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D U N & B R A D S T R E E T

ASEANBusiness Optimism IndexQuarter 4 2015

GROWING RELATIONSHIPS THROUGH DATA

MeasuringConfidence

MeasuredDecisions

BUSINESS OPTIMISM INDEXThe Dun & Bradstreet Business Optimism Index (BOI) report is a measure of business confidence in the economy. Released quarterly, it measures the pulse of the business community and is one of the most effective ways to track how the business community perceives the business environment, and where they think it is going. Over time, this quarterly survey has emerged as a leading indicator of turning points in economic activity in countries which it is published.

SURVEY METHODOLOGYFor the purpose of conducting the survey, a sample is randomly selected from Dun & Bradstreet database, consisting of companies belonging to the following sectors including Agriculture, Construction, Utilities, Finance, Manufacturing, Mining, Services, Transportation, Wholesale, and Real Estate.

All the respondents in the survey are asked six standard questions regarding their expectations as to whether the following critical parameters pertaining to their respective companies will register an increase ( ), decline ( ) or show no change ( ) in the ensuing quarter as compared to the same quarter in the prior year: Volume of Sales, Net Profits, Selling Prices, New Orders, Inventory Levels, and Employees.

The individual indices are then calculated by subtracting the percentage of respondents expecting decreases from those expecting increases. Unless otherwise stated, increases and decreases in indices represent changes from the previous quarter.

AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTION MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION WHOLESALERSSERVICESMININGUTILITIES FINANCE

SALES VOLUME

NETPROFIT

NEW ORDERS

SELLING PRICE

INVENTORY EMPLOYMENT

REAL ESTATE

ASEAN Business Optimism Index

GDP Forecast

The leading indicator of business confidence for Southeast Asia region

| QUARTER 4, 2015

SALES VOLUME

INDONESIA PHILIPPINES SINGAPORE VIETNAMTHAILANDMALAYSIA

NETPROFIT

SELLING PRICE

INVENTORY EMPLOYMENT

Businesses are asked to give their outlook on six key indicators

ASEAN-6INDONESIA

MALAYSIA

PHILIPPINES

SINGAPORE

THAILAND

VIETNAM

SALES VOLUME

NET PROFIT

SELLING PRICE

NEW ORDERS

INVENTORY

EMPLOYMENT

10

6

8

4

1

9

5

2

7

3

0

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

4.7 4.8

6.2

2.5 2.5

5.86 6.15.8

2.93.5

5.46.1 5.9 5.7

3.13.7

66.2 6

5.2

3.1

4

6.86.2

5.85.2

3

4.2

6.2

Source: Dun & Bradstreet – Country Insight Services

NEW ORDERS

SUMMARYAmong the 6 ASEAN member states surveyed by Dun & Bradstreet for its Business Optimism Index (BOI), overall sentiment remains relatively upbeat in Vietnam and Philippines for the coming fourth quarter. In contrast, business confidence has deteriorated sharply in Malaysia and Thailand. Most indicators have similarly underperformed in Indonesia, the region’s largest economy, and Singapore. Prevailing global economic uncertainty continues to weigh on expectations of the business community. The blunted growth trajectory of China, the third largest trading partner for ASEAN, has also cast shadows on this region.

The quarterly ASEAN BOI is the first business optimism metric for Southeast Asia, one of the world’s largest trade regions which will establish the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) in December 2015.

INDEX

INDONESIA Roaring Year Ends in a Whimper 05

MALAYSIA Clouds Gathering in Malaysian Skies 08

PHILIPPINES Slightly Shaken But Still Sturdy 11

SINGAPORE Industries Brace for Some Hard Knocks 14

THAILAND Not Quite Out of the Woods Yet 17

VIETNAM Businesses Tread Cautiously After Rebound 20

Roaring Year Ends in a Whimper

5.1% in August. As global economic uncertainty prevails, particularly with the looming US rate hike and weakening Chinese currency, growth began to taper. Domestic household consumption had also slipped from 5.01% in Q1 to 4.97% in Q2.

