dubai 101 by fung global retail tech apr. 2016 101 by fung global... · 5 ! april!4,2016!...

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DEBORAH WEINSWIG, MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY [email protected] US: 917.655.6790 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Copyright © 2016 The Fung Group. All rights reserved.

• The city is a financial and commercial hub for the UAE and the Middle East, and 28.7% of its GDP comes from tourism and trade.

• Both local consumers and international tourists show significant spending potential.

• Upcoming global events also present significant retail opportunities for international businesses. In addition to recurring events, Dubai is scheduled to host the Dubai Expo 2020 from October 2020 to April 2021, which is expected to attract 25 million visitors, 70% of them from overseas.

• While international businesses are required to have a local partner that takes at least a 51% equity stake of the business, the UAE’s overall business environment is particularly attractive.

• International retailers such as US department store Bloomingdale’s have successfully entered the market with local partnerships.

Dubai 101

D E B O R A H W E I N S W I G M a n a g i n g D i r e c t o r ,

F u n g G l o b a l R e t a i l & T e c h n o l o g y d e b o r a h w e i n s w i g @ f u n g 1 9 3 7 . c o m

U S : 6 4 6 . 8 3 9 . 7 0 1 7 H K : 8 5 2 . 6 1 1 9 . 1 7 7 9

C H N : 8 6 . 1 8 6 . 1 4 2 0 . 3 0 1 6

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DUBAI OVERVIEW

Dubai is located on the southeast coast of the Persian Gulf and is the most populous city in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The city is a financial and commercial hub for the UAE and the Middle East, and 28.7% of its GDP comes from tourism and trade, compared to 5.2% for its oil-‐rich peer, Abu Dhabi. Dubai’s strategic location between the East and the West allows 2 billion people to fly to the city within 4.5 hours. Dubai International Airport services more than 100 airlines flying to more than 260 countries. In 2015, 58.7 million people traveled through the airport, up 12% from 2014. The city attracted 14 million tourists in 2015, who spent $11.68 billion during their stay. This made Dubai the fourth-‐most-‐visited city in the world, after London, Bangkok and Paris, according to the MasterCard Global Destination Cities Index.

Figure 1. Macro Indicators

Dubai Abu Dhabi As of GDP (USD Mil.) $82,867 $178,256 2014

Per Capita GDP $24,866 $61,009 2014

Unemployment Rate 0.3% 3.4% 2014

Average Inflation Rate 4.1% 3.2% 2015/2014

Permanent Residents 2,327,350 507,479 2014

Commuting Workers and Temporary Residents 1,081,000 2,148,969 2014

Total Population 3,408,350 2,656,448 2014

Percentage of Economy from Tourism and Trade 28.7% 5.2% 2014

Source: Dubai Statistics Center/Brookings Institution/Statistics Centre – Abu Dhabi/Abu Dhabi eGovernment Gateway

Real estate firm CBRE ranks the Emirate of Dubai, the UAE’s wealthiest and most international emirate, as the second-‐most-‐attractive market for international retailers, after London. Dubai’s retail sector has enjoyed robust growth in the past decade thanks to rising local consumer demand and growing tourism from the Middle East, Europe and Asia.

Both local consumers and international tourists show significant spending potential. Young millennial shoppers make up a large portion of the UAE population: 41% of the total population is aged 15–34, a much higher percentage than in the US, where millennials make up 25% of the total population. Due to conservative dress codes, handbags, accessories, fine jewelry and makeup are the strongest-‐performing categories. L.E.K. Consulting forecasts that duty-‐free sales at the Dubai airport alone will grow from $3.2 billion in 2011 to $5.6 billion in 2016, due to the large number of tourists visiting Dubai. International brands are expected to account for a significant share of these sales.

DUBAI’S RETAIL CALENDAR AND UPCOMING GLOBAL EVENTS

Shopping is a year-‐round sport in Dubai, and key shopping festivals and global events offer local and international shoppers compelling reasons to visit Dubai’ world-‐class shopping destinations.

The city attracted 14 million tourists in 2015, up 8% from 2014, who spent $11.68 billion during their stay.

Dubai

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• Shopping festivals: The city has two sales events each calendar year. The Dubai Shopping Festival takes place in January and is the largest shopping and entertainment event in the Middle East. The Dubai Summer Surprises event features annual sales at over 6,000 stores in conjunction with lots of family-‐oriented activities.

