drury b. crawley, ph.d. portugal - ordem dos …...2016/03/03 · 3/3/2016 4 used for design sizing...
TRANSCRIPT
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Drury B. Crawley, Ph.D.FASHRAE, BEMP, FIBPSA, AIA
Bentley Systems, Inc.
3 March 2016
Portugal Chapter
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IndustrialTransportationResidentialCommercial
EIA 2013, Eurostat 2014
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Weather:the state of the atmosphere with respect to wind,
temperature, cloudiness, moisture, pressure, etc.
Climate: the composite or generally prevailing weather conditions of a region, as temperature, air pressure, humidity, precipitation, sunshine, cloudiness, and winds, throughout the year, averaged over a series of years.
www.dictionary.com
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Building design and performance modeling require weather data to represent climatic conditions of the building location, including:
Peak heating and cooling design conditions for load calculations (temperature, humidity, solar, and wind conditions for design calculations)
Building Performance Simulation Typical hourly weather data Actual hourly weather data for calibration to utility bills Future hourly weather data
In the past, usually only available from ground observing stations Rarely includes solar data Temperature/humidity data generally robust. Wind data is problematic – extremely variable due to terrain and site
obstructions. Other data can be limited or incomplete.
Now, more sources incorporate remote sensing (satellite) data. Accuracy is quite good. Advantage – comprehensive global data, relatively decent grid. Not dependant on ground stations.
In general master data sets such as those from US NCEI are near-real-time. Data posted within a few days.
But design conditions and data for simulation often require summary and further calculations before it can be used Design conditions based on historical period of record Ground observing stations (near real-time data) do not record solar
radiation.
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Used for design sizing of heating, ventilating, air-conditioning, and dehumidification equipment, as well as or other energy-related processes in residential, agricultural, commercial, and industrial applications.
Includes as a minimum dry-bulb, wet-bulb, and dew-point temperature, and wind speed with direction at various frequencies of occurrence.
Typical annual percentiles* used: 99.6% heating dry-bulb temperature and
1% cooling dry-bulb temperature with coincident wet-bulb.
Depending on the application, use other percentiles (99, 0.4, 2, 5) or variables (wind speed, dewpoint, wetbulb, etc.). Monthly cooling percentiles also available (0.4, 2, 5, 10). *Percentiles represent number of hours that the design condition can be expected to be exceeded in a typical year, based on15-30 years of data. 99.6% ≈ 35 annual hours (8760 – (99.6% * 8760)). 1% ≈ 88 annual hours (8760 – (1% * 8760)).
Best source for design conditions: Chapter 14 Climatic Design Information, ASHRAE Handbook-Fundamentals: 6,443 locations through the world Integrated Surface Dataset (ISD) data for stations
from around the world provided by NCDC for the period 1982 to 2010
Updated every four years
Climate changing! Comparing design conditions for 1274 locations between 1977-1986 and 1997-2006: 99.6% annual dry-bulb temperature increased 1.52°C 0.4% annual dry-bulb increased 0.79°C annual dew point increased by 0.55°C HDD base 18.3°C) decreased 237°C-days, CDD base 10°C increased 136°C-days.
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0
20
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160-4
-3.5 -3
-2.5 -2
-1.5 -1
-0.5 0
0.5 1
1.5 2
2.5 3
3.5 4
4.5 5
5.5 6
6.5 7
Difference in 99.6% Heating Dry Bulb Temperature (°C)
Nu
mb
er o
f st
atio
ns
-7.2
-6.3
-5.4
-4.5
-3.6
-2.7
-1.8
-0.9
0.0
0.9
1.8
2.7
3.6
4.5
5.4
6.3
7.2
8.1
9.0
9.9
10.8
11.7
12.6
Difference in 99.6% Heating Dry Bulb Temperature (°F)
Average:1.52°C / 2.74°F
6.9919861977
6.9920061997
6.99 DBDBDB
99.6% heating dry bulb temperature + 0.76 °C + 1.37 °F
0.4% cooling dry bulb temperature + 0.38 °C + 0.68 °F
0.4% dehum. dew point temperature + 0.28 °C + 0.50 °F
Dry bulb temperature range ~ 0 °C ~ 0 °F
Average temperature + 0.41 °C + 0.73 °F
Heating degree-days base 18.3°C / 65°F - 118 °C-day - 212 °F-day
Cooling degree-days base 10°C / 50°F + 68 °C-day + 122 °F-day
14
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2013 ASHRAE Handbook - Fundamentals (SI) © 2013 ASHRAE, Inc.
