draft integrated energy planning report · 2013. 12. 4. · 2 draft integrated energy planning...

DRAFT INTEGRATED ENERGY PLANNING REPORT

KEY MODELLING ASSUMPTIONS: MACROECONOMIC AND

DEMOGRAPHIC

DRAFT INTEGRATED ENERGY PLANNING REPORT 2

CONTENT

• MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS

• DEMAND MODEL OUTPUTS

3

MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS

4

• Discount rate

• Aggregate economic growth

• Global oil prices

• Global natural gas prices

DISCOUNT RATE

5

EOCK

Simple function: Weighted Average = aSOC + (1-a)SRTP 12.3% assume a = 0.51

therefore

Economic Opportunity Cost of Capital (ECOK)

Ref Description Variables Households Business Government Foreign

1 Savers: Share Si/Sp 0.1429 0.5055 0.0000 0.3516

2 Nominal interest rate ir 0.1300 0.1156 0.0325

3 Tax rate t 0.3100 0.0000 0.0000

4

Proportion of total borrow ing responsive

to foreign interest rate k 0.4000

5

Return on savings/nominal MC of foreign

borrow ing ns = i*(1-t) 0.0897 0.0000 0.1156 0.0325

6 Inflation rate p 0.0570 0.0570 0.0570 0.0260

7 Real return/real MC of foreign borrow ing rs = (ns-p)/(1+p) 0.0309 -0.0539 0.0555 0.0089

8 Elasticities e 0.5000 0.0000 0.0000 1.5000

Group w eight e*(Si/Sp) 0.0714 0.0000 0.0000 0.5274

Group w eight *real return e*(Si/Sp)*rs 0.0022 0.0047

Sum of Group w eights A 0.5989

Sum of Group w eights * real return B 0.00688

Investors: Share Ij/St 0.6108 0.1369

Nominal interest/earnings rate ir

Real return on investment rr = (ir-p)/(1+p) 0.2120 0.1563

Elasticity h -1.0000 0.0000

Group w eight h*(Ij/St) -0.6108

Group w eight *real return h*(Ij/St)*rr -0.1295

Sum of Group w eights C -0.6108

Sum of Group w eights * real return D -0.1295

EOCK ECOK = (B-D)/(A-C) 11.3%

Note: need to determine whether foreign investment and government investment crowds-out private investment

21 ffEOCK

)/()/(

)/()/(

pj

j

ipi

i

i

jpj

j

iipi

i

i

SISS

SISS

EOCK

he

he Discount rate: 11.3%

ECONOMIC GROWTH

6

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

2012 2013 2014 2015-2020 2021-2031

Short Term Medium Term Long Term

Low growth scenario Moderate growth scenario High growth scenario

GLOBAL OIL PRICES

7

0

50

100

150

200

250

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Ave

rage

An

nu

al W

orl

d O

il P

rice

s

(rea

l 20

10

do

llars

per

bar

rel)

Average World Annual World Oil Price

HIGH OIL PRICE REFERENCE CASE LOW OIL PRICE

The AEO2012 Reference case assumes: 1. OPEC targets a relatively constant

market share of total world liquids production

2. Uncertainty regarding OPEC members’ actual investment and production decisions

3. Uncertainty regarding the degree to which non-OPEC producer countries and countries outside the OECD restrict access to potentially productive resources. This contributes to world oil price uncertainty and the economic viability of unconventional liquids.

GLOBAL NATURAL GAS PRICES

8 Key Modelling Assumptions: Macroeconomic, Demographic and Policy

The Base Case natural gas price projections are based on the “New Policies Scenario” projections for average gas import prices in Europe in the 2011 World Energy Outlook - Historically natural gas prices in the OECD have been closely correlated to oil prices through indexation clauses in long-term

supply contracts and also as a result of competition between gas and oil products in power generation and end-use markets. However different pricing mechanisms in different parts of the world lead to differences in the actual level of prices.

