the converging economic and environmental crises - a pep talk for those paying attention - nate...
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The slides of my latest speech: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_hNi-7EjsH4#t=3580 were a bit washed out. I upload them here if anyone wanted to see clearer details.TRANSCRIPT
The converging economic and environmental crises.
MCAD7/10/2014
Nathan John Hagens, Director: Bottleneck Foundation, IIER, ISEOF
*
Salomon Brothers training Class 1992
FIRST PRINCIPLES
OVERVIEW• Introduction• First Principles
– Energy– Money/economics– Human behavior
• Synthesis: the present and the future
• What to do? – What am I doing– What can you be doing?– What can Minnesota be doing?
Source: “Green Growth an Oxymoron?” IIER 2011
Ahem. The Cobb Douglas function fully explains growth and is solely based on capital (K) and population (P) and productivity factor (b).
Hundreds of energy
150 Horse 1/10 Horse
1 Horse45 Horse
30 15 30 300kWh 700kWh
$3/hr $5/hr $15/hrModel /data IIER
Wait son. There are plenty of energy and resources and they get cheaper over time. More money and more technology will access all the energy we need.
Yes but the US is going to be the new Saudi Arabia. Bakken Shale, etc – we literally have hundreds of years of fossil fuels in the ground.
Retrieved from Ourfiniteworld.com 7/10/2014 Datasource EIA 2014
Energy price history (Europe)
5% of GDP
19 10% of GDP
9
OVERVIEW• Introduction• First Principles
– Energy
–Money/finance– Human behavior
• Synthesis: the present and the future
• What to do? – What am I doing– What can you be doing?– What can Minnesota be doing?
Excuse me sir. Economics textbooks clearly state that banks only act as intermediaries…
Declining debt productivity
35
IIER.CH
How many GDP$ for each $ of new debt?
19541956
19581960
19621964
19661968
19701972
19741976
19781980
19821984
19861988
19901992
19941996
19982000
20022004
20062008
2010 -
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20 U.S. sustainability of new debt (3-year moving average)
actual debt sustainability minimum
GDP
grow
th p
er $
of n
ew n
on-fi
nanc
ial d
ebt (
nom
inal
)
minimum requirement for long term sustainable credit growth
Private and public sector debt growth (without financial sector) Sources: U.S. Federal Reserve, BEA, IIER calculations
Debt sustainability acts as a measure of the long-term viability of debt and compares economic growth vs. non-financial credit volume growth
China
Brazil, IndiaEurope
A micro and macro lens for debt
OVERVIEW• Introduction• First Principles
– Energy– Money/economics
–Human behavior
• Synthesis: the present and the future
• What to do? – What am I doing– What can you be doing?– What can Minnesota be doing?
BEHAVIOR IS BEST UNDERSTOOD THROUGH THE LENS OF EVOLUTION
FROM MACLEAN: THE TRIUNE BRAIN
HOMO SAPIENSEVOLVED AMIDST
SCARCITY
Graphic Credit: Dr. Peter Whybrow – UCLA – Author of “American Mania”
Optimally, our brain regions work in concert. But the older the brain part, the more potential it has to trump our behaviour
A) STEEP DISCOUNT RATES
I wonder if those acacia branches will be sweeter and bigger next week. Guess I’ll never know…
Wooohooo!!! I can’t wait to see what my grandkids look like!!!!!!
A) STATUS/SEXUAL SELECTION
IS BIGGER BETTER?
• Would you prefer a 4,000 sq ft house in a neighborhood of 6,000 sq ft houses?
• Or would you prefer a 3,000 sq ft house in a neighborhood of 2,000 sq ft houses?