WMO#: 722190
Lat: 33.64N Long: 84.43W Elev: 313 StdP: 97.62 Time Zone: -5.00 (NAE) Period: 86-10 WBAN: 13874
Annual Heating and Humidification Design Conditions
99.6% 99% DP HR MCDB DP HR MCDB WS MCDB WS MCDB MCWS PCWD
( a ) ( b ) ( c ) ( d ) ( e ) ( f ) ( g ) ( h ) ( i ) ( j ) ( k ) ( l ) ( m ) ( n ) ( o )
(1) 1 -5.8 -3.1 -15.5 1.0 -1.9 -12.7 1.3 0.1 11.1 4.4 10.5 4.4 5.3 320 (1)
Annual Cooling, Dehumidification, and Enthalpy Design Conditions
DB MCWB DB MCWB DB MCWB WB MCDB WB MCDB WB MCDB MCWS PCWD
( a ) ( b ) ( c ) ( d ) ( e ) ( f ) ( g ) ( h ) ( i ) ( j ) ( k ) ( l ) ( m ) ( n ) ( o ) ( p )
(2) 7 9.4 34.4 23.4 33.1 23.3 32.1 23.0 25.2 31.4 24.7 30.4 24.1 29.4 3.9 300 (2)
DP HR MCDB DP HR MCDB DP HR MCDB Enth MCDB Enth MCDB Enth MCDB
( a ) ( b ) ( c ) ( d ) ( e ) ( f ) ( g ) ( h ) ( i ) ( j ) ( k ) ( l ) ( m ) ( n ) ( o ) ( p )
(3) 23.5 19.0 27.4 23.0 18.4 26.8 22.6 17.9 26.5 78.3 31.4 76.0 30.4 74.0 29.8 800 (3)
Extreme Annual Design Conditions
1% 2.5% 5% Min Max Min Max Min Max Min Max Min Max Min Max
( a ) ( b ) ( c ) ( d ) ( e ) ( f ) ( g ) ( h ) ( i ) ( j ) ( k ) ( l ) ( m ) ( n ) ( o ) ( p )
(4) 9.6 8.5 7.7 28.0 -10.0 35.9 2.5 1.8 -11.7 37.3 -13.2 38.3 -14.5 39.4 -16.3 40.7 (4)
Monthly Climatic Design Conditions
Annual Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Hours8 to 4 &
12.8/20.6
2%
Coldest month WS/MCDB
2%
MCWS/PCWDto 99.6% DB0.4%
1%
1%
MCWS/PCWDto 0.4% DB
Enthalpy/MCDB1% 2%0.4%
ColdestMonth
HottestMonth
Humidification DP/MCDB and HR99.6% 99%
Heating DB
0.4% 0.4%
Dehumidification DP/MCDB and HR
ExtremeMaxWB
Extreme Annual DB n-Year Return Period Values of Extreme DBn=20 years n=50 years
ATLANTA MUNICIPAL, GA, USA
HottestMonth
DB Range
Cooling DB/MCWB Evaporation WB/MCDB
Mean Standard deviation n=5 years
0.4%
Extreme Annual WSn=10 years
1%
1% 2%
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Climatic data needed for simulating representative performance from a single year analysis.
TMY (Typical Meteorological Year) approach is most widely used– a composite of months (not all from same year), each representative for the period of record.
Months selected using statistical of indices (daily min, mean, max) dry-bulb temperature, dew-point temperature, wind speed, and total global and direct solar radiation. Each method varies the weightings of the indices based on their importance.
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Actual hourly weather data required to calibrate to utility bills in existing buildings and subsequent evaluation of retrofit alternatives.
Many sources – some providing near-real time data and/or prediction: US NCEI WMO Data Center Weather Underground Weather.com Weather Source
Biggest issue – how complete are the data – does it include temperature, humidity, wind, solar radiation?
