dr robert phaal - introduction to technology roadmapping and the t-plan method
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Introduction to technology roadmapping and the T-Plan method Best Practice Workshop: Technology Roadmapping Brno, 5 February 2013 Dr Robert Phaal (Centre for Technology Management)TRANSCRIPT
Introduction to technology roadmapping and the T-Plan method
Best Practice Workshop: Technology RoadmappingBrno, 5 February 2013
Dr Robert PhaalCentre for Technology Management
Topics
• History and concept of roadmapping
• Example roadmaps
• Generalisation and customisation
• Workshop methods
Business Premier Database, Beeton, D (2007)
20051952
0
2500
1945 CTM research•‘‘‘‘Fast-start’’’’• Customisation
• Integration
• Visualisation
1987Motorola
1991ITRS
1997Philips,EIRMA
2003UN
2014?
Information
structure
Graphical
style
Roadmap
‘‘‘‘lens’’’’Business /
strategic issue
Roadmaps as ‘‘‘‘strategic lenses ’’’’
Understanding &
communication
Subcarrier function
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991Year
Tuning Push button Push button - Synthesizers Touch pad - Synthesizers Voice actuated
Selectivity Ceramic resonators SAWs Digital signal processors
Stereo Paging Data Maps
IC technology Linear 5u CMOS 3u CMOS 1u CMOS
Display LEDs Liquid crystal Fluorescence
Vehicular LAN Single wire Glass fibre
Digital modulation 500 kHz bandwidth
PRODUCTS
RECEIVER 1 RECEIVER 2 RECEIVER 3 NEXT GENERATION FUTURE GENERATION
Stereo Plus:
Scan
Seek
Plus:
Personal paging
Plus:
Stock market Road information Remote amplifiers Remote controls
A NEW SERVICE
Super Hi Fi
Local maps
Motorola Roadmap Matrix
Source: Willyard & McClees, 1987
Report + summary graphic Updated frequently
Consensus-based roadmap + ‘‘‘‘minority report ’’’’
Lucent Technologies technology roadmap
Albright & Kappel (2003)
Lucent Technologies technology roadmapping approach
Source: Richard Albright The Albright Strategy Group, www.albrightstrategy.com
Philips (modern ‘‘‘‘standard ’’’’ format)
EIRMA, 1997
International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors , 2003
http://public.itrs.net/
‘‘‘‘Red brick wall’’’’
http://www.sony.net/Products/SC-HP/cx_news/vol34/featuring1.html
Sony DRAM Roadmap #1
http://www.sony.net/Products/SC-HP/cx_news/vol34/featuring1.html
Sony DRAM Roadmap #2
Japanese METI roadmap
www.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk/roadmapping
http://panasonic.co.jp/pmc/company/en/cc_0005.html
Panasonic Mobile Communications Roadmap
www.modilis.com/roadmap.htm
Display technology roadmap
“Untangling the future”, Paul Saffo, Business2.0, June 2002, www.business2.com
Technology convergence roadmap
“Particle physics – roadmap to the future”, F. Giman, SLAC Summer Institute on Particle Physics, Aug. 2-13 2004.
Particle physics roadmap
Past Short-term Medium-term Long-term Vision
Time
Market
Business
Product
Service
System
Technology
Science
Resources
Functional perspectives
(Roadmap
architecture)
Route(s) forward
Knowledge
types
When?
What?
How?
Push
Pull
Information
types
Drivers
Strategy
Needs
Form
Function
Performance
Solutions
Capabilities
Resources
Why?
Roadmap framework
(Supports integrated and aligned
strategic and innovation planning)
Key questions: 2) Where are
we now?
3) How can we
get there?
1) Where do
we want to go?
Typical
viewpoints
Commercial &
strategic
perspectives
Design,
development &
production
perspectives
Technology &
research
perspectives
Roadmapping: a general-purpose ‘‘‘‘strategic lens ’’’’
“Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?” – Alice
"That depends a good deal on where you want to get to” – Cheshire Cat
"I don't much care where” – Alice
"Then it doesn't matter which way you go” – Cheshire Cat
Lewis Carroll, Alice in Wonderland, 1865
2) Where are we now?
?
?
?
