funds rate hike!

• Inflation approached 2.5% and will probably stay there

• Tax Cuts added positive impacts

• Industrial Production high but less labor

• Income and spending growing

• Real Disposable Personal Income +2.9% thru 3Q18

• Real PCE +2.6% thru 3Q18

• Housing improving, not fully recovered; recent stalling

• U.S. became #1 oil producer and net exporter

Inflation Bounced Upward Then FellExpected to Remain Within Range

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

Jan

-00

Jan

-01

Jan

-02

Jan

-03

Jan

-04

Jan

-05

Jan

-06

Jan

-07

Jan

-08

Jan

-09

Jan

-10

Jan

-11

Jan

-12

Jan

-13

Jan

-14

Jan

-15

Jan

-16

Jan

-17

Jan

-18

Jan

-19

Jan

-20

4Source: BLS (Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items; Y/Y %

change in index)

4Q fall off from lower oil prices

and reduced upward pressure

from general economy

Fed Funds Rate, 10-Year Treasury & 30-Year FMR

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

Jan

-07

Ap

r-07

Ju

l-07

Oct-

07

Jan

-08

Ap

r-08

Ju

l-08

Oct-

08

Jan

-09

Ap

r-09

Ju

l-09

Oct-

09

Jan

-10

Ap

r-10

Ju

l-10

Oct-

10

Jan

-11

Ap

r-11

Ju

l-11

Oct-

11

Jan

-12

Ap

r-12

Ju

l-12

Oct-

12

Jan

-13

Ap

r-13

Ju

l-13

Oct-

13

Jan

-14

Ap

r-14

Ju

l-14

Oct-

14

Jan

-15

Ap

r-15

Ju

l-15

Oct-

15

Jan

-16

Ap

r-16

Ju

l-16

Oct-

16

Jan

-17

Ap

r-17

Ju

l-17

Oct-

17

Jan

-18

Ap

r-18

Ju

l-18

Oct-

18

Jan

-19

Ap

r-19

Ju

l-19

30-Year FMR Fed Funds 10-Year Treasury

Source: Haver Analytics; FHLMC; St. Louis FED;

Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Curb on rate increases from slower global

economic growth and restrained inflation

Expected Interest Rate on a 30-Year, Fixed-Rate Mortgage in 2019

Apr-105.10

4.64

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

Jan

-07

Jan

-08

Jan

-09

Jan

-10

Jan

-11

Jan

-12

Jan

-13

Jan

-14

Jan

-15

Jan

-16

Jan

-17

Jan

-18

Jan

-19

Jan

-20

Source: FHLMC; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 6

30-Year FRM rate is projected to

rise in 2019 by ~70bp

Jan 03 – Jan 07

30-Yr. FRM

averaged 6%

5.5%

+90bp

5.25%

+60bp

5.15%

+50bp

2015-2016 Oil Decline; Down Years

2017 Recovery – A Good Year

2018: Better than 2017

2019 Some Headwinds, but Not Bad

7

Texas Economy

2018 a Very Good Year Economically For Texas

• Rebound from Harvey in 2017 strong, but dragging

• State GDP +6% (1Q17-2Q18) #1 in U.S. [~5% 2018 total]

• Personal Income +5.1% (3Q17-3Q18)

• Oil Prices >$70 until 4Q; lately $40-$50

• Population increased 379,128 to 28,701,845• 190,951 natural increase

• 104,976 foreign immigration

• 82,569 domestic immigration

• Jobs increased 391,800 +3.2%

8

Texas Economic Outlook: 2019 Somewhat Slower Than 2018

9

Upside

U.S. Economy stays relatively strong

Employment: ~2.7% from 2.9% in 2018

GDP: 4% 2019 from ~5% 2018

Energy sector volatile; oil prices $40-$50/bl., production up

Population expansion continues but at slower pace

Exports doing well and contributing to economy – trade

agreements add uncertainty

Retail Sales steady but not significantly higher

Texas Economic Outlook: 2019 Somewhat Slower Than 2018

10

Downside: U.S. & Global Issues

Greatest headwinds from psychological impacts and counter-

productive political actions

Stock Market sell off led to lower interest rates as investors seek

safer returns

Yield curve shifts at low- and middle-levels created uncertainty

Fed Policy, especially sell-off of assets, affecting rates

Housing market softer, new construction flat & higher unaffordability

growing concern

Global economic flattening

Texas’ Leading Economic Index

95.0

100.0

105.0

110.0

115.0

120.0

125.0

130.0

135.0

140.0

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, 1987=100

T

e

c

h

W

r

e

c

k

GreatRecession

Oil Bust

A composite of 8 leading indicators: 1) value of

the dollar, 2) U.S. leading economic index, 3)

real oil price, 4) well permits, 5) initial claims

for unemployment insurance, 6) Texas stock

index, 7) help-wanted index, and 8) average

weekly hours worked in manufacturing.

Solid growthafter oil bust,

but falling with latest price

decline.