USA_VA_Sterling-Washington.DullesUSA_VA_Sterling-Washington.Dulles
00
5050
100100
150150
200200
250250
300300
350350
400400
450450
500500
550550
600600
650650
700700
750750
800800
850850
TM
Y2
TM
Y2
1961
1961
1962
1962
1963
1963
1964
1964
1965
1965
1966
1966
1967
1967
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1968
War
m 1
969
War
m 1
969
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1970
1971
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1972
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1973
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1975
1975
1976
1976
1977
1977
1978
1978
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1979
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1981
1981
1982
1982
1983
1983
Max
198
4M
ax 1
984
1985
1985
1986
1986
1987
1987
1988
1988
1989
1989
Coo
l 19
90C
ool
1990
1991
1991
1992
1992
1993
1993
1994
1994
1995
1995
1996
1996
1997
1997
1998
1998
1999
1999
2000
2000
Min
200
1M
in 2
001
2002
2002
2003
2003
2004
2004
En
d-U
se E
ner
gy
Co
nsu
mp
tio
n (
Meg
ajo
ule
s/m
En
d-U
se E
ner
gy
Co
nsu
mp
tio
n (
Meg
ajo
ule
s/m
22) )
Heating:GasHeating:GasReheat:GasReheat:GasCooling:ElectricityCooling:ElectricityFans:ElectricityFans:ElectricityInterior Lights:ElectricityInterior Lights:ElectricityPlug Loads:ElectricityPlug Loads:ElectricityDHW:GasDHW:Gas
USA_VA_Sterling-Washington.Dulles
0
50
100
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250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
TM
Y2
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
War
m 1
969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
Max
198
419
8519
8619
8719
8819
89C
ool
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Min
200
120
0220
0320
04
En
d-U
se E
ner
gy
Co
nsu
mp
tio
n (
Meg
ajo
ule
s/m
2)
Heating:GasReheat:GasCooling:ElectricityFans:ElectricityInterior Lights:ElectricityPlug Loads:ElectricityDHW:Gas
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CIBSE UK only, 14 locations Derived from reanalysis (downscale of gridded
latitude/longitude) from IPCC (UKCP09) 2020, 2050, 2080 Low, medium, high cases See CIBSE TM48
CCWorldWeatherGen Utility converts an EPW into a IPCC A1FI scenario
morphed file.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
200
1
200
4
200
7
201
0
201
3
201
6
201
9
202
2
202
5
202
8
203
1
203
4
203
7
204
0
204
3
204
6
204
9
205
2
205
5
205
8
206
1
206
4
206
7
207
0
207
3
207
6
207
9
208
2
208
5
208
8
209
1
209
4
209
7
210
0
Pre
dic
ted
Te
mpe
ratu
re C
ha
ng
e, C
Year
CGCM2 A1FI
CGCM2 A2
CGCM2 B1
CGCM2 B2
CSIROmk2 A1FI
CSIROmk2 A2
CSIROmk2 B1
CSIROmk2 B2
HadCM3 A1FI
HadCM3 A2
HadCM3 B1
HadCM3 B2
PCM A1FI
PCM A2
PCM B1
PCM B2
CGCM2
PCM
HadCM3
CSIROmk2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
200
1
200
4
200
7
201
0
201
3
201
6
201
9
202
2
202
5
202
8
203
1
203
4
203
7
204
0
204
3
204
6
204
9
205
2
205
5
205
8
206
1
206
4
206
7
207
0
207
3
207
6
207
9
208
2
208
5
208
8
209
1
209
4
209
7
210
0
Pre
dic
ted
Te
mpe
ratu
re C
ha
ng
e, C
Year
CGCM2 A1FI
CGCM2 A2
CGCM2 B1
CGCM2 B2
CSIROmk2 A1FI
CSIROmk2 A2
CSIROmk2 B1
CSIROmk2 B2
HadCM3 A1FI
HadCM3 A2
HadCM3 B1
HadCM3 B2
PCM A1FI
PCM A2
PCM B1
PCM B2
CGCM2
PCM
HadCM3
CSIROmk2
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Methods Dynamic downscaling Physics-based model used to downscale global climate model results
Analogue scenarios Find existing locations with comparable data to the predicted climate change scenario