- When oil prices are high, oil-indexed gas prices also tend to be high (with a certain lag period). - However gas prices which are driven by competition and supply/demand dynamics tend to be lower than oil-indexed prices as

has been seen in Europe and the US. - The ‘New Policies Scenario’ assumes that at a global level, existing policies are maintained and that recently announced

commitments and plans, including those yet to be formally adopted, are implemented in a cautious manner

- The High Gas Price projections are based in the ‘Current Policies Scenario’ - The Low Gas Price projections are based on the ‘450 Scenario’

DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONS

9

DEMOGRAPHIC (2)

10

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

4.0

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8

5.0

19

96

19

99

20

02

20

05

20

08

20

11

20

14

20

17

20

20

20

23

20

26

20

29

20

32

20

35

20

38

20

41

20

44

20

47

20

50

# o

f P

ers

on

s p

er

HH

Year

Number of persons per household

DEMOGRAPHIC (3)

11

DEMOGRAPHIC (4)

12

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

19

95

19

98

20

01

20

04

20

07

20

10

20

13

20

16

20

19

20

22

20

25

20

28

20

31

20

34

20

37

20

40

20

43

20

46

20

49

Pe

rce

nta

ge G

row

th

Year

Population Growth

THANK YOU


DEMAND MODEL OUTPUTS

Dr. Rebecca Maserumule

Demand Modelling Specialist


CONTENTS

• MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS

• DEMAND MODEL OUTPUTS


FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION


Non-Energy End Use 1%

Industry (Including Mining)

41%

Transport 27%

Residential 20%

Commerce 8%

Agriculture 3%

Source: Department of Energy, 2009

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR


0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

20

22

20

24

20

26

20

28

20

30

20

32

20

34

20

36

20

38

20

40

20

42

20

44

20

46

20

48

20

50

Fin

al C

on

sum

pti

on

(PJ)

Year

Total Energy Demand

Other Manufacturing

Mining

Nonferrous Metals

Chemicals

Iron and Steel

Source: Model Output

MANUFACTURING SECTOR INTENSITY


-

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.502

01

0

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

20

22

20

24

20

26

20

28

20

30

20

32

20

34

20

36

20

38

20

40

20

42

20

44

20

46

20

48

20

50

PJ/

R (

20

05

bas

e y

ear

)

Year

Manufacturing Energy Consumption/Gross Value Added)

Manufacturing

Source: DoE Analysis

MINING SECTOR INTENSITY


-

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.502

01

0

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

20

22

20

24

20

26

20

28

20

30

20

32

20

34

20

36

20

38

20

40

20

42

20

44

20

46

20

48

20

50

PJ/

min

ing

ind

ex(

20

05

bas

e y

ear

)

Year

Mining Sector Energy Consumption/per Mining index

Mining


RESIDENTIAL SECTOR


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

5002

01

0

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

20

22

20

24

20

26

20

28

20

30

20

32

20

34

20

36

20

38

20

40

20

42

20

44

20

46

20

48

20

50

Fin

al C

on

sum

pti

on

(P

J)

Year

Total Energy Demand

Electricity

LPG

Illuminating Paraffin

Coal


RESIDENTIAL SECTOR INTENSITY


0

5

10

15

20

25

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

20

22

20

24

20

26

20

28

20

30

20

32

20

34

20

36

20

38

20

40

20

42

20

44

20

46

20

48

20

50

Ene

rgy

Use

pe

r H

ou

seh

old

(P

J/h

ou

seh

old

)

Year

Residential Energy Use Per Household

Residential


COMMERCIAL SECTOR


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

20

22

20

24

20

26

20

28

20

30

20

32

20

34

20

36

20

38

20

40

20

42

20

44

20

46

20

48

20

50

Fin

al C

on

sum

pti

on

(P

J)

Year

Total Energy Demand

Electricity

Residual Fuel Oil

LPG

Coal


COMMERCIAL SECTOR INTENSITY


-

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

0.14

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

20

22

20

24

20

26

20

28

20

30

20

32

20

34

20

36

20

38

20

40

20

42

20

44

20

46

20

48

20

50

PJ/

R (

20

05

bas

e y

ear

)

Year

Commercial Sector Energy Consumption/per Gross Value Added)

Commercial


AGRICULTURAL SECTOR


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

20

22

20

24

20

26

20

28

20

30

20

32

20

34

20

36

20

38

20

40

20

42

20

44

20

46

20

48

20

50

Fin

al C

on

sum

pti

on

(P

J)

Year

Total Demand

Diesel

Coal

Electricity


AGRICULTURAL SECTOR INTENSITY


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

20

22

20

24

20

26

20

28

20

30

20

32

20

34

20

36

20

38

20

40

20

42

20

44

20

46

20

48

20

50

PJ/

R (

20

05

bas

e y

ear

)

Year

Agricultural Sector Energy Consumption/per Gross Value Added

Agriculture


TRANSPORT - PASSENGER



TRANSPORT - FREIGHT



THANK YOU


draft integrated energy planning report · 2013. 12. 4. · 2 draft integrated energy planning...

Documents