To gear up the local economy President Joko Widodo issued a package of booster policies named “September 1” to: (1) encourage national industrial competitiveness through deregulation, debureaucratization, as well as law enforcement; (2) accelerate national strategic projects by eliminating various obstacles, blockages in the implementation and completion of the strategic projects; and (3) increase investment in property sector. In D&B’s view, while government spending may still pick up in the coming months, little additional support can be expected form the monetary channel. As expected, the central bank kept policy rates unchanged at its 18 August meeting. While it would certainly like to loosen monetary policy if it could, there is little scope for this on account of elevated inflation and a fast depreciating currency. The authorities will be keen to avoid a more precipitous decline in Rupiah that could lead to a broader loss of investor confidence in Indonesian assets.

The latest Business Optimism Index (BOI) from Dun & Bradstreet Indonesia reported its fourth consecutive quarter of decline. The index has experienced a marked and continuous slide since the beginning of this year, and indicates that the slowdown in domestic economy is still taking place. The BOI score softened cautiously from 34.9% in Q3 to 27.8 in Q4. All six parameters are contractionary on q-o-q basis. The survey concludes that a net weighted 11.9% of respondents see better business performance during the quarter. Meanwhile, those with pessimistic outlook stayed at 10.4%, the highest level in the last five years.

– Volume of Sales and Net Profit dropped 9% and 13% q-o-q respectively. Wholesale is the most pessimistic sector in both instances, followed by Transportation and Mining.

– Selling Price registered the highest value among all parameters at 10%, albeit flat from last quarter. This is as most respondents plan to increase prices in the coming quarter, due to the weakening Rupiah against US dollar.

– New Orders posted the largest decrease q-o-q (-14%) from 13.7% in Q3 to negative 0.3% in Q4. Exports failed to lift prospects, as they have been falling rather sharply due to low commodity prices and Chinese demand.

– Inventory and Employment also decreased, by -7% and -4% respectively. Mining and Agriculture sectors will likely downsize hiring.

The downward trend is in line with the degradation of Indonesia growth projections, which until now has been revised by the government, twice. At the beginning of this year, the central bank forecasted growth to be in the respectable range of 5.4% to 5.8%. Guidance at 5.0% to 5.4% in June, and then announced a lower one at 4.7% to

Business Optimism IndexINDONESIA

Quarter 4 2015

Q3

60 7

50

6

6

40

530

5

204

0 3

10 4

Q3

Q2

Q2

Q4

Q3

Q3

Q4

Q4

Q4

Q1

Q1

Q1

Q2

20152013 20142012

OVERALL BOI SCORE CHART (Q3 2012 – Q4 2015)

BO

I

SC

OR

E

GD

P

GR

OW

TH

(

%)

Composite BOI GDP Growth (y-o-y %)


Quarter 4 2015

NET PROFIT

SELLING PRICE

12.6Q-O-Q

1.0Q-O-Q

8.6

VOLUME OF SALES

Q-O-Q

2015 Q42015 Q32015 Q22015 Q12014 Q4

80

40

-20

60

0

20

-40

%

MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION ALLSERVICES UTILITIESMININGAGRICULTURE FINANCEWHOLESALECONSTRUCTION

80

40

-20

60

0

20

-40

%


80

40

-20

60

0

20

-40

%



Quarter 4 2015

NEW ORDERS

INVENTORY

7.3Q-O-Q

EMPLOYMENT

4.0Q-O-Q

14.0Q-O-Q

2015 Q42015 Q32015 Q22015 Q12014 Q4

80

40

-20

60

0

20

-40

%

ALLSERVICES UTILITIESMININGAGRICULTURE FINANCEWHOLESALECONSTRUCTION

40

30

0

-30

20

10

-20

-10

-40

%


25

10

-5

15

20

0

5

-10

%


MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION



Clouds Gathering in Malaysian Skies

– Employment levels have fallen for the fourth consecutive quarter from 6.5% in Q3 to negative 4.5% in Q4.

Political unrest, currency volatility (the ringgit has fallen to its lowest since the Asian crisis), and low energy prices (the government relies on oil and gas for almost a third of its revenue) will continue to take a toll on confidence. Foreign investors are selling both government debt and shares (the country’s stock market has also fallen sharply), and the cost of insuring against a Malaysian debt default has soared.