results
Time series adjustment (morphing) Shift and stretch the existing data to match the predicted monthly change
Statistical models Stochastic model trained on observed data adjusts data based on altered frequency
distributions of weather variables
Average monthly temperature change (+) Diurnal temperature change (+/-) Cloud cover decrease (more solar radiation) Precipitation changes (+/-)
Los Angeles CA USA TMY2 Autumn Novermber 23 Climate ChangeLos Angeles CA USA TMY2 Autumn Novermber 23 Climate Change
00
55
1010
1515
2020
2525
3030
1:0
0 A
M1
:00
AM
2:0
0 A
M2
:00
AM
3:0
0 A
M3
:00
AM
4:0
0 A
M4
:00
AM
5:0
0 A
M5
:00
AM
6:0
0 A
M6
:00
AM
7:0
0 A
M7
:00
AM
8:0
0 A
M8
:00
AM
9:0
0 A
M9
:00
AM
10
:00
AM
10
:00
AM
11
:00
AM
11
:00
AM
12
:00
PM
12
:00
PM
1:0
0 P
M1
:00
PM
2:0
0 P
M2
:00
PM
3:0
0 P
M3
:00
PM
4:0
0 P
M4
:00
PM
5:0
0 P
M5
:00
PM
6:0
0 P
M6
:00
PM
7:0
0 P
M7
:00
PM
8:0
0 P
M8
:00
PM
9:0
0 P
M9
:00
PM
10
:00
PM
10
:00
PM
11
:00
PM
11
:00
PM
12
:00
AM
12
:00
AM
Hour of DayHour of Day
Te
mp
era
ture
, CT
em
pe
ratu
re, C
Existing Dry Bulb TemperatureExisting Dry Bulb TemperatureA1FI Dry Bulb TemperatureA1FI Dry Bulb TemperatureA2 Dry Bulb TemperatureA2 Dry Bulb TemperatureB1 Dry Bulb TemperatureB1 Dry Bulb TemperatureB2 Dry Bulb TemperatureB2 Dry Bulb Temperature
Los Angeles CA USA TMY2 Autumn Novermber 23 Climate Change
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1:0
0 A
M
2:0
0 A
M
3:0
0 A
M
4:0
0 A
M
5:0
0 A
M
6:0
0 A
M
7:0
0 A
M
8:0
0 A
M
9:0
0 A
M
10
:00
AM
11
:00
AM
12
:00
PM
1:0
0 P
M
2:0
0 P
M
3:0
0 P
M
4:0
0 P
M
5:0
0 P
M
6:0
0 P
M
7:0
0 P
M
8:0
0 P
M
9:0
0 P
M
10
:00
PM
11
:00
PM
12
:00
AM
Hour of Day
Te
mp
era
ture
, C
Existing Dry Bulb TemperatureA1FI Dry Bulb TemperatureA2 Dry Bulb TemperatureB1 Dry Bulb TemperatureB2 Dry Bulb Temperature
Base Diurnal Temperature
Scenario Diurnal Temperature (+/-)
Scenario Delta Temperature (+)
Night-time Temperatures Remain Higher
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Heat Island size and temperature are function of city population
Range is roughly 1-5 C Beyond 5 million people, roughly 5 C Depresses daytime temperature Raises nighttime temperature
Sterling VA (Washington Dulles Airport) TMY2 Spring April 10 Heat Island Sterling VA (Washington Dulles Airport) TMY2 Spring April 10 Heat Island
-5-5
00
55
1010
1515
2020
2525
1:00
AM
1:00
AM
2:00
AM
2:00
AM
3:00
AM
3:00
AM
4:00
AM
4:00
AM
5:00
AM
5:00
AM
6:00
AM
6:00
AM
7:00
AM
7:00
AM
8:00
AM
8:00
AM
9:00
AM
9:00
AM
10:0
0 A
M10
:00
AM
11:0
0 A
M11
:00
AM
12:0
0 P
M12
:00
PM
1:00
PM
1:00
PM
2:00
PM
2:00
PM
3:00
PM
3:00
PM
4:00
PM
4:00
PM
5:00
PM
5:00
PM
6:00
PM
6:00
PM
7:00
PM
7:00
PM
8:00
PM
8:00
PM
9:00
PM
9:00
PM
10:0
0 P
M10
:00
PM
11:0
0 P
M11
:00
PM
12:0
0 A
M12
:00
AM
Hour of DayHour of Day
Tem
per
atu
re, C
Tem
per
atu
re, C
Existing Dry Bulb TemperatureExisting Dry Bulb TemperatureLow HI Dry Bulb TemperatureLow HI Dry Bulb TemperatureHigh HI Dry Bulb TemperatureHigh HI Dry Bulb Temperature
Sterling VA (Washington Dulles Airport) TMY2 Spring April 10 Heat Island
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1:00
AM
2:00
AM
3:00
AM
4:00
AM
5:00
AM
6:00
AM
7:00
AM
8:00
AM
9:00
AM
10:0
0 A
M
11:0
0 A
M
12:0
0 P
M
1:00
PM
2:00
PM
3:00
PM
4:00
PM
5:00
PM
6:00
PM
7:00
PM
8:00
PM
9:00
PM
10:0
0 P
M
11:0
0 P
M
12:0
0 A
M
Hour of Day
Tem
per
atu
re, C
Existing Dry Bulb TemperatureLow HI Dry Bulb TemperatureHigh HI Dry Bulb Temperature
