Dutch Research Institute For Transitions (DRIFT) (www.drift.eur.nl)

Transition management:its origin,evolution and critique

Jan Rotmans, Derk Loorbach, RenJan Rotmans, Derk Loorbach, René Kempé Kemp

Berlin, 19-09-2007Berlin, 19-09-2007

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)NMP4 –TM basic

• a long-term orientation as framework for short-term a long-term orientation as framework for short-term policies.policies.

• dealing with uncertaintiesdealing with uncertainties• keep options open keep options open • multi-domain and multi-actor approachmulti-domain and multi-actor approach• focus on learning and innovationfocus on learning and innovation• a specific role for governmenta specific role for government

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) NMP4

ICIS-MeritDuWoBo

Energy Valley

OVAM

R3

Parkstad Limburg

EnergytransitionKSI

Drift

Transforum

PsibouwTransumo

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)Theoretical basis

• Governance approachGovernance approach• Insights from Insights from

- Complexity theory: dynamics of CASComplexity theory: dynamics of CAS

- Sociology: social dynamics of changeSociology: social dynamics of change

- Governance: patterns and practices of actors in networksGovernance: patterns and practices of actors in networks

• Applied to ’transitions’ (in social CAS) and Applied to ’transitions’ (in social CAS) and sustainable developmentsustainable development

• Governance frameworkGovernance framework• Multi-level meta-governance approachMulti-level meta-governance approach• Set of systemic instrumentsSet of systemic instruments

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Monitoring, evaluating

and adapting

Developing sustainability

images, coalitions and

joint transition-agendas

Problem structuring, envisioning and organizing

transition-arenas

Mobilizing actors and developing transition-experiments

Governance framework

Strategic(emphasis on system culture)

Tactical(emphasis on system structures)

Operational(emphasis on system practices)

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)TM – 2.0

• complex systems’ and transitions’ thinking as complex systems’ and transitions’ thinking as analytical basisanalytical basis

• long-term envisioning as framework for short-term long-term envisioning as framework for short-term actionaction

• multiple futures, images and pathways multiple futures, images and pathways • multi-actor approachesmulti-actor approaches• taking multi-level dynamics into accounttaking multi-level dynamics into account• creating protected (governance) niches for innovationcreating protected (governance) niches for innovation• developing strategies to deal with the regimedeveloping strategies to deal with the regime• focus on learning, experiment and innovationfocus on learning, experiment and innovation

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Misconception 1

transition management is social engineeringtransition management is social engineering

““transition management is not about designing a route planner,transition management is not about designing a route planner,

using a Tom-Tom to achieve a fixed place of determination”using a Tom-Tom to achieve a fixed place of determination”

searching, learning, experimentingsearching, learning, experimenting

exploring new pathways in a reflexive manner exploring new pathways in a reflexive manner

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Misconception 2

management means command & controlmanagement means command & control

““transition management is not a form of planning to steertransition management is not a form of planning to steer

actors towards predefined, normative goals”actors towards predefined, normative goals”

management here means creating space for frontrunnersmanagement here means creating space for frontrunners

space for:space for: envisioning envisioning

joint agendajoint agenda

financial incentivesfinancial incentives

small-scale experimentssmall-scale experiments

empowering niche-playersempowering niche-players

scaling up experiments scaling up experiments

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Misconception 3

socio-technical systems vs social systemssocio-technical systems vs social systems

““transition management has not been applied to socio-technicaltransition management has not been applied to socio-technical

systems but to societal sectors or regions”systems but to societal sectors or regions”

no sailship but mobility sector; no biotechnology but agricultureno sailship but mobility sector; no biotechnology but agriculture

not exploring the role of technologies not exploring the role of technologies

but exploring the role of individuals and institutionsbut exploring the role of individuals and institutions

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•Degree of purposiveness

•Degree of coordination

•Level of scale (high: society / low: subsystem of society)

High aggregation

Emergent

Teleological Low

ag

greg

atio

n

High aggregation

Low

aggregation

Low

Coord

inatio

nHigh

Coordination

Demographic Transition

Economic Transition

Revolutions

From coal to gas

ICT/internet

From sailboat to steamship

Civilization Globalisation

Water transition

Agricultural intensification (’60’s)

Health insurance

Transition to Sustainable Agriculture

Energy transition

Wind Energy supply

Solar Energy supply

Biomass energy supply

Nuclear energy supply

Mobility Biodiversity

Biological Agriculture

A typology of transitions

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Shove & Walker Caution 1

who are managing a transition and on whose behalf?who are managing a transition and on whose behalf?

what are the everyday politics of transition management?what are the everyday politics of transition management?

• transition managers do not really existtransition managers do not really exist• variety of transition players dealing with: variety of transition players dealing with:

strategy, new coalitions, experiments, arrangements,strategy, new coalitions, experiments, arrangements,

bureaucratic matters, guidelines for practitionersbureaucratic matters, guidelines for practitioners

‘ ‘tangled ball’tangled ball’• government mostly initiator but not necessarily government mostly initiator but not necessarily

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Caution 2

what is to be monitored and how frequently?what is to be monitored and how frequently? how to identify early warning signals?how to identify early warning signals?