3) How can we get there?
?c) How can we do it?
?b) What should we do?
?a) Why do we need to act?
(When?)
?
?
?
1) Where do we want to go?
Time
Fundamental questions
Technology roadmappingTwo extremes
1. Market ‘‘‘‘pull’’’’- How to reach a goal?
• Planning
• Market focus
• Assumes product market opportunity
• Deterministic
• Convergent
• Customer driven
2. Technology ‘‘‘‘push’’’’- What opportunities could arise?
• Technology focus
• Looking for opportunities
• Open ended
• Divergent
• Intensive - Short term attack strategy
• Prompted by new business start, major strategic change or new competitive
threat
• Multidiscipline team meet several times to “complete” roadmap (and make
strategic decisions)
• Part of the Business Fabric - Culture driven
• Develop and maintain roadmaps as part of periodic team meetings
• Review roadmaps at periodic strategy checks and updates
• Use roadmaps to monitor and run ongoing business
Source:Richard Albright
ex-Lucent Technologies
Two styles of technology roadmapping
Planning horizon
Time
Uncertainty / risk of
prediction / investment
Short term Medium term Long term
Operations Innovation Strategy
qualitative focusquantitative focus
What to manufacture?
How many of each model?
What materials to order?
Which products?
Which markets?
What cost?
Which technologies?
New (?):
- Markets
- Products
- Technologies
- Capabilities
- Organisational structures
- Distribution channels
- Competition
Process funnel (e.g. strategy, new product development)
Requirements fluid
Concepts fuzzy
Many unknowns
Many options
Many assumptions
Few constraints
Scenarios
Requirements clear, stable
Concepts clear, stable
Fewer unknowns, risks understood
Fewer options, greater constraints
? ?
?
? ?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
Effort
Time
Divergent process Convergent process
Subcarrier function
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991Year
Tuning Push button Push button - Synthesizers Touch pad - Synthesizers Voice actuated
Selectivity Ceramic resonators SAWs Digital signal processors
Stereo Paging Data Maps
IC technology Linear 5u CMOS 3u CMOS 1u CMOS
Display LEDs Liquid crystal Fluorescence
Vehicular LAN Single wire Glass fibre
Digital modulation 500 kHz bandwidth
PRODUCTS
RECEIVER 1 RECEIVER 2 RECEIVER 3 NEXT GENERATION FUTURE GENERATION
Stereo Plus:
Scan
Seek
Plus:
Personal paging
Plus:
Stock market Road information Remote amplifiers Remote controls
A NEW SERVICE
Super Hi Fi
Local maps
Roadmaps provide a consistent framework throughout the strategic planning / innovation process
Explore Shape Plan Implement
Market-Technology, Summary-Detail
Iteration
Innovation
System
Structure
(taxonomy)
Scaleable
(hierarchy)
Portfolio
Scenario
STEEPI(Social, Technological,
Economic, Environmental,
Political, Infrastructural
Trends & Drivers)
Linking
grids
SWOT(Strengths,
Weaknesses,
Opportunities,
Threats)
Roadmapping & decision support tools
Porter’’’’s Five Forces
Foresight
Technology Intelligence
tMarket
Business
Product
Service
System
Technology
Resources
Valuation /
Balanced scorecard
www2.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk/ctm/t_cat/index.htm
www.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk/dstools/
www.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk/research/dmg/tools/
www.npd-solutions.com/bok.html#anchor2114450)
www.valuebasedmanagement.net
www.managing-innovation.com
www.change-management-toolbook.com/mod/book/view.php?id=74
www.systems2win.com
www.roxanneoconnell.com/VIZ/index.html
www.visual-literacy.org/periodic_table/periodic_table.html
Matrix tools
Decision support
Design management
New product development
Value based management
Innovation management
Change management
Continuous improvement
Visualisation methods
Visualisation methods
Management tool resources
Software for technology roadmapping
www.sharpcloud.com
www.sopheon.com
www.lets-focus.com
Accolade Roadmapping
Technology roadmapping processBenefits
• Facilitate development and integration of new technology
• Support for strategy and planning processes
• Identify new business opportunities for exploiting technology
• Provide top level information on the technological direction
• Support communication and co-operation
• Identify gaps in market and technical knowledge
• Support sourcing, resource allocation, risk management
and exploitation decisions
Willyard and McClees (1987), ‘‘‘‘Motorola's Technology Roadmap process’’’’, Research Management, Vol 30, No 5, pp13-19
Groenveld (1997) ‘‘‘‘Roadmapping integrates business and technology’’’’, Research Technology Management, Vol 40, No. 5, pp. 48-55
EIRMA (1997) ‘‘‘‘Technology Roadmapping - delivering business vision’’’’, Working Group Report No 52, European Industrial Research Management Association, www.eirma.org
de Laat and McKibbin (2003), ‘‘‘‘The effectiveness of technology road mapping - building a strategic vision’’’’, Technopolis, Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs.