Lower Daytime Temperatures
Temperatures Remain Higher after Sunset
Temperatures Remain Higher until Sunrise
Small, 360 m2, two story office building 14 m2/person Lighting at 13 W/m2
Office Equipment at 8.5 W/m2
Natural gas heating and hot water Electric packaged cooling units Building fabric (opaque and windows) and equipment efficiencies
roughly equivalent to current minimum regulations (ASHRAE Standard 90.1)
US national average pollution emission factors Simulated using EnergyPlus
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USA_VA_Sterling-Washington.Dulles
00
5050
100100
150150
200200
250250
300300
350350
400400
450450
500500
550550
600600
650650
700700
750750
800800
850850
TM
Y2
TM
Y2
1961
1961
1962
1962
1963
1963
1964
1964
1965
1965
1966
1966
1967
1967
1968
1968
War
m 1
969
War
m 1
969
1970
1970
1971
1971
1972
1972
1973
1973
1974
1974
1975
1975
1976
1976
1977
1977
1978
1978
1979
1979
1980
1980
1981
1981
1982
1982
1983
1983
Max
198
4M
ax 1
984
1985
1985
1986
1986
1987
1987
1988
1988
1989
1989
Coo
l 19
90C
ool
1990
1991
1991
1992
1992
1993
1993
1994
1994
1995
1995
1996
1996
1997
1997
1998
1998
1999
1999
2000
2000
Min
200
1M
in 2
001
2002
2002
2003
2003
2004
2004
En
d-U
se E
ner
gy
Co
nsu
mp
tio
n (
Meg
ajo
ule
s/m
En
d-U
se E
ner
gy
Co
nsu
mp
tio
n (
Meg
ajo
ule
s/m
22) )
Heating:GasHeating:GasReheat:GasReheat:GasCooling:ElectricityCooling:ElectricityFans:ElectricityFans:ElectricityInterior Lights:ElectricityInterior Lights:ElectricityPlug Loads:ElectricityPlug Loads:ElectricityDHW:GasDHW:Gas
USA_VA_Sterling-Washington.DullesUSA_VA_Sterling-Washington.Dulles
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
TM
Y2
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
War
m 1
969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
Max
198
419
8519
8619
8719
8819
89C
ool
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Min
200
120
0220
0320
04
En
d-U
se E
ner
gy
Co
nsu
mp
tio
n (
Meg
ajo
ule
s/m
2)
Heating:GasReheat:GasCooling:ElectricityFans:ElectricityInterior Lights:ElectricityPlug Loads:ElectricityDHW:Gas
Predicted Monthly Primary Energy End-Use Consumption, in MJ/m2, in Washington, DC, USA for Baseline and Four Climate Change Scenarios
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Jan
Feb
Ma
rA
prM
ay
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
No
vD
ec
Jan
Feb
Ma
rA
prM
ay
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
No
vD
ec
Jan
Feb
Ma
rA
prM
ay
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
No
vD
ec
Jan
Feb
Ma
rA
prM
ay
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
No
vD
ec
Jan
Feb
Ma
rA
prM
ay
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
No
vD
ec
TMY2 TMY2 TMY2 TMY2 TMY2
A1FI A2 B1 B2
Std Std Std Std Std
End
-Use
Ene
rgy
Con
sum
ptio
n (
Meg
ajou
les/
m2)
USA_VA_Sterling-Washington.Dulles Typical Year Standard and Climate Change Scenarios, Source Energy
Heating:GasReheat:GasCooling:ElectricityFans:ElectricityLights:ElectricityPlug Loads:ElectricitySHW:Gas
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
Low
TM
Y2
Hig
h
Low
TM
Y2
Hig
h
Low
TM
Y2
Hig
h
Low
TM
Y2
Hig
h
Low
TM
Y2
Hig
h
A1FI A2 B1 B2
End
-Use
Ene
rgy
Con
sum
ptio
n (M
egaj
oule
s/m
2)
USA_VA_Sterling-Washington.Dulles Standard and Climate Change, Site Energy
Heating:GasReheat:GasCooling:ElectricityFans:ElectricityLights:ElectricityPlug Loads:ElectricitySHW:Gas
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