Despite gathering clouds in the quarter ahead, D&B’s view is that Malaysia’s problems are, to some extent, superficial, and that the country needs merely to step back from further debt accumulation. The central bank has stepped back from intervening to stabilise the currency, which we regard as a positive development. Economic reforms undertaken in the past decades have been sound and the fundamentals are far better than in other economies in the region.

Business outlook of Malaysian firms plunged into the contractionary zone for Q4 2015 following a strong downward moderation in Q3. According to Dun & Bradstreet Malaysia’s Business Optimism Index (BOI), the score deteriorated from 2.62% in Q3 to negative 14.5% in Q4. Compared to a year ago, this was 13.5% for Q4. The sharpest drops were observed in Volume of Sales, Net Profits and Inventory. Among the sectors, Construction and Transportation held their ground and remain relatively hopeful. Manufacturing fared the worst with all parameters contracting, except Inventory which moved up a notch. This is the 11th quarterly BOI released in Malaysia.

– Volume of Sales took an acute fall, from 8% in Q3 to negative 34% in Q4. Net Profit also dived from 2% in Q3 to negative 37% in Q4. Although all the sectors surveyed had expected Q4 to worsen at varying degrees, Agriculture is the hardest hit in both parameters.

– Selling Price climbed from 6% in Q3 to 11% in Q4; bearing in mind that the new goods and services tax (GST) had taken effect at the start of Q2. This is also the only indicator which experienced a y-o-y increase, from 1.5% in Q4 2014 to 11% this year.

– New Orders contracted following two consecutive quarters of growth (-16% q-o-q). Manufacturing is the only sector that furnishes expectations on new orders. It should be noted that the Nikkei Malaysia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) had fallen to a near 3-year low to 47.2 in August 2015.

– Inventory recovered by +2% from last quarter. The only expansionary sector here is Construction (mild increase of +5%), while the rest are either holding their stock levels (Agriculture, Financial, Mining) or rationalizing them.

Business Optimism IndexMALAYSIA

Quarter 4 2015

Q2

40

30

20

10

0

-20

-10

Q3

Q1

Q4

Q2

Q3

Q3

Q4

Q4

Q1

Q2

20152013 2014


BO

I

SC

OR

E


Quarter 4 2015

42.0

VOLUME OF SALES

NET PROFIT

SELLING PRICE

60

20

40

0

-30

50

10

-20

30

-10

-40

80

40

-20

60

0

20

-40

80

0

40

-40

-100

60

-20

-80

20

-60

-120

%

%

%

Q-O-Q

39.0Q-O-Q

4.5Q-O-Q

2015 Q42015 Q32015 Q22015 Q12014 Q4

AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTION MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION ALLSERVICESMININGFINANCE WHOLESALE




Quarter 4 2015

NEW ORDERS

15

10

0

-10

5

-5

-15

%

17.3Q-O-Q

INVENTORY

%

2.0Q-O-Q

EMPLOYMENT

40

30

10

-20

20

-10

0

-30

20

0

10

-10

-25

15

-5

-20

5

-15

-30

%

11.0Q-O-Q

2015 Q42015 Q32015 Q22015 Q12014 Q4

MINING



Slightly Shaken But Still Sturdy

– Employment retreated from 45% in Q3 to 37% in Q4. This is a natural adjustment after the almost threefold jump from Q2 to Q3, and with growing economic uncertainties abroad.

Business confidence ahead may be somewhat shaken but remains sturdy. While the Asian financial market turmoil has affected the Philippines, according to most analyses the country is among the least vulnerable to China in Southeast Asia (and to other recent adverse developments such as soft commodity prices). The Philippine peso has declined less than other Asian currencies (similarly, the stock market has been more resilient), its FX reserves have held steady, and the local financial markets are less internationalised. Philippine companies are also known to have learned their lesson from the Asian crises and to fully hedge exchange rate risk. It is our view as well that the fallout for the Philippines will only be increased volatility; the main downside risk for the country is indirect, via trade links (in the event that a Chinese slowdown dampens global growth).