Weekly Active Texas Rig Count & Price of WTI

12

11/21/2014, 906

5/20/2016, 173

6/27/2014, $106.69

2/12/2016, $28.14

$0$10$20$30$40$50$60$70$80$90$100$110$120$130$140$150$160$170$180

100150200250300350400450500550600650700750800850900950

1,000

1/7

/20

00

4/2

8/2

00

08

/18

/200

01

2/8

/200

03

/30

/200

17

/20

/200

11

1/9

/200

13

/1/2

002

6/2

1/2

00

21

0/1

1/2

00

21

/31

/200

35

/23

/200

39

/12

/200

31

2/3

1/2

00

34

/23

/200

48

/13

/200

41

2/3

/200

43

/24

/200

57

/15

/200

51

1/4

/200

52

/24

/200

66

/16

/200

61

0/6

/200

61

/26

/200

75

/18

/200

79

/7/2

007

12/2

8/2

00

74

/18

/200

88

/8/2

008

11/2

6/2

00

83

/20

/200

97

/10

/200

91

0/3

0/2

00

92

/19

/201

06

/11

/201

01

0/1

/201

01

/21

/201

15

/13

/201

19

/2/2

011

12/2

2/2

01

14

/13

/201

28

/3/2

012

11/2

1/2

01

23

/15

/201

37

/3/2

013

10/2

5/2

01

32

/14

/201

46

/6/2

014

9/2

6/2

01

41

/16

/201

55

/8/2

015

8/2

8/2

01

51

2/1

8/2

01

54

/8/2

016

7/2

9/2

01

61

1/1

8/2

01

63

/10

/201

76

/30

/201

71

0/2

0/2

01

72

/9/2

018

6/1

/20

18

9/2

1/2

01

81

/11

/201

95

/3/2

019

Rig Count

(left)

WTI $/bl.

(right)

Rig Count up 362, +209% since May 2016

Source: Baker Hughes; EIA; RE Center at Texas A&M University

Current and Futures Monthly Average Price of WTI

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

$110

$120

Ja

n-1

3

Ma

r-13

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Sep

-13

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Sep

-14

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Sep

-15

No

v-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

Ju

l-1

6

Sep

-16

No

v-1

6

Ja

n-1

7

Ma

r-17

Ma

y-1

7

Ju

l-1

7

Sep

-17

No

v-1

7

Ja

n-1

8

Ma

r-18

Ma

y-1

8

Ju

l-1

8

Sep

-18

No

v-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Ma

r-19

Ma

y-1

9

Ju

l-1

9

Sep

-19

Ave

rag

e M

on

thly

Pri

ce

Cushing Spot Price

6-Month Futures

12-Month Futures

2-Year Futures

Sources: EIA; Haver Analytics 13

Monthly Texas Oil Production & Price of WTI

14

$0.00

$10.00

$20.00

$30.00

$40.00

$50.00

$60.00

$70.00

$80.00

$90.00

$100.00

$110.00

$120.00

$130.00

$140.00

$150.00

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

Ja

n-9

0

Ja

n-9

1

Ja

n-9

2

Ja

n-9

3

Ja

n-9

4

Ja

n-9

5

Ja

n-9

6

Ja

n-9

7

Ja

n-9

8

Ja

n-9

9

Ja

n-0

0

Ja

n-0

1

Ja

n-0

2

Ja

n-0

3

Ja

n-0

4

Ja

n-0

5

Ja

n-0

6

Ja

n-0

7

Ja

n-0

8

Ja

n-0

9

Ja

n-1

0

Ja

n-1

1

Ja

n-1

2

Ja

n-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ja

n-1

7

Ja

n-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Th

ou

san

ds o

f B

arr

els

pe

r D

ay

Tx Oil Production (left)

WTI Price (right)

Source: EIA; RE Center at Texas A&M University

Texas Annual Jobs

15

7,125,7007,204,6007,301,2007,515,100

7,786,1008,058,700

8,291,400

8,642,700

8,973,7009,189,400

9,461,2009,543,9009,446,4009,400,7009,527,700

9,771,800

10,098,300

10,428,20010,642,400

10,341,10010,374,500

10,604,200

10,914,400

11,241,200

11,593,70011,866,000

12,012,20012,225,500

12,576,750

12,891,169

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

9,000,000

10,000,000

11,000,000

12,000,000

13,000,000

14,000,0001990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019p

Sources: Texas Workforce Commission, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

2014-2018 +1,335,550 jobs;

average 267,110/year

2015 +2.4%

2016 +1.2%

2017 +1.8%

2018 +2.9%

2019p +2.5%

Texas Growth

Year

Jobs, NSA

(Dec-Dec)

Population

(July-July)

2010 215,800 439,887

2011 236,400 402,776

2012 374,400 433,903

2013 301,400 400,952

2014 420,400 475,157

2015 152,000 500,444

2016 146,200 449,982

2017 258,300 399,734

2018 391,800 379,128

16Sources: US Census Bureau; Texas Workforce Commission;


