Drivers for changes

Preparing for the turbulent futures

Slava Kozlov, Summ( )n, for Annual Innovation SummitDutch Design Initiatief Lent, March 4, 2010

The following are a few slides I presented during an Annual

Innovation Summit held by the Dutch Design Initiatief in Lent

(Nijmegen), the Neterlands on March 4, 2010.

The findings presented in the slides are based on the

study conducted by the Desing Initiatief and Summ()n, that

are also described in the Future Telling book (in Dutch)

available to download at the www.designinitiatief.nl

The summit gathered some 150 people from busienss,

academia (both professors and students, and NGOs who

brainstormed about possible futures of the Netherlands and

possible implications for their businesses, organizations, and

developed a range of ideas and concepts for these possible

futures.

All images used in this presentation are the copyright by Slava Kozlov, unless indicated otherwise

Exploring the futures of Holland

Future Telling Game

Drivers for changes

The themes &

the ‘shadows’

New mindsfor new worlds

Playful

transformations

The Netherlands in 2024?

A joint future research project

of Design Initiatief and Summ()n

Gathering ‘facts’ and opinions

about the possible futures

Variety of experts and

data sources used

Use of the STEEP framework

(Social, Technological, Economic,

Environmental, Political)

Onze doelstellingen zullen veranderen. Lagere winstdoelstellingen, lagere rendementen, meer spreiding van investeringen. Eenzijdige doelstellingen zullen steeds meer vervangen worden door win-win doelstellingen.

Nationale overheden zullen steeds minder goed in staat zijn de economische ontwikkeling te beïnvloeden. Het belang van de staat zal steeds minder worden ten opzichte van de regio’s.

Mensen zullen in toenemende mate kiezen om hun passie te volgen, uit vrije wil en door vermindering van georganiseerde arbeid, zelfstandig werken op individuele basis of binnen een netwerk zal een vlucht nemen. We verschuiven we steeds meer naar een creatieve maatschappij.

Research, ontwikkeling en design zal een zelfstandige innovatie industrie, economische activiteit, business en exportproduct worden.

Examples of the ‘future cards’ - short statements about the possible futures,

combining facts and opinions. These cards were later used in the Future Telling game.

(*) the images used in the cards were taken from multiple sources, and the copyrights are not always easy to attribute

SustainabilityBusiness

Knowledge

Politics

QuickTime™ and a decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

Playing the futures

A ‘serious game’ developed

to explore multiple possible futures

Role-playing combined with a

competition/collaboration

for the ‘ideas’ as the resources

Developing diverse scenarios

in an interactive and contextual way

Playing in possible futures with business people. Moments of the game and developed scenarios.

Playing in possible futures with students. Moments of the game and developed scenarios.

Where did the future go?

Where did the future go? This way?

Or that way?

… is not what it used to be

The future…

Connected communities : Verbondenheid Magic technologies : Magische technologie

Omnipresent innovation : Andere wereld New leadership : Nieuw leiderschap

Magische technologieMagic technologies

New and powerful technologies will be developed, and provide us with new unprecedented opportunities.

The (seemingly endless) list:

• Nanotechnologies and new materials

• ‘Cloud‘ computing and powerful AI algorithms

• New robotics and manufacturing tools

• Biotechnologies and genetic engineering

• New medicine: powerful pharmaceuticals and artificial organs

• New energy sources

• …. Technology is a source of hope and enables us to look forward with confidence and optimism.

But…

there are always the ‘Shadows’:

hidden implications

unforeseen consequences

gaps in understanding and actions

Magic technologies?

To reap the fruits of these new technological opportunities, we also have to learn to handle them differently.

We will have to develop and disseminate new knowledge and skills, new ways of interaction and work.

We will have to take into account that new technologies are not only externa factors in our environment, but need to be incorporated into ourselves, through training, learning (and un-learning) to create new types of people and group forms.

Not tackling these issues will result in 'innovation fatigue’, leading to passivity and indecisiveness.

Verbondenheid Connected communities

Digital and "hyper-connected" communities will drastically change the organization of our social and economic environments.

• Increasingly complex social web, the plethora of new tools and mediums, mixed and mashup

• Online communities, online business, online education, online life - now in your pocket!

• The Internet of things supporting new digital tribes and leading to new identities

A networked society has the potential to unite people locally and globally, to help them get involved in their immediate surroundings but also in a more global issues, on national and international scale.

An unprecedented impact on the speed of innovation, both technological and social.

Connected communities ?

These new networked forms will have a strong impact on the way we organize our work and our lives, and bring new dilemmas. • Online crime and terrorism• Privacy, transparency, control and (self-control)• New cultural and social conflicts

Planned innovation will be replaced by an open innovation landscape (or may be a jungle) of emerging initiatives, with many new actors and continuously developing dynamics.

To take a full advantage of these new developments we will have to alter our way of thinking and the way we do many of the activities; we have to change themselves.

I talked about the example of Wikipedia, which many knows and use - but only

passively, not as co-authors

Nieuw leiderschap New leadership

The current regulatory role of government will no longer be sufficient for the size and speed of changes. The Netherlands is increasingly under pressure, and can not wait when a slow, indecisive government will react.

Besides determining what should or shouldn’t be done, and defining the boundaries of the society through laws and rules, the government’s far more important role is in facilitating multiple developments and in coaching and encouraging initiatives.

The question for the government is to develop a platform whereby the Netherlands will gain the opportunity to explore and experiment. Through a variety of individual, innovative initiatives, many opportunities and solutions will be developed.

New leadership ?

We observe a growing departure from the traditional, passive "Oh, the government must solve it!" mentality. The government solves nothing that the Netherlanders can not solve themselves.

The role of both traditional national and local governments will have to change too.

• Are we ready for new fuzziness of rules? • Are current institutions ready to share power?

• Do we nourish/cherish new forms of self- organization?

• How do we deal with EU? With new world powerblocks?

Andere wereld Omnipresent innovation

Almost everything around us will be a subject of constant change. Innovation is no longer an isolated activity, but a continuous and omnipresent process. Everything is to be "redesigned". "Standing still is to stagnate" becomes the prevalent way of working.

This applies not only to the areas which we traditionally see as the domains of innovation (e.g., technological developments, or youth sub-culture) but increasingly penetrates everything around us.

Work, social relationships, knowledge, education, government - everywhere we see the impact of this new mentality, and new new opportunities for transformations.

Omnipresent innovation ?

These transformations provide a wealth of opportunities and possibilities - but this constant, non-stop call for change and re-design will also lead to growing insecurity and feelings of being lost for many. Are we ready to live in a constant flux?

To cope and to benefit from all these changes and transformations we have to also transform ourselves. It is naive to think that all these major changes around us will have make no impact on us - they will, and in many profound and not expected ways.

We need to design new ways to cope with the constantly redesinged world, to master it through rapid, yet safe explorations of new possibilities and opportunities.

Connected communities : Verbondenheid Magic technologies : Magische technologie

Omnipresent innovation : Andere wereld New leadership : Nieuw leiderschap

How to prepare for the turbulent futures ahead?

Sven Geier

Consider personal transformation as the Key.

In conclusion, I used the metaphor of Alice in Wonderland, who had to transform herself -

often literally - to be able to find new solutions and reach her goals.