The overall confidence of the Filipino business community eased from 57% in Q3 to 52% in Q4, according to the latest findings by Dun & Bradstreet (D&B) Philippines. The market has moved into its fourth consecutive quarter of decline, having started the year with heady optimism but gradually decelerated. Out of the six survey parameters, only Volume of Sales is expansionary, inching from 75% in Q3 to 81% in Q4. Transportation and Finance are the most optimistic sectors. Conversely, Mining finds the least to cheer with depressed global energy prices.

– Volume of Sales increased +5.7%, buoyed by strong domestic demand throughout the year. In fact, growth is expected in Q4 in nearly all industries. D&B maintains its GDP forecast of 6.2% for the year 2015, the region’s fastest.

– Net Profit in Q4 trails slightly behind compared to Q3 (73% and 77% respectively). More businesses in Finance and Transportation expect bottomlines to widen in Q4, a pattern similarly observed in Volume of Sales. Although the optimism level for most industries stays positive, the overall parameter is dragged down by Mining.

– Selling Price declined from 22% in Q3 to 15% in Q4. Consumer prices have remained soft (it grew just 0.8% y-o-y in July, the lowest inflation on record), but authorities warned that the El Nino phenomenon may push inflation higher in coming quarters.

– New Orders and Inventory both moderated downwards (61% and 30% respectively). Wholesale, Agriculture and Mining sectors are the most affected. It should be noted that exports have been underperforming for most of the year.

Business Optimism IndexPHILIPPINES

Quarter 4 2015

80

60

40

20

0

Q2

Q4

Q3

Q1

2015


BO

I

SC

OR

E


5.7

Quarter 4 2015

VOLUME OF SALES

NET PROFIT

SELLING PRICE

120

80

40

100

60

20

0

120

80

40

100

60

20

0

80

40

60

0

-60

20

-40

-20

-80

%

%

%

Q-O-Q

4.4Q-O-Q

7.3

2015 Q42015 Q32015 Q22015 Q1




Q-O-Q


Quarter 4 2015

NEW ORDERS

INVENTORY

%

4.9Q-O-Q

EMPLOYMENT

100

0

40

-40

-100

80

60

-20

-80

20

-60

-120

%

7.6Q-O-Q

2015 Q42015 Q32015 Q22015 Q1

13.3

120

80

40

100

60

20

0

%

Q-O-Q

120

80

100

40

-20

60

0

20

-40




Industries Brace for Some Hard Knocks

– Meanwhile, Inventory decreased sharply but managed to stay above water, from 13% in Q3 to 1% in Q4. Manufacturing is hit hardest at negative 60%.

– Interestingly, Employment only moderated slightly from 16% in Q3 to 15% in Q4. Hiring sentiments stood firm amid a robust talent market in the city state. Gains are strongest in Construction, in line with the pick-up of public sector projects. When viewed y-o-y, Employment actually increased +4.3% in the corresponding quarter.

The compound effects of an overall global and regional economic slowdown as well as mounting credit risks emanating from parts of Asia-Pacific such as China have dampened business sentiments significantly for the final quarter. The report anticipates a challenging quarter ahead for businesses as there has been a general decline in optimism levels across most sectors, even in Construction and Services which are typically energetic. As sign of things to come, the Monetary Authority of Singapore recently trimmed its GDP forecast from 2.7% in June to 2.2% in September this year.

Following two consecutive quarters of increase since Q2, business optimism plunges to near contractionary levels in the final quarter of 2015. According to the Singapore Commercial Credit Bureau (SCCB), which operates under Dun & Bradstreet Singapore, the overall optimism index nosedived from 15% in Q3 to 0.1% in Q4, barely scratching negative territory. In y-o-y comparison, the index has declined by 10.79%. The latest BOI reading is the second lowest in nearly 3 years when it hit a historical low of -0.82% in Q1 2013. For this quarter Q4, only 2 out of the six parameters surveyed are expansionary, which stands in sharp contrast last quarter when all six were expansionary.

Both Manufacturing and Transportation sectors have taken a severe beating. The outlook for Manufacturing has been particularly bleak for the most part of 2015, weighed down by biomedical and transport engineering sub-sectors. According to the Ministry of Trade and Industry, the Manufacturing sector had shrunk by 4.9% y-o-y.

