The Challenge of (Feeding) the World in the 21st Century – An Interdisciplinary Overview

Leman Conference9/16/2014

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Nathan John HagensPost Carbon Institute, Bottleneck Foundation, IIER, U of Minnesota

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~Energy~Environment~Behavior

ENERGY

Our economy uses…..

ANCIENT SUNLIGHT

(Coal, Oil, Natural Gas)

OLD SUNLIGHT

Timber, trees, lumber

CURRENT SUNLIGHTCrops, animals, wind, solar, etc.

Source: “Green Growth an Oxymoron?” IIER 2011

12 gallons of gasoline is equal to 1000 people working for one day…

150 Horse 1/10 Horse

1 Horse45 Horse

Wages Profits

# PeoplePrice of Goods

The key story of industrialization was adding large amounts of cheap energy to replace activities humans previously did

30 15 30 300kWh 700kWh

$3/hr $5/hr $15/hr

The Benefits of Cheap Energy….

...

.

-$10.00

$10.00

$30.00

$50.00

$70.00

$90.00

25 50 100 400 800

Units of mechanical labor used to replace human labor0

5 cents kWh10 cents kWh15 cents kWh20 cents kWh

...

.

-$10.00

$10.00

$30.00

$50.00

$70.00

$90.00

25 50 100 400 800

Units of mechanical labor used to replace human labor0

5 cents kWh10 cents kWh15 cents kWh20 cents kWh

...

.

-$10.00

$10.00

$30.00

$50.00

$70.00

$90.00

25 50 100 400 800

Units of mechanical labor used to replace human labor0

5 cents kWh10 cents kWh15 cents kWh20 cents kWh

Human Labor Replacement

New resource Conversions

Resource/Energy Efficiency

NewEnergy Creation

How does technology relate to energy?

Higher quality

Lower quality

Low cost

High cost

Energy price history (Europe)

U.S. field production of crude oil, by source, 1860-2013, in millions of barrels per day. Source: James Hamilton 2014

Fossil

Hydrocarbons

Renewables

ENVIRONMENT

Great Grandpa Carlson

Credit: Adapted from Richard Feely (NOAA), Pieter Tans, NOAA/ESRL (www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends) and Ralph Keeling, Scripps Institution of Oceanography (scrippsco2.ucsd.edu)

Environmental Working Group 2011

GHG emissions – It’s complicated…

3Escape from the Maternity Pens

What’s an Armadillo For?

BEHAVIOR

BEHAVIOR IS BEST UNDERSTOOD THROUGH THE LENS OF EVOLUTION

FROM MACLEAN: THE TRIUNE BRAIN

HOMO SAPIENSEVOLVED AMIDST

SCARCITY

Graphic Credit: Dr. Peter Whybrow – UCLA – Author of “American Mania”

Optimally, our brain regions work in concert. But the older the brain part, the more potential it has to trump our behaviour

A) PREFERENCE FOR THE PRESENT

I wonder if those tree branches will be sweeter and bigger next week. Guess I’ll never know…

Wooohooo!!! I can’t wait to see what my grandkids look like!!!!!!

B) STATUS/SEXUAL SELECTION

IS BIGGER BETTER?

• Would you prefer a 4,000 sq ft house in a neighborhood of 6,000 sq ft houses?

• Or would you prefer a 3,000 sq ft house in a neighborhood of 2,000 sq ft houses?

• (Prof Robert Frank)

C) ADDICTION/HABITUATION

UNEXPECTED REWARD IS KEY DRIVER !!!!!!!

The “Wanting ” feels better than the “Having”(The dopamine system is stronger than the opioid system)

Supernormal Stimuli

Drawing adapted from stuartmcmillen.com

1700 2014A long time ago

The energy in fossil fuels has led to an exponential increase in our ‘grab-bag’ of unexpected returns. Novelty is everywhere.

Facebook, Twitter, heli-skiing, NASCAR, etc

Bread, butter and ale

A visit from a cousin

Riding a horse

Model T Ford

An antelope track

Exercise

Watch TV

Save climate

Vacation

SaladBurger

Video Game

Homework

Pizza…BeerTwitterFacebookFootball gameNapFacebookEmailNapBeer

Borrowing from the future?

Source: Juliet Schor, The Overspent American: Upscaling, Downshifting, and the New Consumer

D) COGNITIVE BIASES

1. We value the present disproportionately more than the future via steep discount rates.2. We easily become distracted by and habituated to readily available novelty. 3. Via natural selection, we are programmed to compete for RELATIVE status (and resources) by whatever metric our current environment dictates.4. Cognitive biases. –Our brains are like swiss army knivesand rationality is the exception not the rule.

BEHAVIOR OVERVIEW

Synthesis

+OIL

We turn

energy and resources

Into dollars…and dollars into feelings

+ waste

The Human EcosystemPast, present and FUTURE

Income development 2002-2012, U.S. census data (www.census.gov), graphic IIER

For most people “growth” is already over…

30 min 15 min 3 min0 300kWh 700kWh$3/hr $5/hr $15/hr

Model /data IIER

Energy/Capita vs. % Very Happy – (worldvaluesurvey.org)

Conclusions

1) Money is a marker for energy and natural resources. In the long run energy is what we have to budget and spend!

2) For most people growth is already over. But this is only growth in material stuff.

3) There is no shortage of energy but a longage of expectations. And we don’t need ‘more energy’ to be ‘more happy’

4) Biology determines what we need, culture dictates how we get it.

5) In your lifetimes we will likely go towards a lower consumption, more local and regional future.

6) We are still incredibly rich by historic standards and have the most knowledge and science ever assembled about our supply and demand constraints and opportunities.

Summary

1. More skills and knowledge applicable and relevant to a future with ‘less’ stuff and ‘more’ environmental constraints

2. We need detailed expertise and continued specialization, but perhaps the academy can stop rewarding hyperspecialization associated with reductionism.

3.Develop a holistic awareness of our human relationship to the natural world and use that as a basic platform from which you work

4. Don’t be afraid to have and defend an unpopular viewpoint. A highly-educated, disciplined mind is a terrible thing to waste.

5. Perhaps new rules for tenure track or successful businesspeople to have a prosocial ‘capstone’ project when they turn e.g. 60

Some Suggestions for the vets/professors

1. Learn as much as you can and acquire knowledge. Especially in natural sciences

2. Start thinking, at a young age in terms of ‘real capital’

3. Observe, listen, experience and then think for yourselves.

4. We need technology (not new gadgets) to help us transition to a more sustainable arrangement with the planet and eachother. But this might equally come from the ‘demand’ side as from the ‘supply’. You have to be the key architects of how this unfolds

5. Someone (in the very near future) has to ‘wear the adult pants’ and look at our predicament using multiple lenses instead of just the one ‘profit’ lens.

Some Suggestions for the young adults

A Longer Term Lens

“We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.” Albert Einstein

Thank you…