2010-2018

+3,881,963

people

+2,496,700

jobs

Dallas Economic Outlook

Business Cycle Indexes: Dallas, Houston Fort Worth, San Antonio & Texas

Months Seasonally Adjusted, 10/1980=100

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

420

440

460

480

500

Jan

-00

Ju

l-00

Jan

-01

Ju

l-01

Jan

-02

Ju

l-02

Jan

-03

Ju

l-03

Jan

-04

Ju

l-04

Jan

-05

Ju

l-05

Jan

-06

Ju

l-06

Jan

-07

Ju

l-07

Jan

-08

Ju

l-08

Jan

-09

Ju

l-09

Jan

-10

Ju

l-10

Jan

-11

Ju

l-11

Jan

-12

Ju

l-12

Jan

-13

Ju

l-13

Jan

-14

Ju

l-14

Jan

-15

Ju

l-15

Jan

-16

Ju

l-16

Jan

-17

Ju

l-17

Jan

-18

Ju

l-18

Jan

-19

Ju

l-19

Texas

Houston

Dallas

San Antonio

Fort Worth

18Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Texas Metropolitan Areas Ranked by Employment Growth Rate

Percent Growth November 2017 – November 2018

-1.0-0.2

0.41.0

1.31.31.41.41.51.51.6

1.71.8

1.92.02.02.0

2.22.4

2.72.8

3.03.4

3.83.8

4.25.4

6.0

-2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0

19

Texas added 365,400 jobs

November 2017 to

November 2018, +3.0% vs.

U.S. 1.7%

Sources: TWC; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Midland

Micropolitan Texas

Tyler

Sherman-Denison

Houston

Austin

TEXAS

Dallas

Lubbock

Killeen-Temple

Fort Worth

McAllen

Corpus Christi

Brownsville

El Paso

CS-Bryan

Amarillo

Waco

Wichita Falls

Odessa

Abilene

San Angelo

Longview

San Antonio

Texarkana

Laredo

Beaumont-PA

Victoria

Annual Employment Growth RatesU.S. and Texas MSAs

-6.0

-5.0

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Jan

-09

Ma

y-0

9

Sep

-09

Jan

-10

Ma

y-1

0

Sep

-10

Jan

-11

Ma

y-1

1

Sep

-11

Jan

-12

Ma

y-1

2

Sep

-12

Jan

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Sep

-13

Jan

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Sep

-14

Jan

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Sep

-15

Jan

-16

Ma

y-1

6

Sep

-16

Jan

-17

Ma

y-1

7

Sep

-17

Jan

-18

Ma

y-1

8

Sep

-18

Jan

-19

Ma

y-1

9

Pe

rce

nt

Ch

an

ge

, S

AA

R

TexasAustinDallasFort WorthHoustonSan Antonio

20Source: BLS, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Texas Major MSAs Employment Growth 2017, 2018 & 2019

3.2

2.8

2.3

1.0

2.3

1.8

3.5

3.3

2.4

3.1

1.6

2.9

3.1

2.9

2.2

3.0

1.4

2.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Austin Dallas Fort Worth Houston San Antonio Texas

Pe

rce

nt

Gro

wth

in

An

nu

al

Em

plo

ym

en

t

2017 2018 2019

21Sources: TWC; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Dallas-Plano-Irving Annual Jobs

22Sources: Texas Workforce Commission, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

1,995,4002,004,6001,942,800

1,910,1001,932,4001,981,900

2,049,4002,110,5002,134,800

2,051,8002,055,800

2,102,3002,155,1002,219,400

2,308,300

2,405,900

2,496,3002,567,100

2,650,8582,727,733

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

2,200,000

2,400,000

2,600,000

2,800,000

3,000,0002

00

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8

201

9p

2016 +3.8%

2017 +2.8%

2018 +3.3%

2019p +2.9%

Dallas-Plano-Irving MD: Collin, Dallas, Denton, Ellis, Hunt, Kaufman & Rockwall Counties

Fort Worth-Arlington Annual Jobs

23Sources: Texas Workforce Commission, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