Low
TM
Y2
Hig
h
Low
TM
Y2
Hig
h
Low
TM
Y2
Hig
h
Low
TM
Y2
Hig
h
Low
TM
Y2
Hig
h
A1FI A2 B1 B2
End
-Use
Ene
rgy
Con
sum
ptio
n (M
egaj
oule
s/m
2)
USA_VA_Sterling-Washington.Dulles Standard and Climate Change, Source Energy Heating:GasReheat:GasCooling:ElectricityFans:ElectricityLights:ElectricityPlug Loads:ElectricitySHW:Gas
3/3/2016
16
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
Low
TM
Y2
Hig
h
Low
TM
Y2
Hig
h
Low
TM
Y2
Hig
h
Low
TM
Y2
Hig
h
Low
TM
Y2
Hig
h
A1FI A2 B1 B2
End
-Use
Ene
rgy
Con
sum
ptio
n (M
egaj
oule
s/m
2)
USA_VA_Sterling-Washington.Dulles Low Energy and Climate Change, Source Energy
Heating:GasReheat:GasCooling:ElectricityFans:ElectricityLights:ElectricityPlug Loads:ElectricitySHW:Gas
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,000
Low
IWE
C
Hig
h
Low
IWE
C
Hig
h
Low
IWE
C
Hig
h
Low
IWE
C
Hig
h
Low
IWE
C
Hig
h
A1FI A2 B1 B2
En
d-U
se E
ner
gy
Co
nsu
mp
tio
n (
Meg
ajo
ule
s/m
2 )
SGP_Singapore Standard and Climate Change, Source Energy
Heating:Gas
Reheat:Gas
Cooling:Electricity
Fans:Electricity
Lights:Electricity
Plug Loads:Electricity
SHW:Gas
3/3/2016
17
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,000
Low
CW
EC
Hig
h
Low
CW
EC
Hig
h
Low
CW
EC
Hig
h
Low
CW
EC
Hig
h
Low
CW
EC
Hig
h
A1FI A2 B1 B2
En
d-U
se E
ner
gy
Co
nsu
mp
tio
n (
Meg
ajo
ule
s/m
2 )
CAN_ON_Toronto Standard and Climate Change, Site Energy
Heating:Gas
Reheat:Gas
Cooling:Electricity
Fans:Electricity
Lights:Electricity
Plug Loads:Electricity
SHW:Gas
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,000
Low
CW
EC
Hig
h
Low
CW
EC
Hig
h
Low
CW
EC
Hig
h
Low
CW
EC
Hig
h
Low
CW
EC
Hig
h
A1FI A2 B1 B2
End
-Use
Ene
rgy
Con
sum
ptio
n (M
egaj
oule
s/m
2)
CAN_ON_Toronto Standard and Climate Change, Source Energy
Heating:GasReheat:GasCooling:ElectricityFans:ElectricityLights:ElectricityPlug Loads:ElectricitySHW:Gas
3/3/2016
18
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
Low
CW
EC
Hig
h
Low
CW
EC
Hig
h
Low
CW
EC
Hig
h
Low
CW
EC
Hig
h
Low
CW
EC
Hig
h
A1FI A2 B1 B2
En
d-U
se E
ner
gy
Co
nsu
mp
tio
n (
Meg
ajo
ule
s/m
2 )
CAN_ON_Toronto Low Energy and Climate Change, Source Energy
Heating:Gas
Reheat:Gas
Cooling:Electricity
Fans:Electricity
Lights:Electricity
Plug Loads:Electricity
SHW:Gas
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,000
Low
CW
EC
Hig
h
Low
CW
EC
Hig
h
Low
CW
EC
Hig
h
HtIsLo HtIsHi
En
d-U
se E
ner
gy
Co
nsu
mp
tio
n (
Meg
ajo
ule
s/m
2 )
CAN_ON_Toronto Standard and Heat Island, Source Energy
Heating:Gas
Reheat:Gas
Cooling:Electricity
Fans:Electricity
Lights:Electricity
Plug Loads:Electricity
SHW:Gas
3/3/2016
19
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
Low
CW
EC
Hig
h
Low
CW
EC
Hig
h
Low
CW
EC
Hig
h
HtIsLo HtIsHi
En
d-U
se E
ner
gy
Co
nsu
mp
tio
n (
Meg
ajo
ule
s/m
2 )
CAN_ON_Toronto Low Energy and Heat Island, Source Energy
Heating:Gas
Reheat:Gas
Cooling:Electricity
Fans:Electricity
Lights:Electricity
Plug Loads:Electricity
SHW:Gas
Predicted Monthly Primary Energy End-Use Consumption, in MJ/m2, in Toronto, ON, CAN for Baseline and Four Climate Change Scenarios
-5
5
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
rM
ayJu
nJu
lA
ug
Se
pO
ctN
ovD
ec Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
rM
ayJu
nJu
lA
ug
Se
pO
ctN
ovD
ec Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
rM
ayJu
nJu
lA
ug
Se
pO
ctN
ovD
ec Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
rM
ayJu
nJu
lA
ug
Se
pO
ctN