Special journal editions on roadmapping (multiple company cases and academic perspectives):
• Research Technology Management, Part 1 - Vol. 42, No. 2, March 2003; Part 2 - Vol. 47, No. 2, 2004 (5 papers, including experience
from Domino Printing Sciences, General Motors, Lucent Technologies, Motorola, Roche, Rockwell Automation and Royal Mail)
• Technology Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 71, No. 1-2 , 2004, nine papers
• International Journal of Technology Intelligence and Planning, Vol. 9, No. 2, 2007, six papers, including Philips & Siemens
Guidance notes:
• Industry Canada: ‘‘‘‘Technology roadmapping in Canada: A development guide’’’’ & ‘‘‘‘Evaluating technology roadmaps - a framework for
monitoring and measuring results’’’’, http://www.ic.gr.ca/eic/site/trm-crt.nsf/eng/home
• US Department of Energy guide to applying science and technology roadmapping in environmental management (Draft), DoE-EM50,
July 2000, http://emi-web.inel.gov/roadmap/guide.pdf
Useful references & resources
www.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk/research/ctm/trm
Questions?
‘Fast-start’ workshop methods and T-Plan approach
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Starting upthe TRMprocess
Developing arobust TRM
process
Roll-out ofthe TRMprocess
Keeping the TRM process'alive' on an
ongoingbasis
Other
Res
pons
e (%
)
Source: CTM survey, 1999
Roadmapping challenges
Roadmapping applications (250+)Sector / product• Industrial coding (x3)• Postal services (x10)• Security / access systems• Labelling software• Surface coatings• Medical packaging (x2)• Automotive sub-systems• Power transmission• Railway infrastructure (x3)• National infrastructure• Building controls• Road transport (x2)• Technical consulting (x15)• Automotive / Aerospace• Academic (x3)• Biochemicals• Satellite navigation• Food processing (x5)• Pneumatic systems• Emerging technologies• Automotive (x2)• Retail• Construction• Chemicals• Defence• Packaging (x4)• Packaging• Energy distribution (x2)• Defence• Satellites• Food processing• Sustainable development• Personal• Packaging (x2)• Energy systems• Aerospace• Metrology• Packaging• Biofuels• Consulting (x4)• Computational science• Electronic displays• Printing• Cognitive science
Aims- Product / technology planning- Integration of R&D into business; business plannin g- Product / technology planning- Product / technology planning- New product development process- Business reconfiguration- Service development & planning- Business opportunities of new technology- Capital investment planning and technology inserti on- Research programme planning- New product / service opportunity; business reconf iguration- Defining the national research agenda for the sect or- New product / service development, strategy- Corporate co-operation and synergy- Strategic planning- Research priorities / network development- Research priorities / network development- Research priorities / network development- Innovation strategy- Research priorities- Innovation opportunities- Business and product strategy- Global production strategy- Research priorities- Technology valuation- Technology development & exploitation, innovation, strategy- Sector level trends- Asset management strategy / technology strategy- Development of roadmapping system- Innovation opportunities & synergy- Product / technology planning- Regional network development (technology transfer & skills)- Life planning- Breakthrough cost reduction and innovation strateg y- R&D strategy & system development- Manufacturing technology strategy development- Research prioritisation- Sector trends and priorities- Regional research and policy prioritisation- Regional network development, research and infrastr ucture prioritisation- Research prioritisation- Technology strategy- Development of roadmapping system- Identification of application and innovation opport unities