818,800821,000811,800805,500818,700

841,000867,600

893,100907,700

878,100873,700

900,800927,200

952,700976,100

994,4001,006,700

1,029,6001,054,700

1,077,903

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

1,100,000

1,200,0002

00

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8

201

9p

2016 +1.2%

2017 +2.3%

2018 +2.4%

2019p +2.2%

FW-A MD: Johnson, Parker, Tarrant & Wise Counties

Texas Demographics

24

Pecos

Brewster

Webb

Hudspeth

PresidioTerrell

Culberson

Reeves

Val Verde

Crockett

Hill

Duval

Harris

Frio

Bell

Kerr

Kenedy

Starr

Polk

Clay

Edwards

Irion

Hall

Ellis

Jeff Davis

Sutton

Uvalde

Bee

Hale

Dallam

Leon

Bexar

Gaines

Hidalgo

Upton

Hartley

King

Erath

Jack

Kinney

Kent

Zavala

Brazoria

Tyler

GrayOldham

Dimmit

CassLynn HuntWise

Kimble

Lamb

Medina

Floyd

Terry

Coke

Llano

Ector

Andrews

Milam

Travis

Knox

Falls

Ward

Collin

Jones

Nolan

Potter

Nueces

Taylor

Real

Bowie

Young

Lamar

Martin

Garza

DallasFisher

Moore

Kleberg

Cameron

Cooke

Hardin

Schleicher

Gillespie

Foard

Wood

Menard

La Salle

Rusk

LibertyLee

Mills

Smith

Burnet

Cottle

Zapata

Coryell

Matagorda

Brown

Motley

Reagan Houston

Maverick

Jasper

Coleman

BaylorArcher

Scurry

Tom Green

Mason

Parker

Castro

Navarro

Brooks

Bailey

Deaf Smith

DeWitt

Lavaca

Donley

Hays

Goliad

Atascosa

Denton

BosqueEl Paso

Fannin

Tarrant

Wharton

CraneConcho

Carson

Runnels

Fayette

Crosby

Borden

Haskell

Calhoun

Newton

Live Oak

Randall

ShelbySterling

Jefferson

Briscoe

McMullen

Parmer

Jim Hogg

Mitchell

Wilson

Victoria

Trinity

Roberts

PanolaHoward

Walker

Bastrop

Grayson

San Saba

Midland

Hockley

Dickens

Swisher

Gonzales

Winkler Anderson

Dawson

Willacy

Grimes

Wheeler

Cherokee

Harrison

Colorado

Eastland

Lubbock

Karnes

Red River

Refugio

Austin

Hemphill

Williamson

Jackson

Blanco

Ochiltree

McCulloch

Loving

Sherman

Wilbarger

Hansford

Callahan

McLennan

Yoakum

Angelina

Hopkins

Lipscomb

StephensPalo Pinto

Stonewall

Hamilton

Montague

Bandera

Cochran

Jim Wells

Limestone

Kaufman

Fort Bend

Titus

Comal

Armstrong

Kendall

Freestone

Comanche

Glasscock

Johnson

Galveston

Henderson

Montgomery

Wichita

Brazos

Van Zandt

Chambers

Robertson

Waller

Sabine

Upshur

Hood

Hutchinson

Shackelford

Childress

Burleson

Nacogdoches

Lampasas

Collingsworth

Hardeman

Throckmorton

Guadalupe

Caldwell

Aransas

Marion

San Patricio

Madison

San Jacinto

Delta

WashingtonOrange

Rains

Gregg

Morris

San Augustine

Franklin

Somervell

Rockwall

Estimated Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010 to 2017

25Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 Vintage Population Estimates;

Texas State Demographer’s Office

87% E

of I-35

67% in

Urban

Triangle

91 counties lost population over the 7 year period.

tl_2017_us_county

NumCh10-17

-2,139 - 0

1 - 1,000

1,001 - 20,000

20,001 - 100,000

100,001 - 560,521

Texas Population 1910-20502018 Population Projection

54,369,297

25,145,561

47,342,417

0

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

26Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Texas State Data Center 2018 Population Projection

Revised 2018 Projection

2010-2015 Rate

From 1970 to 2010 (40 years),

Texas added 13.9 million people

From 2010 to 2050 (40 years),

Texas will probably add ~22

million people (revised)

2000-2010 Projection

D-FW MSA PopulationCollin, Dallas, Denton, Ellis, Hood, Hunt, Johnson, Kaufman, Parker, Rockwall, Somervell,

Tarrant & Wise Counties

3,034,259

6,366,542

7,920,671

9,970,678

12,728,992

16,367,293

13,173,646

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

18,000,000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

27Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; Texas State Demographer’s Office

2014 Projection; 2000-2010 Scenario

2000-2010 +10,000,751, 157%

2018 Projection

+6,807,104, 107%

D-P-I Population

1,604,273

4,230,520

5,300,611

6,802,467

8,907,450

11,770,293

9,479,630

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

28

178% increase 2010-2050

~7,540,000 people

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; Texas State Demographer’s Office 2018

Projection; 2000-2010 Scenario; Real Estate Center Texas A&M University


Dallas County Population

1327696

2,368,139

2,639,966

2,939,645

3,235,5113,528,964

3,105,476

3,477,414

3,858,686

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

29Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; Texas State Demographer’s Office 2018

Projection; Real Estate Center Texas A&M University

Collin County Population

66920

782,341

1,150,398

1,712,183

2,575,965

3,801,840

2,444,316

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

3500000

4000000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

30

2000-2010

~3,020,000, 385%

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; Texas State Demographer’s Office 2018 Projection

& 2000-2010 Scenario; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

2018 Revision

~1,662,000, 212%

Denton County Population

75,633

662,614

943,020

1,377,090

2,047,293

3,031,597

2,323,056

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

31

2000-2010 + ~2,400,000 358%


Projection; 2000-2010 Scenario; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

2018 + ~1,660,000 251%

FW-A Population

814,931

2,136,022

2,548,306

3,084,240

3,728,116

4,495,054

3,694,016

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

32

2000-2010 Projection

110% increase 2010-2050

~2,359,000 people


Projection & 2000-2010 Scenario; Real Estate Center Texas A&M University

FW-A MD: Johnson, Parker, Tarrant & Wise Counties

2018 Projection

73% increase 2010-2050

~1,558,000 people

33

Texas Housing

Market

2018 A Solid Year For Housing Around the State

• Total Housing Activity: 2018 vs. 2017

• Sales +1.7% 343,833 vs. 336,502 $97.7B vs. $92.4B

• Listings +1.4% 101,603 vs. 100,664

• DoM 58 vs. 57

• MOI 3.4 vs. 3.1

• Average Price +3.7% $284,173 vs. $274,580

• Median Price +4.5% $233,000 vs. $223,990

• Md. Price/sq. ft. +5% $116.37 vs. $110.55

• Avg. Price/sq. ft. +4.3% $128 vs. $122

34Source: TAR Data Relevance Program; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