ovD
ec Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
rM
ayJu
nJu
lA
ug
Se
pO
ctN
ovD
ec
CWEC CWEC CWEC CWEC CWEC
A1FI A2 B1 B2
LowEn LowEn LowEn LowEn LowEn
En
d-U
se E
ner
gy
Co
nsu
mp
tio
n (
Meg
ajo
ule
s/m
2 )
CAN_ON_Toronto Typical Year Low Energy and Climate Change Scenarios, Source Energy
Heating:Gas
Reheat:Gas
Cooling:Electricity
Fans:Electricity
Lights:Electricity
Plug Loads:Electricity
SHW:Gas
3/3/2016
20
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,000
2,100
2,200
Low
CW
EC
Hig
h
Low
CW
EC
Hig
h
Low
CW
EC
Hig
h
Low
CW
EC
Hig
h
Low
CW
EC
Hig
h
A1FI A2 B1 B2
En
d-U
se E
ner
gy
Co
nsu
mp
tio
n (
Meg
ajo
ule
s/m
2 )
CAN_NU_Resolute Standard and Climate Change, Source Energy
Heating:Gas
Reheat:Gas
Cooling:Electricity
Fans:Electricity
Lights:Electricity
Plug Loads:Electricity
SHW:Gas
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Jan
Fe
bM
arA
prM
ayJu
nJu
lA
ugS
ep Oct
Nov
Dec Jan
Fe
bM
arA
prM
ayJu
nJu
lA
ugS
ep Oct
Nov
Dec Jan
Fe
bM
arA
prM
ayJu
nJu
lA
ugS
ep Oct
Nov
Dec Jan
Fe
bM
arA
prM
ayJu
nJu
lA
ugS
ep Oct
Nov
Dec Jan
Fe
bM
arA
prM
ayJu
nJu
lA
ugS
ep Oct
Nov
Dec
TMY2 TMY2 TMY2 TMY2 TMY2
A1FI A2 B1 B2
Std Std Std Std Std
En
d-U
se E
ne
rgy
Co
nsu
mp
tion
(M
eg
ajo
ule
s/m
2)
USA_VA_Sterling-Washington.Dulles Typical Year Standard and Climate Change Scenarios, Source EnergyHeating:Gas
Reheat:GasCooling:ElectricityFans:ElectricityLights:ElectricityPlug Loads:ElectricitySHW:Gas
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Jan
Fe
bM
arA
prM
ay Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec Jan
Fe
bM
arA
prM
ay Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec Jan
Fe
bM
arA
prM
ay Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec Jan
Fe
bM
arA
prM
ay Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec Jan
Fe
bM
arA
prM
ay Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec
TMY2 TMY2 TMY2 TMY2 TMY2
A1FI A2 B1 B2
Std Std Std Std Std
En
d-U
se E
ne
rgy
Co
nsu
mp
tion
(M
eg
ajo
ule
s/m
2)
USA_CA_Los.Angeles Typical Year Standard and Climate Change Scenarios, Source Energy
Heating:GasReheat:GasCooling:ElectricityFans:ElectricityLights:ElectricityPlug Loads:ElectricitySHW:Gas
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Jan
Fe
bM
arA
pr
May
Jun
Jul
Au
gS
ep
Oct
No
vD
ec
Jan
Fe
bM
arA
pr
May
Jun
Jul
Au
gS
ep
Oct
No
vD
ec
Jan
Fe
bM
arA
pr
May
Jun
Jul
Au
gS
ep
Oct
No
vD
ec
Jan
Fe
bM
arA
pr
May
Jun
Jul
Au
gS
ep
Oct
No
vD
ec
Jan
Fe
bM
arA
pr
May
Jun
Jul
Au
gS
ep
Oct
No
vD
ec
IWEC IWEC IWEC IWEC IWEC
A1FI A2 B1 B2
Std Std Std Std Std
En
d-U
se
En
erg
y C
on
su
mp
tio
n
(Me
ga
jou
les
/m2 )
SGP_Singapore Typical Year Standard and Climate Change Scenarios, Source Energy
Heating:GasReheat:GasCooling:ElectricityFans:ElectricityLights:ElectricityPlug Loads:ElectricitySHW:Gas
-5
5
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
Jan
Fe
bM
arA
prM
ayJu
nJu
lA
ugS
ep Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Fe
bM
arA
prM
ayJu
nJu
lA
ugS
ep Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Fe
bM
arA
prM
ayJu
nJu
lA
ugS
ep Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Fe
bM
arA
prM
ayJu
nJu
lA
ugS
ep Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Fe
bM
arA
prM
ayJu
nJu
lA
ugS
ep Oct
Nov
Dec
CWEC CWEC CWEC CWEC CWEC
A1FI A2 B1 B2
LowEn LowEn LowEn LowEn LowEn
En
d-U
se
En
erg
y C
on
su
mp
tio
n
(Me
ga
jou
les
/m2 )
CAN_ON_Toronto Typical Year Low Energy and Climate Change Scenarios, Source Energy