• (Prof Robert Frank)
C) SUPERNORMAL STIMULI & HABITUATION / ADDICTION
http://www.stuartmcmillen.com/comics_en/supernormal-stimuli/#page-6
UNEXPECTED REWARD IS KEY DRIVER
Dr Wolfram Schultz testing on chimpanzees – Cambridge University 2003
The “Wanting ” feels better than the “Having”
(The dopamine system is stronger than the opioid system)
Exercise
Watch TV
Save climate
Vacation
SaladBurger
Video Game
Homework
Pizza…BeerTwitterFacebookFootball gameNapFacebookEmailNapBeer
D) COGNITIVE BIASES
The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts. --- Bertrand Russell
Homo oecinomicus is self-interested and super-rational. Otherwise micro-economics wouldn’t make sense.
Beliefs…
God/ wormsNatural limits/ No limits Ford/Chevy
Climate Change/ Denial
Humans!!!! /other speciesThe Future/
This weekend
Economic growth/ degrowth
Finite NaturalResources
E) MAXIMUM POWER
“What took place in the early 1500s was truly exceptional, something that had never happened before and never will again. Two cultural experiments, running in isolation for 15,000 years or more, at last came face to face. Amazingly, after all that time, each could recognize the other’s institutions. When Cortés landed in Mexico he found roads, canals, cities, palaces, schools, law courts, markets, irrigation works, kings, priests, temples, peasants, artisans, armies, astronomers, merchants, sports, theatre, art, music, and books. High civilization, differing in detail but alike in essentials, had evolved independently on both sides of the earth.”
Ronald Wright, A Short History of Progress (2004, 50-51)
F) EMERGENT PROPERTIES
"Selfishness beats altruism within groups. Altruistic groups beat selfish groups. Everything else is commentary.“
D.S. Wilson and E.O. Wilson
1. We value the present disproportionately more than the future via steep discount rates.2. We easily become distracted by and habituated to readily available novelty. 3. Via natural selection, we are programmed to compete for RELATIVE status (and resources) by whatever metric our current environment dictates.4. Cognitive biases. –Our brains are like swiss army knives5. We are not sentient or sapient in aggregate but follow the momentum of the ‘hive’.
DEMAND OVERVIEW
Fitness Maximizers
AdaptationExecutors
200,000 hominid Generations…. !
The currency is…..
OVERVIEW• Introduction• First Principles
– Energy– Money/finance– Human behavior
• Synthesis: the present and the future
• What to do? – What am I doing– What can you be doing?– What can Minnesota be doing?
+OIL
We turn
energy and resources
Into dollars…and dollars into feelings
+ waste
The Human EcosystemPast, present and FUTURE
Credit: Adapted from Richard Feely (NOAA), Pieter Tans, NOAA/ESRL (www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends) and Ralph Keeling, Scripps Institution of Oceanography (scrippsco2.ucsd.edu)
Source: Stuart Staniford: EarlyWarn
“A central finding of WGIII is that growth of income has beenthe largest single driver of emissions.” Victor, Science July 2014.
US Going it alone?
Kintisch – Science July 2014
Jeez.. Really?
1886-2007
1886-2007
GROWTH
Income development 2002-2012, U.S. census data (www.census.gov), graphic IIER
For most people growth is already over…
112
IIER.CH
Belo
w in
flatio
n in
tere
st ra
tes
Dire
ct li
quid
ity to
insti
tutio
ns a
t ris
k (c
ount
ries/
bank
s)
Gua
rant
ees
for c
redi
t mar
kets
(h
ousi
ng, s
tude
nts)
Expl
icit
and
impl
icit
too-
big-
to-fa
il gu
aran
tees
On-
goin
g go
vern
men
t defi
cit
spen
ding
Cent
ral b
ank
bala
nce
shee
t ex
pans
ions
Now, systems need permanent support
Financial system
Physical base
Our Economic “Pie”
Our Economic “Pie”
More money, less benefits?More energy, less benefits?
Fossil
Hydrocarbons
Renewables
Real Cost of Capital
Graphic Rune Likvern, Nate Hagens
2.
Australia could slash its carbon emissions to zero by 2050 and still experience average economic growth of 2.4% a year, according to a UN-backed study.http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/jul/10/zero-carbon
Natural gas claimed as a bridge to clean energy future
Neonicotinoids blamed for colony collapse disorder.
Etc.