2018 A Solid Year For Housing Around the State

• New Home Construction lead the nation• State 168,500 total starts, ~122k SF ~47k MF

• DFW 57.9K (35.1k SF, 22.8k MF); Houston 50.8k (41.3k SF, 9.5k MF)

• New Home Sales stayed strong• New home sales +8.1%

• DoM 93

• MOI 5.1

• Average price -0.4%

• Median price +0.2%

• Price/sq. ft. +2.9%

35

2018 Percent Changes in Key Housing Measures

36

Sales

Average

Price

Median

Price

Months

Inventory

Median

Price/sf

Texas 1.7% 3.7% 4.5% 9.8% 5.0%

Austin 1.4% 4.2% 3.9% 9.7% 3.9%

DFW -2.4% 4.1% 3.9% 19.7% 5.7%

Houston 3.4% 2.7% 3.1% 13.5% 4.2%

San

Antonio 2.9% 4.2% 5.2% 8.0% 5.5%

CS-B -1.6% 5.0% 2.6% 19.7% 2.3%

Source: TAR Data Relevance Program; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

2019 Home Market SlowdownFactors that may create a drag on home-buying demand

• Limited inventory availability

• Higher prices - affordability

• Increasing interest rates

• Concerns about general economy –fear of recession or jobs

• Stock market volatility

• Negative press coming off record year(s)

37

December Sales in Texas by MSA (Y/Y Percent Change)

Texas (-6.9% Dec.,

+1.7% Year)

DFW (-10% Dec.,

-2.4% Year)

Houston (-4.2% Dec.,

+3.4% Year)

Austin (-12.7% Dec.,

+1.4% Year)

San Antonio (-3.1%

Dec., +2.9% Year)

Sources: Texas Association

of Realtors® MarketViewer;

Real Estate Center at Texas

A&M University

December Avg. Price/sq.ft. by MSA(Y/Y Percent Change)

Prices continue

to increase, but

a slower rate

Sources: Texas Association

of Realtors® MarketViewer;

Real Estate Center at Texas

A&M University


103,344102,789110,830

120,749126,525

126,279

142,940

151,861

177,179

191,189195,568

204,084209,438

224,215

250,380

277,649

304,762

286,778

241,666

221,768211,640213,968

247,680

287,833297,623

309,274

323,661

338,178343,833

347,271

$50,000

$70,000

$90,000

$110,000

$130,000

$150,000

$170,000

$190,000

$210,000

$230,000

$250,000

$270,000

$290,000

$310,000

$330,000

$350,000

$370,000

$390,000

50,000

70,000

90,000

110,000

130,000

150,000

170,000

190,000

210,000

230,000

250,000

270,000

290,000

310,000

330,000

350,000

370,000

390,000

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

p

Sales Avg Price Md Price

2018

Sales 1.7% Prices ~4%

2019p

Sales ~1%, Prices ~3.5%

Annual Texas Home Sales & Prices

40

2010-2018

Sales +64%,

Average Price +49%,

Median Price +59%

Texas Home Sales per 1,000 Households

17.016.617.5

18.819.4

18.9

20.921.8

24.9

26.326.527.327.7

29.4

32.1

34.8

37.6

34.8

28.7

26.0

24.224.1

27.5

31.532.0

32.833.9

35.1

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

199

0

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

Source: TAR Data Relevance Program; US Census Bureau;


1990-2000 Average 20.8

2001-2017 Average 30.6

Texas Median HH Income & Median Home Price Indexed to 1989

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; Haver Analytics; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

2017 Adjusted HH Income +20%

Nominal HH Income +129%

Median Home Price +226%

1989 Median Price = 2.65 x Median HH Income

2017 Median Price = 3.76 x Median HH Income

Texas Months’ Inventory Still Quite Low

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

Ja

n-0

1

Ju

l-0

1

Ja

n-0

2

Ju

l-0

2

Ja

n-0

3

Ju

l-0

3

Ja

n-0

4

Ju

l-0

4

Ja

n-0

5

Ju

l-0

5

Ja

n-0

6

Ju

l-0

6

Ja

n-0

7

Ju

l-0

7

Ja

n-0

8

Ju

l-0

8

Ja

n-0

9

Ju

l-0

9

Ja

n-1

0

Ju

l-1

0

Ja

n-1

1

Ju

l-1

1

Ja

n-1

2

Ju

l-1

2

Ja

n-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ju

l-1

6

Ja

n-1

7

Ju

l-1

7

Ja

n-1

8

Ju

l-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Ju

l-1

9

“Balanced”

Market

Mo. Inventory = Current month’s total listings / 12 mo. moving avg. of monthly sales

Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University (New & Used Homes Sold thru MLS’s)