– Both Volume of Sales and Net Profit sank into the contractionary zone for the first time since Q1 2015. Sales tumbled from 28% in Q3 to negative 4% in Q4. Moving in the similar direction, Profits fell from 14% in Q3 to negative 0.7% in Q4.

– Selling Price has also fallen into the subzero region, from 2% in Q3 to negative 6% in Q4. The decline is even steeper on a y-o-y basis.

– New Orders relapsed to negative 22% in Q4, after briefly reversing the downtrend in Q3. This concurs with the Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI), which fell for the second consecutive month in August, following further contractions in new orders and production output domestically, and new export orders overseas.

Business Optimism IndexSINGAPORE

Quarter 4 2015

Q1

50

40

30

20

10

-10

0

Q3

Q1

Q4

Q2

Q3

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q4

Q1

Q2

20152013 2014


BO

I

SC

OR

E


Quarter 4 2015

32.1

VOLUME OF SALES

NET PROFIT

SELLING PRICE

60

20

40

0

-30

50

10

-20

30

-10

-40

80

40

0

-60

20

-40

60

-20

-80

100

20

60

20

-80

80

0

-60

40

-40

-100

%

%

%

Q-O-Q

15.0Q-O-Q

8.5Q-O-Q

2015 Q42015 Q32015 Q22015 Q12014 Q4





Quarter 4 2015

NEW ORDERS

20

5

15

-5

-20

0

-15

10

-10

-25

%

11.4Q-O-Q

INVENTORY

80

40

0

20

60

-20

-40

%

37.6Q-O-Q

EMPLOYMENT

70

30

50

10

-20

60

20

-10

40

0

-30

%

0.7Q-O-Q

2015 Q42015 Q32015 Q22015 Q12014 Q4

MINING



Q1

50

40

30

20

10

-10

0

Q3

Q1

Q4

Q2

Q3

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q4

Q1

Q2

20152013 2014


BO

I

SC

OR

E

Not Quite Out of the Woods Yet

just as recovery signs were increasing. Thailand’s already fragile economic performance will clearly not be helped by such a large-scale, international headline-making incident at a prime tourist site in its capital city. According to official data, real GDP growth had already slowed to 2.8% y-o-y in Q2 from 3.0% in Q1. With exports declining and private consumption weighed down by a high debt burden and weather conditions hurting farmer incomes, the recovering tourism was sector was among the few clear bright spots for the country’s economic outlook.

The negative impact of the attack is already apparent with the tourism ministry on 26 August reporting a 17% decline in average daily tourist inflows to 70,000 in the days following the attack. Nonetheless in D&B’s view, tourist inflows should recover if, as seems likely at present, the bomb attack is not part of a sustained campaign. Taking account of growing evidence of economic downturn in its key trade partner China (arguably best evidenced by the country’s recent currency devaluation initiative), we are thus further trimming our 2015 real GDP forecast to 2.5% from 2.7% previously.

The overall Business Optimism Index (BOI) by Dun & Bradstreet Thailand contracted by 8% q-o-q, as survey respondents expect dimmer prospects in Q4. The BOI score sits at negative 5%, the second weakest in ASEAN after Malaysia. On closer reading, most parameters are anemic with Volume of Sales and Net Profit slipping in subzero region (both at -12%) for the first time in recent years.

– Volume of Sales and Net Profit dropped 14% and 11% q-o-q respectively. The outlook is clearly affected by the recent bomb attack (more below). Consumer confidence had already been falling for six straight months before this occurred, according to the ANZ-Roy Morgan Index.

– Selling Price adjusted slightly downwards by 5%, mainly for Services. Other sectors like Transportation, Finance and Mining plan to raise prices.

– Expectations for New Orders are down by 13%, while Inventory levels will pile up by 8%. For the former, sharpest drops are seen in Agriculture, Utilities and Manufacturing. Rice output is already hampered by months of drought, and export momentum has slowed.

– Employment contracted by 8% q-o-q. Most of the downsizing is expected to happen in Agriculture and Real Estate. Note: Agriculture accounts for 10% of GDP and employs more than 40% of the country’s population.