Heating:GasReheat:GasCooling:ElectricityFans:ElectricityLights:ElectricityPlug Loads:ElectricitySHW:Gas
3/3/2016
21
Climatic design data is critical for building design (equipment and systems sizing)
For building performance simulation, typical (TMY), actual, and future weather can all support building evaluation Some question of whether single TMY is enough (research on XMYs underway) Rich resources of data now available – both ground observing stations and satellite data.
Climate change scenarios can be represented today by modifying existing hourly weather files Buildings in higher latitude climates (north and south) will likely see decreases (heating
decreases more than cooling increases) Buildings in tropical and semi-tropical locations will see increases – but lower than changes
in higher latitudes – primarily due to increased cooling Energy-efficient buildings mitigate most impacts of both climate change and heat islands.
3/3/2016
22
Dru Crawley
@DruCrawley
DruCrawley
Building Performance Simulation for Design and Operation www.routledge.com/books/details/9780415474146/
ASHRAE Handbook—Fundamentals 2013 www.ashrae.org
NCDC Integrated Surface Data Documentation: ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/techrpts/tr200101/tr2001-01.pdfData: ols.nndc.noaa.gov/plolstore/plsql/olstore.prodspecific?prodnum=C00532-TAP-A0001
Typical Meteorological Year Data Sets (Climate.OneBuilding free weather data in EPW, ESP-r and Radiance formats) climate.onebuilding.org/
Drury B. Crawley. 1998. “Which Weather Data Should You Use for Energy Simulations of Commercial Buildings?” in ASHRAE Transactions, pp. 498-515, Vol. 104, Pt. 2. Atlanta: ASHRAE. climate.onebuilding.org/papers/1998_06_Crawley_Which_Weather_Data_Should_You_Use_for_Energy_Simulations_of_Commercial_Buildings.pdf
Crawley, Drury B. 2008. “Estimating the Impacts of Climate Change and Urbanization on Building Performance,” Building Performance Simulation, pp. 91-115, Vol. 1, No. 2 (June). climate.onebuilding.org/papers/2008_06_Crawley_Estimating_the_impacts_of_climate_change_and_urbanization_on_building_performance.pdf
Meteonorm www.meteonorm.com
Weather Underground www.weatherunderground.com
National Center for Environmental Information lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/climatedata.html
CIBSE Technical Manual 48 (TM48), Use of climate change scenarios for building simulation: the CIBSE future weather years www.cibse.org/index.cfm?go=publications.view&item=449
Climate Change World Weather Generator (CCWorldWeatherGen) www.energy.soton.ac.uk/ccworldweathergen/
Dview (tool for displaying and comparing weather data (and CSV data) beopt.nrel.gov/downloadDView
3/3/2016
23
Meteonorm Allows users to create a TMY-type file for any location in the world. Interpolates from observing stations and statistics. Does include TRY (European TMY-type files) for a number of locations Useful where no other data exists
Other sources! IWEC2 with 3012 locations worldwide (outside US/Canada) available from ASHRAE since early 2012. EU Energy Performance Directive requiring simulation, new data sets for Estonia, Finland, Ireland, Slovenia California Climate Zones update… Australia RMY update… ISHRAE update… Others.
BOTTOM LINE: Know what you’re using – the provenance, source, representativeness – before depending on it. Better to test against another file you’ve used with similar climatic conditions.