• Fashion events: Dubai hosts some key fashion events during the year, such as Dubai Design Week, which strengthens the city’s position as the region’s fashion capital.

• Ramadan: Ramadan is a Muslim religious holiday that involves fasting from sunrise to sundown. While it is not a shopping holiday, it is important for retailers, as it is an occasion to advertise “Ramadan Specials” on TV at a time when most people are at home with family. Many people go to the malls at night after breaking the fast.

Upcoming global events also present significant retail opportunities for international businesses. In addition to recurring events, Dubai is scheduled to host the Dubai Expo 2020, which is expected to attract 25 million visitors, 70% of them from overseas.

Figure 2. Key Shopping/Fashion Events in Dubai in 2016

The Dubai Shopping Festival takes place in January and is the largest shopping and entertainment event in the Middle East.

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Source: Fung Global Retail & Technology

Figure 3. Recent and Upcoming Global Events in/near Dubai


MALLS IN DUBAI: THE MOST DOMINANT RETAIL FORMAT

Local weather in Dubai is characterized by a tropical desert climate with summers as hot as 104 °F and warm winters with lows in the 50s. During the summer, the city experiences low pressure systems which bring strong sandy winds from the dessert that reduces visibility.

Due to such local weather conditions, shopping malls are the most dominant retail format in Dubai. The city’s malls are not just for air-‐conditioned shopping, though; they are home to entertainment and lifestyle offerings such as ski slopes, theaters, art centers, beauty services and fine dining. As a business hub of the Middle East, the city has more than 90 shopping malls, including The Dubai Mall, the world’s largest shopping mall by gross area.

Dubai’s state-‐of-‐the-‐art malls are among the most productive in the world and are also tourist destinations. Each mall has a distinct theme and décor style that differentiates it from other malls. The Mercato Shopping Mall is modeled after a Renaissance-‐era Italian village; Ibn Battuta Mall celebrates the Moroccan world explorers of the 12th century and depicts Egypt, Persia, India, China, Tunisia and Andalusia as they appeared during the era. The iconic Wafi Mall specializes in authentic Arabian goods and is housed in a pyramid-‐shaped building.

Figure 4: Key Malls in Dubai

Mall Gross Leasable Area (sq. ft.)

Average Store Count

Food and Beverage Locations

Selected Anchors Amenities

The Dubai Mall

1,148,294 1,200 200 Bloomingdale’s (M), Galeries Lafayette, Debenhams (DEB), Marks & Spencer(MKS), Paris Gallery

KidZania edutainment complex, indoor theme park, movie theater, ice rink

Mall of the Emirates

838,219 560 90+ Carrefour(CA), Centrepoint, Debenhams(DEB), Harvey Nichols, Home Centre, Jashanmal, Marks & Spencer(MKS), Sheraton (HOT), Virgin Megastore

Indoor ski slope, movie theater

Festival Centre in Dubai Festival City

2,060,000 60+ Ace, Centrepoint, Fitness First, Hard Rock Cafe, IKEA, Jashanmal, Marks & Spencer(MKS), Nike (NKE), Sun & Sand Sports, Paris Gallery, Plug Ins, Stadium, Toys “R” Us

“Private city” includes mall, dining, entertainment, schools, hotels, offices, leisure activities

Ibn Battuta Mall

1,709,317 275 50 Debenhams(DEB), Magrudy’s, Paris Gallery, Sharaf DG, G éant, H&M (HM B)

International-‐themed complex, movie theater, only IMAX theater in the UAE

Source: Company websites/Fung Global Retail & Technology

2020 Dubai Expo 2020

Jan. 29, 2016 Ironman Triathlon (one of the first held in the region)

Mar. 26, 2016 Dubai World Cup (horse race)

Feb 2017 Omega Dubai Desert Classic (golf tournament)

Dec. 1–3, 2016 Emirates Airline Dubai Rugby Sevens

2022 Qatar World Cup (one-‐hour plane ride from Dubai)

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EASE OF DOING BUSINESS IN THE UAE

Among the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, the UAE’s overall business environment is particularly attractive. The country enjoys great political stability, strong banking infrastructure and one of the most liberal trade regimes in the Gulf area. While Arabic is the official language of the UAE, English is the primary business language. All of these factors make the country a top choice for foreign businesses in the region.