Seller’s Market Since

June, 2012

11,879

14,270

38,706

64,530

60,366

44,992

53,004

24,626

19,602

5,197

5,087

80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0

2018 Sales

Texas 2018 Sales and Months Inventory by Price

44

3.6

3.2

2.4

2.2

2.7

3.4

3.9

4.5

5.3

7.5

10.3

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0

$0 - $69,999

$70,000 - $99,999

$100,000 - $149,999

$150,000 - $199,999

$200,000 - $249,999

$250,000 - $299,999

$300,000 - $399,999

$400,000 - $499,999

$500,000 - $749,999

$750,000 - $999,999

$1,000,000 +

Current Mos. Inventory


3.5%

4.2%

11.3%

18.9%

17.6%

13.1%

15.5%

7.2%

5.7%

1.5%

1.5%

About 61% of

sales in $100k

to $300k range

Very Tight

Inventory

to $300k

Texas SF Building Permits

38,233

46,209

59,543

69,96470,45270,421

83,13282,228

99,912101,928108,782

111,915

122,913

137,493

151,384

166,203163,032

120,366

81,107

68,230

68,170

67,254

81,926

93,478

103,045105,448

106,511

116,766123,772

127,485

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

199

0

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8p

201

9p

Source: US Census Bureau; NAHB; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M

2015 +2.3%

2016 +1.0%

2017 +9.6%

2018e +6%

2019p +3%

1995-2017 average

104,854/year

Texas SF Building Permits per 1,000 New Households

46

316

401

739

645580

528

1,339

689

347

851

398435

648719

435

585592

714699

809

1,191

1,550

2,018

970

888

1,242

894

455

646

324

602

679668619

731688

745

100

300

500

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

1,700

1,900

2,100

2,300

198

1

198

2

198

3

198

4

198

5

198

6

198

7

198

8

198

9

199

0

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7e

Source: US Census Bureau, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M

1995-2015 average

820/year

Texas MF Building Permits

8,96210,2989,514

15,545

32,23734,68435,720

43,794

56,918

44,716

32,620

38,427

42,40943,081

39,796

44,431

53,894

58,542

49,897

17,375

21,504

32,260

56,40656,644

67,319

69,995

59,34258,34656,596

54,898

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

199

0

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8e

201

9p

Source: US Census Bureau, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M

1995-2016 average 45,444/year

2017 -1.7%; 2018p -3%

Texas Residential Construction Leading and Coincident Indexes

Jan 2000=100

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Jan

-00

Ju

l-00

Jan

-01

Ju

l-01

Jan

-02

Ju

l-02

Jan

-03

Ju

l-03

Jan

-04

Ju

l-04

Jan

-05

Ju

l-05

Jan

-06

Ju

l-06

Jan

-07

Ju

l-07

Jan

-08

Ju

l-08

Jan

-09

Ju

l-09

Jan

-10

Ju

l-10

Jan

-11

Ju

l-11

Jan

-12

Ju

l-12

Jan

-13

Ju

l-13

Jan

-14

Ju

l-14

Jan

-15

Ju

l-15

Jan

-16

Ju

l-16

Jan

-17

Ju

l-17

Jan

-18

Ju

l-18

Jan

-19

Ju

l-19

Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Leading Index

Coincident Index

Total Housing

Permits (12-MMA)

48

49

Dallas-Plano-Irving

Housing Market

50

By Laura Kusisto, Nov. 26, 2018

Empty lots and newly built homes in the Edgestone At Legacy development in Frisco, Texas, last week. LAURA BUCKMAN FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

Source: TR Data Relevance Program; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

44,34945,80745,966

48,008

53,108

58,396

62,502

58,105

49,504

44,721

41,25841,605

49,144

58,38958,645

61,377

63,910

66,252

64,36263,075

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000

$180,000

$200,000

$220,000

$240,000

$260,000

$280,000

$300,000

$320,000

$340,000

$360,000

$380,000

$400,000

$420,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000

70,000

75,000

80,000

85,000

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

p

Sales Avg Price Md Price

2018 sales -2.9%,

Prices 3%

2019p sales -2%,

Prices ~3%

Annual D-P-I Home Sales

51


Dallas-Plano-Irving Months’ Inventory

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Jan

-00

Ju

l-00

Jan

-01

Ju

l-01

Jan

-02

Ju

l-02

Jan

-03

Ju

l-03

Jan

-04

Ju

l-04

Jan

-05

Ju

l-05

Jan

-06

Ju

l-06

Jan

-07

Ju

l-07

Jan

-08

Ju

l-08

Jan

-09

Ju

l-09

Jan

-10

Ju

l-10

Jan

-11

Ju

l-11

Jan

-12

Ju

l-12

Jan

-13

Ju

l-13

Jan

-14

Ju

l-14

Jan

-15

Ju

l-15

Jan

-16

Ju

l-16

Jan

-17

Ju

l-17

Jan

-18

Ju

l-18

Jan

-19

Ju

l-19

52Source TR Data Relevance Program; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M

Seller’s Market Since

May, 2012

Mo. Inventory = Current month’s total listings / 12 mo. moving avg. of monthly sales



$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000

$180,000

$200,000

$220,000

$240,000

$260,000

$280,000

$300,000

$320,000

$340,000

$360,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000

$180,000

$200,000

$220,000

$240,000

$260,000

$280,000

$300,000

$320,000

$340,000

$360,0001

99

0

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

Avg Price Md Price

Since 2010:

Average Price up 59%

Median Price up 78%

Annual D-P-I Home Prices

53

Pre-Recession

Post-

Recession

540

971

3,604

8,094

11,115

10,489

14,041

7,169

5,551

1,347

1,429

16,00014,00012,00010,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0

2018 Sales

D-P-I 2018YTD Sales and Months Inventory by Price

54

1.2

1.8

1.3

1.5

1.8

2.3

3.0

3.6

4.4

4.9

7.4

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0

$0 - $69,999

$70,000 - $99,999

$100,000 - $149,999

$150,000 - $199,999

$200,000 - $249,999

$250,000 - $299,999

$300,000 - $399,999

$400,000 - $499,999

$500,000 - $749,999

$750,000 - $999,999

$1,000,000 +

Current MOI

Source: TR Data Relevance Program; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

0.8%

1.5%

5.6%

12.6%

17.3%

16.3%

21.8%

11.1%

8.6%

2.1%

2.2%

74% of sales in

$100k to $400k

range

Extremely

Tight

Inventory

Dallas-Plano-Irving SF Permits

11,426

9,325

12,291

21,785

20,48120,133

17,546

12,605

9,0769,0969,940

11,189

14,72715,75415,81415,552

17,986

19,334

22,53822,835

25,61525,59524,851

27,281

31,96231,571

28,382

19,397

12,204

9,76410,68110,688

14,694

16,999

18,499

22,018

22,735

25,628

27,166

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

198

0

198

1

198

2

198

3

198

4

198

5

198

6

198

7

198

8

198

9

199

0

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8p

55Source: US Census Bureau; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University


2004-2009

-65%

15 years

1983-1989

-53%

2015 +19%; 2016 +3%; 2017

+12; 2018p +6%

14 years


Dallas County Single-Family Building Permits

8,275

6,354

8,601

14,744

13,48013,477

11,962

8,388

5,2825,3555,640

6,032

7,4107,312

6,3916,063

6,6307,065

8,3678,3928,856

8,3348,006

9,293

10,04610,520

9,941

6,427

3,687

2,7012,7422,569

3,5313,6083,974

4,806

5,1524,946

5,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

198

0

198

1

198

2

198

3

198

4

198

5

198

6

198

7

198

8

198

9

199

0

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8p

56Source: US Census Bureau; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

2005-2011

-76%

1983-1989

-64%

2015 +20%; 2016 +7%; 2017 -4%;

2018p +0%

Dallas-Plano-Irving MF Permits

4,901

3,162

1,848

4,386

10,152

11,47510,612

14,037

17,128

12,698

6,358

9,7819,5528,953

5,615

7,128

8,845

11,767

15,063

4,6073,860

9,520

14,04813,92714,973

24,767

19,089

22,27322,941

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,0001

99

0

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8p

57

2015 +65%; 2016 -23%;

2017 +17%; 2018p +3%

Source: US Census Bureau; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University


D-P-I Annual New Home Sales2017 Big Jump; 2018 Slower

3,9484,309

5,014

5,667

6,210

7,739

10,16410,381

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,0002011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2%

31%

25%

10%

13%16%9%

Source: MetroTex AoR, TAR Data Relevance Project;


D-P-I Annual New Home Median Price2018 Prices Slipping

$237,592

$254,000

$282,000

$309,999

$333,863

$348,983 $351,995 $347,839

$160,000

$180,000

$200,000

$220,000

$240,000

$260,000

$280,000

$300,000

$320,000

$340,000

$360,000

$380,0002011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

-1%1%

5%

8%

10%

11%

7%

Source: MetroTex AoR, TR Data Relevance Project;


D-P-I Months Inventory New & Exiting Homes

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

Jan

-11

Ju

l-11

Jan

-12

Ju

l-12

Jan

-13

Ju

l-13

Jan

-14

Ju

l-14

Jan

-15

Ju

l-15

Jan

-16

Ju

l-16

Jan

-17

Ju

l-17

Jan

-18

Ju

l-18

Jan

-19

60

New Home

Months Inventory

Existing Home

Months Inventory

Source: MetroTex AoR, TAR Data Relevance Project; Real

Estate Center at Texas A&M University

SIOR U.S. Commercial RE Price Index

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

1Q

20

06

3Q

20

06

1Q

20

07

3Q

20

07

1Q

20

08

3Q

20

08

1Q

20

09

3Q

20

09

1Q

20

10

3Q

20

10

1Q

20

11

3Q

20

11

1Q

20

12

3Q

20

12

1Q

20

13

3Q

20

13

1Q

20

14

3Q

20

14

1Q

20

15

3Q

20

15

1Q

20

16

3Q

20

16

1Q

20

17

3Q

20

17

1Q

20

18

3Q

20

18

Source: Society of Industrial & Office Realtors; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

An attitudinal survey of local markets completed by commercial

real estate market experts (SIOR members).