After martial law was lifted in Q2 (from 10 months of coup) and with continued political stability, business expectations would have emerged out of the woods in Q4. Alas it may have slipped deeper into it. The bomb attack on 17 August at the Erawan shrine in central Bangkok was unfortunate

Business Optimism IndexTHAILAND

Quarter 4 2015

50

40

30

20

10

-10

0

Q3

Q4

Q4

Q1

Q2

20152014


BO

I

SC

OR

E


Quarter 4 2015

VOLUME OF SALES

NET PROFIT

SELLING PRICE

2015 Q42015 Q32015 Q22015 Q12014 Q4

14.0Q-O-Q

120

100

40

20

-40

80

60

-20

0

-60

%

ALLSERVICESMININGAGRICULTURE FINANCEWHOLESALECONSTRUCTIONUTILITIESMANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION REAL ESTATE

11.0Q-O-Q

120

100

40

20

-40

80

60

-20

0

-60

%


13.0Q-O-Q

100

80

60

0

20

40

-20

%



Quarter 4 2015

NEW ORDERS

INVENTORY

EMPLOYMENT

2015 Q42015 Q32015 Q22015 Q12014 Q4

100

80

20

0

-60

60

40

-40

-20

-80

%


13.0Q-O-Q

40

30

20

-10

-20

-50

10

0

-40

-30

-60

%


8.0Q-O-Q

120

100

40

20

-40

80

60

-20

0

-60

%


8.0Q-O-Q

Businesses Tread Cautiously After Rebound

– Inventory Level increased sharply from 4% in previous quarter to 20% this quarter, particularly for the Wholesale (+34%) and Mining (+27%) sectors. While there is anticipation and preparation for higher demand in Q4, the growth also appears to be corrective due to a precipitous drop in Q3.

– More tellingly, Employment ceded slightly (-2% q-o-q and -5% y-o-y) despite rosy topline growth in Volume of Sales and Net Profit. This suggests that businesses are still cautious about their expansion plans. It is worth noting that on y-o-y basis, the growth in Sales and Profit is relatively modest (in single digits, +4% and +9% respectively), which might not adequately justify business owners to increase their payroll in next year’s budget plans.

We expect that current optimism will continue to have legs right through the coming quarter with minor lifts, given recent positive signals from the local macroeconomic environment and the cyclical upturn from the annual Tet season in Q1 2016; while being mindful of the possibility of unfavorable exchange rate pressures. Businesses will remain cautiously expansionary.

According to Dun & Bradstreet (D&B) Vietnam, businesses have maintained their optimistic streak from the previous quarter, with a few minor upshoots. After hitting a trough of 24% in Q1 2015, the overall index regained momentum in later quarters and now reached 45% for Q4 2015 (+2% q-o-q), nearly as high as Q4 2014 (47%). The largest increases are seen in Wholesale (+12%) and Services (+9%). Construction and Finance still lead with the highest optimism levels (54% and 50% respectively) but almost without any change.

At the outset, it appears surprising that Manufacturing slumped -11% down to 37% this quarter despite the Industrial Production Index of 8M-2015 reporting 10.4% annual growth, a clear improvement from 8.1% of 8M-2014. This is probably due to the impact of recent adjustments in exchange rates, which has hit both import-substitution and export-orientation firms. Nonetheless, it should be noted that optimism in Manufacturing is still riding at record high levels, since Q4 2013.

– Volumes of Sales and Net Profit are two parameters with the highest scores (71% and 88% respectively). While Volumes of Sales stayed flat from previous quarter, Net Profit showed a large jump to 88% (+13%). This is the highest level observed for this parameter since Q4 2013. The buoyancy of Net Profit given stable Sales is led by the Services, Transportation, and Wholesale sectors, perhaps due to the recent downward trend of fuel prices.

– With current inflation prevailing at low levels and amid the CPI drop in August (m-o-m), it is understandably obvious that Selling Price shrank from 13% in previous quarter to 3% this quarter.

– On y-o-y basis, New Orders experience the largest increase (14%) while Selling Price and Inventory Level suffer the largest drops (-23% and -20% respectively).