International businesses are required to have a local partner that takes at least a 51% equity stake of the business. Many international businesses sell franchising rights. Some of the most prominent local business operators include:

Al Tayer, a private company headquartered in Dubai that operates in partnership with foreign businesses in multiple sectors, including real estate, automotive and retail. Al Tayer Group owns one of the largest portfolios of luxury brands in fashion, jewelry, home and department stores. Its retail division operates over 200 stores in the Gulf region. The company is the exclusive licensee of both the first international Bloomingdale’s (M) store, which anchors The Dubai Mall, and the largest Harvey Nichols department store outside the UK. Al Tayer is the exclusive local partner of many premium luxury fashion and beauty brands.

Alshaya, one of the most successful retail franchise operations in the Middle East. The Alshaya Group’s franchise portfolio includes more mass-‐market brands than Al Tayer’s does, including Starbucks (SBUX), H&M (HM B), Victoria’s Secret (L) and American Eagle Outfitters (AEO). The group manages over 70 brands in its 2,800 stores across the Middle East, North Africa, Russia, Turkey and Europe. Alshaya’s brands cover seven business areas: fashion and footwear, food, health and beauty, pharmacy, optics, home furnishings, and leisure and entertainment.

Majid Al Futtaim, a large mall operator and licensee partner of international brands. Compared with Al Tayer and Alshaya, the group has a unique portfolio of hypermarkets and supermarkets. On the supermarkets side, Majid Al Futtaim holds the exclusive license in the Middle East and North Africa region for the world’s second-‐largest supermarket, Carrefour (CA). A young company (founded in 1992), Majid Al Futtaim operates 19 shopping malls in the Middle East and North Africa region, including the prominent Mall of the Emirates. The company also represents fashion brands such as AllSaints, lululemon athletica (LULU) and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF).

In 2010, US premier department store Bloomingdale’s (M) chose Dubai as the location of its first overseas store. Located at The Dubai Mall, the store comprises 200,000 square feet of upscale space that includes a 50,000-‐square-‐foot home store and a Magnolia Bakery, the first of the iconic bakery’s stores to be located outside New York. Marvin Traub Associates, a US-‐based business development consulting firm, represented the Al Tayer Group on the Bloomingdale’s (M) partnership, advising on securing the franchising rights and developing the store. The store’s sales and gross margin exceeded an aggressive plan and the store reached profitability within its first year of operation.

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Figure 5. Select International Retailers’ Entry into Dubai


Retailer Year Country Partner Notes

IKEA 1991 Sweden Al-‐Futtaim Group IKEA plans to open its second store in Dubai in 2016

Carrefour (CA) 1995 France Majid Al Futtaim Majid Al Futtaim entered an agreement with Carrefour(CA) to found the MAF Hypermarkets Company

Toys “R” Us 1995 US Al-‐Futtaim Group The Al-‐Futtaim Group helped to franchise Toys “R” Us in the Gulf

Marks & Spencer (MKS)

1998 UK Al-‐Futtaim Group The Al-‐Futtaim Group operates 14 Marks & Spencer (MKS)stores in the Middle East

Galleries Lafayette 2009 France Gard Investments Galleries Lafayette is the largest department store in Dubai

Bloomingdale’s (M) 2010 US Al Tayer Bloomingdale’s (M) opened its first store outside the US in the Dubai Mall

Nike(NKE) 2010 US Alshaya Nike has a 140-‐square-‐meter store in the Abu Dhabi Mall

H&M (HM B) 2010 Sweden Alshaya H&M has 150 stores in the country

Apple (AAPL) 2015 US Majid Al Futtaim The first Apple store in the Middle East opened at the Mall of the Emirates

LEGO 2015 Sweden Majid Al Futtaim There are three LEGO stores in Dubai

Adrianna Papell 2015 US Al Tayer The Dubai store is Adrianna Papell’s first stand-‐alone store

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Deborah Weinswig, CPA Managing Director Fung Global Retail & Technology New York: 917.655.6790 Hong Kong: 852.6119.1779 China: 86.186.1420.3016 [email protected] John Harmon Analyst Jing Wang Research Associate Ross Beroff Research Intern Mia Shi Xu Research Intern

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dubai 101 by fung global retail tech apr. 2016 101 by fung global... · 5 ! april!4,2016!...

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