• different stages of a transitiondifferent stages of a transition• patterns and underlying mechanismspatterns and underlying mechanisms• emergent properties of complex system emergent properties of complex system • thresholds versus tipping pointsthresholds versus tipping points• reflexive monitoringreflexive monitoring

- shared problem perceptionshared problem perception- sustainability visionssustainability visions- social learning social learning - emerging networksemerging networks- behaviour of frontrunnersbehaviour of frontrunners

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Caution 3

how to respond to ‘unsustainable’ transitions?how to respond to ‘unsustainable’ transitions?

how to deal with the ‘death’ of undesirable systems?how to deal with the ‘death’ of undesirable systems?

• persistent problems are symptoms of unsustainabilitypersistent problems are symptoms of unsustainability• persistent problems are deeply rooted in our societypersistent problems are deeply rooted in our society• persistent problems require radical system innovationspersistent problems require radical system innovations

• transition involves building up new structures andtransition involves building up new structures and

decay of existing structures decay of existing structures

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Caution 4

overly focus on technical systems and infrastructures,overly focus on technical systems and infrastructures,

is a narrow slice of a wider social systemic changeis a narrow slice of a wider social systemic change

• socio-technical case studies are different fromsocio-technical case studies are different from

transition management case studiestransition management case studies• co-evolution of institutional, cultural, demographic,co-evolution of institutional, cultural, demographic,

economic, ecological and technological determinantseconomic, ecological and technological determinants

• transition management was developed as an answertransition management was developed as an answer

to the ‘narrow’ focus of the socio-technical approach to the ‘narrow’ focus of the socio-technical approach

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Meadowcroft

abstract level of social systems as angle for tmabstract level of social systems as angle for tm

and precise orientation of those systemsand precise orientation of those systems

• persistency of system requires integrated systemspersistency of system requires integrated systems

approach at the highest system levelapproach at the highest system level• transition definition needs to be ambitious, transition definition needs to be ambitious,

challenging and concretechallenging and concrete

[ [ not ‘from carbon emitting to carbon neutral not ‘from carbon emitting to carbon neutral ]]

• divide overall theme in sub-themesdivide overall theme in sub-themes• acute political struggle partly recognized acute political struggle partly recognized

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Meadowcroft

transition management is not synonymous withtransition management is not synonymous with

governance for sustainable developmentgovernance for sustainable development

• political machinery around sustainable developmentpolitical machinery around sustainable development• Intergovernmental process [UN]Intergovernmental process [UN]• transition management not part of this transition management not part of this

• scope of transition management is limitedscope of transition management is limited• but it can be applied to regions and citiesbut it can be applied to regions and cities

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Meadowcroft

how to deal with lock-in and two-way optionshow to deal with lock-in and two-way options

• core of transition management is to experiment oncore of transition management is to experiment on

a small-scale to reduce large-scale riska small-scale to reduce large-scale risk

• ‘‘manage’ transition experimentsmanage’ transition experiments- deepeningdeepening

- broadeningbroadening

- scaling upscaling up

• transition experiments not around technology only transition experiments not around technology only

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Carbon capture and storage

‘ ‘offers no permanent solution to the climate problemoffers no permanent solution to the climate problem

but complementary to energy conservation andbut complementary to energy conservation and

sustainable energy policies’sustainable energy policies’

Platform ‘New Gas’ with working group ‘clean fossils’Platform ‘New Gas’ with working group ‘clean fossils’

positive advice on supporting ‘clean fossils’positive advice on supporting ‘clean fossils’

four project types:four project types:- CO2 capture and storage with coal/gas-fired electricityCO2 capture and storage with coal/gas-fired electricity

- storing CO2 from pure point sources such as industrystoring CO2 from pure point sources such as industry

- CO2-storage of energy generation based on coal/biomassCO2-storage of energy generation based on coal/biomass

- CO2-storage of natural gas extracted offshoreCO2-storage of natural gas extracted offshore

first ‘clean fossils’ experiment will start soonfirst ‘clean fossils’ experiment will start soon

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Carbon capture and storage

• SEC: Zero Emission Power PlantSEC: Zero Emission Power Plant• NAM: CO2-storage in a nearby natural gas fieldNAM: CO2-storage in a nearby natural gas field• NUON: CO2-separation and use in coal/biomass NUON: CO2-separation and use in coal/biomass

power plantpower plant• Gaz de France: CO2-storage in natural gas field in Gaz de France: CO2-storage in natural gas field in

North seaNorth sea

provisional scenarios have been developedprovisional scenarios have been developed

from ‘the Netherlands as CO2-hub’ till ‘clean fossilsfrom ‘the Netherlands as CO2-hub’ till ‘clean fossils

remain marginal’ remain marginal’

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International context

is transition management typical Dutch?is transition management typical Dutch?

NONO

because the underlying principles are genericbecause the underlying principles are generic

because it is ad odds with the Dutch ‘polder model’because it is ad odds with the Dutch ‘polder model’

and the consensus democracyand the consensus democracy

BUTBUT

Its application is context-specific and culturally boundIts application is context-specific and culturally bound

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Conclusions

TM is not a TM is not a megalomaniacmegalomaniac attempt to remake society attempt to remake society

TM is a new governance model for interactionsTM is a new governance model for interactions

between market, state and civil society to workbetween market, state and civil society to work

towards a sustainability transitiontowards a sustainability transition

‘‘perspective incrementalism’ for sustainabilityperspective incrementalism’ for sustainability

results are encouraging but no evidence that it worksresults are encouraging but no evidence that it works