Business Optimism IndexVIETNAM

Quarter 4 2015

Q4

60

50

40

30

20

0

10

Q3

Q3

Q4

Q4

Q1

Q1

Q2

Q2

20152014


BO

I

SC

OR

E

7.5

5.5

6.5

6

7

5

4.5

4

3

3.5

GD

P

GR

OW

TH

(

%)

Composite BOI GDP Growth (y-o-y %)


Quarter 4 2015

1.0

VOLUME OF SALES

NET PROFIT

SELLING PRICE

Q-O-Q

13.0Q-O-Q

10.0Q-O-Q

2015 Q42015 Q32015 Q22015 Q12014 Q4

100

60

80

40

10

90

50

20

70

30

0

%

MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION ALLSERVICESMININGFINANCE WHOLESALECONSTRUCTION

100

60

80

40

10

90

50

20

70

30

0

%


90

40

60

20

-10

70

80

30

0

50

10

-20

%



Quarter 4 2015

NEW ORDERS

16.0Q-O-Q

INVENTORY

5.0Q-O-Q

EMPLOYMENT

2.0Q-O-Q

2015 Q42015 Q32015 Q22015 Q12014 Q4

MANUFACTURING ALLMINING WHOLESALE

90

60

80

40

10

50

20

70

30

0

%


50

30

40

20

5

45

25

10

35

15

0

%


80

50

30

0

70

40

10

60

20

-10

%

ABOUT DUN & BRADSTREET® (D&B)Dun & Bradstreet (NYSE: DNB) grows the most valuable relationships in business. By uncovering truth and meaning from data, we connect customers with the prospects, suppliers, clients and partners that matter most, and have since 1841. Nearly ninety percent of the Fortune 500, and companies of every size around the world, rely on our data, insights and analytics. For more about Dun & Bradstreet, visit DNB.com.

© Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. 2015. All rights reserved.

D&B BUSINESS OPTIMISM INDEX (BOI)

INDONESIA Analysis and commentary by Bayu Krisna Setyadi, Dun & Bradstreet Indonesia.

For more information, please visit www.dnb.co.id, or contact our Customer Service Center at +62 21 5790 0979, or email us [email protected].

MALAYSIA Analysis by Dun & Bradstreet Malaysia. Commentary by Dr Lau Wee Yeap, Senior Lecturer, Faculty of Economics and Administration, University of Malaya, Malaysia.

For more information, please visit www.dnb.com.sg, or contact Eugene Zachariah Tan at +65 6439 6670, or email [email protected].

PHILIPPINES Analysis and commentary by Ian Velasco, Dun & Bradstreet Philippines.

For more information, please visit www.dnb.com.ph, or contact our Customer Service Center at +632 907 6080, or email us [email protected].

SINGAPORE Analysis by Singapore Commercial Credit Bureau. Commentary by Dr Chan Siew Pang, Honorary Senior Lecturer, La Trobe University, Australia, a formal Faculty Member of the National University of Singapore Business School and Director of Arete Analytics Pte Ltd.

Established in 2005, Singapore Commercial Credit Bureau (SCCB) operates a database of local enterprises and their credit history to provide clients with the insight needed to build trust and improve the quality of business relationships with their customers, suppliers and business partners. SCCB operates under Dun & Bradstreet Singapore. For more information, please visit www.dnb.com.sg, or contact Eugene Zachariah Tan at +65 6439 6670, or email [email protected].

THAILAND Analysis by Dun & Bradstreet Thailand. Commentary by Asst. Prof. Pannarai Sangvichien, Dr. Chareunsak Sangchatsuwan, Mr. Somnuk Assadornviseth, Ms Sariya Nuchanong, Ms. Banjertsak SanhaPuckdee, Huachiew Chalermprakiet University.

For more information, please visit www.dnb.co.th, or contact our Customer Service Center at +662 657 3999 ext. 4200, or email us [email protected].

VIETNAM Analysis by Dun & Bradstreet Vietnam. Commentary by Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Minh Ha, Dean of Post Graduate School, HCMC Open University, Vietnam.

For more information, please visit www.dnbvietnam.com, or contact our Customer Service Center at +848 3911 7288, or email [email protected].

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