SocialEquity
Finance, etcBiodiversity
Climate
OA
Geopolitics
Natural Resources
Energy
Intergenerational Equity
Interspecies/ecosystems equity
Energy/Capita vs. % Very Happy – (worldvaluesurvey.org)
1) Money is marker for energy
2) For most people growth is already over.
3) No shortage of energy but longage of expectations.
4) Biology determines what we need, culture determines how we get it.
5) A lower consumption, more local and regional future.6) What sort of a future do we want? What are we willing to
give up?7) On some key risks ‘seeing a smoking gun’ will be too late
Conclusions
OVERVIEW• Introduction• First Principles
– Energy– Money/finance– Human behavior
• Synthesis: the present and the future
• What to do? – What am I doing– What can you be doing?– What can Minnesota be doing?
Energy/Renewables
Economy/Jobs/Income Biodiversity
Climate Change
OceanAcidificationSocial
Equity
FutureGenerations
Finite NaturalResources
What Am I doing?
“ECOJEDI ”
What Can YOU be doing?
ENVIRONMENT
ENVIRONMENT
RESILIENCE/ END of GROWTH
ENVIRONMENT
RESILIENCE/ END of GROWTH
ENVIRONMENT
RESILIENCE/ END of GROWTH
PSYCHOLOGICAL
ENVIRONMENT
RESILIENCE/ END of GROWTH
PSYCHOLOGICAL
Efficiency…Renewables..Divestment…
ENVIRONMENTPSYCHOLOGICAL
RESILIENCE/ END of GROWTH
What to Do?Embrace Life
What to Do?Embrace Life
Assert control
"Biological Basis of the Stress Response" by James P. Henry, Integrative Physiological and Behavioral Science, January-March, 1992, volume 27, Number 1, pages 66-83
What to Do?Embrace Life
Assert control
Think/act in terms of real capital
What to Do?Embrace Life
Assert control
Think/act in terms of real capital
Take back language
What to Do?Embrace Life
Assert control
Learn something new, learn something old
Think/act in terms of real capital
Take back language
What to Do?Embrace Life
Give Something Up
Assert control
Learn something new, learn something old
Think/act in terms of real capital
Take back language
What to Do?
Know thy reptile
Embrace Life
Give Something Up
Assert control
Learn something new, learn something old
Think/act in terms of real capital
Take back language
Pizza…BeerTwitterFacebookFootball gameNapFacebookEmailNapBeer
What to Do?
Know your reptile
Embrace Life
Give Something Up
Assert control
Learn something new, learn something old
Buy solar, but not only as supply
Think/act in terms of real capital
Take back language
“Dammit we wasted a day of sunlight”
What to Do?
Know your reptile
Embrace Life
Give Something Up
Assert control
Learn something new, learn something old
Buy solar, but not only as supply
Think/act in terms of real capital
Personally Divest
Take back language
What to Do?
Know your reptile
Embrace Life
Give Something Up
Assert control
Learn something new, learn something old
Buy solar, but not only as supply
Choose your tribe
Think/act in terms of real capital
Personally Divest
Take back language
Sociopaths driving train – all we can do is find a car w the right people we want to travel with
What to Do?
Know your reptile
Be Prosocial
Embrace Life
Give Something Up
Assert control
Learn something new, learn something old
Buy solar, but not only as supply
Choose your tribe
Think/act in terms of real capital
Personally Divest
Take back language
What to Do?
Know your reptile
Be Prosocial
Embrace Life
Give Something Up
Assert control
Learn something new, learn something old
Like yourself
Buy solar, but not only as supply
Choose your tribe
Think/act in terms of real capital
Personally Divest
Take back language
Environment/economic clues
Political acceptance
Source/Sink stocks
Dear Myself,
I don’t know when or where or how I will have to act, but I will not accept dead oceans and ecosystems, etc……………………………………………………………………………………………………………..When the moment comes, count me in.
Sincerely
What can Minnesota be doing?
Let’s get started…
There could be a great future in this place. Different but great.