Variety of sectors, companysizes and types, products and services and technologies
Variety of strategicbusiness goals and
contexts
S-Plan and T-Plan ‘‘‘‘fast-start ’’’’ workshop methods
Time
Level
Portfolio
Option
1c
Topic
1b
T-Plan
2
S-Plan
Landscape
1a
3 PsPeopleto provide knowledgeexperience and insight
Paperto organise processand capture knowledge
Post-it notesand other stationery tofacilitate knowledge sharing
Planning(customisation checklist)• Context: focus, scope, aims and resources
• Roadmap architecture
• Process, including other tools
• Participants
• Workshop scheduling
• Integration: systems, tools, processes & information
• Preparatory work
Plan
ProcessArchitecture
dialogue
Business
owner
TRM process
owner
Roadmapping design: an iterative collaborative proc ess
Domain
knowledge
Business need
Focus, scope, aims
Typical S-Plan workshop
CentralResearch
Group(Europe)
BU 1(Europe Region 1,
Category A)
BU 2(Europe Region 2,
Category C)
BU 5(Europe Region 2,
Category A)
BU 4(USA,
Category C)
BU 3(USA,
Category B)
BU General manager
BU General manager
BU General manager BU General
manager
Aligning central R&D with business innovation in global packaging firm
Interfacemanagers
BU General manager
Roadmapping used to align R&D portfolio with
business unit innovation strategy
• To support the start-up of company-specific
TRM processes
• To establish key linkages between technology
resources and business drivers
• To identify important gaps in market,
product and technology intelligence
• To develop a ‘first-cut’ technology roadmap
• To support technology strategy and planning
initiatives in the firm
• To support communication between
technical and commercial functions
T-Plan aims
Workshop 1
Market
Workshop 2
Product
Workshop 3
Technology
Workshop 4
Roadmapping
• Performance
dimensions
• Market / business
drivers
• Prioritisation
• SWOT
• Gaps
• Product feature
concepts
• Grouping
• Impact ranking
• Product strategy
• Gaps
• Technology
solutions
• Grouping
• Impact ranking
• Gaps
• Linking
technology
resources to
future market
opportunities
• Gaps
• Setting up
the process• Managing the process
• Following on
from the process
T-Plan reference process
German
Spanish
Japanese Chinese (Traditional)
Chinese (Modern)
T-Plan guide
time
Business /Market
Product /Service /
Production
Technology /Resources
Product features
Business / Market drivers
Product features
Technology solutions
TechnologyRoadmap
AnalysisGrids
Roadmap structuring and prioritisation
Step 1
Step 2
Step 3
Step 4
• Small (25 staff) software firm
• Used T-Plan to explore the development of a new
niche software product aimed at the Pharmaceuticals
sector
Softco case example
1. Security
2. Validated software
3. Compliance
4. Services
5. Data management
6. Printing
7. Global solution
8. Flexible implementation
9. Softco requirements
10. User friendly
Product
Feature
Concepts
Market /
Business
Drivers
1. Time to market of drug
2. Integrity of trial
3. Cost of trial
4. Globalisation
5. Leading edge
6. Ease of use
7. Connectivity
8. Future proof
A. Reusability
B. No. 1
C. Time to market
D. M
otivation of staff
E. Improving bottom line
Market Softco
*
* 1 for difficulty, 2 for size
**
** Payback later
1 year after release
Prioritisation:
(scale of 10)
Major Pharmaceutical:
CRO:
9 10 7 6 1 2 6 5
9 10 10 2 8 4 7 75 7 9 6 10
4.5
1.1
4.9
3.8
3.0
9.5
2.5
10.0
2.7
5.2