Weak Market Conditions

Strong Market Conditions

CoStar U.S. Repeat-Sale CRE Price Indices(Dec. 2000 = 100)

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

Jan

-98

Jan

-99

Jan

-00

Jan

-01

Jan

-02

Jan

-03

Jan

-04

Jan

-05

Jan

-06

Jan

-07

Jan

-08

Jan

-09

Jan

-10

Jan

-11

Jan

-12

Jan

-13

Jan

-14

Jan

-15

Jan

-16

Jan

-17

Jan

-18

Jan

-19

U.S. Composite Equal Weighted

U.S. Composite Value Weighted̶

Source: CoStar Group; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

CoStar U.S. Repeat-Sale CRE Price Indices(Dec. 2000 = 100) “Value Weighted” by Property Type

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1Q

19

96

1Q

19

97

1Q

19

98

1Q

19

99

1Q

20

00

1Q

20

01

1Q

20

02

1Q

20

03

1Q

20

04

1Q

20

05

1Q

20

06

1Q

20

07

1Q

20

08

1Q

20

09

1Q

20

10

1Q

20

11

1Q

20

12

1Q

20

13

1Q

20

14

1Q

20

15

1Q

20

16

1Q

20

17

1Q

20

18

1Q

20

19

U.S. Office U.S. Industrial U.S. Retail U.S. Multifamily

Source: CoStar Group; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

$0

$40

$80

$120

$160

$200

$240

$280

$320

$360

1Q

2001

1Q

2002

1Q

2003

1Q

2004

1Q

2005

1Q

2006

1Q

2007

1Q

2008

1Q

2009

1Q

2010

1Q

2011

1Q

2012

1Q

2013

1Q

2014

1Q

2015

1Q

2016

1Q

2017

1Q

2018

DFW U.S.

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

1Q

2001

1Q

2002

1Q

2003

1Q

2004

1Q

2005

1Q

2006

1Q

2007

1Q

2008

1Q

2009

1Q

2010

1Q

2011

1Q

2012

1Q

2013

1Q

2014

1Q

2015

1Q

2016

1Q

2017

1Q

2018

DFW U.S.

DFW & U.S. Office Cap Rates

DFW & U.S. Office Avg. Price per Sq. Ft.

Source: Real Capital Analytics; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

$0

$40

$80

$120

1Q

2001

1Q

2002

1Q

2003

1Q

2004

1Q

2005

1Q

2006

1Q

2007

1Q

2008

1Q

2009

1Q

2010

1Q

2011

1Q

2012

1Q

2013

1Q

2014

1Q

2015

1Q

2016

1Q

2017

1Q

2018

DFW U.S.

DFW & U.S. Industrial Avg. Price per Sq. Ft.

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

1Q

2001

1Q

2002

1Q

2003

1Q

2004

1Q

2005

1Q

2006

1Q

2007

1Q

2008

1Q

2009

1Q

2010

1Q

2011

1Q

2012

1Q

2013

1Q

2014

1Q

2015

1Q

2016

1Q

2017

1Q

2018

DFW U.S.

DFW & U.S. Industrial Cap Rates

DFW & U.S. Industrial Avg. Price per Sq. Ft.


$0

$40

$80

$120

$160

$200

$240

$280

$320

$360

$400

1Q

2001

1Q

2002

1Q

2003

1Q

2004

1Q

2005

1Q

2006

1Q

2007

1Q

2008

1Q

2009

1Q

2010

1Q

2011

1Q

2012

1Q

2013

1Q

2014

1Q

2015

1Q

2016

1Q

2017

1Q

2018

D-FW U.S.


4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

1Q

2001

1Q

2002

1Q

2003

1Q

2004

1Q

2005

1Q

2006

1Q

2007

1Q

2008

1Q

2009

1Q

2010

1Q

2011

1Q

2012

1Q

2013

1Q

2014

1Q

2015

1Q

2016

1Q

2017

1Q

2018

D-FW U.S.

DFW & U.S. Retail Cap Rates

DFW & U.S. Retail Avg. Price per Sq. Ft.

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%1Q

2001

1Q

2002

1Q

2003

1Q

2004

1Q

2005

1Q

2006

1Q

2007

1Q

2008

1Q

2009

1Q

2010

1Q

2011

1Q

2012

1Q

2013

1Q

2014

1Q

2015

1Q

2016

1Q

2017

1Q

2018

DFW U.S.

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000

$180,000

$200,000

1Q

2001

1Q

2002

1Q

2003

1Q

2004

1Q

2005

1Q

2006

1Q

2007

1Q

2008

1Q

2009

1Q

2010

1Q

2011

1Q

2012

1Q

2013

1Q

2014

1Q

2015

1Q

2016

1Q

2017

1Q

2018

DFW U.S.

DFW & U.S. Apartment Cap Rates

DFW & U.S. Apartment Avg. Price per Sq. Ft.


2019: Cautious Optimism• Uncertain interest rates

• Selective, limited inventory available to sell

• Younger, inexperienced buyers with very different tastes & preferences

• Different marketing and communications to prospective buyers

• Builders/Developers Rethinking Designs & Processes

• Changing loan underwriting requirements and standards

• Pricing difficult both for listings and for sales

• Boomers staying in homes longer: remodeling

68

10th Annual North Texas Realty Symposium

January 25, 2019

North Texas Chapter

Dr. James P. GainesChief Economist

www.recenter.tamu.edu

dr. james p. gaines - texas a&m university · 2018 a very good year - 2019 definite slowdown 3...

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