Softco
4.8
4.2
8.3
4.1
10.0
9.9
5.8
7.5
0.8
4.2
CRO
5.5
4.7
8.7
5.0
10.0
9.6
5.9
6.8
0.7
3.2
Major
Pharmaceutical
Ranking:
= 1 = -1
ΣΣΣΣ Cell scores x Driver priorityNormalised: max score = 10
Example Market-Product grid (Softco)
1. Alliances
2. System architecture
3. Design
4. ‘‘‘‘Soft’’’’ technologies
5. Output technologies
6. Securing technologies
7. Core technologies (re-use)
Technology
Areas
Product
Feature
Concepts
1. Security
2. Validated software
3. Compliance
4. Services
5. Data managem
ent
6. Printing
7. Global solution
8. Flexible im
plementation
9. Softco requirem
ents
10. User friendly
*
* must have
** -ve re-use past, + re-use future
Prioritisation:
- from Grid 1
(scale of 10)
Major Pharmaceutical:
CRO:
Sofco
5.5 4.7 8.7 5.0 10.0 9.6 5.9 6.8 0.7 3.2
4.8 4.2 8.3 4.1 10.0 9.9 5.8 7.5 0.8 4.2
4.5 1.1 4.9 3.8 3.0 9.5 2.5 10.0 2.7 5.2
7.2
10.0
7.1
6.5
6.3
7.6
7.5
Softco
7.6
10.0
7.2
6.8
6.4
8.4
8.2
CRO
7.8
10.0
7.1
6.9
6.4
8.6
8.3
Major
Pharmaceutical
Ranking:
= 1 = -1
ΣΣΣΣ Cell scores x Driver priorityNormalised: max score = 10
* *
**
Example Product-Technology grid (Softco)
Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5P r o d u c t F e a t u r e s
Technology Areas
Other
Resources
Market /
Business
1. Security
2.Validated
Software
3. Compliance
4. Services
5. Data
Management
6. Printing
7. Global
Solution
8. Flexible
Implementation
9. Company
Requirements
10. User
Friendly
1. Alliances
2. Sys. Arch.
3. Design
4. ‘‘‘‘Soft’’’’ Tech.
5. Output Tech.
6. Securing Tech.
7. Core Tech.
Competitor
threat
Competitor
threat? Market
launch
Version 1
release Price: £10
-15K/seatLegislation?
User
rights
Time out
security levels
Digitally
signed labels
Audit
trail
Digital signatured
audit trail
Watermarked
forms & reports
Database
escrow
Biometric
passwords
Validated
Ver. 1
Validated
Ver. 2
Validated
Ver. 330
Protocol
design moduleRandomised
design package
Form
printing
Advanced
automationEnhanced
randomisation
Graphic
representation
of R&S phrases
User format-
ting tool
for forms
Multi-level
training
Upgrade path
for existing
users
User group
& conference
Global
support
Validated protocol
design module
Multi-language
database
Secure
archiving
Statistical
analysis
Billing &
inventory
management
Labelling
libraries
Printer
independent
XML data
format
Windows
printers:
PS / PCLS / PDF
Code 39 & 128
PDF 417
barcodes
Blinded
labels
Label
design
module
Other bar-
code typesLabel set
libraries
UNICODEInter-site
securityUser-docs
(EU lang)
notifica-
tions
Web
enabledXML data
import / export
Far East
language
modules for UI
WAP
Customisable
EU lang
modules
for UI
Windows
platform
support
Multiple
platform
support
User-docs
(Far East)
Internet
compatible
Software
protection
User
documentation
Protocol
design wizardsOn-line
tutorials
Domain expert
partner
Network of
contactsLegal
expertise
Database partners
(harmonised phrases
& legislation)
Appoint
distributors
outside UK
Enhanced
network of
contacts
ERP
link
CH / JAVA / CORBA
component architecture
TCP / IP
CGI / ISAPI
A
spec.
Platform inde-
pendent design
Modular design
UML / OOD
Dev.
Team
stability
Mngmnt
team
leader
GNP
Validatable
procedures
(FDA)
Build
from
source
Test
plan
Develop
sales
model
eChem
tech.
ISO 9000
TickIT
Enhanced
report generation
24 hour
support
Internet
updates
Enhanced
development
team stability
Report
generation
Write once
technology
Scanning &
storage of
hand-written formsRapid &
Pipe ++
Raise
£ x millionRecruitment
software &
management
New
building
TA6 TA6TA6TA5
TA6
TA1
TA1
TA1
TA7
TA1
TA2
TA7
TA5
TA2
TA7
TA2
TA2
TAxlink to Technology
Area x=
Example first-cut roadmap (Softco)
Thank you
Questions?